Projections of temperature-associated mortality risks under the changing climate in an ageing society.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to project future temperature-associated mortality risk and additional deaths among Taiwan's elderly (aged >65 years) population. STUDY DESIGN: This study investigated retrospective temperature-mortality risk associations and future mortality projections. METHODS: A distributed lag non-linear model and random effect meta-analyses were employed to assess the risk of daily temperature-associated deaths in all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory diseases. Using the statistical downscaling temperature projections of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; i.e. RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), future risk of mortalities were projected among the elderly for 2030-2039, 2060-2069 and 2090-2099, with a 30%, 40% and 50% expected increase in elderly population proportions, respectively. RESULTS: The baseline analysis from 2005 to 2018 identified that Taiwan's population is more vulnerable to cold effects than heat, with the highest cold-related mortality risk being attributed to circulatory diseases, followed by all-cause and respiratory diseases. However, future projections suggest a declining trend in cold-related mortalities and a significant rise in heat-related mortalities under different RCP scenarios. Heat-attributable mortalities under the RCP8.5 scenario by 2090-2099 would account for almost 170,360, 36,557 and 29,386 additional annual deaths among the elderly due to all-cause, circulatory and respiratory diseases, respectively. Heat-attributable all-cause mortalities among the elderly would increase by 3%, 11% and 30% under RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively, by 2090-2099. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study provide predictions on future temperature-related mortality among the elderly in a developed, ageing society with a hot and humid climate. The results from this study can guide public health interventions and policies for climate change and ageing society-associated health risks.