Seroprevalence of immunity to hepatitis A and hepatitis B among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) attending sexual health clinics in London and Leeds, England, 2017-2018.

OBJECTIVES: Although hepatitis A virus (HAV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) immunisation is recommended in the UK for gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM), data on immunisation coverage are limited. We aimed to determine the seroprevalence of HAV and HBV immunity among a sample of GBMSM attending sexual health services (SHS) in England. METHODS: Residual serum samples from HIV/syphilis testing for adult GBMSM attending eight SHS in London and one in Leeds were tested for markers of HAV immunity (HAV IgG) and HBV immunity (anti-HBs) using an unlinked anonymous approach. We estimated seroprevalence of HAV and HBV immunity overall and stratified by individuals' characteristics, which we obtained from the Genitourinary Medicine Clinic Activity Dataset Sexually Transmitted Infection (STI) Surveillance System. We used logistic regression to calculate crude and adjusted ORs between seropositivity and demographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS: Seroprevalence of immunity to HAV (74.5% of 2577) and HBV (77.1% of 2551) was high. In adjusted analysis, HAV IgG seroprevalence varied by clinic and WHO region of birth (global p<0.001 for each), increased with older age (ORs of 1.50 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.86), 2.91 (2.17 to 3.90) and 3.40 (2.44 to 4.75) for ages 26-35, 36-45 and >46 vs 18-25 years (global p<0.001), was higher in those with an STI in the past year (1.58 (1.25 to 2.00); p<0.001) and those who were living with HIV (1.82 (1.25 to 2.64); p<0.001). Anti-HBs seroprevalence varied by clinic (global p<0.001), increased with older age (global p<0.001) and was higher in those with an STI in the past year (1.61 (1.27 to 2.05); p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Our findings provide a baseline seroprevalence from which to monitor serial levels of immunity to HBV and HAV in GBMSM accessing SHS. Levels of immunity for both viruses are high, noting samples were taken after recent widespread outbreaks and vaccination campaigns. High vaccine coverage in all GBMSM should be maintained to prevent further outbreaks.

Is there an association between previous infection with Neisseria gonorrhoeae and gonococcal AMR? A cross-sectional analysis of national and sentinel surveillance data in England, 2015-2019.

OBJECTIVES: Quarterly STI screening is recommended for high-risk gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in the UK, but frequent antibiotic exposure could potentially increase the risk of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) developing in Neisseria gonorrhoeae. We investigated whether repeat diagnosis of gonorrhoea in those attending sexual health services (SHS) was associated with reduced antimicrobial susceptibility. METHODS: Antimicrobial susceptibility data relating to the most recent gonorrhoea diagnosis for each individual included in the Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance Programme (2015-2019) were matched to their historical records in the national GUMCAD STI surveillance data set (2012-2019). The number of gonorrhoea diagnoses in the previous 3 years was calculated for each SHS attendee. Logistic regression was used to examine the associations between the number of diagnoses and reduced susceptibility to ceftriaxone (minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) >0.03 mg/L), cefixime (MIC >0.06 mg/L) and azithromycin (MIC >0.25 mg/L) at the time of the latest diagnosis. RESULTS: Of 6161 individuals included in the analysis, 3913 (63.5%) were MSM, 1220 (19.8%) were heterosexual men and 814 (13.2%) were women. Among MSM, 2476 (63.3%) had 1 past gonorrhoea diagnosis, 1295 (33.1%) had 2-4, 140 (3.6%) 5-9, and 2 (0.1%) ≥10. Most women and heterosexual men (91.7%) had one past gonorrhoea diagnosis; none had more than four. Reduced ceftriaxone and cefixime susceptibility was more common among MSM with two to four gonorrhoea diagnoses (3.8% and 5.8%, respectively) compared with those with one (2.2% and 3.9%, respectively). After adjusting for potential confounding, this association remained (adjusted OR: 1.59, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.37, p=0.02; adjusted OR: 1.54, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.14, p=0.01). No evidence was found for any other associations. CONCLUSIONS: Among MSM, repeat diagnosis of gonorrhoea may be associated with reduced ceftriaxone and cefixime susceptibility. As these are last-line therapies for gonorrhoea, further research is needed to assess the impact of intensive STI screening on AMR.

