Reconstructing disease outbreaks from genetic data: a graph approach.

Epidemiology and public health planning will increasingly rely on the analysis of genetic sequence data. In particular, genetic data coupled with dates and locations of sampled isolates can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal dynamics of pathogens during outbreaks. Thus far, phylogenetic methods have been used to tackle this issue. Although these approaches have proved useful for informing on the spread of pathogens, they do not aim at directly reconstructing the underlying transmission tree. Instead, phylogenetic models infer most recent common ancestors between pairs of isolates, which can be inadequate for densely sampled recent outbreaks, where the sample includes ancestral and descendent isolates. In this paper, we introduce a novel method based on a graph approach to reconstruct transmission trees directly from genetic data. Using simulated data, we show that our approach can efficiently reconstruct genealogies of isolates in situations where classical phylogenetic approaches fail to do so. We then illustrate our method by analyzing data from the early stages of the swine-origin A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. Using 433 isolates sequenced at both the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes, we reconstruct the likely history of the worldwide spread of this new influenza strain. The presented methodology opens new perspectives for the analysis of genetic data in the context of disease outbreaks.

Genome-wide survey of protein kinases required for cell cycle progression.

Cycles of protein phosphorylation are fundamental in regulating the progression of the eukaryotic cell through its division cycle. Here we test the complement of Drosophila protein kinases (kinome) for cell cycle functions after gene silencing by RNA-mediated interference. We observed cell cycle dysfunction upon downregulation of 80 out of 228 protein kinases, including most kinases that are known to regulate the division cycle. We find new enzymes with cell cycle functions; some of these have family members already known to phosphorylate microtubules, actin or their associated proteins. Additionally, depletion of several signalling kinases leads to specific mitotic aberrations, suggesting novel roles for familiar enzymes. The survey reveals the inter-digitation of systems that monitor cellular physiology, cell size, cellular stress and signalling processes with the basic cell cycle regulatory machinery.

How accurate is the current picture of human genetic variation?

Our understanding of the distribution of worldwide human genomic diversity has greatly increased over recent years thanks to the availability of large data sets derived from short tandem repeats (STRs), insertion deletion polymorphisms (indels) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A concern, however, is that the current picture of worldwide human genomic diversity may be inaccurate because of biases in the selection process of genetic markers (so-called 'ascertainment bias'). To evaluate this problem, we first compared the distribution of genomic diversity between these three types of genetic markers in the populations from the HGDP-CEPH panel for evidence of bias or incongruities. In a second step, using a very relaxed set of criteria to prevent the intrusion of bias, we developed a new set of unbiased STR markers and compared the results against those from available panels. Contrarily to recent claims, our results show that the STR markers suffer from no discernible bias, and can thus be used as a baseline reference for human genetic diversity and population differentiation. The bias on SNPs is moderate compared to that on the set of indels analysed, which we recommend should be avoided for work describing the distribution of human genetic diversity or making inference on human settlement history.

SAK/PLK4 is required for centriole duplication and flagella development.

BACKGROUND: SAK/PLK4 is a distinct member of the polo-like kinase family. SAK-/- mice die during embryogenesis, whereas SAK+/- mice develop liver and lung tumors and SAK+/- MEFs show mitotic abnormalities. However, the mechanism underlying these phenotypes is still not known. RESULTS: Here, we show that downregulation of SAK in Drosophila cells, by mutation or RNAi, leads to loss of centrioles, the core structures of centrosomes. Such cells are able to undergo repeated rounds of cell division, but display broad disorganized mitotic spindle poles. We also show that SAK mutants lose their centrioles during the mitotic divisions preceding male meiosis but still produce cysts of 16 primary spermatocytes as in the wild-type. Mathematical modeling of the stereotyped cell divisions of spermatogenesis can account for such loss by defective centriole duplication. The majority of spermatids in SAK mutants lack centrioles and so are unable to make sperm axonemes. Finally, we show that depletion of SAK in human cells also prevents centriole duplication and gives rise to mitotic abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: SAK/PLK4 is necessary for centriole duplication both in Drosophila and human cells. Drosophila cells tolerate the lack of centrioles and undertake mitosis but cannot form basal bodies and hence flagella. Human cells depleted of SAK show error-prone mitosis, likely to underlie its tumor-suppressor role.

