Oral anticoagulant prescribing among patients with cancer and atrial fibrillation in England, 2009-2019.

BACKGROUND: Anticoagulation of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and cancer is challenging because of their high risk for stroke and bleeding. Little is known of the variations of oral anticoagulant (OAC) prescribing in patients with AF with and without cancer. METHODS: Patients with first-time AF during 2009-2019 from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink were included. Cancer diagnosis was defined as a history of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, or hematological cancer. Competing-risk analysis was used to assess the risk of OAC prescribing in patients with AF and cancer adjusted for clinical and sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: Of 177,065 patients with AF, 11.7% had cancer. Compared to patients without cancer, patients with cancer were less likely to receive OAC: prostate cancer (subhazard ratio [SHR], 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-0.99), breast cancer (SHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.98), colorectal cancer (SHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88-0.99), hematological cancer (SHR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.65-0.75), and lung cancer (SHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.38-0.50). The cumulative incidence function (CIF) of OAC prescribing was lowest for patients with lung cancer and hematological cancer compared with patients without cancer. The difference between the CIF of OAC prescribing in patients with and without cancer becomes narrower in the most deprived areas. Elderly patients (aged ≥85 years) overall had the lowest CIF of OAC prescribing regardless of cancer status. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AF, underprescribing of OAC is independently associated with certain cancer types. Patients with hematological and lung cancer are the least likely to receive anticoagulation therapy compared with patients without cancer. Underprescribing of OAC in cancer is linked to old age. Further studies of patients with AF and cancer are warranted to assess the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation in certain cancer types.

Development of prescribing indicators related to opioid-related harm in patients with chronic pain in primary care-a modified e-Delphi study.

BACKGROUND: Long-term opioid use is associated with dependency, addiction, and serious adverse events. Although a framework to reduce inappropriate opioid prescribing exists, there is no consensus on prescribing indicators for preventable opioid-related problems in patients with chronic pain in primary care in the UK. This study aimed to identify opioid prescription scenarios for developing indicators for prescribing opioids to patients with chronic pain in primary care. METHODS: Scenarios of opioid prescribing indicators were identified from a literature review, guidelines, and government reports. Twenty-one indicators were identified and presented in various opioid scenarios concerning opioid-related harm and adverse effects, drug-drug interactions, and drug-disease interactions in certain disease conditions. After receiving ethics approval, two rounds of electronic Delphi panel technique surveys were conducted with 24 expert panellists from the UK (clinicians, pharmacists, and independent prescribers) from August 2020 to February 2021. Each indicator was rated on a 1-9 scale from inappropriate to appropriate. The score's median, 30th and 70th percentiles, and disagreement index were calculated. RESULTS: The panel unanimously agreed that 15 out of the 21 opioid prescribing scenarios were inappropriate, primarily due to their potential for causing harm to patients. This consensus was reflected in the low appropriateness scores (median ranging from 1 to 3). There were no scenarios with a high consensus that prescribing was appropriate. The indicators were considered inappropriate due to drug-disease interactions (n = 8), drug-drug interactions (n = 2), adverse effects (n = 3), and prescribed dose and duration (n = 2). Examples included prescribing opioids during pregnancy, concurrently with benzodiazepines, long-term without a laxative prescription and prescribing > 120-mg morphine milligram equivalent per day or long-term duration over 3 months after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The high agreement on opioid prescribing indicators indicates that these potentially hazardous consequences are relevant and concerning to healthcare practitioners. Future research is needed to evaluate the feasibility and implementation of these indicators within primary care settings. This research will provide valuable insights and evidence to support opioid prescribing and deprescribing strategies. Moreover, the findings will be crucial in informing primary care practitioners and shaping quality outcome frameworks and other initiatives to enhance the safety and quality of care in primary care settings.

Comparing the clinical practice and prescribing safety of locum and permanent doctors: observational study of primary care consultations in England.