Projecting the development of antimicrobial resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae from antimicrobial surveillance data: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends changing the first-line antimicrobial treatment for gonorrhoea when ≥ 5% of Neisseria gonorrhoeae cases fail treatment or are resistant. Susceptibility to ceftriaxone, the last remaining treatment option has been decreasing in many countries. We used antimicrobial resistance surveillance data and developed mathematical models to project the time to reach the 5% threshold for resistance to first-line antimicrobials used for N. gonorrhoeae. METHODS: We used data from the Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance Programme (GRASP) in England and Wales from 2000-2018 about minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) for ciprofloxacin, azithromycin, cefixime and ceftriaxone and antimicrobial treatment in two groups, heterosexual men and women (HMW) and men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed two susceptible-infected-susceptible models to fit these data and produce projections of the proportion of resistance until 2030. The single-step model represents the situation in which a single mutation results in antimicrobial resistance. In the multi-step model, the sequential accumulation of resistance mutations is reflected by changes in the MIC distribution. RESULTS: The single-step model described resistance to ciprofloxacin well. Both single-step and multi-step models could describe azithromycin and cefixime resistance, with projected resistance levels higher with the multi-step than the single step model. For ceftriaxone, with very few observed cases of full resistance, the multi-step model was needed to describe long-term dynamics of resistance. Extrapolating from the observed upward drift in MIC values, the multi-step model projected ≥ 5% resistance to ceftriaxone could be reached by 2030, based on treatment pressure alone. Ceftriaxone resistance was projected to rise to 13.2% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.7-44.8%) among HMW and 19.6% (95%CrI: 2.6-54.4%) among MSM by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: New first-line antimicrobials for gonorrhoea treatment are needed. In the meantime, public health authorities should strengthen surveillance for AMR in N. gonorrhoeae and implement strategies for continued antimicrobial stewardship. Our models show the utility of long-term representative surveillance of gonococcal antimicrobial susceptibility data and can be adapted for use in, and for comparison with, other countries.

Comparative transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) and Delta (B.1.617.2) variants and the impact of vaccination: national cohort study, England.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) rapidly replaced Delta (B.1.617.2) to become dominant in England. Our study assessed differences in transmission between Omicron and Delta using two independent data sources and methods. Omicron and Delta cases were identified through genomic sequencing, genotyping and S-gene target failure in England from 5-11 December 2021. Secondary attack rates for named contacts were calculated in household and non-household settings using contact tracing data, while household clustering was identified using national surveillance data. Logistic regression models were applied to control for factors associated with transmission for both methods. For contact tracing data, higher secondary attack rates for Omicron vs. Delta were identified in households (15.0% vs. 10.8%) and non-households (8.2% vs. 3.7%). For both variants, in household settings, onward transmission was reduced from cases and named contacts who had three doses of vaccine compared to two, but this effect was less pronounced for Omicron (adjusted risk ratio, aRR 0.78 and 0.88) than Delta (aRR 0.62 and 0.68). In non-household settings, a similar reduction was observed only in contacts who had three doses vs. two doses for both Delta (aRR 0.51) and Omicron (aRR 0.76). For national surveillance data, the risk of household clustering, was increased 3.5-fold for Omicron compared to Delta (aRR 3.54 (3.29-3.81)). Our study identified increased risk of onward transmission of Omicron, consistent with its successful global displacement of Delta. We identified a reduced effectiveness of vaccination in lowering risk of transmission, a likely contributor for the rapid propagation of Omicron.

COVID-19 infection and vaccination uptake in men and gender-diverse people who have sex with men in the UK: analyses of a large, online community cross-sectional survey (RiiSH-COVID) undertaken November-December 2021.

