Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds.

Changes in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.

Non-linear models of species' responses to environmental and spatial gradients.

Species' responses to broad-scale environmental or spatial gradients are typically unimodal. Current models of species' responses along gradients tend to be overly simplistic (e.g., linear, quadratic or Gaussian GLMs), or are suitably flexible (e.g., splines, GAMs) but lack direct ecologically interpretable parameters. We describe a parametric framework for species-environment non-linear modelling ('senlm'). The framework has two components: (i) a non-linear parametric mathematical function to model the mean species response along a gradient that allows asymmetry, flattening/peakedness or bimodality; and (ii) a statistical error distribution tailored for ecological data types, allowing intrinsic mean-variance relationships and zero-inflation. We demonstrate the utility of this model framework, highlighting the flexibility of a range of possible mean functions and a broad range of potential error distributions, in analyses of fish species' abundances along a depth gradient, and how they change over time and at different latitudes.

The rise of a marine generalist predator and the fall of beta diversity.

Determining the importance of physical and biological drivers in shaping biodiversity in diverse ecosystems remains a global challenge. Advancements have been made towards this end in large marine ecosystems with several studies suggesting environmental forcing as the primary driver. However, both empirical and theoretical studies point to additional drivers of changes in diversity involving trophic interactions and, in particular, predation. Moreover, a more integrated but less common approach to the assessment of biodiversity changes involves analyses of spatial ß diversity, whereas most studies to date assess only changes in species richness (α diversity). Recent research has established that when cod, a dominant generalist predator, was overfished and collapsed in a northwest Atlantic food web, spatial ß diversity increased; that is, the spatial structure of the fish assemblage became increasingly heterogeneous. If cod were to recover, would this situation be reversible, given the inherent complexity and non-linear dynamics that typify such systems? A dramatic increase of cod in an ecologically similar large marine ecosystem may provide an answer. Here we show that spatial ß diversity of fish assemblages in the Barents Sea decreased with increasing cod abundance, while decadal scale changes in temperature did not play a significant role. These findings indicate a reversibility of the fish assemblage structure in response to changing levels of an apex predator and highlight the frequently overlooked importance of trophic interactions in determining large-scale biodiversity patterns. As increased cod abundance was largely driven by changes in fisheries management, our study also shows that management policies and practices, particularly those involving apex predators, can have a strong effect in shaping spatial diversity patterns, and one should not restrict the focus to effects of climate change alone.

Changes in key traits versus depth and latitude suggest energy-efficient locomotion, opportunistic feeding and light lead to adaptive morphologies of marine fishes.

Understanding patterns and processes governing biodiversity along broad-scale environmental gradients, such as depth or latitude, requires an assessment of not just taxonomic richness, but also morphological and functional traits of organisms. Studies of traits can help to identify major selective forces acting on morphology. Currently, little is known regarding patterns of variation in the traits of fishes at broad spatial scales. The aims of this study were (a) to identify a suite of key traits in marine fishes that would allow assessment of morphological variability across broad-scale depth (50-1200 m) and latitudinal (29.15-50.91°S) gradients, and (b) to characterize patterns in these traits across depth and latitude for 144 species of ray-finned fishes in New Zealand waters. Here, we describe three new morphological traits, namely fin-base-to-perimeter ratio, jaw-length-to-mouth-width ratio, and pectoral-fin-base-to-body-depth ratio. Four other morphological traits essential for locomotion and food acquisition that are commonly measured in fishes were also included in the study. Spatial ecological distributions of individual fish species were characterized in response to a standardized replicated sampling design, and morphological measurements were obtained for each species from preserved museum specimens. With increasing depth, fishes, on average, became larger and more elongate, with higher fin-base-to-perimeter ratio and larger jaw-length-to-mouth-width ratio, all of which translates into a more eel-like anguilliform morphology. Variation in mean trait values along the depth gradient was stronger at lower latitudes for fin-base-to-perimeter ratio, elongation and total body length. Average eye size peaked at intermediate depths (500-700 m) and increased with increasing latitude at 700 m. These findings suggest that, in increasingly extreme environments, fish morphology shifts towards a body shape that favours an energy-efficient undulatory swimming style and an increase in jaw-length vs. mouth width for opportunistic feeding. Furthermore, increases in eye size with both depth and latitude indicate that changes in both the average ambient light conditions as well as seasonal variations in day-length can act to select ecomorphological adaptations in fishes.

