Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia.
Nat Commun
; 13(1): 4124, 2022 07 15.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35840591
ABSTRACT
Climate projections are essential for decision-making but contain non-negligible uncertainty. To reduce projection uncertainty over Asia, where half the world's population resides, we develop emergent constraint relationships between simulated temperature (1970-2014) and precipitation (2015-2100) growth rates using 27 CMIP6 models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here we show that, with uncertainty successfully narrowed by 12.1-31.0%, constrained future precipitation growth rates are 0.39 ± 0.18 mm year-1 (29.36 mm °C-1, SSP126), 0.70 ± 0.22 mm year-1 (20.03 mm °C-1, SSP245), 1.10 ± 0.33 mm year-1 (17.96 mm °C-1, SSP370) and 1.42 ± 0.35 mm year-1 (17.28 mm °C-1, SSP585), indicating overestimates of 6.0-14.0% by the raw CMIP6 models. Accordingly, future temperature and total evaporation growth rates are also overestimated by 3.4-11.6% and -2.1-13.0%, respectively. The slower warming implies a lower snow cover loss rate by 10.5-40.2%. Overall, we find the projected increase in future water availability is overestimated by CMIP6 over Asia.
Texto completo:
1
Bases de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Mudança Climática
/
Água
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nat Commun
Assunto da revista:
BIOLOGIA
/
CIENCIA
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China