Long-term exposure to high perceived temperature and risk of mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease.

ABSTRACT

Health risks due to climate change are emerging, particularly from high-temperature exposure. The perceived temperature is an equivalent temperature based on the complete heat budget model of the human body. Therefore, we aimed to analyze the effect of perceived temperature on overall mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease. In total, 32,870 patients with chronic kidney disease in Seoul participated in this retrospective study (2001-2018) at three medical centers. The perceived temperature during the summer season was calculated using meteorological factors, including the air temperature near the automated weather station, dew point temperature, wind velocity, and total cloud amount. We assessed the association between perceived temperature using Kriging spatial interpolation and mortality in patients with CKD in the time-varying Cox proportional hazards model that was adjusted for sex, age, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, estimated glomerular filtration rate, smoking, alcohol consumption, and educational level. During the 6.14 ± 3.96 years of follow-up, 3863 deaths were recorded. In multivariable analysis, the average level of perceived temperature and maximum level of perceived temperature demonstrated an increased risk of overall mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease. The concordance index for mortality of perceived temperature was higher than temperature, discomfort index, and heat index. When stratified by age, diabetes mellitus, and estimated glomerular filtration rate, patients with chronic kidney disease with young age (age <65 years) showed higher hazard ratio for mortality (interaction P = 0.049). Moreover, the risk of death in the winter and spring seasons was more significant compared to that of the summer and autumn seasons. Therefore, long-term exposure to high perceived temperature during summer increases the risk of mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease.