Prognostic value of tumor-to-parenchymal contrast enhancement ratio on portal venous-phase CT in pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of tumor-to-parenchymal contrast enhancement ratio on portal venous-phase CT (CER on PVP) and compare its prognostic performance to prevailing grading and staging systems in pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (PanNENs). METHODS: In this retrospective study, data on 465 patients (development cohort) who underwent upfront curative-intent resection for PanNEN were used to assess the performance of CER on PVP and tumor size measured by CT (CT-Size) in predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) using Harrell's C-index and to determine their optimal cutoffs to stratify RFS using a multi-way partitioning algorithm. External data on 184 patients (test cohort) were used to validate the performance of CER on PVP in predicting RFS and overall survival (OS) and compare its predictive performance with those of CT-Size, 2019 World Health Organization classification system (WHO), and the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system (AJCC). RESULTS: In the test cohort, CER on PVP showed C-indexes of 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74-0.91) and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.73-0.95) for predicting RFS and OS, respectively, which were higher than those for the WHO (C-index: 0.73 for RFS [p = .002] and 0.72 for OS [p = .004]) and AJCC (C-index, 0.67 for RFS [p = .002] and 0.58 for OS [p = .002]). CT-Size obtained C-indexes of 0.71 for RFS and 0.61 for OS. CONCLUSIONS: CER on PVP showed superior predictive performance on postoperative survival in PanNEN than current grading and staging systems, indicating its potential as a noninvasive preoperative prognostic tool. KEY POINTS: • In pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms, the tumor-to-parenchymal enhancement ratio on portal venous-phase CT (CER on PVP) showed acceptable predictive performance of postoperative outcomes. • CER on PVP showed superior predictive performance of postoperative survival over the current WHO classification and AJCC staging system.