Suicide After Partner's Death in the Elderly Population: Results From a Nationwide Cohort Study in Italy.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the effect of partner loss on suicide mortality for surviving partners in the elderly Italian population and to explore differences according to sex and time elapsed since the loss. DESIGN: This was a historical cohort study. SETTING: All Italian residents registered by the 15th Italian Population Census (9 October 2011) were linked to emigration records and death certificates for 2012-2017 to track migration, vital status, and cause of death. PARTICIPANTS: 5,068,414 individuals living as a couple, as registered in the census, and aged ≥69 years on January 1, 2012. MEASUREMENTS: Mortality rate ratios (MRR) estimated through Poisson regression models were used to compare suicide mortality at age ≥75 years between subjects who experienced partner loss and those who did not. RESULTS: Among people who experienced partner loss, there were 383 suicide deaths in men and 90 in women. Suicide mortality was higher in older men and women who experienced the loss compared to those who did not, and the impact of the spouse loss on mortality was stronger in men (age-adjusted MRR=2.83) than in women (1.41). Among men the excess risk was particularly high during the first year following the loss; in women, no substantial differences in the excess risk were observed over the follow-up period. CONCLUSION: Study findings provide evidence of the sex differences in the impact of spouse loss based on data from a large national cohort and reinforce the need for monitoring suicide risk in recently widowed older people.

Increased mortality in socioeconomic disadvantaged municipalities during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Lombardy region.

BACKGROUND: Lombardy was the first European region most severely affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in the spring of 2020. During that period, a substantial increase in socioeconomic inequality in total mortality was observed. This study aims to evaluate mortality data in the region up to September 2023 to verify whether the increased disparities between the poorest and the wealthiest municipalities persisted in the subsequent phases of the pandemic. METHODS: This study analyzed mortality data from January 2019 to September 2023 in Lombardy's municipalities by month and pandemic phases characterized by the predominance of the different severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants. Municipalities were grouped according to the average income or pension of their residents. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and the ASMR ratio between the poorest and the wealthiest municipalities were compared throughout the study period. RESULTS: In the pre-pandemic period (January 2019 - February 2020), the ASMR ratio at all ages between the poorest and the wealthiest municipalities fluctuated between 1.12 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-1.16] and 1.29 (95% CI: 1.25-1.34). In March 2020, the ASMR ratio increased to 1.49 (95% CI: 1.45-1.52 95%) and returned to values registered before the pandemic thereafter. A similar pattern was observed in the analysis of mortality ≥ 65, using the average pension for group municipalities. CONCLUSIONS: During the dramatic circumstances that the region faced in March 2020, pre-existing socioeconomic inequalities substantially widened. With the reorganization of the health system and the availability of vaccines, these disparities returned to the levels recorded before the pandemic.

Heterogeneity of weight gain after initiation of Elexacaftor/Tezacaftor/Ivacaftor in people with cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of the novel therapy, Elexacaftor/Tezacaftor/Ivacaftor (ETI) has been effective in improving weight gain in both clinical trials and real-world studies. However, the magnitude of this effect appears to be heterogeneous across patient subgroups. This study aims to identify potential determinants of heterogeneity in weight gain following 6-month ETI therapy. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, prospective cohort study enrolling 92 adults with CF at two major CF centers in Italy with follow-up visit at one month and six months from ETI initiation. The treatment's effect on weight changes was evaluated using mixed effect regression models that included subject-specific random intercepts and fixed effects for potential predictors of treatment response, time and a predictor-by-time interaction term. RESULTS: The mean weight gain at six months from the start of treatment was 4.6 kg (95% CI: 2.3-6.9) for the 10 patients with underweight, 3.2 kg (95% CI: 2.3-4.0) for the 72 patients with normal weight, and 0.7 kg (95% CI: -1.6-3.0) for the 10 patients with overweight. After six months of ETI treatment, 8 (80%) of the patients with underweight transitioned to the normal weight category, while 11 (15.3%) of the normal-weight patients became overweight. The major determinants of heterogeneity in weight gain were the baseline BMI and the presence of at least one CFTR residual function mutation, explaining 13% and 8% of the variability, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that ETI is highly effective in improving weight gain in underweight subjects with CF. However, our data also suggests the need for close monitoring of excess weight gain to prevent potential cardiometabolic complications.

