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Influenza H3N2 variant viruses with pandemic potential: preventing catastrophe in remote and isolated Canadian communities.
Laskowski, Marek; Duvvuri, Venkata R; Buckeridge, David L; Wu, Gillian; Wu, Jianhong; Moghadas, Seyed M.
Afiliación
  • Laskowski M; Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Prev Med ; 57(6): 910-3, 2013 Dec.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23628518
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of age-specific cross-reactive antibody protection levels on the outcomes of a pandemic outbreak of new variants of H3N2 influenza A viruses (H3N2v). METHODS: We calibrated a previously validated agent-based model of human-to-human transmission of influenza viruses to project the outcomes of various protection levels in a remote and isolated Canadian community, when demographics are drawn from the Statistics Canada census data. We then compared the outcomes with a scenario in which demographic variables were shifted to resemble an urban structure. This comparative evaluation was conducted using in-silico computer simulations, where the epidemiological data were drawn from relevant estimates in published literature. RESULTS: Simulations, using estimates of transmissibility for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic strain in the study population, show that the epidemic size is primarily affected by the cross-reactive protection levels of young children. A lower number of secondary infections at the early stages of an outbreak does not necessarily correspond to a lower epidemic size. CONCLUSIONS: Demographic variables could play a significant role in determining the outcomes of an outbreak. The findings strongly suggest that, when an H3N2v-specific vaccine becomes available, children below the age of 17 should be prioritized for vaccination. This prioritization is essential in population settings with a low average age, including aboriginal communities in northern latitudes.
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Texto completo: 1 Bases de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Gripe Humana / Subtipo H3N2 del Virus de la Influenza A / Pandemias Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies Límite: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Aged80 / Child / Child, preschool / Humans / Infant / Middle aged / Newborn País/Región como asunto: America do norte Idioma: En Revista: Prev Med Año: 2013 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Canadá

Texto completo: 1 Bases de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Gripe Humana / Subtipo H3N2 del Virus de la Influenza A / Pandemias Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies Límite: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Aged80 / Child / Child, preschool / Humans / Infant / Middle aged / Newborn País/Región como asunto: America do norte Idioma: En Revista: Prev Med Año: 2013 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Canadá