BACKGROUND: Temporary doctors, known as locums, are a key component of the medical workforce in the NHS but evidence on differences in quality and safety between locum and permanent doctors is limited. We aimed to examine differences in the clinical practice, and prescribing safety for locum and permanent doctors working in primary care in England. METHODS: We accessed electronic health care records (EHRs) for 3.5 million patients from the CPRD GOLD database with linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics from 1st April 2010 to 31st March 2022. We used multi-level mixed effects logistic regression to compare consultations with locum and permanent GPs for several patient outcomes including general practice revisits; prescribing of antibiotics; strong opioids; hypnotics; A&E visits; emergency hospital admissions; admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions; test ordering; referrals; and prescribing safety indicators while controlling for patient and practice characteristics. RESULTS: Consultations with locum GPs were 22% more likely to involve a prescription for an antibiotic (OR = 1.22 (1.21 to 1.22)), 8% more likely to involve a prescription for a strong opioid (OR = 1.08 (1.06 to 1.09)), 4% more likely to be followed by an A&E visit on the same day (OR = 1.04 (1.01 to 1.08)) and 5% more likely to be followed by an A&E visit within 1 to 7 days (OR = 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08)). Consultations with a locum were 12% less likely to lead to a practice revisit within 7 days (OR = 0.88 (0.87 to 0.88)), 4% less likely to involve a prescription for a hypnotic (OR = 0.96 (0.94 to 0.98)), 15% less likely to involve a referral (OR = 0.85 (0.84 to 0.86)) and 19% less likely to involve a test (OR = 0.81 (0.80 to 0.82)). We found no evidence that emergency admissions, ACSC admissions and eight out of the eleven prescribing safety indicators were different if patients were seen by a locum or a permanent GP. CONCLUSIONS: Despite existing concerns, the clinical practice and performance of locum GPs did not appear to be systematically different from that of permanent GPs. The practice and performance of both locum and permanent GPs is likely shaped by the organisational setting and systems within which they work.

Risk of emergency hospital admission related to adverse events after antibiotic treatment in adults with a common infection: impact of COVID-19 and derivation and validation of risk prediction models.

BACKGROUND: With the global challenge of antimicrobial resistance intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic, evaluating adverse events (AEs) post-antibiotic treatment for common infections is crucial. This study aims to examines the changes in incidence rates of AEs during the COVID-19 pandemic and predict AE risk following antibiotic prescriptions for common infections, considering their previous antibiotic exposure and other long-term clinical conditions. METHODS: With the approval of NHS England, we used OpenSAFELY platform and analysed electronic health records from patients aged 18-110, prescribed antibiotics for urinary tract infection (UTI), lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI), upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), sinusitis, otitis externa, and otitis media between January 2019 and June 2023. We evaluated the temporal trends in the incidence rate of AEs for each infection, analysing monthly changes over time. The survival probability of emergency AE hospitalisation was estimated in each COVID-19 period (period 1: 1 January 2019 to 25 March 2020, period 2: 26 March 2020 to 8 March 2021, period 3: 9 March 2021 to 30 June 2023) using the Kaplan-Meier approach. Prognostic models, using Cox proportional hazards regression, were developed and validated to predict AE risk within 30 days post-prescription using the records in Period 1. RESULTS: Out of 9.4 million patients who received antibiotics, 0.6% of UTI, 0.3% of URTI, and 0.5% of LRTI patients experienced AEs. UTI and LRTI patients demonstrated a higher risk of AEs, with a noted increase in AE incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic. Higher comorbidity and recent antibiotic use emerged as significant AE predictors. The developed models exhibited good calibration and discrimination, especially for UTIs and LRTIs, with a C-statistic above 0.70. CONCLUSIONS: The study reveals a variable incidence of AEs post-antibiotic treatment for common infections, with UTI and LRTI patients facing higher risks. AE risks varied between infections and COVID-19 periods. These findings underscore the necessity for cautious antibiotic prescribing and call for further exploration into the intricate dynamics between antibiotic use, AEs, and the pandemic.

Prevalence, incidence, mortality, and healthcare resource use for generalised pustular psoriasis, palmoplantar pustulosis, and plaque psoriasis in England: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Generalised pustular psoriasis (GPP) and palmoplantar pustulosis (PPP) are chronic, inflammatory skin conditions. Accumulating evidence shows that GPP and PPP have different characteristics compared with plaque psoriasis and are distinct clinical entities. OBJECTIVES: To assess the epidemiology, comorbidities, mortality and healthcare use for patients with GPP and PPP compared with those with plaque psoriasis in England. METHODS: A cohort study involving analyses of longitudinal electronic health record data in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database and linked hospital and mortality data between 2008 and 2019. The primary study outcome was the incidence and prevalence rates for GPP, PPP and plaque psoriasis in England. Secondary outcomes included survival rates and healthcare resource use (HCRU) by disease type. RESULTS: We identified 373 patients with GPP, 1,828 with PPP and 224,223 with plaque psoriasis. The mean age was 55.9 years (standard deviation [SD]: 18.6) for patients with GPP, 51.5 years (SD: 16.4) for those with PPP, and 48.5 years (SD: 19.1) for those with plaque psoriasis; 62.5% and 65.9% of patients with GPP and PPP, respectively, were women, compared with 49.4% of those with plaque psoriasis. About half of the patients were overweight or obese at baseline (GPP, 48.6%; PPP, 56.0%; and plaque psoriasis, 45.9%). The incidence rates for GPP, PPP and plaque psoriasis were 0.25 (95% CI: 0.21-0.28), 2.01 (95% CI: 1.92-2.11) and 103.2 (95% CI: 102.5-103.9) per 100,000 person-years, respectively. From 2008 to 2019, the prevalence rates per 100,000 persons ranged from 1.61 to 3.0 for GPP, 1.1 to 18.7 for PPP and 1771.0 to 1903.8 for plaque psoriasis. Survival rates were lower for patients with GPP, particularly those who were over 55 years old and those with a history of ≥1 comorbidity in each cohort. HCRU was lower in the plaque psoriasis cohort and highest in the GPP cohort, particularly among those who had ≥1 GPP flare. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide further evidence that GPP is a distinct disease with different epidemiology, lower survival and higher HCRU than plaque psoriasis in England.

