Challenges in predicting future high-cost patients for care management interventions.

BACKGROUND: To test the accuracy of a segmentation approach using claims data to predict Medicare beneficiaries most likely to be hospitalized in a subsequent year. METHODS: This article uses a 100-percent sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2017 to 2018. This analysis is designed to illustrate the actuarial limitations of person-centered risk segmentation by looking at the number and rate of hospitalizations for progressively narrower segments of heart failure patients and a national fee-for-service comparison group. Cohorts are defined using 2017 data and then 2018 hospitalization rates are shown graphically. RESULTS: As the segments get narrower, the 2018 hospitalization rates increased, but the percentage of total Medicare FFS hospitalizations accounted for went down. In all three segments and the total Medicare FFS population, more than half of all patients did not have a hospitalization in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: With the difficulty of identifying future high utilizing beneficiaries, health systems should consider the addition of clinician input and 'light touch' monitoring activities to improve the prediction of high-need, high-cost cohorts. It may also be beneficial to develop systemic strategies to manage utilization and steer beneficiaries to efficient providers rather than targeting individual patients.