Sex-biased dispersal in a migratory bat: a characterization using sex-specific demographic parameters.

We studied the noctule bat (Nyctalus noctula), in which the mitochondrial F(ST) is about 10 times that revealed by nuclear markers, to address two questions. We first verified whether random dispersal of one sex is compatible with highly contrasted mitochondrial and nuclear population structures. Using computer simulations, we then assessed the power of multilocus population differentiation tests when the expected population structure departs only slightly from panmixia. Using an island model with sex-specific demographic parameters, we found that random male dispersal is consistent with the population structure observed in the noctule. However, other parameter combinations are also compatible with the data. We computed the minimum sex bias in dispersal (at least 69% of the dispersing individuals are males), a result that would not be available if we had used more classical population genetic models. The power of multilocus population differentiation tests was unexpectedly high, the tests being significant in almost 100% of the replicates, although the observed population structure infered from nuclear markers was extremely low (F(ST) = 0.6%).

Microsatellites can be misleading: an empirical and simulation study.

It has been long recognized that highly polymorphic genetic markers can lead to underestimation of divergence between populations when migration is low. Microsatellite loci, which are characterized by extremely high mutation rates, are particularly likely to be affected. Here, we report genetic differentiation estimates in a contact zone between two chromosome races of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), based on 10 autosomal microsatellites, a newly developed Y-chromosome microsatellite, and mitochondrial DNA. These results are compared to previous data on proteins and karyotypes. Estimates of genetic differentiation based on F- and R-statistics are much lower for autosomal microsatellites than for all other genetic markers. We show by simulations that this discrepancy stems mainly from the high mutation rate of microsatellite markers for F-statistics and from deviations from a single-step mutation model for R-statistics. The sex-linked genetic markers show that all gene exchange between races is mediated by females. The absence of male-mediated gene flow most likely results from male hybrid sterility.

Testing demographic models of effective population size.

Due to practical difficulties in obtaining direct genetic estimates of effective sizes, conservation biologists have to rely on so-called 'demographic models' which combine life-history and mating-system parameters with F-statistics in order to produce indirect estimates of effective sizes. However, for the same practical reasons that prevent direct genetic estimates, the accuracy of demographic models is difficult to evaluate. Here we use individual-based, genetically explicit computer simulations in order to investigate the accuracy of two such demographic models aimed at investigating the hierarchical structure of populations. We show that, by and large, these models provide good estimates under a wide range of mating systems and dispersal patterns. However, one of the models should be avoided whenever the focal species' breeding system approaches monogamy with no sex bias in dispersal or when a substructure within social groups is suspected because effective sizes may then be strongly overestimated. The timing during the life cycle at which F-statistics are evaluated is also of crucial importance and attention should be paid to it when designing field sampling since different demographic models assume different timings. Our study shows that individual-based, genetically explicit models provide a promising way of evaluating the accuracy of demographic models of effective size and delineate their field of applicability.

Female-biased dispersal in the monogamous mammal Crocidura russula: evidence from field data and microsatellite patterns.

We investigated dispersal patterns in the monogamous Crocidura russula, based both on direct field observations (mark-recapture data) and on genetic analyses (microsatellite loci). Natal dispersal was found to be low. Most juveniles settled within their natal territory or one immediately adjacent. Migration rate was estimated to two individuals per year and per population. The correlation between genetic and geographical distances over a 16 km transect implies that migration occurs over short ranges. Natal dispersal was restricted to first-litter juveniles weaned in early May; this result suggests a direct dependence of dispersal on reproductive opportunities. Natal dispersal was highly female biased, a pattern unusual among mammals. Its association with monogamy provides support for the resource-competition model of dispersal. Our results demonstrate that a state-biased dispersal can be directly inferred from microsatellite genotype distributions, which opens new perspectives for empirical studies in this area.