Socio-demographic variation in diagnosis of and prescribing for common mental illnesses among children and young people during the COVID-19 pandemic: time series analysis of primary care electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of children and young people (CYP) has been widely reported. Primary care electronic health records were utilised to examine trends in the diagnosing, recording and treating of these common mental disorders by ethnicity and social deprivation in Greater Manchester, England. METHODS: Time-series analyses conducted using Greater Manchester Care Record (GMCR) data examined all diagnosed episodes of anxiety disorders and depression and prescribing of anxiolytics and antidepressants among patients aged 6-24 years. The 41-month observation period was split into three epochs: Pre-pandemic (1/2019-2/2020); Pandemic Phase 1 (3/2020-6/2021); Pandemic Phase 2 (7/2021-5/2022). Rate ratios for all CYP specific to sex, age, ethnicity, and neighbourhood-level Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintile were modelled using negative binomial regression. RESULTS: Depression and anxiety disorder rates were highest in females, CYP aged 19-24, and White and 'Other' ethnic groups. During Pandemic Phase 1, rates for these diagnoses fell in all demographic subgroups and then rose to similar levels as those recorded pre-pandemic. In Pandemic Phase 2, rates in Black and Mixed-ethnicity females rose to a significantly greater degree (by 54% and 62%, respectively) than those in White females. Prescribing rates increased throughout the study period, with significantly greater rises observed in non-White females and males. The temporal trends were mostly homogeneous across deprivation quintiles. CONCLUSION: The observed fluctuations in frequency of recorded common mental illness diagnoses likely reflect service accessibility and patients' differential propensities to consult as well as changing levels of distress and psychopathology in the population. However, psychotropic medication prescribing increased throughout the observation period, possibly indicating a sustained decline in mental health among CYP, and also clinicians' responses to problems presented. The comparatively greater increases in frequencies of diagnosis recording and medication prescribing among ethnic minority groups warrants further investigation.

Adverse drug reactions and hospital admissions: Large case-control study of patients aged 65-100 years using linked English primary care and hospital data.

BACKGROUND: Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are common and a leading cause of injury. However, information on ADR risks of individual medicines is often limited. The aim of this hypothesis-generating study was to assess the relative importance of ADR-related and emergency hospital admission for large group of medication classes. METHODS: This study was a propensity-matched case-control study in English primary care. Data sources were Clinical Practice Research Databank and Aurum with longitudinal, anonymized, patient level electronic health records (EHRs) from English general practices linked to hospital records. Cases aged 65-100 with ADR-related or emergency hospital admission were matched to up to six controls by age, sex, morbidity and propensity scores for hospital admission risk. Medication groups with systemic administration as listed in the British National Formulary (used by prescribers for medication advice). Prescribing in the 84 days before the index date was assessed. Only medication groups with 50+ cases exposed were analysed. The outcomes of interest were ADR-related and emergency hospital admissions. Conditional logistic regression estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: The overall population included 121 546 cases with an ADR-related and 849 769 cases with emergency hospital admission. The percentage of hospitalizations with an ADR-related code for admission diagnosis was 1.83% and 6.58% with an ADR-related code at any time during hospitalization. A total of 137 medication groups was included in the main ADR analyses. Of these, 13 (9.5%) had statistically non-significant adjusted ORs, 58 (42.3%) statistically significant ORs between 1.0 and 1.5, 37 (27.0%) between 1.5-2.0, 18 (13.1%) between 2.0-3.0 and 11 (8.0%) 3.0 or higher. Several classes of antibiotics (including penicillins) were among medicines with largest ORs. Evaluating the 14 medications most often associated with ADRs, a strong association was found between the number of these medicines and the risk of ADR-related hospital admission (adjusted OR of 7.53 (95% CI 7.15-7.93) for those exposed to 6+ of these medicines). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: There is a need for a regular systematic assessment of the harm-benefit ratio of medicines, harvesting the information in large healthcare databases and combining it with causality assessment of individual case histories.

'None of Them Know Me': A Qualitative Study of the Implications of Locum Doctor Working for Patient Experience.

