Estimating incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes using prevalence data: the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study.
BMC Med Res Methodol
; 23(1): 39, 2023 02 14.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36788497
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Incidence is one of the most important epidemiologic indices in surveillance. However, determining incidence is complex and requires time-consuming cohort studies or registries with date of diagnosis. Estimating incidence from prevalence using mathematical relationships may facilitate surveillance efforts. The aim of this study was to examine whether a partial differential equation (PDE) can be used to estimate diabetes incidence from prevalence in youth.METHODS:
We used age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific estimates of prevalence in 2001 and 2009 as reported in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study. Using these data, a PDE was applied to estimate the average incidence rates of type 1 and type 2 diabetes for the period between 2001 and 2009. Estimates were compared to annual incidence rates observed in SEARCH. Precision of the estimates was evaluated using 95% bootstrap confidence intervals.RESULTS:
Despite the long period between prevalence measures, the estimated average incidence rates mirror the average of the observed annual incidence rates. Absolute values of the age-standardized sex- and type-specific mean relative errors are below 8%.CONCLUSIONS:
Incidence of diabetes can be accurately estimated from prevalence. Since only cross-sectional prevalence data is required, employing this methodology in future studies may result in considerable cost savings.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Bases de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2
Tipo de estudio:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prevalence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Adolescent
/
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMC Med Res Methodol
Asunto de la revista:
MEDICINA
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Alemania