Treatable traits and challenges in the clinical management of non-tuberculous mycobacteria lung disease in people with cystic fibrosis.

INTRODUCTION: Over the last ten years an increasing prevalence and incidence of non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) has been reported among patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) Viviani (J Cyst Fibros, 15(5):619-623, 2016). NTM pulmonary disease has been associated with negative clinical outcomes and often requires pharmacological treatment. Although specific guidelines help clinicians in the process of diagnosis and clinical management, the focus on the multidimensional assessment of concomitant problems is still scarce. MAIN BODY: This review aims to identify the treatable traits of NTM pulmonary disease in people with CF and discuss the importance of a multidisciplinary approach in order to detect and manage all the clinical and behavioral aspects of the disease. The multidisciplinary complexity of NTM pulmonary disease in CF requires careful management of respiratory and extra-respiratory, including control of comorbidities, drug interactions and behavioral factors as adherence to therapies. CONCLUSIONS: The treatable trait strategy can help to optimize clinical management through systematic assessment of all the aspects of the disease, providing a holistic treatment for such a multi-systemic and complex condition.

A comprehensive analysis of all-cause and cause-specific excess deaths in 30 countries during 2020.

The impact of COVID-19 on mortality from specific causes of death remains poorly understood. This study analysed cause-of-death data provided by the World Health Organization from 2011 to 2019 to estimate excess deaths in 2020 in 30 countries. Over-dispersed Poisson regression models were used to estimate the number of deaths that would have been expected if the pandemic had not occurred, separately for men and women. The models included year and age categories to account for temporal trends and changes in size and age structure of the populations. Excess deaths were calculated by subtracting observed deaths from expected ones. Our analysis revealed significant excess deaths from ischemic heart diseases (IHD) (in 10 countries), cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) (in 10 countries), and diabetes (in 19 countries). The majority of countries experienced excess mortality greater than 10%, including Mexico (+ 38·8% for IHD, + 34·9% for diabetes), Guatemala (+ 30·0% for IHD, + 10·2% for CVD, + 39·7% for diabetes), Cuba (+ 18·8% for diabetes), Brazil (+ 12·9% for diabetes), the USA (+ 15·1% for diabetes), Slovenia (+ 33·8% for diabetes), Poland (+ 30·2% for IHD, + 19·5% for CVD, + 26 1% for diabetes), Estonia (+ 26·9% for CVD, + 34·7% for diabetes), Bulgaria (+ 22·8% for IHD, + 11·4% for diabetes), Spain (+ 19·7% for diabetes), Italy (+ 18·0% for diabetes), Lithuania (+ 17·6% for diabetes), Finland (+ 13·2% for diabetes) and Georgia (+ 10·7% for IHD, + 19·0% for diabetes). In 2020, 22 out of 30 countries had a significant increase in total mortality. Some of this excess was attributed to COVID-19, but a substantial increase was also observed in deaths attributed to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.

Cancer mortality associated with low education in Italy.

BACKGROUND: This study provides a nationwide representative quantification of the impact of educational inequalities on cancer mortality in Italy. METHODS: The study is based on prevalence data and mortality rate ratios according to levels of education obtained from the Italian 2011 census cohort, including >35 million individuals aged 30-74. We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) and the number of cancer deaths associated with low education (below university degree) in Italy by sex. RESULTS: PAFs for low levels of education were 29.1% among men and 13.3% among women, corresponding to 22,271 cancer deaths associated with low education in men and 7456 in women in 2019. PAFs by cancer site in men were: 53.0% for upper aerodigestive tract (UADT), 44.6% for liver, 41.3% for stomach, 41.3% for lung, 37.0% for bladder, 18.5% for colorectal, 9.8% for prostate and 9.1% for pancreatic cancers. PAFs in women were: 44.5% for cervical, 36.1% for UADT, 34.9% for stomach and 13.9% for colorectal cancers. The cancer sites with the highest number of deaths associated with low education were lung among men (7902/22,271, 35.5%) and colorectum among women (780/7456, 10.5%). CONCLUSIONS: About a quarter of cancer deaths in 2019 in Italy may be prevented by reducing the socioeconomic determinants that contribute to educational disparities in cancer mortality.