Measures of precision for dissimilarity-based multivariate analysis of ecological communities.

Ecological studies require key decisions regarding the appropriate size and number of sampling units. No methods currently exist to measure precision for multivariate assemblage data when dissimilarity-based analyses are intended to follow. Here, we propose a pseudo multivariate dissimilarity-based standard error (MultSE) as a useful quantity for assessing sample-size adequacy in studies of ecological communities. Based on sums of squared dissimilarities, MultSE measures variability in the position of the centroid in the space of a chosen dissimilarity measure under repeated sampling for a given sample size. We describe a novel double resampling method to quantify uncertainty in MultSE values with increasing sample size. For more complex designs, values of MultSE can be calculated from the pseudo residual mean square of a permanova model, with the double resampling done within appropriate cells in the design. R code functions for implementing these techniques, along with ecological examples, are provided.

The role of a dominant predator in shaping biodiversity over space and time in a marine ecosystem.

1. Exploitation of living marine resources has resulted in major changes to populations of targeted species and functional groups of large-bodied species in the ocean. However, the effects of overfishing and collapse of large top predators on the broad-scale biodiversity of oceanic ecosystems remain largely unexplored. 2. Populations of the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were overfished and several collapsed in the early 1990s across Atlantic Canada, providing a unique opportunity to study potential ecosystem-level effects of the reduction of a dominant predator on fish biodiversity, and to identify how such effects might interact with other environmental factors, such as changes in climate, over time. 3. We combined causal modelling with model selection and multimodel inference to analyse 41 years of fishery-independent survey data (1970-2010) and quantify ecosystem-level effects of overfishing and climate variation on the biodiversity of fishes across a broad area (172 000 km(2) ) of the Scotian Shelf. 4. We found that alpha and beta diversity increased with decreases in cod occurrence; fish communities were less homogeneous and more variable in systems where cod no longer dominated. These effects were most pronounced in the colder north-eastern parts of the Scotian Shelf. 5. Our results provide strong evidence that intensive harvesting (and collapse) of marine apex predators can have large impacts on biodiversity, with far-reaching consequences for ecological stability across an entire ecosystem.

Biotic homogenisation and differentiation as directional change in beta diversity: synthesising driver-response relationships to develop conceptual models across ecosystems.

Biotic homogenisation is defined as decreasing dissimilarity among ecological assemblages sampled within a given spatial area over time. Biotic differentiation, in turn, is defined as increasing dissimilarity over time. Overall, changes in the spatial dissimilarities among assemblages (termed 'beta diversity') is an increasingly recognised feature of broader biodiversity change in the Anthropocene. Empirical evidence of biotic homogenisation and biotic differentiation remains scattered across different ecosystems. Most meta-analyses quantify the prevalence and direction of change in beta diversity, rather than attempting to identify underlying ecological drivers of such changes. By conceptualising the mechanisms that contribute to decreasing or increasing dissimilarity in the composition of ecological assemblages across space, environmental managers and conservation practitioners can make informed decisions about what interventions may be required to sustain biodiversity and can predict potential biodiversity outcomes of future disturbances. We systematically reviewed and synthesised published empirical evidence for ecological drivers of biotic homogenisation and differentiation across terrestrial, marine, and freshwater realms to derive conceptual models that explain changes in spatial beta diversity. We pursued five key themes in our review: (i) temporal environmental change; (ii) disturbance regime; (iii) connectivity alteration and species redistribution; (iv) habitat change; and (v) biotic and trophic interactions. Our first conceptual model highlights how biotic homogenisation and differentiation can occur as a function of changes in local (alpha) diversity or regional (gamma) diversity, independently of species invasions and losses due to changes in species occurrence among assemblages. Second, the direction and magnitude of change in beta diversity depends on the interaction between spatial variation (patchiness) and temporal variation (synchronicity) of disturbance events. Third, in the context of connectivity and species redistribution, divergent beta diversity outcomes occur as different species have different dispersal characteristics, and the magnitude of beta diversity change associated with species invasions also depends strongly on alpha and gamma diversity prior to species invasion. Fourth, beta diversity is positively linked with spatial environmental variability, such that biotic homogenisation and differentiation occur when environmental heterogeneity decreases or increases, respectively. Fifth, species interactions can influence beta diversity via habitat modification, disease, consumption (trophic dynamics), competition, and by altering ecosystem productivity. Our synthesis highlights the multitude of mechanisms that cause assemblages to be more or less spatially similar in composition (taxonomically, functionally, phylogenetically) through time. We consider that future studies should aim to enhance our collective understanding of ecological systems by clarifying the underlying mechanisms driving homogenisation or differentiation, rather than focusing only on reporting the prevalence and direction of change in beta diversity, per se.

