[Study of the predictive role of serum HBV RNA on HBeAg serological conversion in children with chronic hepatitis B].

ABSTRACT

Objective: To investigate the role of serum hepatitis B virus RNA (HBV RNA) in predicting HBeAg serological conversion in children with chronic hepatitis B. Methods: 175 children aged 1~17 years with chronic hepatitis B who received interferon α (IFNα) for 48 weeks were selected. Patients were divided into HBeAg seroconversion and non-conversion based on whether HBeAg seroconversion occurred at 48 weeks of treatment.T-test and Mann-Whitney U test were used to compare between groups; chisquare test or Fisher exact probability method was used to compare the frequency between groups of classified variables; and Pearson correlation was used to analyze the correlation between indicators. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify influencing factors associated with HBeAg serological conversion. The predictive effect of HBV RNA, HBV DNA, and HBsAg on HBeAg serological conversion was compared and analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Results: The seroconversion rate of HBeAg at 48 weeks was 36.0% (63/175). The reduction in HBVRNA levels from baseline to the 12th, 24th, 36th, and 48th weeks of antiviral therapy was significantly greater in the HBeAg serological conversion group than that in the non-conversion group, and the difference was statistically significant between the two groups (P < 0.05). Univariate and multivariate regression analyses showed that age and a decline in HBV RNA levels at week 12 were independent predictors of HBeAg serological conversion. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of HBV RNA decline at week 12 was 0.677(95% CI∶0.549-0.806, P = 0.012), which was significantly better than the same period of AUROC of HBV DNA (0.657, 95% CI∶0.527-0.788, P = 0.025) and HBsAg (0.660, 95% CI∶0.526-0.795, P = 0.023) decline. HBV RNA levels decreased (>1.385 log10 copies/ml) at week 12, with a positive predictive value of 53.2%, a negative predictive value of 72.2%, a sensitivity of 77.4%, and a specificity of 57.9% for HBeAg seroconversion. Conclusion: HBV RNA level lowering during the 12th week of antiviral therapy can serve as an early predictor marker for HBeAg serological conversion in children with chronic hepatitis B.