Ten-year projection of white-nose syndrome disease dynamics at the southern leading-edge of infection in North America.
Proc Biol Sci
; 288(1952): 20210719, 2021 06 09.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34074117
ABSTRACT
Predicting the emergence and spread of infectious diseases is critical for the effective conservation of biodiversity. White-nose syndrome (WNS), an emerging infectious disease of bats, has resulted in high mortality in eastern North America. Because the fungal causative agent Pseudogymnoascus destructans is constrained by temperature and humidity, spread dynamics may vary by geography. Environmental conditions in the southern part of the continent are different than the northeast, where disease dynamics are typically studied, making it difficult to predict how the disease will manifest. Herein, we modelled WNS pathogen spread in Texas based on cave densities and average dispersal distances of hosts, projecting these results out to 10 years. We parameterized a predictive model of WNS epidemiology and its effects on bat populations with observed cave environmental data. Our model suggests that bat populations in northern Texas will be more affected by WNS mortality than southern Texas. As such, we recommend prioritizing the preservation of large overwintering colonies of bats in north Texas through management actions. Our model illustrates that infectious disease spread and infectious disease severity can become uncoupled over a gradient of environmental variation and highlight the importance of understanding host, pathogen and environmental conditions across a breadth of environments.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Bases de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Ascomicetos
/
Quirópteros
/
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes
/
Hibernação
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Proc Biol Sci
Assunto da revista:
BIOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos