A risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease without cirrhosis: HCC prediction for non-cirrhotic NAFLD.
Liver Int
; 44(3): 738-748, 2024 Mar.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38110797
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND & AIMS:
Although non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is becoming a leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), HCC risk in non-cirrhotic NAFLD received little attention. We aimed to develop and validate an HCC risk prediction model for non-cirrhotic NAFLD.METHODS:
A nationwide cohort of non-cirrhotic NAFLD patients in Korea was recruited to develop a risk prediction model and validate it internally (n = 409 088). A model using a simplified point system was developed by Cox proportional hazard model. K-fold cross-validation assessed the accuracy, discrimination and calibration. The model was validated externally using a hospital cohort from Asan Medical Center (n = 8721).RESULTS:
An 11-point HCC risk prediction model for non-cirrhotic NAFLD was developed using six independent factors of age, sex, diabetes, obesity, serum alanine aminotransferase level and gamma-glutamyl transferase level (c-index 0.75). The average area under receiver operating curves (AUROCs) of the model was 0.72 at 5 years and 0.75 at 10 years. In the external validation cohort, the AUROCs were 0.79 [95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59-0.95] at 5 years and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.73-0.94) at 10 years. The calibration plots showed the expected risks corresponded well with the observed risks. Risk stratification categorized patients into the low (score 0-6), moderate (7, 8) and high (9-11; estimated incidence rate >0.2%/year) risk groups.CONCLUSIONS:
A novel HCC risk prediction model for non-cirrhotic NAFLD patients was developed and validated with fair performance. The model is expected to serve as a simple and reliable tool to assess HCC risk and assist precision screening of HCC.Palabras clave
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Bases de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Carcinoma Hepatocelular
/
Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico
/
Neoplasias Hepáticas
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Liver Int
Asunto de la revista:
GASTROENTEROLOGIA
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article