BACKGROUND: Men and gender-diverse people who have sex with men are disproportionately affected by health conditions associated with increased risk of severe illness due to COVID-19 infection. METHODS: An online cross-sectional survey of men and gender-diverse people who have sex with men in the UK recruited via social networking and dating applications from 22 November-12 December 2021. Eligible participants included self-identifying men, transgender women, or gender-diverse individuals assigned male at birth (AMAB), aged ≥ 16, who were UK residents, and self-reported having had sex with an individual AMAB in the last year. We calculated self-reported COVID-19 test-positivity, proportion reporting long COVID, and COVID-19 vaccination uptake anytime from pandemic start to survey completion (November/December 2021). Logistic regression was used to assess sociodemographic, clinical, and behavioural characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) test positivity and complete vaccination (≥ 2 vaccine doses). RESULTS: Among 1,039 participants (88.1% white, median age 41 years [interquartile range: 31-51]), 18.6% (95% CI: 16.3%-21.1%) reported COVID-19 test positivity, 8.3% (95% CI: 6.7%-10.1%) long COVID, and 94.5% (95% CI: 93.3%-96.1%) complete COVID-19 vaccination through late 2021. In multivariable models, COVID-19 test positivity was associated with UK country of residence (aOR: 2.22 [95% CI: 1.26-3.92], England vs outside England) and employment (aOR: 1.55 [95% CI: 1.01-2.38], current employment vs not employed). Complete COVID-19 vaccination was associated with age (aOR: 1.04 [95% CI: 1.01-1.06], per increasing year), gender (aOR: 0.26 [95% CI: 0.09-0.72], gender minority vs cisgender), education (aOR: 2.11 [95% CI: 1.12-3.98], degree-level or higher vs below degree-level), employment (aOR: 2.07 [95% CI: 1.08-3.94], current employment vs not employed), relationship status (aOR: 0.50 [95% CI: 0.25-1.00], single vs in a relationship), COVID-19 infection history (aOR: 0.47 [95% CI: 0.25-0.88], test positivity or self-perceived infection vs no history), known HPV vaccination (aOR: 3.32 [95% CI: 1.43-7.75]), and low self-worth (aOR: 0.29 [95% CI: 0.15-0.54]). CONCLUSIONS: In this community sample, COVID-19 vaccine uptake was high overall, though lower among younger age-groups, gender minorities, and those with poorer well-being. Efforts are needed to limit COVID-19 related exacerbation of health inequalities in groups who already experience a greater burden of poor health relative to other men who have sex with men.

COVID-19 deaths in children and young people in England, March 2020 to December 2021: An active prospective national surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are rare in children and young people (CYP). The high rates of asymptomatic and mild infections complicate assessment of cause of death in CYP. We assessed the cause of death in all CYP with a positive Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) test since the start of the pandemic in England. METHODS AND FINDINGS: CYP aged <20 years who died within 100 days of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between 01 March 2020 and 31 December 2021 in England were followed up in detail, using national databases, surveillance questionnaires, post-mortem reports, and clinician interviews. There were 185 deaths during the 22-month follow-up and 81 (43.8%) were due to COVID-19. Compared to non-COVID-19 deaths in CYP with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, death due to COVID-19 was independently associated with older age (aOR 1.06 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.11, p = 0.02) and underlying comorbidities (aOR 2.52 95% CI 1.27 to 5.01, p = 0.008), after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity group, and underlying conditions, with a shorter interval between SARS-CoV-2 testing and death. Half the COVID-19 deaths (41/81, 50.6%) occurred within 7 days of confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection and 91% (74/81) within 30 days. Of the COVID-19 deaths, 61 (75.3%) had an underlying condition, especially severe neurodisability (n = 27) and immunocompromising conditions (n = 12). Over the 22-month surveillance period, SARS-CoV-2 was responsible for 1.2% (81/6,790) of all deaths in CYP aged <20 years, with an infection fatality rate of 0.70/100,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections in this age group estimated through real-time, nowcasting modelling, and a mortality rate of 0.61/100,000. Limitations include possible under-ascertainment of deaths in CYP who were not tested for SARS-CoV-2 and lack of direct access to clinical data for hospitalised CYP. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 deaths remain extremely rare in CYP, with most fatalities occurring within 30 days of infection and in children with specific underlying conditions.

Assessment of mortality and hospital admissions associated with confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant: a matched cohort and time-to-event analysis, England, October to December 2020.

BackgroundThe emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant in England coincided with a rapid increase in the number of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases in areas where the variant was concentrated.AimOur aim was to assess whether infection with Alpha was associated with more severe clinical outcomes than the wild type.MethodsLaboratory-confirmed infections with genomically sequenced SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and wild type between October and December 2020 were linked to routine healthcare and surveillance datasets. We conducted two statistical analyses to compare the risk of hospital admission and death within 28 days of testing between Alpha and wild-type infections: a matched cohort study and an adjusted Cox proportional hazards model. We assessed differences in disease severity by comparing hospital admission and mortality, including length of hospitalisation and time to death.ResultsOf 63,609 COVID-19 cases sequenced in England between October and December 2020, 6,038 had the Alpha variant. In the matched cohort analysis, we matched 2,821 cases with Alpha to 2,821 to cases with wild type. In the time-to-event analysis, we observed a 34% increased risk in hospitalisation associated with Alpha compared with wild type, but no significant difference in the risk of mortality.ConclusionWe found evidence of increased risk of hospitalisation after adjusting for key confounders, suggesting increased infection severity associated with the Alpha variant. Rapid assessments of the relative morbidity in terms of clinical outcomes and mortality associated with emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants compared with dominant variants are required to assess overall impact of SARS-CoV-2 mutations.

