Using space-time scan statistic for studying the effects of COVID-19 in Punjab, Pakistan: a guideline for policy measures in regional agriculture.

ABSTRACT

Pakistan is included in top 50 countries which are estimated to face serious agriculture and food deficiency related challenges due to the worldwide pandemic coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 on food supply chain and agriculture in Punjab, Pakistan, by using space-time scan statistic (STSS). A survey was conducted at 720 points in different districts of the province. The STSS detected "active" and emerging clusters that are current at the end of our study area-particularly, 17 clusters were formed while adding the updated case data. Software ArcGIS 10.3 was used to find relative risk (RR) values; the maximum RR value was found to be 42.19 and maximum observed cases 53,265 during June 15-July 1, 2020. It was not always necessary that if the number of active cases in Punjab increased, there should be higher relative risk for more number of districts and vice versa. Due to the highest number of cases of COVID-19 and RR values during July, mostly farmers faced many difficulties during the cultivation of cotton and rice. Mostly farmers (72%) observed increase in prices of inputs (fertilizers and pesticides) during lockdown. If the supply chain of agriculture related inputs is disturbed, farmers may find it quite difficult to access markets, which could result in a decline in production and sales of crops and livestock in study area. It is suggested that to protect the food security and to decrease the effect of the lockdown, Punjab government needs to review food policy and analyse how market forces will respond to the imbalanced storage facilities and capacity, supply and demand and price control of products. The findings of this study can also help policy-makers to formulate an effective food security and agriculture adaptation strategy.