[Value of the application of enhanced CT radiomics and machine learning in preoperative prediction of microvascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma].

Objective: To explore the value of machine learning models in preoperative prediction of microvascular invasion (MVI) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on dual-phase contrast-enhanced CT radiomics features. Methods: The data of 148 patients [106 males and 42 females, with an average age of (58±11) years] with HCC confirmed by pathology in the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 2015 to May 2020 were retrospectively analyzed, including 88 cases of positive MVI and 60 cases of negative MVI. According to the ratio of 7∶3, the patients were randomly divided into the training and validation sets, respectively. The three-dimensional (3D) radiomics features of HCC in arterial phase (AP) and portal venous phase (PP) were extracted by MaZda software, and the optimal feature subset was obtained by combining three feature selection methods (FPM method) and Lasso regression. Then, six machine learning methods were used to build the prediction models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn to evaluate the prediction ability of the aforementioned models, and the area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were calculated. Results: Radiomics features of HCC in AP and PP were extracted by MaZda software, with 239 in each phase. There were 7 optimal features in AP and 14 optimal features in PP selected by FPM method and Lasso regression, respectively. The AUCs of decision tree, extreme gradient boosting, random forest, support vector machine (SVM), generalized linear model, and neural network based on the 7 optimal features in AP in the validation set were 0.736, 0.910, 0.913, 0.915, 0.897, 0.648, respectively. The SVM had the highest AUC in the validation set, with the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of 95.35%, 95.83% and 94.74%, respectively. Likewise, the AUCs of machine learning models in prediction of MVI in HCC based on the 14 optimal features in PP in the validation set were 0.873, 0.876, 0.913, 0.859, 0.877, 0.834, respectively, and there were no significant differences (all P>0.05). The random forest had the highest AUC in the validation set, with the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of 90.70%, 87.50% and 94.74%, respectively. Conclusion: Machine learning models based on dual-phase enhanced CT radiomics features can be used in preoperative prediction of MVI in HCC, particularly the SVM and random forest models have high prediction efficiency.