Can we predict the burden of acute malnutrition in crisis-affected countries? Findings from Somalia and South Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Sample surveys are the mainstay of surveillance for acute malnutrition in settings affected by crises but are burdensome and have limited geographical coverage due to insecurity and other access issues. As a possible complement to surveys, we explored a statistical approach to predict the prevalent burden of acute malnutrition for small population strata in two crisis-affected countries, Somalia (2014-2018) and South Sudan (2015-2018). METHODS: For each country, we sourced datasets generated by humanitarian actors or other entities on insecurity, displacement, food insecurity, access to services, epidemic occurrence and other factors on the causal pathway to malnutrition. We merged these with datasets of sample household anthropometric surveys done at administrative level 3 (district, county) as part of nutritional surveillance, and, for each of several outcomes including binary and continuous indices based on either weight-for-height or middle-upper-arm circumference, fitted and evaluated the predictive performance of generalised linear models and, as an alternative, machine learning random forests. RESULTS: We developed models based on 85 ground surveys in Somalia and 175 in South Sudan. Livelihood type, armed conflict intensity, measles incidence, vegetation index and water price were important predictors in Somalia, and livelihood, measles incidence, rainfall and terms of trade (purchasing power) in South Sudan. However, both generalised linear models and random forests had low performance for both binary and continuous anthropometric outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive models had disappointing performance and are not usable for action. The range of data used and their quality probably limited our analysis. The predictive approach remains theoretically attractive and deserves further evaluation with larger datasets across multiple settings.

Childhood Stunting and Wasting Following Independence in South Sudan.

BACKGROUND: South Sudan has experienced ongoing civil and environmental problems since gaining independence in 2011 that may influence childhood nutritional status. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of undernutrition among children in South Sudan in 2018 and 2019 compared to the prevalence in 2010. METHODS: Data on height and weight were collected using a 2-stage stratified sample framework in which households were randomly selected at the county level and nutritional status was calculated for all children under 5 years of age to determine height-for-age, weight-for-height, and weight-for-age Z-scores (HAZ, WHZ, and WAZ) and the prevalence of stunting, wasting, and underweight. Linear and logistic regression analyses were used to determine factors associated with nutritional status and the odds ratio for nutritional outcomes. RESULTS: In 2010, the mean HAZ, WHZ, and WAZ was -0.78, -0.82, and -1.15, respectively, and the prevalence of stunting, wasting, and underweight was 30%, 23%, and 32%, respectively. In 2018 and 2019, the mean HAZ, WHZ, and WAZ was -0.50, -0.70, -0.77 and -0.53, -0.77, -0.76, respectively. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, and underweight in 2018 and 2019 was 17%, 14%, 15% and 16%, 16%, 17%, respectively. Age was negatively associated with all nutritional indices and girls had higher HAZ, WHZ, and WAZ and a lower mid upper arm circumference (P < .01) compared to boys. The risk of poor nutritional outcomes was associated with vaccine status and varied by state of residence. CONCLUSIONS: Following independence in 2010, the prevalence of undernutrition in South Sudan decreased, but the risk for undernutrition varied by state and efforts to address food security and health need to ensure equitable access for all children in South Sudan.

A Review of Vitamin A Supplementation in South Sudan: Successes, Challenges, and Opportunities for the Way Forward.

AIM: To identify vitamin A supplementation (VAS) trends in South Sudan and provide insights to refocus VAS programming vis a vis polio eradication campaigns recently phased out while access to health care, land, food, and markets remain challenging. METHOD: Review of data from survey and coverage reports; review of policy and program documents; key informant responses; general literature search. RESULTS: Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) is likely a severe public health problem among preschool-aged children in South Sudan based on a high under-5 mortality rate (96.2 deaths/1,000 live births) and high levels of undernutrition, infections, and food insecurity. Vitamin A capsules, with deworming tablets (VASD), have been delivered to preschool-aged children during national immunization days (NIDs) for the past decade. Although areas of South Sudan and certain populations continue to have low VAS coverage, when comparing national VAS coverage (reported in the last 6 months) between 2010 and August 2019, a large improvement is noted from 4% to 76%. In 2021, VAS coverage was more than 90% at the national level during 2 stand-alone distribution campaigns. Deworming coverage trends generally mimicked VAS coverage. VAS is provided to postpartum mothers who deliver at health facilities (approximately 12%-25%), but coverage data are not available. CONCLUSION: Twice-yearly VAS should remain a key lifesaving intervention to address VAD, but alternative delivery strategies will be needed. Conducting events, such as child health days, supported by promotional activities or community-based VASD distribution activities for the youngest children and those missed during campaigns, should be considered. For the long term, a hybrid approach targeting underserved areas with mass distribution events while integrating VASD into community-based programs such as quarterly screening for wasting should be tested further and gradually scaled up everywhere as this has the potential to sustainably reach all vulnerable children twice yearly.

Assessing the Impact of Integrated Community-Based Management of Severe Wasting Programs in Conflict-Stricken South Sudan: A Multi-Dimensional Approach to Scalability of Nutrition Emergency Response Programs.

Community-based management of severe wasting (CMSW) programs have solely focused on exit outcome indicators, often omitting data on nutrition emergency preparedness and scalability. This study aimed to document good practices and generate evidence on the effectiveness and scalability of CMSW programs to guide future nutrition interventions in South Sudan. A total of 69 CMSW program implementation documents and policies were authenticated and retained for analysis, complemented with the analyses of aggregated secondary data obtained over five (2016-2020 for CMSW program performance) to six (wasting prevention) years (2014-2019). Findings suggest a strong and harmonised coordination of CMSW program implementation, facilitated timely and with quality care through an integrated and harmonised multi-agency and multidisciplinary approach. There were challenges to the institutionalisation and ownership of CMSW programs: a weak health system, fragile health budget that relied on external assistance, and limited opportunities for competency-based learning and knowledge transfer. Between 2014 and 2019, the prevalence of wasting fluctuated according to the agricultural cycle and remained above the emergency threshold of 15% during the July to August lean season. However, during the same period, under-five and crude mortality rates (10,000/day) declined respectively from 1.17 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.91, 1.43) and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.75, 1.25) to 0.57 (95% CI: 0.38, 0.76) and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.39, 0.70). Both indicators remained below the emergency thresholds, hence suggesting that the emergency response was under control. Over a five-year period (2016-2020), a total of 1,105,546 children (52% girls, 48% boys) were admitted to CMSW programs. The five-year pooled performance indicators (mean [standard deviations]) was 86.4 (18.9%) for recovery, 2.1 (7.8%) for deaths, 5.2 (10.3%) for defaulting, 1.7 (5.7%) for non-recovery, 4.6 (13.5%) for medical transfers, 2.2 (4.7%) for relapse, 3.3 (15.0) g/kg/day for weight gain velocity, and 6.7 (3.7) weeks for the length of stay in the program. In conclusion, all key performance indicators, except the weight gain velocity, met or exceeded the Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response. Our findings demonstrate the possibility of implementing robust and resilient CMSAM programs in protracted conflict environments, informed by global guidelines and protocols. They also depict challenges to institutionalisation and ownership.