Rapid Increase in Lymphogranuloma Venereum among HIV-Negative Men Who Have Sex with Men, England, 2019.

Incidence of lymphogranuloma venereum increased in England during 2018-2019, after a period of decline. Our retrospective analysis of national surveillance data identified a rapid increase in diagnoses among HIV-negative men who have sex with men. These findings indicate a need for sustained surveillance and targeted public health action.

Epidemiology of Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths in Adults, England, March-December 2020.

Of the 58,186 coronavirus deaths among adults in England during March-December 2020, 77% occurred in hospitals, 93% were in patients >60 years, and 91% occurred within 28 days of positive specimen. Cumulative mortality rates were highest among persons of Black, Asian, other, or mixed ethnicities and in socioeconomically deprived areas.

Does being on HIV antiretroviral therapy increase the risk of syphilis? An analysis of a large national cohort of MSM living with HIV in England 2009-2016.

OBJECTIVE: A resurgence in bacterial STIs, notably syphilis, among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) has been detected in England. A Canadian modelling study postulated that antiretroviral therapy (ART) may increase susceptibility to syphilis. We assess the association between ART and syphilis incidence in a comprehensive national cohort of MSM living with HIV in England. METHODS: National surveillance data were used to create a cohort of MSM attending for both HIV and STI care in England between 2009 and 2016. Survival analysis was used to calculate the incidence of infectious syphilis during periods on and off ART. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to assess the association between ART use and syphilis, after adjustment for potential confounders, including, as a proxy measure for high-risk behaviour, being diagnosed with >1 other STI prior to a syphilis diagnosis. RESULTS: 19 428 HIV diagnosed MSM contributed 112 960 person-years of follow-up from 2009 to 2016. The overall rate of syphilis was 78.0 cases per 1000 person-years follow-up. Syphilis rates were higher among men receiving ART (36.8) compared with those who did not (28.4) (absolute rate difference 4.7 cases per 1000 person-years). Multivariable analysis showed no statistical association between receiving ART and syphilis. Increased risk of syphilis was found in MSM aged 25-34 (HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.43 to 2.51) and in those diagnosed with two other STIs (HR 5.83, 95% CI 5.37 to 6.32). CONCLUSION: While we observed a small increase in the rate of syphilis among those on ART, when adjusting for potential confounding factors, including a proxy measure for high-risk behaviour, there was no evidence of an increased risk of syphilis in MSM receiving ART. High-risk sexual behaviour markers were the main risk factors for syphilis, and our results highlight the need for STI prevention interventions in MSM living with HIV to target these particularly high-risk sexual networks.

Factors associated with reporting antibiotic use as STI prophylaxis among HIV PrEP users: findings from a cross-sectional online community survey, May-July 2019, UK.

OBJECTIVES: The use of antibiotics as pre-exposure or postexposure prophylaxis for sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention (STI prophylaxis) is not currently recommended in the UK, but there is evidence that self-prescribing occurs among those at greatest risk. We present the prevalence and factors associated with STI prophylaxis among a community sample of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users. METHODS: The 2019 online PrEP User Survey ran between 17 May and 1 July. Eligible participants included UK residents reporting HIV PrEP use or having tried to obtain HIV PrEP since January 2017. STI prophylaxis use was defined as reporting buying antibiotics to prevent STIs, either privately or through the internet; this question was only asked to HIV PrEP users. Factors associated with STI prophylaxis use were assessed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, 9% (167/1856) of HIV PrEP users reported STI prophylaxis use; 97% were gay or bisexual men, 84% reported white ethnicity, 55% resided in London and 69% were aged ≥35 years. Factors associated with STI prophylaxis included: reporting ≥5 compared with 1-4 condomless sex partners in the past 6 months (12% vs 5.6%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=1.80; 95% CI 1.22 to 2.64), reporting chemsex drug use compared with no sexualised drug use in the past 12 months (13% vs 6.0%, aOR=1.88; 95% CI 1.20 to 2.93) and reporting an STI diagnosis in the past 12 months (12% vs 6.6%, aOR=1.54; 95% CI 1.08 to 2.18). Variables not significant in multivariable analyses included: ethnicity, age, residence and HIV PrEP sourcing. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 1 in 10 HIV PrEP users from this community sample reported self-prescribed STI prophylaxis. STI prophylaxis was associated with sexual behaviour known to facilitate STI transmission and with a history of recent STIs acquisition. Given the potential risk of antimicrobial resistance, sexual health clinicians should consider asking attendees, especially HIV PrEP users, about the use of antibiotics as STI prophylaxis, to inform appropriate counselling, testing and management.

