[The morbidity and mortality trend and prediction of lung cancer in residents of Nangang District of Harbin in China during the past 10 years].

BACKGROUND: It is not clear yet about the secular changes of morbidity and mortality trend of lung cancer in residents of Nangang District of Harbin in China. The aim of this study is to estimate the trend of lung cancer morbidity and mortality in residents of Nangang District from 1992 to 2001 and to predict their levels in the future 5 years. METHODS: Data were collected from the annual statistic reports on cancer death cause from Nangang District in Harbin. The classification of death cause was made according to the ICD-9. Predictions about morbidity and mortality were made by the gray system GM(1,1). RESULTS: During the past 10 years, the morbidity and mortality of lung cancer were placed in uptrend slowly. The average morbidity and mortality of lung cancer were 44.75 per 100000 and 41.37 per 100000 respectively, and lung cancer was the first leading cancer for both episode and death of malignant tumors. The proportions of lung cancer were 25.91% and 33.29% for episode and death in all malignant tumors respectively. A half patients with lung cancer was 20-64 years old. Predictive morbidity and mortality of lung cancer would be 47.79/100000 and 44.81/100000 for men and 45.80/100000 and 42.02/100000 for women respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The morbidity and mortality of lung cancer show a slowly increasing trend. Lung cancer is one of main malignant tumors among people of 20-64 years old. The gradually aging population, environmental pollution and individual unhealthy living habits are the important factors of lung cancer increasing.