Insights into Controlling the Spread of COVID-19: A Study Inspired by Seven of the Earliest Vaccinated Countries.

Background: The aim of the study is to derive deeper insights into the control of the spread of COVID-19 during the second half of 2021, from seven countries that are among the earliest to have accelerated the deployment of COVID-19 vaccines. Methodology. This study used data from the Global COVID-19 Index and Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. Data was extracted on the 5th of each month from July to December 2021. Seven countries were selected-United Kingdom, United States of America, Israel, Canada, France, Italy, and Austria. The sample comprised number of new cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths due to COVID-19, government stringency measures, partial and full vaccination coverage, and changes in human mobility. Principal component analysis was conducted, and the results were interpreted and visualized through 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional plots to reveal the systematic patterns of the data. Results: The first three principal components captured around 77.3% of variance in the data. The first component was driven by the spread of COVID-19 (31.6%), the second by mobility activities (transit, retail, and recreational) (24.3%), whereas the third by vaccination coverage, workplace-related mobility, and government stringency measures (21.4%). Visualizations showed lower or moderate levels of severity in COVID-19 during this period for most countries. By contrast, the surge in the USA was more severe especially in September 2021. Human mobility activities peaked in September for most countries and then receded in the following months as more stringent government measures were imposed, and countries began to grapple with a surge in COVID-19 cases. Conclusion: This study delineated the spread of COVID-19, human mobility patterns, widespread vaccination coverage, and government stringency measures on the overall control of COVID-19. While at least moderate levels of stringency measures are needed, high vaccine coverage is particularly important in curbing the spread of this disease.

Multivariate visualization of the global COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison of 161 countries.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to visualize the global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic over the first 90 days, through the principal component analysis approach of dimensionality reduction. METHODS: This study used data from the Global COVID-19 Index provided by PEMANDU Associates. The sample, representing 161 countries, comprised the number of confirmed cases, deaths, stringency indices, population density and GNI per capita (USD). Correlation matrices were computed to reveal the association between the variables at three time points: day-30, day-60 and day-90. Three separate principal component analyses were computed for similar time points, and several standardized plots were produced. RESULTS: Confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID-19 showed positive but weak correlation with stringency and GNI per capita. Through principal component analysis, the first two principal components captured close to 70% of the variance of the data. The first component can be viewed as the severity of the COVID-19 surge in countries, whereas the second component largely corresponded to population density, followed by GNI per capita of countries. Multivariate visualization of the two dominating principal components provided a standardized comparison of the situation in the161 countries, performed on day-30, day-60 and day-90 since the first confirmed cases in countries worldwide. CONCLUSION: Visualization of the global spread of COVID-19 showed the unequal severity of the pandemic across continents and over time. Distinct patterns in clusters of countries, which separated many European countries from those in Africa, suggested a contrast in terms of stringency measures and wealth of a country. The African continent appeared to fare better in terms of the COVID-19 pandemic and the burden of mortality in the first 90 days. A noticeable worsening trend was observed in several countries in the same relative time frame of the disease's first 90 days, especially in the United States of America.