Trends in Diabetes Mortality by Gender in Urban and Rural Areas in China From 2003 to 2012: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

ABSTRACT

We aimed to provide updated estimates for the trends and the effects attributable to age, period, and cohort by gender in urban and rural areas in China. The data were based on the vital registration system in China from 2003 to 2012. The annual percentage change used Joinpoint Regression Analysis. Spline functions were fitted to the age-period-cohort analysis. The average age-adjusted diabetes mortality rate was higher in women than in men, and it was higher in urban than in rural residents among both genders. The trend analysis of diabetes showed a favorable pattern among urban residents in both genders. Mortality increased with age, and compared with period and cohort effects, age effects were the most important risk factor in diabetes mortality. Although the overall trends in diabetes mortality decelerated, aging and rural-urban differences could still be driving the epidemic underlining a continued need for the priorities for health care programs to focus on predictors in diabetes mortality.