Bayesian calibration of a stochastic, multiscale agent-based model for predicting in vitro tumor growth.
PLoS Comput Biol
; 17(11): e1008845, 2021 11.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34843457
ABSTRACT
Hybrid multiscale agent-based models (ABMs) are unique in their ability to simulate individual cell interactions and microenvironmental dynamics. Unfortunately, the high computational cost of modeling individual cells, the inherent stochasticity of cell dynamics, and numerous model parameters are fundamental limitations of applying such models to predict tumor dynamics. To overcome these challenges, we have developed a coarse-grained two-scale ABM (cgABM) with a reduced parameter space that allows for an accurate and efficient calibration using a set of time-resolved microscopy measurements of cancer cells grown with different initial conditions. The multiscale model consists of a reaction-diffusion type model capturing the spatio-temporal evolution of glucose and growth factors in the tumor microenvironment (at tissue scale), coupled with a lattice-free ABM to simulate individual cell dynamics (at cellular scale). The experimental data consists of BT474 human breast carcinoma cells initialized with different glucose concentrations and tumor cell confluences. The confluence of live and dead cells was measured every three hours over four days. Given this model, we perform a time-dependent global sensitivity analysis to identify the relative importance of the model parameters. The subsequent cgABM is calibrated within a Bayesian framework to the experimental data to estimate model parameters, which are then used to predict the temporal evolution of the living and dead cell populations. To this end, a moment-based Bayesian inference is proposed to account for the stochasticity of the cgABM while quantifying uncertainties due to limited temporal observational data. The cgABM reduces the computational time of ABM simulations by 93% to 97% while staying within a 3% difference in prediction compared to ABM. Additionally, the cgABM can reliably predict the temporal evolution of breast cancer cells observed by the microscopy data with an average error and standard deviation for live and dead cells being 7.61±2.01 and 5.78±1.13, respectively.
Texto completo:
1
Bases de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Análise de Sistemas
/
Neoplasias da Mama
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Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Female
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Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
PLoS Comput Biol
Assunto da revista:
BIOLOGIA
/
INFORMATICA MEDICA
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos