Reconstructing 120 years of climate change impacts on Joshua tree flowering.
Ecol Lett
; 27(8): e14478, 2024 Aug.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-39092581
ABSTRACT
Quantifying how global change impacts wild populations remains challenging, especially for species poorly represented by systematic datasets. Here, we infer climate change effects on masting by Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana), keystone perennials of the Mojave Desert, from 15 years of crowdsourced observations. We annotated phenophase in 10,212 geo-referenced images of Joshua trees on the iNaturalist crowdsourcing platform, and used them to train machine learning models predicting flowering from annual weather records. Hindcasting to 1900 with a trained model successfully recovers flowering events in independent historical records and reveals a slightly rising frequency of conditions supporting flowering since the early 20th Century. This reflects increased variation in annual precipitation, which drives masting events in wet years-but also increasing temperatures and drought stress, which may have net negative impacts on recruitment. Our findings reaffirm the value of crowdsourcing for understanding climate change impacts on biodiversity.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Bases de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Mudança Climática
/
Flores
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Ecol Lett
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos