Future Burden of Ischemic Stroke in Australia: Impact on Health Outcomes between 2019 and 2038.

BACKGROUND: Projections of the future burden of ischemic stroke (IS) has not been extensively reported for the Australian population; the availability of such data would assist in health policy planning, clinical guideline updates, and public health. METHODS: First, we estimated the lifetime risk of IS (from age 40 to 100 years) using a multistate life table model. Second, a dynamic multistate model was constructed to project the burden of IS for the whole Australian population aged between 40 and 100 years over a 20-year period (2019-2038). Data for the study were primarily sourced from a large, representative Victorian linked dataset based on the Victorian Admitted Episode Dataset and National Death Index. The model projected prevalent and incident cases of nonfatal IS, fatal IS, and years of life lived (YLL) with and without IS. The YLL outcome was discounted by 5% annually; we varied the discounting rate in scenario analyses. RESULTS: The lifetime risk of IS from age 40 years was estimated as 15.5% for males and 14.0% for females in 2018. From 2019 to 2038, 644,208 Australians were projected to develop incident IS (564,922 nonfatal and 79,287 fatal). By 2038, the model projected there would be 358,534 people with prevalent IS, 35,554 people with incident nonfatal IS and 5,338 people with fatal IS, a 14.2% (44,535), 72.9% (14,988), and 106.3% (2,751) increase compared to 2019 estimations, respectively. Projected YLL (with a 5% discount rate) accrued by the Australian population were 174,782,672 (84,251,360 in males and 90,531,312 in females), with 4,053,794 YLL among people with IS (2,320,513 in males, 1,733,281 in females). CONCLUSION: The burden of IS was projected to increase between 2019 and 2038 in Australia. The outcomes of the model provide important information for decision-makers to design strategies to reduce stroke burden.

Current and Future Cost Burden of Ischemic Stroke in Australia: Dynamic Model.

BACKGROUND: Stroke remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Australia. The objective of this study was to estimate the current and future cost burden of ischemic stroke (IS) in Australia. METHOD: First, chronic management costs following IS were derived for all people aged ≥ 30 years discharged from a public or private hospital in Victoria, Australia between July 2012 and June 2017 (n = 34 471). These costs were then used to project total costs following IS (combination of acute event and chronic management cost) over a 20-year period (2019-2038) for people aged between 30 and 99 years in Australia using a dynamic multistate lifetable model. Data for the dynamic model were sourced from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset (VAED) and supplemented with other published data. RESULT: The estimated annual total chronic management cost following IS was 13 525 Australian dollars (AUD) per person (95%CI: AUD 13 380, AUD 13 670) for cohorts in the VAED between July 2012 and June 2017. The annual chronic management cost was estimated to decline following IS. The highest cost was incurred in the first year of follow-up post-IS (AUD 14 309 per person) and declined to AUD 9 776 in the sixth year of follow-up post-IS. The total healthcare cost for people aged 30-99 years was projected to be AUD 47.7 billion (95% UI: AUD 44.6 billion, AUD 51.0 billion) over the 20-year period (2019-2038) Australia-wide, of which 91.3% (AUD 43.6 billion) was attributed to chronic management costs and the remaining 8.7% (AUD 4.2 billion) were due to acute IS events. CONCLUSION: IS has and will continue to have a considerable financial impact in the next two decades on the Australian healthcare system. Our estimated and projected cost burden following IS provides important information for decision making in relation to IS.