Non-sugar sweeteners and cancer: Toxicological and epidemiological evidence.

Several toxicological and epidemiological studies were published during the last five decades on non-sugar sweeteners (NSS) and cancer. Despite the large amount of research, the issue still continues to be of interest. In this review, we provided a comprehensive quantitative review of the toxicological and epidemiological evidence on the possible relation between NSS and cancer. The toxicological section includes the evaluation of genotoxicity and carcinogenicity data for acesulfame K, advantame, aspartame, cyclamates, saccharin, steviol glycosides and sucralose. The epidemiological section includes the results of a systematic search of cohort and case-control studies. The majority of the 22 cohort studies and 46 case-control studies showed no associations. Some risks for bladder, pancreas and hematopoietic cancers found in a few studies were not confirmed in other studies. Based on the review of both the experimental data on genotoxicity or carcinogenicity of the specific NSS evaluated, and the epidemiological studies it can be concluded that there is no evidence of cancer risk associated to NSS consumption.

Serum vitamin D and cardiometabolic risk factors in the UK population.

We analysed data on 2842 subjects aged ≥40 years enrolled in the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS 2008-2019). Based on serum 25(OH)D concentrations, study subjects were grouped in three categories: vitamin D deficiency (<25 nmol/L), vitamin D insufficiency (25-49 nmol/L) and vitamin D sufficiency status (≥50 nmol/L). Differences in CVD risk factors between vitamin D deficiency or insufficiency and vitamin D sufficiency status were expressed in standard deviation scores (SDS) and estimated through weighted multiple linear regression models.

Unplanned pregnancies following the introduction of elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor therapy in women with cystic fibrosis.

Cystic fibrosis (CF) causes infertility and subfertility due to various factors, including altered cervical mucus, delayed puberty, and hormonal imbalances. With the introduction of the CFTR modulator therapy elexacaftor-tezacaftor-ivacaftor, we have observed an increase in unplanned pregnancies among women undergoing ETI treatment in our CF center, despite repeated recommendations for strict fertility monitoring. It appears that these pregnancies are more likely attributed to reduced attention to the possibility of conception rather than contraceptive failure. The perception of subfertility developed by women with CF over time, before the era of modulators, can influence their long-term habits and lead to the underuse of contraceptive methods. While further research is needed to fully understand the effects of ETI on fertility, healthcare providers should be attentive to the fertility concerns of women with CF, particularly those treated with modulators in adulthood.

Excess Total Mortality in Italy: An Update to February 2023 with Focus on Working Ages.

BACKGROUND: Italy had a persistent excess of total mortality up to July 2022. This study provides updated estimates of excess mortality in Italy until February 2023. METHODS: Mortality and population data from 2011 to 2019 were used to estimate the number of expected deaths during the pandemic. Expected deaths were obtained using over-dispersed Poisson regression models, fitted separately for men and women, including calendar year, age group, and a smoothed function of the day of the year as predictors. The excess deaths were then obtained by calculating the difference between observed and expected deaths and were computed at all ages and working ages (25-64 years). RESULTS: We estimated 26,647 excess deaths for all ages and 1248 for working ages from August to December 2022, resulting in a percent excess mortality of 10.2% and 4.7%, respectively. No excess mortality was detected in January and February 2023. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates substantial excess mortality beyond those directly attributed to COVID-19 during the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron wave in the latter half of 2022. This excess could be attributed to additional factors, such as the heatwave during the summer of 2022 and the early onset of the influenza season.

No Excess Total Mortality in Italy in the First Semester of 2023 at All Ages and in the Working Age Population.