INTRODUCTION: There have been some concerns about the impact of temporary doctors, otherwise known as locums, on patient safety and the quality of care. Despite these concerns, research has paid little attention to the implications of locum working on patient experience. METHODS: A qualitative semi-structured interview study was conducted with 130 participants including locums, people working with locums and patients with experience of being seen or treated by locums. Analysis was conducted using a reflexive thematic approach and abductive analysis to position themes against wider knowledge. RESULTS: Three main themes were constructed through analysis: (1) Awareness and disclosure; patients were not always aware if their doctor was a locum, and there was some debate about whether patients had a right to know, particularly if locum working presented quality and safety risks. (2) Continuity and accessibility of care; access was regarded as priority for acute conditions, but for long-term or serious conditions, patients preferred to see a permanent doctor who knew their history, although it was acknowledged that locums could provide fresh perspectives. (3) Communication and practice; locums and patients described how consultations were approached differently when doctors worked as locums. Patients evaluated their interactions based on how safe they felt with practitioners. CONCLUSION: Patients reported that they were unlikely to have continuity of care with any doctors delivering care, regardless of their contractual status. Locums sometimes provided new perspectives on care which could be beneficial for patient outcomes, but for patients with long-term, complex or serious conditions continuity of care was important, and these patients may avoid or delay seeking care when locums are the only available option. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Patients and carers were involved in our study from inception to dissemination. Our Patient and Public Involvement (PPI) forum was involved throughout project design and planning and gave us feedback and guidance on research materials and outputs (e.g., study protocol, participant information sheets, survey tools, interview schedules, emerging findings). Our PPI forum co-produced our patient interview schedule, two members of our PPI forum led the patient focus groups and all were involved in analysis of patient interviews. Our PPI Chair was involved in the preparation of this manuscript.

Risk of serious infection and infection mortality in patients with psoriasis: A nationwide cohort study using the Taiwan National Health Insurance claims database.

BACKGROUND: The risks of serious infections that lead to hospitalization and mortality in patients with psoriasis in Asia have not been comprehensively studied. OBJECTIVES: We examined the incidence of serious infection and infection mortality in patients with psoriasis. METHODS: This population-based retrospective cohort study used the Taiwan National Health Insurance claims database from 2000 to 2017. Adult patients with psoriasis were identified by a relevant International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code and matched to six comparators without psoriasis on age and sex. Psoriasis patients were categorized as having moderate-to-severe disease once exposed to systemic therapies, phototherapy or biologic therapies. The incidence of serious infection and infection mortality were identified by ICD codes from inpatient hospitalization and death registration. Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare the risk, and the results were adjusted for covariates and presented as adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). RESULTS: Overall, 185,434 psoriasis patients and 1,112,581 comparators were included. A higher rate of serious infection (aHR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.19-1.22) was found in patients with psoriasis compared to matched comparators without psoriasis, and the risk was enhanced when patients had moderate-to-severe psoriasis (aHR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.27-1.34). Specifically, there was an increased risk of serious infection due to respiratory infections (aHR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.09-1.13), skin/soft-tissue infections (aHR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.52-1.62), sepsis (aHR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.19-1.27), urinary tract infections (aHR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.08-1.14), hepatitis B (aHR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.06-1.30) and hepatitis C (aHR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.32-1.69). Furthermore, psoriasis patients were associated with a higher risk of infection-related mortality (aHR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.11-1.18) compared to matched comparators. CONCLUSION: Patients with psoriasis had a higher risk of serious infection and infection mortality, which was enhanced by moderate-to-severe psoriasis. Practitioners should be aware of the increased risk in patients with psoriasis, but it should not be a barrier to offering effective treatment.

Risk factors associated with the development of chronic suppurative otitis media in children: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM) is defined as persistent discharge through a tympanic membrane perforation for greater than 2 weeks. It is associated with a significant disease burden, including hearing loss, and reducing its incidence could significantly improve short- and long-term health. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with the development of CSOM in children. DESIGN AND SETTING: Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies set in community, primary and secondary care settings, identified from Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases from 2000 to 2022. PARTICIPANTS: Children 16 years old and below. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinical diagnosis of CSOM. RESULTS: In total, 739 papers were screened, with 12 deemed eligible for inclusion in the systematic review, of which, 10 were included in the meta-analysis. Risk factors examined included perinatal, patient, dietary, environmental and parental factors. Meta-analysis results indicate that atopy (RR = 1.18, 95% CI [1.01-1.37], p = .04, 2 studies); and birth weight <2500 g (RR = 1.79 [1.27-2.50], p < .01, 2 studies) are associated with an increased risk of CSOM development. Factors not associated were male sex (RR = 0.96 [0.82-1.13], p = .62, 8 studies); exposure to passive smoking (RR = 1.27 [0.81-2.01], p = .30, 3 studies); and parental history of otitis media (RR = 1.14 [0.59-2.20], p = .69, 2 studies). CONCLUSION: Optimal management of risk factors associated with CSOM development will help reduce the burden of disease and prevent disease progression or recurrence. The current quality of evidence in the literature is variable and heterogeneous. Future studies should aim to use standardised classification systems to define risk factors to allow meta-analysis.