Molecular characterization of carbapenemase and extended spectrum beta-lactamase producing Acinetobacter baumannii isolates causing surgical site infections in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Acinetobacter baumannii is an opportunistic pathogen that can cause a variety of nosocomial infections in humans. This study aimed to molecularly characterize extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) producing and carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter species isolated from surgical site infections (SSI). METHODS: A multicentre cross-sectional study was performed among SSI patients at four hospitals located in Northern, Southern, Southwest, and Central parts of Ethiopia. The isolates were identified by microbiological methods and matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). Antibiotic susceptibility was determined using disk diffusion. The presence of phenotypic ESBL and carbapenemase production was detected by employing standard microbiological tests, including combined disk diffusion (CDT). ESBL and carbapenem resistance determinants genes were studied by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequencing. RESULTS: A total of 8.7% Acinetobacter species were identified from 493 culture-positive isolates out of 752 SSI wounds. The species identified by MALDI-TOF MS were 88.4% A. baumannii, 4.7% Acinetobacter pittii, 4.7% Acinetobacter soli, and 2.3% Acinetobacter lactucae. Of all isolates 93% were positive for ESBL enzymes according to the CDT. Using whole genome sequencing 62.8% of the A. baumannii harbored one or more beta-lactamase genes, and 46.5% harbored one or more carbapenemase producing genes. The distribution of beta-lactamases among Acinetobacter species by hospitals was 53.8%, 64.3%, 75%, and 75% at JUSH, TASH, DTCSH, and HUCSH respectively. Among ESBL genes, blaCTX-M alleles were detected in 21.4% of isolates; of these 83.3% were blaCTX-M-15. The predominant carbapenemase gene of blaOXA type was detected in 24 carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii followed by blaNDM alleles carried in 12 A. baumannii with blaNDM-1 as the most common. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of Acinetobacter species that produce metallobetalactamases (MBLs) and ESBLs that were found in this study is extremely scary and calls for strict infection prevention and control procedures in health facilities helps to set effective antibiotics stewardship.

Substitution of a Traditional Face-to-Face Workshop With Virtual Escape Room in Higher Education: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Online education games are gaining ground in health profession education, yet there is limited literature on its costs. This study is an economic evaluation of the substitution of a face-to-face (F2F) workshop with an online escape room game teaching the same content. METHODS: A traditional F2F workshop on hepatitis management was conducted with 364 students in 2021 and was compared with a virtual self-run escape room game called Hepatitiscape™, which was used by 417 students in 2022. The outcomes were final examination and objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) scores for hepatitis stations. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was used to compare costs and outcomes. Student perceptions of the delivery of Hepatitiscape™ were also captured using an online questionnaire. RESULTS: Delivering the hepatitis case workshop via Hepatitiscape™ yielded an additional 4.77% increase in the final examination score and a 21.04% increase in the OSCE score at an additional cost of AUD $4212 in the first year compared with F2F delivery. This equated to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of AUD 883 per additional score of final examination and AUD 200 per additional score of OSCE for hepatitis stations. Hepatitiscape™ became cost saving from the second year onward. Student perception data revealed their recall of content was higher owing to the iterative design of the gaming elements. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitiscape™ is likely to be a cost-effective strategy to deliver workshops that are routinely delivered F2F to test knowledge-based constructs. In addition, virtual gaming has a logistical advantage over F2F delivery in that it enhances student participation from remote locations and allows for better control and flexibility of content delivery with increasing or decreasing cohort sizes, and can have potential long-term sustainable savings.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Strategies for Familial Hypercholesterolaemia: An Updated Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to systematically synthesise the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies to detect heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH). METHODS: We searched seven databases from inception to 2 February , 2023, for eligible cost-effective analysis (CEA) that evaluated screening strategies for FH versus the standard care for FH detection. Independent reviewers performed the screening, data extraction and quality evaluation. Cost results were adapted to 2022 US dollars (US$) to facilitate comparisons between studies using the same screening strategies. Cost-effectiveness thresholds were based on the original study criteria. RESULTS: A total of 21 studies evaluating 62 strategies were included in this review, most of the studies (95%) adopted a healthcare perspective in the base case, and majority were set in high-income countries. Strategies analysed included cascade screening (23 strategies), opportunistic screening (13 strategies), systematic screening (11 strategies) and population-wide screening (15 strategies). Most of the strategies relied on genetic diagnosis for case ascertainment. The most common comparator was no screening, but some studies compared the proposed strategy versus current screening strategies or versus the best next alternative. Six studies evaluated screening in children while the remaining were targeted at adults. From a healthcare perspective, cascade screening was cost-effective in 78% of the studies [cost-adapted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) ranged from dominant to 2022 US$ 104,877], opportunistic screening in 85% (ICERs from US$4959 to US$41,705), systematic screening in 80% (ICERs from US$2763 to US$69,969) and population-wide screening in 60% (ICERs from US$1484 to US$223,240). The most common driver of ICER identified in the sensitivity analysis was the long-term cost of lipid-lowering treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Based on reported willingness to pay thresholds for each setting, most CEA studies concluded that screening for FH compared with no screening was cost-effective, regardless of the screening strategy. Cascade screening resulted in the largest health benefits per person tested.