The effects of translocation-induced isolation and fragmentation on the cultural evolution of bird song.

Understanding the divergence of behavioural signals in isolated populations is critical to knowing how certain barriers to gene flow can develop. For many bird species, songs are essential for conspecific recognition and mate choice. Measuring the rate of song divergence in natural populations is difficult, but translocations of endangered birds to isolated islands for conservation purposes can yield insights, as the age and source of founder populations are completely known. We found significant and rapid evolution in the structure and diversity of bird song in North Island saddlebacks, Philesturnus rufusater, in New Zealand, with two distinct lineages evolving in < 50 years. The strong environmental filters of serial translocations resulted in cultural bottlenecks that generated drift and reduced song variability within islands. This rapid divergence coupled with loss of song diversity has important implications for the behavioural evolution of this species, demonstrating previously unrecognised biological consequences of conservation management.

Incorporating the intraspecific occupancy-abundance relationship into zero-inflated models.

Zero-inflated versions of standard distributions for count data are often required in order to account for excess zeros when modeling the abundance of organisms. Such distributions typically have as parameters lambda, the mean of the count distribution, and pi, the probability of an excess zero. Implementations of zero-inflated models in ecology typically model lambda using a set of predictor variables, and pi is fit either as a constant or with its own separate model. Neither of these approaches makes use of any relationship that might exist between pi and lambda. However, for many species, the rate of occupancy is closely and positively related to its average abundance. Here, this relationship was incorporated into the model for zero inflation by functionally linking pi to lambda, and was demonstrated in a study of snapper (Pagrus auratus) in and around a marine reserve. This approach has several potential practical advantages, including better computational performance and more straightforward model interpretation. It is concluded that, where appropriate, directly linking pi to lambda can produce more ecologically accurate and parsimonious statistical models of species abundance data.

Navigating the multiple meanings of ß diversity: a roadmap for the practicing ecologist.

A recent increase in studies of ß diversity has yielded a confusing array of concepts, measures and methods. Here, we provide a roadmap of the most widely used and ecologically relevant approaches for analysis through a series of mission statements. We distinguish two types of ß diversity: directional turnover along a gradient vs. non-directional variation. Different measures emphasize different properties of ecological data. Such properties include the degree of emphasis on presence/absence vs. relative abundance information and the inclusion vs. exclusion of joint absences. Judicious use of multiple measures in concert can uncover the underlying nature of patterns in ß diversity for a given dataset. A case study of Indonesian coral assemblages shows the utility of a multi-faceted approach. We advocate careful consideration of relevant questions, matched by appropriate analyses. The rigorous application of null models will also help to reveal potential processes driving observed patterns in ß diversity.

Much ado about nothings: using zero similarity points in distance-decay curves.

Distance decay is used to describe the (usually exponential) decay in ecological similarity of assemblages between two sites as a function of their distance apart along an environmental gradient. Exponential distance-decay curves are routinely fitted by calculating the ecological similarity between each pair of sites, and fitting a linear regression to the points on a scatter plot of log-similarity vs. distance (x-axis). However, pairs of sites where the assemblages have no species in common pose a problem, because the similarity is zero, and the log transformation cannot be applied. Common fixes to this problem (i.e., either removing or transforming the zero values) are shown to have undesirable consequences and to give widely disparate estimates. A new method is presented as a special case of a generalized dissimilarity model. It is fitted very quickly and easily using existing software, and it does not require removal or transformation of the zero similarity points. Its simplicity makes it convenient for use in conjunction with the resampling methods that are routinely employed to test hypotheses, to obtain standard errors of estimated parameters, or to compare distance-decay curves. A word of caution about standard application of the bootstrap is noted, and modified bootstrap and jackknife alternatives are demonstrated.

High functional diversity in deep-sea fish communities and increasing intraspecific trait variation with increasing latitude.