Understanding the informal aspects of medication processes to maintain patient safety in hospitals: a sociotechnical ethnographic study in paediatric units.

Adverse drug events (ADEs) are common in hospitals, affecting one in six child in-patients. Medication processes are complex systems. This study aimed to explore the work-as-done of medication safety in three English paediatric units using direct observation and semi-structured interviews. We found that a combination of the physical environment, traditional work systems and team norms were among the systemic barriers to medicines safety. The layout of wards discouraged teamworking and reinforced professional boundaries. Workspaces were inadequate, and interruptions were uncontrollable. A less experienced workforce undertook prescribing and verification while more experienced nurses undertook administration. Guidelines were inadequate, with actors muddling through together. Formal controls against ADEs included checking (of prescriptions and administration) and barcode administration systems, but these did not integrate into workflows. Families played an important part in the safe administration of medication and provision of information about their children but were isolated from other parts of the system.

Formal medicines safety processes in paediatric units are disjointed and disconnected. This has led actors in the system (e.g. nursing and medical staff) to develop informal adaptations to increase resilience. There is a need to incorporate these adaptations into a systems-focussed consideration of safety processes, in order to properly inform the development of medication safety interventions.

Incidence and prevalence of generalized pustular psoriasis in multiethnic Johor Bahru, Malaysia: a population-based cohort study using routinely captured electronic health records in the Teleprimary Care (TPC®) clinical information system from 2010 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: There is limited understanding of the epidemiology of generalized pustular psoriasis (GPP) internationally, with no population-based estimates of GPP in South East Asia. OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence and prevalence of GPP in the Malaysian population and characterize its flares and trigger factors. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study using the Teleprimary Care database between January 2010 and December 2020. We identified 230 dermatologist-confirmed GPP cases using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, diagnostic codes. Annual prevalence and incidence rates were stratified by age, sex and ethnicity. We compared data regarding flares and trigger factors for patients with GPP who had associated psoriasis vulgaris (PV) with those who did not have associated PV. RESULTS: The prevalence of GPP was 198 per million (267 women, 127 men) and incidence was 27.2 per million person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 22.8-31.6]; 35.3 (28.4-42.2) per million person-years for women and 18.3 (13.1-23.5) per million person-years for men. Rates were higher in Chinese individuals [prevalence 271 per million; incidence 41.6 per million person-years (28.9-54.3)] than in the Malay population [prevalence 186; incidence 24.6 (19.4-29.7)] or the Indian ethnic group [prevalence 179; incidence 25.0 (13.8-36.3)]. Annual prevalence was consistently higher in women than in men and highest among the Chinese population, followed by the Indian and Malay populations. Overall, 67% of patients with GPP had associated PV. The prevalence and incidence of GPP without PV were lower than GPP with PV at 66 vs. 132 per million and 19.3 (95% CI 15.6-23.0) vs. 8.0 (95% CI 5.6-10.3) per million person-years, respectively. The mean age at GPP onset was 42.7 years (SD 18.4). A bimodal trend in the age of GPP onset was observed, with first and second peaks at age 20-29 years and age 50-59 years, respectively. Disease onset was significantly earlier in patients with GPP without PV than in those with PV [mean age 37.5 years (SD 20.7) vs. 44.9 years (SD 17.0), P = 0.026]. Flares occurred more frequently in patients without PV than in those with PV [mean number of flares per patient per year was 1.35 (SD 0.77) vs. 1.25 (SD 0.58), P = 0.039]. Common triggers of flares in patients with GPP who did not have PV were infections, pregnancy, menstruation and stress, whereas withdrawal of therapy, particularly systemic corticosteroids, was a more frequent trigger in patients with GPP who also had PV. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings contribute to the global mapping of GPP, which will help inform the management of this rare condition.

Predicting risk of endometrial cancer in asymptomatic women (PRECISION): Model development and external validation.