Antimicrobial susceptibility in Neisseria gonorrhoeae and epidemiological data of gonorrhoea patients in five cities across Ethiopia, 2021-22.

Introduction: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Neisseria gonorrhoeae is a global public health concern and enhanced global gonococcal AMR surveillance is imperative. As in many African countries, regular, representative and quality-assured gonococcal AMR is lacking in Ethiopia. We describe the AMR in gonococcal isolates from five cities across Ethiopia, 2021-22, and patient epidemiological data. Methods: Urethral discharge from males and cervical discharge from females were collected from October 2021 to September 2022. Epidemiological data were collected using a questionnaire. MIC determination (ETEST; eight antimicrobials) was performed on gonococcal isolates and EUCAST breakpoints (v13.1) were used. Results: From 1142 urogenital swab samples, 299 species-identified gonococcal isolates were identified; 78.3% were from males and 21.7% from females. The median age for males and females was 25 and 23 years, respectively. Most isolates (61.2%) were identified in Addis Ababa, followed by Gondar (11.4%), Adama (10.4%), Bahir Dar (10.0%) and Jimma (7.0%). The resistance level to ciprofloxacin, tetracycline and benzylpenicillin was 97.0%, 97.0% and 87.6%, respectively, and 87.6% of isolates were producing ß-lactamase. All isolates were susceptible to ceftriaxone, cefixime, azithromycin and spectinomycin. Recommended therapy [ceftriaxone (250 mg) plus azithromycin (1 g)] was used for 84.2% of patients. Conclusions: We present the first national quality-assured gonococcal AMR data from Ethiopia. Resistance levels to ciprofloxacin, tetracycline and benzylpenicillin were exceedingly high. However, all isolates were susceptible to ceftriaxone, cefixime, azithromycin and spectinomycin. In Ethiopia, it is essential to strengthen the gonococcal AMR surveillance by including further epidemiological data, more isolates from different cities, and WGS.

Molecular Epidemiology of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus among Patients Diagnosed with Surgical Site Infection at Four Hospitals in Ethiopia.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a common cause of severe surgical site infections (SSI). The molecular epidemiology of MRSA is poorly documented in Ethiopia. This study is designed to determine the prevalence of MRSA and associated factors among patients diagnosed with SSI. A multicenter study was conducted at four hospitals in Ethiopia. A wound culture was performed among 752 SSI patients. This study isolated S. aureus and identified MRSA using standard bacteriology, Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption/Ionization Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS), and cefoxitin disk diffusion test. The genes mecA, femA, vanA, and vanB were detected through PCR tests. S. aureus was identified in 21.6% of participants, with 24.5% of these being methicillin-resistant Staphylococci and 0.6% showing vancomycin resistance. Using MALDI-TOF MS for the 40 methicillin-resistant Staphylococci, we confirmed that 31 (77.5%) were S. aureus, 6 (15%) were Mammaliicoccus sciuri, and the other 3 (2.5%) were Staphylococcus warneri, Staphylococcus epidermidis, and Staphylococcus haemolyticus. The gene mecA was detected from 27.5% (11/40) of Staphylococci through PCR. Only 36.4% (4/11) were detected in S. aureus, and no vanA or vanB genes were identified. Out of 11 mecA-gene-positive Staphylococci, 8 (72.7%) were detected in Debre Tabor Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. Methicillin-resistant staphylococcal infections were associated with the following risk factors: age ≥ 61 years, prolonged duration of hospital stay, and history of previous antibiotic use, p-values < 0.05. Hospitals should strengthen infection prevention and control strategies and start antimicrobial stewardship programs.