Frequency and Correlates of Mycoplasma genitalium Antimicrobial Resistance Mutations and Their Association With Treatment Outcomes: Findings From a National Sentinel Surveillance Pilot in England.

BACKGROUND: Mycoplasma genitalium infection is a public health concern due to extensive antimicrobial resistance. Using data from a pilot of M. genitalium antimicrobial resistance surveillance, we determined the prevalence and risk factors for resistance among specimens from sexual health clinic attendees and assessed treatment outcomes. METHODS: Seventeen sexual health clinics in England sent consecutive M. genitalium-positive specimens to the national reference laboratory from January to March 2019. Regions of the 23S rRNA, parC, and gyrA genes associated with macrolide and fluoroquinolone resistance, respectively, were amplified and sequenced where appropriate. Fisher exact tests, and univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine associations between demographic, clinical, and behavioral factors and resistance-associated mutations. RESULTS: More than two-thirds (173 of 249 [69%]) of M. genitalium specimens had mutations associated with macrolide resistance, whereas predicted fluoroquinolone (21 of 251 [8%]) and dual-drug (12 of 237 [5%]) resistance were less prevalent. No specimens had both gyrA and parC resistance-associated mutations. Macrolide resistance was more common in specimens from men who have sex with men compared with heterosexual men (adjusted odds ratio, 2.64; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-6.38; P = 0.03). There was an association between both macrolide and fluoroquinolone resistance and having a previous sexually transmitted infection (P = 0.06).Only 19% of individuals returned for a test of cure. Of those infected with a macrolide-resistant genotype who were given azithromycin, 57 of 78 (73%) were known or assumed to be clinically cured; however, 43 of these 57 (75%) also received doxycycline. Of the 21 with a macrolide-resistant genotype who failed treatment, 18 of 21 (86%) also received doxycycline. CONCLUSIONS: Although macrolide resistance was widespread, particularly among specimens from men who have sex with men and those with a previous sexually transmitted infection diagnosis in the past year, resistance-associated mutations in M. genitalium did not seem to be unequivocally predictive of treatment failure.

Investigating the decline in Lymphogranuloma venereum diagnoses in men who have sex with men in the United Kingdom since 2016: an analysis of surveillance data.

Background Following an upward trajectory in Lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) diagnoses in the UK from 2004 to 2016, with annual diagnoses increasing from 28 to 904, diagnoses fell to 641 in 2017; this was inconsistent with the upward trend in other bacterial sexually transmissible infections (STIs) between 2016 and 2017. An analysis of surveillance data from multiple sources to investigate the possible factors contributing to this decline in LGV was performed. METHODS: LGV tests and diagnoses in the UK from 2004 to 2018 were captured through laboratory data from the LGV Reference Laboratories and laboratories conducting in-house LGV testing. These data and clinical diagnoses data from England were analysed alongside the national management guidelines issued over the course of the epidemic. RESULTS: LGV diagnoses increased between 2004 and 2015 and then decreased between 2016 and 2018. LGV testing increased from 2010 to 2018 (2690-10850). Test positivity halved between 2015 (14.8%, 929-6272) and 2018 (7.3%, 791-10850). Peaks in LGV testing and diagnoses appeared to coincide with the publication of national LGV management guidelines and changes to clinical practice. The proportion of LGV diagnoses among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) fell between 2013 and 2018 (74-48%). CONCLUSIONS: The fall in diagnoses and positivity were likely due to increasing earlier clinical diagnosis and treatment. Changes to the national management guidelines, the clinical policy and practice of some larger clinics and potentially changes to the guidelines for the treatment of chlamydia broadened the scope of testing and increased testing in asymptomatic patients which, in combination, likely had a positive effect on the control of LGV infection.