BACKGROUND: Italy experienced a sustained excess in total mortality between March 2020 and December 2022, resulting in approximately 226,000 excess deaths. This study extends the estimate of excess mortality in the country until June 2023, evaluating the persistence of excess mortality. METHODS: We used mortality and population data from 2011 to 2019 to establish a baseline for expected deaths during the pandemic. Over-dispersed Poisson regression models were employed, stratified by sex, to predict expected deaths. These models included calendar year, age group, and a smoothed function for the day of the year as predictors. Excess mortality was then calculated for all ages and working ages (25-64 years). RESULTS: From January to June 2023, we found a reduction in the number of deaths compared to the expected ones: 6,933 fewer deaths across all age groups and 1,768 fewer deaths in the working age category. This corresponds to a 2.1% and 5.2% decrease in mortality, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The excess mortality observed in Italy from March to December 2022 was no longer observed in the first six months of 2023.

The mediating role of combined lifestyle factors on the relationship between education and gastric cancer in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project.

BACKGROUND: The causal pathway between high education and reduced risk of gastric cancer (GC) has not been explained. The study aimed at evaluating the mediating role of lifestyle factors on the relationship between education and GC METHODS: Ten studies with complete data on education and five lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol drinking, fruit and vegetable intake, processed meat intake and salt consumption) were selected from a consortium of studies on GC including 4349 GC cases and 8441 controls. We created an a priori score based on the five lifestyle factors, and we carried out a counterfactual-based mediation analysis to decompose the total effect of education on GC into natural direct effect and natural indirect effect mediated by the combined lifestyle factors. Effects were expressed as odds ratios (ORs) with a low level of education as the reference category. RESULTS: The natural direct and indirect effects of high versus low education were 0.69 (95% CI: 0.62-0.77) and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95-0.97), respectively, corresponding to a mediated percentage of 10.1% (95% CI: 7.1-15.4%). The mediation effect was limited to men. CONCLUSIONS: The mediation effect of the combined lifestyle factors on the relationship between education and GC is modest. Other potential pathways explaining that relationship warrants further investigation.

Tea consumption and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis from the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project consortium.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from epidemiological studies on the role of tea drinking in gastric cancer risk remains inconsistent. We aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between tea consumption and gastric cancer in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project consortium. METHODS: A total of 9438 cases and 20,451 controls from 22 studies worldwide were included. Odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of gastric cancer for regular versus non-regular tea drinkers were estimated by one and two-stage modelling analyses, including terms for sex, age and the main recognised risk factors for gastric cancer. RESULTS: Compared to non-regular drinkers, the estimated adjusted pooled OR for regular tea drinkers was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85-0.97). When the amount of tea consumed was considered, the OR for consumption of 1-2 cups/day was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.94-1.09) and for >3 cups/day was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.80-1.03). Stronger inverse associations emerged among regular drinkers in China and Japan (OR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.49-0.91) where green tea is consumed, in subjects with H. pylori infection (OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.58-0.80), and for gastric cardia cancer (OR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.49-0.84). CONCLUSION: Our results indicate a weak inverse association between tea consumption and gastric cancer.

Clinical course and risk factors for severe COVID-19 among Italian patients with cystic fibrosis: a study within the Italian Cystic Fibrosis Society.

PURPOSE: To describe the clinical course of COVID-19 in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) and to identify risk factors for severe COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study within the Italian CF Society. CF centers collected baseline and follow-up data of patients with virologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 2020 and June 2021. Odds ratios (ORs) for severe SARS-CoV-2 (as defined by hospital admission) were estimated by logistic regression models. RESULTS: The study included 236 patients with positive molecular test for SARS-CoV-2. Six patients died, 43 patients were admitted to hospital, 4 admitted to intensive care unit. Pancreatic insufficiency was associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19 (OR 4.04, 95% CI 1.52; 10.8). After adjusting for age and pancreatic insufficiency, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEVp) < 40% (OR 4.54, 95% CI 1.56; 13.2), oxygen therapy (OR 12.3, 95% CI 2.91-51.7), underweight (OR 2.92, 95% CI 1.12; 7.57), organ transplantation (OR 7.31, 95% CI 2.59; 20.7), diabetes (OR 2.67, 95% CI 1.23; 5.80) and liver disease (OR 3.67, 95% CI 1.77; 7.59) were associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19, while use of dornase alfa was associated with a reduced risk (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.13-0.88). No significant changes were observed in FEVp from baseline to a median follow-up of 2 months (median difference: 0, interquartile range: - 4; 5, P = 0.62). CONCLUSION: Clinical features indicative of severe form of CF are associated with increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalization. SARS-CoV-2 infected patients do not experience a deterioration of respiratory function.