OBJECTIVES: Develop an endometrial cancer risk prediction model and externally validate it for UK primary care use. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: The UK Biobank was used for model development and a linked primary (Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD) and secondary care (HES), mortality (ONS) and cancer register (NRCAS) dataset was used for external validation. POPULATION: Women aged 45-60 years with no history of endometrial cancer or hysterectomy. METHODS: Model development was performed using a flexible parametric survival model and stepwise backward selection aiming to minimise the Akaike information criterion. Model performance on external validation was assessed through flexible calibration plots, calculation of the expected to observed ratio and C-statistic and decision curve analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Endometrial cancer diagnosis within 1-10 years of the index date. RESULTS: Model development included 222 031 women (902 incident endometrial cancer cases) and external validation 3 094 371 women (8585 endometrial cancer cases). The final model (with equation provided) incorporated age, body mass index, waist circumference, age at menarche, menopause and last birth, hormone replacement, tamoxifen and oral contraceptive pill use, type 2 diabetes, smoking and family history of bowel cancer. It was well calibrated on external validation (calibration slope 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.17, E/O 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05), with moderate/good discrimination (C-statistic 0.70, 95% CI 0.69-0.70) and had improved net benefit compared with previously developed models. CONCLUSIONS: The Predicting risk of endometrial cancer in asymptomatic women model (PRECISION), using easily measurable anthropometric, reproductive, personal and family history, accurately quantifies a woman's 10-year risk of endometrial cancer. Its use could determine eligibility for primary endometrial cancer prevention trials and for targeted resource allocation in UK general practices.

HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility of hypothesis evaluating real-world evidence studies on treatment effects: A good practices report of a joint ISPE/ISPOR task force.

PROBLEM: Ambiguity in communication of key study parameters limits the utility of real-world evidence (RWE) studies in healthcare decision-making. Clear communication about data provenance, design, analysis, and implementation is needed. This would facilitate reproducibility, replication in independent data, and assessment of potential sources of bias. WHAT WE DID: The International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) and ISPOR-The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) convened a joint task force, including representation from key international stakeholders, to create a harmonized protocol template for RWE studies that evaluate a treatment effect and are intended to inform decision-making. The template builds on existing efforts to improve transparency and incorporates recent insights regarding the level of detail needed to enable RWE study reproducibility. The overarching principle was to reach for sufficient clarity regarding data, design, analysis, and implementation to achieve 3 main goals. One, to help investigators thoroughly consider, then document their choices and rationale for key study parameters that define the causal question (e.g., target estimand), two, to facilitate decision-making by enabling reviewers to readily assess potential for biases related to these choices, and three, to facilitate reproducibility. STRATEGIES TO DISSEMINATE AND FACILITATE USE: Recognizing that the impact of this harmonized template relies on uptake, we have outlined a plan to introduce and pilot the template with key international stakeholders over the next 2 years. CONCLUSION: The HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility (HARPER) helps to create a shared understanding of intended scientific decisions through a common text, tabular and visual structure. The template provides a set of core recommendations for clear and reproducible RWE study protocols and is intended to be used as a backbone throughout the research process from developing a valid study protocol, to registration, through implementation and reporting on those implementation decisions.

Frequency and impact of medication reviews for people aged 65 years or above in UK primary care: an observational study using electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Medication reviews in primary care provide an opportunity to review and discuss the safety and appropriateness of a person's medicines. However, there is limited evidence about access to and the impact of routine medication reviews for older adults in the general population, particularly in the UK. We aimed to quantify the proportion of people aged 65 years and over with a medication review recorded in 2019 and describe changes in the numbers and types of medicines prescribed following a review. METHODS: We used anonymised primary care electronic health records from the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD GOLD) to define a population of people aged 65 years or over in 2019. We counted people with a medication review record in 2019 and used Cox regression to estimate associations between demographic characteristics, diagnoses, and prescribed medicines and having a medication review. We used linear regression to compare the number of medicines prescribed as repeat prescriptions in the three months before and after a medication review. Specifically, we compared the 'prescription count' - the maximum number of different medicines with overlapping prescriptions people had in each period. RESULTS: Of 591,726 people prescribed one or more medicines at baseline, 305,526 (51.6%) had a recorded medication review in 2019. Living in a care home (hazard ratio 1.51, 95% confidence interval 1.40-1.62), medication review in the previous year (1.83, 1.69-1.98), and baseline prescription count (e.g. 5-9 vs 1 medicine 1.41, 1.37-1.46) were strongly associated with having a medication review in 2019. Overall, the prescription count tended to increase after a review (mean change 0.13 medicines, 95% CI 0.12-0.14). CONCLUSIONS: Although medication reviews were commonly recorded for people aged 65 years or over, there was little change overall in the numbers and types of medicines prescribed following a review. This study did not examine whether the prescriptions were appropriate or other metrics, such as dose or medicine changes within the same class. However, by examining the impact of medication reviews before the introduction of structured medication review requirements in England in 2020, it provides a useful benchmark which these new reviews can be compared with.