Variation in both inter- and intraspecific traits affects community dynamics, yet we know little regarding the relative importance of external environmental filters versus internal biotic interactions that shape the functional space of communities along broad-scale environmental gradients, such as latitude, elevation, or depth. We examined changes in several key aspects of functional alpha diversity for marine fishes along depth and latitude gradients by quantifying intra- and interspecific richness, dispersion, and regularity in functional trait space. We derived eight functional traits related to food acquisition and locomotion and calculated seven complementary indices of functional diversity for 144 species of marine ray-finned fishes along large-scale depth (50-1200 m) and latitudinal gradients (29°-51° S) in New Zealand waters. Traits were derived from morphological measurements taken directly from footage obtained using Baited Remote Underwater Stereo-Video systems and museum specimens. We partitioned functional variation into intra- and interspecific components for the first time using a PERMANOVA approach. We also implemented two tree-based diversity metrics in a functional distance-based context for the first time: namely, the variance in pairwise functional distance and the variance in nearest neighbor distance. Functional alpha diversity increased with increasing depth and decreased with increasing latitude. More specifically, the dispersion and mean nearest neighbor distances among species in trait space and intraspecific trait variability all increased with depth, whereas functional hypervolume (richness) was stable across depth. In contrast, functional hypervolume, dispersion, and regularity indices all decreased with increasing latitude; however, intraspecific trait variation increased with latitude, suggesting that intraspecific trait variability becomes increasingly important at higher latitudes. These results suggest that competition within and among species are key processes shaping functional multidimensional space for fishes in the deep sea. Increasing morphological dissimilarity with increasing depth may facilitate niche partitioning to promote coexistence, whereas abiotic filtering may be the dominant process structuring communities with increasing latitude.

Transmission dynamics of an antimicrobial resistant Campylobacter jejuni lineage in New Zealand's commercial poultry network.

Understanding the relative contribution of different between-farm transmission pathways is essential in guiding recommendations for mitigating disease spread. This study investigated the association between contact pathways linking poultry farms in New Zealand and the genetic relatedness of antimicrobial resistant Campylobacter jejuni Sequence Type 6964 (ST-6964), with the aim of identifying the most likely contact pathways that contributed to its rapid spread across the industry. Whole-genome sequencing was performed on 167C. jejuni ST-6964 isolates sampled from across 30 New Zealand commercial poultry enterprises. The genetic relatedness between isolates was determined using whole genome multilocus sequence typing (wgMLST). Permutational multivariate analysis of variance and distance-based linear models were used to explore the strength of the relationship between pairwise genetic associations among the C. jejuni isolates and each of several pairwise distance matrices, indicating either the geographical distance between farms or the network distance of transportation vehicles. Overall, a significant association was found between the pairwise genetic relatedness of the C. jejuni isolates and the parent company, the road distance and the network distance of transporting feed vehicles. This result suggests that the transportation of feed within the commercial poultry industry as well as other local contacts between flocks, such as the movements of personnel, may have played a significant role in the spread of C. jejuni. However, further information on the historical contact patterns between farms is needed to fully characterise the risk of these pathways and to understand how they could be targeted to reduce the spread of C. jejuni.

Microbiome and environment explain the absence of correlations between consumers and their diet in Bornean microsnails.

Classical ecological theory posits that species partition resources such that each species occupies a unique resource niche. In general, the availability of more resources allows more species to co-occur. Thus, a strong relationship between communities of consumers and their resources is expected. However, correlations may be influenced by other layers in the food web, or by the environment. Here we show, by studying the relationship between communities of consumers (land snails) and individual diets (from seed plants), that there is in fact no direct, or at most a weak but negative, relationship. However, we found that the diversity of the individual microbiome positively correlates with both consumer community diversity and individual diet diversity in three target species. Moreover, these correlations were affected by various environmental variables, such as anthropogenic activity, habitat island size, and a possibly important nutrient source, guano runoff from nearby caves. Our results suggest that the microbiome and the environment explain the absence of correlations between diet and consumer community diversity. Hence, we advocate that microbiome inventories are routinely added to any community dietary analysis, which our study shows can be done with relatively little extra effort. Our approach presents the tools to quickly obtain an overview of the relationships between consumers and their resources. We anticipate our approach to be useful for ecologists and environmentalists studying different communities in a local food web.

Species, gender, and identity: cracking petrels' sociochemical code.