Suicide mortality among the elderly population in Italy: A nationwide cohort study on gender differences in sociodemographic risk factors, method of suicide, and associated comorbidity.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at investigating gender differences in the relationship between sociodemographic factors and suicide mortality, as well as in the method used for suicide and the presence of comorbidities in an older population in Italy. METHODS/DESIGN: We conducted a historical cohort study based on individual record linkage across the 15th Italian Population Census, the Italian Population Register, and the National Register of Causes of Death. Suicides among people aged 75 years or older from 2012 to 2017 were analyzed. Crude mortality rates were computed, and cause-specific mortality rate ratios were estimated using negative binomial regression models. Chi-square tests were used to evaluate significant gender differences in suicide methods and comorbidities associated with suicide. RESULTS: The study included 9,686,698 individuals (41% men, 59% women). Compared to living alone, living with children or partners reduced suicide mortality, especially among men. Having high or medium educational levels was associated with lower mortality than low educational levels among men. Foreign citizens had lower mortality among men, but not among women. Living in urban areas was associated with lower suicide rates in men and higher rates in women. Methods of suicide significantly differed by gender: leading methods were hanging, strangulation, and suffocation in men, and falling from height in women. Mental comorbidity was significantly more frequent among women, especially at ages 75-84 years. CONCLUSIONS: We believe that our findings might help to promote public health strategies taking gender differences in old age into account to improve social support and quality of life of older men and women.

Redistribution of garbage codes to underlying causes of death: a systematic analysis on Italy and a comparison with most populous Western European countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of reported causes of death (CoDs) that are not underlying causes can be relevant even in high-income countries and seriously affect health planning. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study identifies these 'garbage codes' (GCs) and redistributes them to underlying causes using evidence-based algorithms. Planners relying on vital registration data will find discrepancies with GBD estimates. We analyse these discrepancies, through the analysis of GCs and their redistribution. METHODS: We explored the case of Italy, at national and regional level, and compared it to nine other Western European countries with similar population sizes. We analysed differences between official data and GBD 2019 estimates, for the period 1990-2017 for which we had vital registration data for most select countries. RESULTS: In Italy, in 2017, 33 000 deaths were attributed to unspecified type of stroke and 15 000 to unspecified type of diabetes, these making a fourth of the overall garbage. Significant heterogeneity exists on the overall proportion of GCs, type (unspecified or impossible underlying causes), and size of specific GCs among regions in Italy, and among the select countries. We found no pattern between level of garbage and relevance of specific GCs. Even locations performing below average show interesting lower levels for certain GCs if compared to better performing countries. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic analysis suggests the heterogeneity in GC levels and causes, paired with a more detailed analysis of local practices, strengths and weaknesses, could be a positive element in a strategy for the reduction of GCs in Italy.

[Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the inequalities in total mortality by country of birth]. / Gli effetti della pandemia di COVID-19 sulle disuguaglianze nella mortalità totale per Paese di nascita.

OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the impact on total mortality of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, by country of birth. DESIGN: historic cohort study based on administrative databases. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the study is based on subjects included in the Base Register of Individuals of the Italian National Institute of Statistics on 01.01.2019, aged 35-64 years, and followed-up until 31.07.2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: age-standardized mortality rates were computed to analyse trends in overall mortality by country of birth grouped in three categories: 1. Italy and other high developed countries; 2. European countries with strong migratory pressure (EU-SMP); 3, non-European countries with strong migratory pressure (non-EU-SMP). Variations in mortality rates during the pandemic (March 2020-July 2021) with respect to the pre-pandemic period (January 2019-February 2020) were measured and compared across groups using mortality rate ratios (MRR) estimated by Poisson regression models, separately for men and women. RESULTS: the cohort includes 26,199,241 individuals, of whom 172,847 died during the follow-up. Over the whole period, mortality was consistently lower in individuals born in non-EU-SMP countries as compared to those born in Italy and other high developed countries. During the first pandemic wave (March-April 2020), individuals born in non-EU-SMP countries had higher excesses as compared to those born in Italy or other high developed countries (MRRs: 1.42 vs 1.28 in men and 1.30 vs 1.11 in women). Similar results were observed during the pandemic period October 2020-April 2021, when the MRRs were 1.37 vs 1.20 in men and 1.30 vs 1.11 in women. In the same period, the excess mortality among individuals born in EU-SMP did not significantly differ from that observed among those born in Italy and other high developed countries. CONCLUSIONS: in Italy, excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic was higher among immigrants born in non-EU-SMP countries as compared to the native population and immigrants born in high developed countries.