Temporal changes to adult case fatality risk of COVID-19 after vaccination in England between May 2020 and February 2022: a national surveillance study.

OBJECTIVES: Risk of death after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has fallen during the pandemic, largely due to immunity from vaccination. In England, the timing and extent of this reduction varied due to staggered eligibility during the primary vaccination campaign, based on age and clinical risk group. Duration of protection is less well understood. Our objective was to estimate the case fatality risk (CFR) by vaccination status and time since last dose during a period of widespread community testing, to better understand the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and duration of protection. DESIGN: SARS-CoV-2 cases diagnosed between May 2020 and February 2022 were linked to vaccine records from the National Immunisation Management System. CFR was calculated as the proportion of cases that died of COVID-19 per the death certificate, aggregated by week of specimen and stratified by 10-year age band and vaccination status. SETTING: England, UK. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 10,616,148 SARS-CoV-2 cases, aged ≥18 years, recorded by England's laboratory reporting system. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Case fatality risk of COVID-19, stratified by age band and vaccination status. RESULTS: Overall, a reduction in CFR was observed for all age bands, with a clear temporal link to when the age group became eligible for primary vaccination and then the first booster. CFR increased with age (0.3% 50-59 years; 1.2% 60-69; 4.7% 70-79; 16.3% 80+) and was highest in the unvaccinated - albeit a reduction was observed over time. The highest CFR was seen in the unvaccinated 80+ group prior to vaccination rollout (30.6%). CFR was consistently lowest in vaccinated populations within 6 months of last dose, yet increased after over 6 months elapsed since last dose, across all age bands. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 CFR reduced after vaccination, with the lowest CFR seen across all age bands when vaccinated up to 6 months prior to specimen date. This provides some evidence for continued booster doses in older age groups.

Household transmission of COVID-19 cases associated with SARS-CoV-2 delta variant (B.1.617.2): national case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant (B.1.617.2), first detected in India, has rapidly become the dominant variant in England. Early reports suggest this variant has an increased growth rate suggesting increased transmissibility. This study indirectly assessed differences in transmissibility between the emergent Delta variant compared to the previously dominant Alpha variant (B.1.1.7). METHODS: A matched case-control study was conducted to estimate the odds of household transmission (≥ 2 cases within 14 days) for Delta variant index cases compared with Alpha cases. Cases were derived from national surveillance data (March to June 2021). One-to-two matching was undertaken on geographical location of residence, time period of testing and property type, and a multivariable conditional logistic regression model was used for analysis. FINDINGS: In total 5,976 genomically sequenced index cases in household clusters were matched to 11,952 sporadic index cases (single case within a household). 43.3% (n=2,586) of cases in household clusters were confirmed Delta variant compared to 40.4% (n= 4,824) of sporadic cases. The odds ratio of household transmission was 1.70 among Delta variant cases (95% CI 1.48-1.95, p <0.001) compared to Alpha cases after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, index of multiple deprivation (IMD), number of household contacts and vaccination status of index case. INTERPRETATION: We found evidence of increased household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, potentially explaining its success at displacing Alpha variant as the dominant strain in England. With the Delta variant now having been detected in many countries worldwide, the understanding of the transmissibility of this variant is important for informing infection prevention and control policies internationally.

Case-control study to estimate odds of death within 28 days of positive test for SARS-CoV-2 prior to vaccination for residents of long-term care facilities in England, 2020-2021.

BACKGROUND: Persons living in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are presumed to be at higher risk of adverse outcomes from SARS-CoV-2 infection due to increasing age and frailty, but the magnitude of increased risk is not well quantified. METHODS: After linking demographic and mortality data for cases with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 2020 and January 2021 in England, a random sample of 6000 persons who died and 36 000 who did not die within 28 days of a positive test was obtained from the dataset of 3 020 800 patients. Based on an address-matching process, the residence type of each case was categorised into one of private home and residential or nursing LTCF. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted. RESULTS: Multivariable analysis showed that an interaction effect between age and residence type determined the outcome. Compared with a 60-year-old person not living in LTCF, the adjusted OR (aOR) for same-aged persons living in residential and nursing LTCFs was 1.77 (95% CI 1.21 to 2.6, p=0.0017) and 3.95 (95% CI 2.77 to 5.64, p<0.0001), respectively. At 90 years of age, aORs were 0.87 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.06, p=0.21) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.9, p=0.001), respectively. The model had an overall accuracy of 94.2% (94.2%) when applied to the full dataset of 2 978 800 patients. CONCLUSION: This study found that residents of LTCFs in England had higher odds of death up to 80 years of age. Beyond 80 years, there was no difference in the odds of death for LTCF residents compared with those in the wider community.