The association of herpes zoster and influenza vaccinations with the risk of developing dementia: a population-based cohort study within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Dementia affects ability to remember, think, or make decisions that interfere with doing everyday activities. There is no cure, therefore any prevention or delay of the onset is of importance. This study aims to investigate the association between zoster and influenza vaccinations and the risk of developing dementia. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using electronic health records from 1469 general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum database with linked hospital episode statistics (HES) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality records. We built two 'matched cohorts': zoster vaccine (854,745 exposed individuals) matched with 8.8 million comparators without a history of zoster vaccination, and influenza vaccine (742,487 exposed individuals) matched with 7.12 million comparators without a history of vaccination as another comparator group. The cohorts were then followed to assess the association of exposure (vaccine) with outcome (dementia diagnosis). RESULTS: Zoster vaccination was associated with a lower risk of dementia diagnosis (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.78 with 95% CI: 0.77-0.79), Alzheimer's diagnosis (adjusted HR 0.91 with 95% CI: 0.89-0.92 and other types of dementia (adjusted HR 0.71 with 95% CI: 0.69-0.72). Influenza vaccination also was associated with a slightly reduced hazard of dementia risk (adjusted HR 0.96 with 95% CI: 0.94-0.97). CONCLUSION: Both zoster vaccine for prevention of shingles / herpes zoster and influenza vaccine to prevent influenza were associated with diminished risk of dementia, with the zoster association appearing more pronounced.

Prevalence, comorbidities and mortality of generalized pustular psoriasis: A literature review.

Generalized pustular psoriasis (GPP) is a rare auto-inflammatory skin disease characterised by acute episodes of sterile pustule formation. Diagnosis and treatment of the disease have historically been complicated by a lack of awareness, and no consistent global definition or clinical coding standards. Now acknowledged as a distinct clinical entity with a recognised genetic component, GPP can take a serious and life-threatening course due to systemic inflammatory complications and its association with various comorbidities. As with other rare diseases, there are significant challenges to understanding the epidemiology of GPP, notably a small patient population, non-standardised study methodologies and ethnic differences in its presentation. A clearer understanding of GPP is therefore required for clinicians to better manage patients with this rare condition. In this review article, we present an overview of the available data on GPP prevalence estimates in key demographics and report the frequency of genetic mutations associated with the disease. We detail the incidence of known comorbidities and summarise the data on mortality and assigned causes of death. Lastly, we discuss the various factors that impact the collection, interpretation and comparison of these data.

The use of locum doctors in the NHS - results of a national survey of NHS Trusts in England.

BACKGROUND: Locum working in healthcare organisations has benefits for individual doctors and organisations but there are concerns about the impact of locum working on continuity of care, patient safety, team function and cost. We conducted a national survey of NHS Trusts in England to explore locum work, and better understand why and where locum doctors were needed; how locum doctors were engaged, supported, perceived and managed; and any changes being made in the way locums are used. METHODS: An online survey was sent to 191 NHS Trusts and 98 were returned (51%) including 66 (67%) acute hospitals, 26 (27%) mental health and six (6%) community health providers. Data was analysed using frequency tables, t-tests and correlations. Free-text responses were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Most NHS Trusts use locums frequently and for varying lengths of time. Trusts prefer to use locums from internal locum banks but frequently rely on locum agencies. The benefits of using locums included maintaining workforce capacity and flexibility. Importantly, care provided by locums was generally viewed as the same or somewhat worse when compared to care provided by permanent doctors. The main disadvantages of using locum agencies included cost, lack of familiarity and impact on organisational development. Some respondents felt that locums could be unreliable and less likely to be invested in quality improvement. NHS Trusts were broadly unfamiliar with the national guidance from NHS England for supporting locums and there was a focus on processes like compliance checks and induction, with less focus on providing feedback and support for appraisal. CONCLUSIONS: Locum doctors provide a necessary service within NHS Trusts to maintain workforce capacity and provide patient care. There are potential issues related to the way that locums are perceived, utilised, and supported which might impact the quality of the care that they provide. Future research should consider the arrangements for locum working and the performance of locums and permanent doctors, investigating the organisation of locums in order to achieve safe and high-quality care for patients.

Scaling-up a pharmacist-led information technology intervention (PINCER) to reduce hazardous prescribing in general practices: Multiple interrupted time series study.