Excess total mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy: updated estimates indicate persistent excess in recent months.

BACKGROUND: New releases of daily mortality data are available in Italy; the last containing data up to 31 January 2022. This study revises previous estimates of the excess mortality in Italy during the Covid-19 pandemic. METHODS: Excess mortality was estimated as the difference between the number of registered deaths and the expected deaths. Expected deaths in March-December 2020, January-December 2021 and January 2022 were estimated separately by sex, through an over-dispersed Poisson regression model using mortality and population data for the period 2011-2019. The models included terms for calendar year, age group, a smooth function of week of the year and the natural logarithm of the population as offset term. RESULTS: We estimated 99,334 excess deaths (+18.8%) between March and December 2020, 61,808 deaths (+9.5%) in 2021 and 4143 deaths (+6.1%) in January 2022. Over the whole pandemic period, 13,039 excess deaths (+10.2%) were estimated in the age group 25-64 years with most of the excess observed among men [10,025 deaths (+12.6%) among men and 3014 deaths (+6.3%) among women]. CONCLUSIONS: Up to 31 January 2022, over 165 thousand excess deaths were estimated in Italy, of these about 8% occurred among the working age population. Despite high vaccination uptake, excess mortality is still observed in recent months.

Attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination and containment measures in Italy and the role of occupational physicians.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine hesitancy is the main barrier to the effective management of COVID-19. This study aims to evaluate attitudes towards vaccination and containment measures in Italy, and the role of occupational physicians in the management of COVID-19. METHODS: Between 26 and 31 January 2022, we conducted a national online survey including 1000 respondents (631 workers) representative of the Italian population. A series of questions were asked to get information on attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination, containment measures and management of COVID-19. Sampling weights were used to obtain national estimates. RESULTS: The majority of respondents (92.6%) received at least two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (or one dose of Janssen, Ad26.COV2.S), only 4.9% did not get any dose. Most interviewees (79.2%) stated that the decision to be vaccinated was their own choice, while only 4.3% were convinced by the general practitioner or the occupational physician. History of SARS-CoV-2 infection was reported by 23.9% of the participants (30.2% among workers); and 40% of the infected workers were contacted/visited by an occupational physician. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine uptake was remarkably high in Italy. Occupational physicians played a relevant role in the management of COVID-19 in occupational settings.

No excess mortality among working-age Italians during the Omicron wave of Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: This study provides updated estimates of the excess deaths in Italy with a focus on the working-age population. METHODS: Over-dispersed Poisson regression models, fitted on 2011-2019 mortality data, and including terms for age, calendar year and a smooth function of the week of the year, were used to estimate the expected number of deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic. The excess deaths were then obtained by the difference between observed and expected deaths and reported according to the pandemic periods defined by the predominant circulating variant of SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: Around 170,700 excess deaths at all ages were estimated between March 2020 and March 2022 in Italy with most of the excess occurring during the pre-Delta and Delta period, and 2930 excess deaths (+2.5%) during the Omicron wave. The excesses among the working age population were: 10,425 deaths (+11.8%) during the pre-Delta period, 2460 (+9.4%) during the Delta wave, 283 (+2.2%) during the transition period to Delta. Mortality was lower than expected during the Omicron wave (-6.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Over the periods preceding the Omicron wave, Covid-19 caused around 12,800 excess deaths among individuals of working age, accounting for over 10% excess death. This excess was no longer observed during the Omicron wave.