Tracking and risk of abdominal obesity in the adolescence period in children aged 7-15. The Cracow Longitudinal Growth Study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the tracking of abdominal fat distribution from the age of 7 to 15 years and to estimate the risk of abdominal obesity at 15 based on the occurrence of abdominal obesity at the ages 7-14 years in boys and girls. METHODS: The analysis was performed on 8-year longitudinal measurements of 315 boys and 198 girls from Cracow, Poland. The stability of waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) got assessed by inter-age correlations. The degree of abdominal fatness continuation level was evaluated applying contingency tables with the χ² test based on quartiles of WC and WHtR distribution. The risk of abdominal obesity at 15 was estimated using odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: Inter-age correlations between the 7(th) and 15(th) years were 0.73 and 0.67 in boys and 0.48 and 0.48 in girls for WC and WHtR, respectively. More than 51% girls and 62% boys with abdominal fat distribution at 7 remained in the same category in adolescence period, while only 2% of them moved to the thin category at 15. The risk of abdominal obesity (WHtR) was highest in boys and girls with abdominal obesity at 7 (OR = 5.46 and OR = 6.19, respectively) and, additionally, in girls at 12 (OR = 5.59). CONCLUSION: The risk of abdominal obesity was indicated already at 7 in boys and girls. Continuation of the abdominal fat distribution confirmed in about 60% acknowledges that the type of fat distribution seems to be determined as early as in the 7-year-olds.