Risk of hospital admission for patients with SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: cohort analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relation between diagnosis of covid-19 with SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 (also known as variant of concern 202012/01) and the risk of hospital admission compared with diagnosis with wild-type SARS-CoV-2 variants. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis. SETTING: Community based SARS-CoV-2 testing in England, individually linked with hospital admission data. PARTICIPANTS: 839 278 patients with laboratory confirmed covid-19, of whom 36 233 had been admitted to hospital within 14 days, tested between 23 November 2020 and 31 January 2021 and analysed at a laboratory with an available TaqPath assay that enables assessment of S-gene target failure (SGTF), a proxy test for the B.1.1.7 variant. Patient data were stratified by age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, region of residence, and date of positive test. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hospital admission between one and 14 days after the first positive SARS-CoV-2 test. RESULTS: 27 710 (4.7%) of 592 409 patients with SGTF variants and 8523 (3.5%) of 246 869 patients without SGTF variants had been admitted to hospital within one to 14 days. The stratum adjusted hazard ratio of hospital admission was 1.52 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.57) for patients with covid-19 infected with SGTF variants, compared with those infected with non-SGTF variants. The effect was modified by age (P<0.001), with hazard ratios of 0.93-1.21 in patients younger than 20 years with versus without SGTF variants, 1.29 in those aged 20-29, and 1.45-1.65 in those aged ≥30 years. The adjusted absolute risk of hospital admission within 14 days was 4.7% (95% confidence interval 4.6% to 4.7%) for patients with SGTF variants and 3.5% (3.4% to 3.5%) for those with non-SGTF variants. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that the risk of hospital admission is higher for people infected with the B.1.1.7 variant compared with wild-type SARS-CoV-2, likely reflecting a more severe disease. The higher severity may be specific to adults older than 30 years.

Accessory Genome Dynamics and Structural Variation of Shigella from Persistent Infections.

Shigellosis is a diarrheal disease caused mainly by Shigella flexneri and Shigella sonnei Infection is thought to be largely self-limiting, with short- to medium-term and serotype-specific immunity provided following clearance. However, cases of men who have sex with men (MSM)-associated shigellosis have been reported where Shigella of the same serotype were serially sampled from individuals between 1 and 1,862 days apart, possibly due to persistent carriage or reinfection with the same serotype. Here, we investigate the accessory genome dynamics of MSM-associated S. flexneri and S. sonnei isolates serially sampled from individual patients at various days apart to shed light on the adaptation of these important pathogens during infection. We find that pairs likely associated with persistent infection/carriage and with a smaller single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) distance, demonstrated significantly less variation in accessory genome content than pairs likely associated with reinfection, and with a greater SNP distance. We observed antimicrobial resistance acquisition during Shigella carriage, including the gain of an extended-spectrum beta-lactamase gene during carriage. Finally, we explored large chromosomal structural variations and rearrangements in seven (five chronic and two reinfection associated) pairs of S. flexneri 3a isolates from an MSM-associated epidemic sublineage, which revealed variations at several common regions across isolate pairs, mediated by insertion sequence elements and comprising a distinct predicted functional profile. This study provides insight on the variation of accessory genome dynamics and large structural genomic changes in Shigella during persistent infection/carriage. In addition, we have also created a complete reference genome and biobanked isolate of the globally important pathogen, S. flexneri 3a.IMPORTANCEShigella spp. are Gram-negative bacteria that are the etiological agent of shigellosis, the second most common cause of diarrheal illness among children under the age of five in low-income countries. In high-income countries, shigellosis is also a sexually transmissible disease among men who have sex with men. Within the latter setting, we have captured prolonged and/or recurrent infection with shigellae of the same serotype, challenging the belief that Shigella infection is short lived and providing an early opportunity to study the evolution of the pathogen over the course of infection. Using this recently emerged transmission scenario, we comprehensively characterize the genomic changes that occur over the course of individual infection with Shigella and uncover a distinct functional profile of variable genomic regions, findings that have relevance for other Enterobacteriaceae.