Avian chemosignaling remains relatively unexplored, but its potential importance in birds' social behaviors is becoming recognized. Procellariiform seabirds provide particularly appropriate models for investigating these topics as they possess a well-developed olfactory system and unequalled associated capabilities. We present here results from a detailed chemical examination of the uropygial secretions (the main source of avian exogenous chemicals) from 2 petrel species, Antarctic prions and blue petrels. Using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry techniques and recently developed multivariate tools, we demonstrate that the secretions contain critical socioecological information such as species, gender, and individual identity. Importantly, these chemosignals correlate with some of the birds' olfactory behaviors demonstrated in the field. The molecules found to be associated with social information were essentially large unsaturated compounds, suggesting that these may be precursors of, or correlates to the actual airborne signals. Although the species-specific chemosignal may be involved in interspecific competition at the breeding grounds, the role of the sexually specific chemosignal remains unclear. The existence of individually specific signals (i.e., chemical signatures) in these birds has important implications for processes such as individual recognition and genetically based mate choice already suspected for this group. Our results open promising avenues of research for the study of avian chemical communication.

Patterns and causes of species richness: a general simulation model for macroecology.

Understanding the causes of spatial variation in species richness is a major research focus of biogeography and macroecology. Gridded environmental data and species richness maps have been used in increasingly sophisticated curve-fitting analyses, but these methods have not brought us much closer to a mechanistic understanding of the patterns. During the past two decades, macroecologists have successfully addressed technical problems posed by spatial autocorrelation, intercorrelation of predictor variables and non-linearity. However, curve-fitting approaches are problematic because most theoretical models in macroecology do not make quantitative predictions, and they do not incorporate interactions among multiple forces. As an alternative, we propose a mechanistic modelling approach. We describe computer simulation models of the stochastic origin, spread, and extinction of species' geographical ranges in an environmentally heterogeneous, gridded domain and describe progress to date regarding their implementation. The output from such a general simulation model (GSM) would, at a minimum, consist of the simulated distribution of species ranges on a map, yielding the predicted number of species in each grid cell of the domain. In contrast to curve-fitting analysis, simulation modelling explicitly incorporates the processes believed to be affecting the geographical ranges of species and generates a number of quantitative predictions that can be compared to empirical patterns. We describe three of the 'control knobs' for a GSM that specify simple rules for dispersal, evolutionary origins and environmental gradients. Binary combinations of different knob settings correspond to eight distinct simulation models, five of which are already represented in the literature of macroecology. The output from such a GSM will include the predicted species richness per grid cell, the range size frequency distribution, the simulated phylogeny and simulated geographical ranges of the component species, all of which can be compared to empirical patterns. Challenges to the development of the GSM include the measurement of goodness of fit (GOF) between observed data and model predictions, as well as the estimation, optimization and interpretation of the model parameters. The simulation approach offers new insights into the origin and maintenance of species richness patterns, and may provide a common framework for investigating the effects of contemporary climate, evolutionary history and geometric constraints on global biodiversity gradients. With further development, the GSM has the potential to provide a conceptual bridge between macroecology and historical biogeography.

A pathway for multivariate analysis of ecological communities using copulas.

We describe a new pathway for multivariate analysis of data consisting of counts of species abundances that includes two key components: copulas, to provide a flexible joint model of individual species, and dissimilarity-based methods, to integrate information across species and provide a holistic view of the community. Individual species are characterized using suitable (marginal) statistical distributions, with the mean, the degree of over-dispersion, and/or zero-inflation being allowed to vary among a priori groups of sampling units. Associations among species are then modeled using copulas, which allow any pair of disparate types of variables to be coupled through their cumulative distribution function, while maintaining entirely the separate individual marginal distributions appropriate for each species. A Gaussian copula smoothly captures changes in an index of association that excludes joint absences in the space of the original species variables. A permutation-based filter with exact family-wise error can optionally be used a priori to reduce the dimensionality of the copula estimation problem. We describe in detail a Monte Carlo expectation maximization algorithm for efficient estimation of the copula correlation matrix with discrete marginal distributions (counts). The resulting fully parameterized copula models can be used to simulate realistic ecological community data under fully specified null or alternative hypotheses. Distributions of community centroids derived from simulated data can then be visualized in ordinations of ecologically meaningful dissimilarity spaces. Multinomial mixtures of data drawn from copula models also yield smooth power curves in dissimilarity-based settings. Our proposed analysis pathway provides new opportunities to combine model-based approaches with dissimilarity-based methods to enhance understanding of ecological systems. We demonstrate implementation of the pathway through an ecological example, where associations among fish species were found to increase after the establishment of a marine reserve.

