Epidemic spreading under mutually independent intra- and inter-host pathogen evolution.
Nat Commun
; 13(1): 6218, 2022 10 20.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36266285
The dynamics of epidemic spreading is often reduced to the single control parameter R0 (reproduction-rate), whose value, above or below unity, determines the state of the contagion. If, however, the pathogen evolves as it spreads, R0 may change over time, potentially leading to a mutation-driven spread, in which an initially sub-pandemic pathogen undergoes a breakthrough mutation. To predict the boundaries of this pandemic phase, we introduce here a modeling framework to couple the inter-host network spreading patterns with the intra-host evolutionary dynamics. We find that even in the extreme case when these two process are driven by mutually independent selection forces, mutations can still fundamentally alter the pandemic phase-diagram. The pandemic transitions, we show, are now shaped, not just by R0, but also by the balance between the epidemic and the evolutionary timescales. If mutations are too slow, the pathogen prevalence decays prior to the appearance of a critical mutation. On the other hand, if mutations are too rapid, the pathogen evolution becomes volatile and, once again, it fails to spread. Between these two extremes, however, we identify a broad range of conditions in which an initially sub-pandemic pathogen can breakthrough to gain widespread prevalence.
Texto completo:
1
Bases de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Epidemias
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nat Commun
Assunto da revista:
BIOLOGIA
/
CIENCIA
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China