Delay in booster schedule as a control parameter in vaccination dynamics.
J Math Biol
; 79(6-7): 2157-2182, 2019 12.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31494722
ABSTRACT
The use of multiple vaccine doses has proven to be essential in providing high levels of protection against a number of vaccine-preventable diseases at the individual level. However, the effectiveness of vaccination at the population level depends on several key factors, including the dose-dependent protection efficacy of vaccine, coverage of primary and booster doses, and in particular, the timing of a booster dose. For vaccines that provide transient protection, the optimal scheduling of a booster dose remains an important component of immunization programs and could significantly affect the long-term disease dynamics. In this study, we developed a vaccination model as a system of delay differential equations to investigate the effect of booster schedule using a control parameter represented by a fixed time-delay. By exploring the stability analysis of the model based on its reproduction number, we show the disease persistence in scenarios where the booster dose is sub-optimally scheduled. The findings indicate that, depending on the protection efficacy of primary vaccine series and the coverage of booster vaccination, the time-delay in a booster schedule can be a determining factor in disease persistence or elimination. We present model results with simulations for a vaccine-preventable bacterial disease, Heamophilus influenzae serotype b, using parameter estimates from the previous literature. Our study highlights the importance of timelines for multiple-dose vaccination in order to enhance the population-wide benefits of herd immunity.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Bases de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Vacinação em Massa
/
Modelos Estatísticos
/
Imunização Secundária
/
Vacinas Anti-Haemophilus
/
Infecções por Haemophilus
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Math Biol
Ano de publicação:
2019
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Canadá