Risk prediction of major cardiac adverse events and all-cause death following covid-19 hospitalization at one year follow-up: The HOPE-2 score.
Eur J Intern Med
; 124: 108-114, 2024 Jun.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38472045
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Long-term consequences of COVID-19 are still partly known. AIM OF THE STUDY To derive a clinical score for risk prediction of long-term major cardiac adverse events (MACE) and all cause death in COVID-19 hospitalized patients.METHODS:
2573 consecutive patients were enrolled in a multicenter, international registry (HOPE-2) from January 2020 to April 2021 and identified as the derivation cohort. Five hundred and twenty-six patients from the Cardio-Covid-Italy registry were considered as external validation cohort. A long-term prognostic risk score for MACE and all cause death was derived from a multivariable regression model.RESULTS:
Out of 2573 patients enrolled in the HOPE-2 registry, 1481 (58 %) were male, with mean age of 60±16 years. At long-term follow-up, the overall rate of patients affected by MACE and/or all cause death was 7.8 %. After multivariable regression analysis, independent predictors of MACE and all cause death were identified. The HOPE-2 prognostic score was therefore calculated by giving 1-4 points for age class (<65 years, 65-74, 75-84, ≥85), 3 points for history of cardiovascular disease, 1 point for hypertension, 3 points for increased troponin serum levels at admission and 2 points for acute renal failure during hospitalization. Score accuracy at ROC curve analysis was 0.79 (0.74 at external validation). Stratification into 3 risk groups (<3, 3-6, >6 points) classified patients into low, intermediate and high risk. The observed MACE and all-cause death rates were 1.9 %, 9.4 % and 26.3 % for low- intermediate and high-risk patients, respectively (Log-rank test p < 0.01).CONCLUSIONS:
The HOPE-2 prognostic score may be useful for long-term risk stratification in patients with previous COVID-19 hospitalization. High-risk patients may require a strict follow-up.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Bases de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Enfermedades Cardiovasculares
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Sistema de Registros
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COVID-19
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Hospitalización
Límite:
Aged
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Aged80
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
País/Región como asunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Eur J Intern Med
Asunto de la revista:
MEDICINA INTERNA
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Italia