Estimating scenarios for survival time in patients with advanced melanoma receiving immunotherapy and targeted therapy.
Oncologist
; 2024 May 20.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38768122
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
We aim to provide survival scenario estimates for patients with advanced melanoma starting targeted therapies and immunotherapies. MATERIALS ANDMETHODS:
We sought randomized trials of targeted therapies and immunotherapies for advanced melanoma and recorded the following percentiles (represented survival scenario) from each overall survival (OS) curve 90th (worst-case), 75th (lower-typical), 50th (median), 25th (upper-typical), and 10th (best-case). We tested whether these scenarios can be estimated for each OS curve by multiplying its median by 4 multiples 0.25 (worst-case), 0.5 (lower-typical), 2 (upper-typical), and 3 (best-case).RESULTS:
We identified 15 trials with 8025 patients. For first-line combination targeted therapy treatment groups, the median (interquartile range, IQR) in months for each percentile was 90th, 6.2 (6.0-6.5); 75th, 11.3 (11.3-11.4); and median, 24.4 (23.5-25.3). For the first-line combination immunotherapy treatment group, the percentiles in months were 90th, 3.9 (2.8-4.5); 75th, 13.4 (10.1-15.4), median 73 (not applicable). In targeted therapy groups, simple multiples of the median OS were accurate for estimating the 90th percentile in 80%; 75th percentile in 40%; 25th percentile in 100%. In immunotherapy groups, these multiples were accurate at 0% for the 90th percentile, and 43% for the 75th percentile. The 90th percentile (worst-case scenario) was better estimated as 1/6× median OS, and the 75th percentile (lower-typical) as 1/3× median OS.CONCLUSIONS:
Simple multiples of the median OS are a useful framework to estimate scenarios for survival for patients receiving targeted therapies, not immunotherapy. Longer follow-up is required to estimate upper-typical and best-case scenarios.
Texto completo:
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Bases de datos:
MEDLINE
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Oncologist
Asunto de la revista:
NEOPLASIAS
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Canadá