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the bacterial communities in stream epilithic biofilms.

The spatial and temporal variability in bacterial communities within freshwater systems is poorly understood. The bacterial composition of stream epilithic biofilms across a range of different spatial and temporal scales both within and between streams and across the profile of individual stream rocks was characterised using a community DNA-fingerprinting technique (Automated Ribosomal Intergenic Spacer Analysis, ARISA). The differences in bacterial community structure between two different streams were found to be greater than the spatial variability within each stream site, and were larger than the weekly temporal variation measured over a 10-week study period. Greater variations in bacterial community profiles were detected on different faces of individual stream rocks than between whole rocks sampled within a 9-m stream section. Stream temperature was found to be the most important determinant of bacterial community variability using distance-based redundancy analysis (dbRDA) of ARISA data, which may have broad implications for riparian zone management and ecological change as a consequence of global warming. The combination of ARISA with multivariate statistical methods and ordination, such as multidimensional scaling (MDS), permutational manova and RDA, provided rapid and effective methods for quantifying and visualising variation in bacterial community structure, and to identify potential drivers of ecological change.

Analyses of delta(13)C and delta(18)O in tree rings of Callitris columellaris provide evidence of a change in stomatal control of photosynthesis in response to regional changes in climate.

We examined relationships between stable isotopes of carbon (delta(13)C) and oxygen (delta(18)O) in tree rings of Callitris columellaris F. Muell in the semi-arid Pilbara region of north-western Australia. To test the hypothesis that stomatal control of photosynthesis decreases during drier periods, we developed delta(13)C and delta(18)O chronologies spanning 1919-1999, and used a permutation regression approach to relate a 21-year running correlation between delta(13)C and delta(18)O to rainfall and temperature at Marble Bar and our study site. The relationship between delta(13)C and delta(18)O switched from being always negative before 1955 to being consistently positive after 1976, suggesting an increase in stomatal control of photosynthesis in recent decades. Changes in the delta(13)C-delta(18)O relationship reflected changes in rainfall, which has increased in the region by 30% since 1976. The correlation between delta(13)C and delta(18)O was positively related to the 21-year running mean of normalized rainfall anomalies at both the study site (P = 0.045, Adj. r(2) = 0.47) and Marble Bar (P = 0.046, Adj. r(2) = 0.48). In addition, the delta(13)C-delta(18)O correlation was negatively related (P = 0.047, Adj. r(2) = 0.61) to temperatures at Marble Bar. Our interpretation of the role of changes in climate affecting the relationship between tree-ring delta(13)C and delta(18)O is supported by evidence from the isotope composition of foliage samples: foliar delta(13)C and delta(18)O were negatively correlated with log stomatal conductance (delta(13)C, r = -0.41; delta(18)O, r = -0.42), whereas the correlation between foliar delta(13)C and delta(18)O was positive (r = 0.63, P = 0.027) after the summer wet period. Our data indicate that stomatal control of photosynthesis in Callitris adjusts to region-wide changes in climate and that, in a warmer and drier world, trees might adapt by increasing non-stomatal control of photosynthesis.

Genetic structure of the grey side-gilled sea slug (Pleurobranchaea maculata) in coastal waters of New Zealand.

Pleurobranchaea maculata is a rarely studied species of the Heterobranchia found throughout the south and western Pacific-and recently recorded in Argentina-whose population genetic structure is unknown. Interest in the species was sparked in New Zealand following a series of dog deaths caused by ingestions of slugs containing high levels of the neurotoxin tetrodotoxin. Here we describe the genetic structure and demographic history of P. maculata populations from five principle locations in New Zealand based on extensive analyses of 12 microsatellite loci and the COI and CytB regions of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). Microsatellite data showed significant differentiation between northern and southern populations with population structure being associated with previously described regional variations in tetrodotoxin concentrations. However, mtDNA sequence data did not support such structure, revealing a star-shaped haplotype network with estimates of expansion time suggesting a population expansion in the Pleistocene era. Inclusion of publicly available mtDNA sequence sea slugs from Argentina did not alter the star-shaped network. We interpret our data as indicative of a single founding population that fragmented following geographical changes that brought about the present day north-south divide in New Zealand waters. Lack of evidence of cryptic species supports data indicating that differences in toxicity of individuals among regions are a consequence of differences in diet.