BACKGROUND: We previously reported on a randomised trial demonstrating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a pharmacist-led information technology intervention (PINCER). We sought to investigate whether PINCER was effective in reducing hazardous prescribing when rolled out at scale in UK general practices. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a multiple interrupted time series design whereby successive groups of general practices received the PINCER intervention between September 2015 and April 2017. We used 11 prescribing safety indicators to identify potentially hazardous prescribing and collected data over a maximum of 16 quarterly time periods. The primary outcome was a composite of all the indicators; a composite for indicators associated with gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding was also reported, along with 11 individual indicators of hazardous prescribing. Data were analysed using logistic mixed models for the quarterly event numbers with the appropriate denominator, and calendar time included as a covariate. PINCER was implemented in 370 (94.1%) of 393 general practices covering a population of almost 3 million patients in the East Midlands region of England; data were successfully extracted from 343 (92.7%) of these practices. For the primary composite outcome, the PINCER intervention was associated with a decrease in the rate of hazardous prescribing of 16.7% (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80 to 0.86) at 6 months and 15.3% (aOR 0.85, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.90) at 12 months postintervention. The unadjusted rate of hazardous prescribing reduced from 26.4% (22,503 patients in the numerator/853,631 patients in the denominator) to 20.1% (11,901 patients in the numerator/591,364 patients in the denominator) at 6 months and 19.1% (3,868 patients in the numerator/201,992 patients in the denominator). The greatest reduction in hazardous prescribing associated with the intervention was observed for the indicators associated with GI bleeding; for the GI composite indicator, there was a decrease of 23.9% at both 6 months (aOR 0.76, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.80) and 12 months (aOR 0.76, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.82) postintervention. The unadjusted rate of hazardous prescribing reduced from 31.4 (16,185 patients in the numerator/515,879 patients in the denominator) to 21.2% (7,607 patients in the numerator/358,349 patients in the denominator) at 6 months and 19.5% (2,369 patients in the numerator/121,534 patients in the denominator). We adjusted for calendar time and practice, but since this was an observational study, the findings may have been influenced by unknown confounding factors or behavioural changes unrelated to the PINCER intervention. Data were also not collected for all practices at 6 months and 12 months postintervention. CONCLUSIONS: The PINCER intervention, when rolled out at scale in routine clinical practice, was associated with a reduction in hazardous prescribing by 17% and 15% at 6 and 12 months postintervention. The greatest reductions in hazardous prescribing were for indicators associated with risk of GI bleeding. These findings support the wider national rollout of PINCER in England.

Incidence of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and oral anticoagulant prescribing in England, 2009 to 2019: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important risk factor for ischaemic stroke, and AF incidence is expected to increase. Guidelines recommend using oral anticoagulants (OACs) to prevent the development of stroke. However, studies have reported the frequent underuse of OACs in AF patients. The objective of this study is to describe nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) incidence in England and assess the clinical and socioeconomic factors associated with the underprescribing of OACs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) database to identify patients with NVAF aged ≥18 years and registered in English general practices between 2009 and 2019. Annual incidence rate of NVAF by age, deprivation quintile, and region was estimated. OAC prescribing status was explored for patients at risk for stroke and classified into the following: OAC, aspirin only, or no treatment. We used a multivariable multinomial logistic regression model to estimate relative risk ratios (RRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the factors associated with OAC or aspirin-only prescribing compared to no treatment in patients with NVAF who are recommended to take OAC. The multivariable regression was adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, socioeconomic status, baseline treatment, frailty, bleeding risk factors, and takes into account clustering by general practice. Between 2009 and 2019, 12,517,191 patients met the criteria for being at risk of developing NVAF. After a median follow-up of 4.6 years, 192,265 patients had an incident NVAF contributing a total of 647,876 person-years (PYR) of follow-up. The overall age-adjusted incidence of NVAF per 10,000 PYR increased from 20.8 (95% CI: 20.4; 21.1) in 2009 to 25.5 (25.1; 25.9) in 2019. Higher incidence rates were observed for older ages and males. Among NVAF patients eligible for anticoagulation, OAC prescribing rose from 59.8% (95% CI: 59.0; 60.6) in 2009 to 83.2% (95% CI: 83.0; 83.4) in 2019. Several conditions were associated with lower risk of OAC prescribing: dementia [RRR 0.52 (0.47; 0.59)], liver disease 0.58 (0.50; 0.67), malignancy 0.74 (0.72; 0.77), and history of falls 0.82 (0.78; 0.85). Compared to white ethnicity, patients from black and other ethnic minorities were less likely to receive OAC; 0.78 (0.65; 0.94) and 0.76 (0.64; 0.91), respectively. Patients living in the most deprived areas were less likely to receive OAC 0.85 (0.79; 0.91) than patients living in the least deprived areas. Practices located in the East of England were associated with higher risk of prescribing aspirin only over no treatment than practices in London (RRR 1.22; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.45). The main limitation of this study is that these findings depends on accurate recording of conditions by health professionals and the inevitable residual confounding due to lack of data on certain factors that could be associated with under-prescribing of OACs. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of NVAF increased between 2009 and 2015, before plateauing. Underprescribing of OACs in NVAF is associated with a range of comorbidities, ethnicity, and socioeconomic factors, demonstrating the need for initiatives to reduce inequalities in the care for AF patients.