Do riverine barriers, history or introgression shape the genetic structuring of a common shrew (Sorex araneus) population?

The common shrew (Sorex araneus) is subdivided into numerous chromosome races. The Valais and Cordon chromosome races meet and hybridize at a mountain river in Les Houches (French Alps). Significant genetic structuring was recently reported among populations found on the Valais side of this hybrid zone. In this paper, a phylogenetic analysis and partial Mantel tests are used to investigate the patterns and causes of this structuring. A total of 185 shrews were trapped at 12 localities. All individuals were typed for nine microsatellite loci. Although several mountain rivers are found in the study area, riverine barriers do not have a significant influence on gene flow. Partial Mantel tests show that our result is caused by the influence of the hybrid zone with the Cordon race. The geographical patterns of this structuring are discussed in the context of the contact zone, which appears to extend up to a group of two rivers. The glacier they originate from is known to have cut the Arve valley as recently as 1818. The recent history of this glacier, its moraine and possibly rivers, may therefore be linked to the history of this hybrid zone.

Regular treatments of praziquantel do not impact on the genetic make-up of Schistosoma mansoni in Northern Senegal.

The Senegal River Basin (SRB) experienced a major epidemic of intestinal schistosomiasis in the early nineties, after the construction of a dam for irrigation purposes. Exceptionally low cure rates following praziquantel (PZQ) treatment at the onset of the epidemic raised concerns about PZQ resistant strains of Schistosoma mansoni, although they could also be attributed to the intense transmission at that time. A field study in the same region more than 15 years later found cure rates for S. mansoni still to be low, whereas Schistosomahaematobium responded well to treatment. We collected S. mansoni miracidia from children at base-line prior to treatment, six months after two PZQ treatments and two years after the start of the study when they had received a total of five PZQ treatments. In total, 434 miracidia from 12 children were successfully genotyped with at least six out of nine DNA microsatellite loci. We found no significant differences in the genetic diversity of, and genetic differentiation between parasite populations before and after repeated treatment, suggesting that PZQ treatment does not have an impact on the neutral evolution of the parasite. This is in stark contrast with a similar study in Tanzania where a significant decrease in genetic diversity was observed in S. mansoni miracidia after a single round of PZQ treatment. We argue that PZQ resistance might play a role in our study area, although rapid re-infection cannot be excluded. It is important to monitor this situation carefully and conduct larger field studies with short-term follow-up after treatment. Since PZQ is the only general schistosomicide available, the possibility of PZQ resistance is of great concern both for disease control and for curative use in clinical practice.

Diverse approaches to analysing the history of human and pathogen evolution: how to tell the story of the past 70 000 years.

The meeting 'Human evolution, migration and history revealed by genetics, immunity and infection', along with the follow-on satellite meeting at the Kavli Centre over the subsequent two days, brought together diverse talents. The aim was to see if new insights could be gained by bringing together those who have interests in the past 50-100 000 years of human history, overlaying the perspectives of palaeogeneticists, anthropologists, human geneticists, pathogen geneticists, immunologists, disease modellers, linguists, immunogeneticists, historians and archaeologists. It rapidly became clear that while all may agree on the broad brush-strokes including 'out-of-Africa' and the general approximations of timelines, diverse approaches may often suggest somewhat different ways of telling the story.

Is urbanization scrambling the genetic structure of human populations? A case study.

Recent population expansion and increased migration linked to urbanization are assumed to be eroding the genetic structure of human populations. We investigated change in population structure over three generations by analysing both demographic and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) data from a random sample of 2351 men from 22 Iranian populations. Potential changes in genetic diversity (theta) and genetic distance (F(ST)) over the last three generations were analysed by assigning mtDNA sequences to populations based on the individual's place of birth or that of their mother or grandmother. Despite the fact that several areas included cities of over one million inhabitants, we detected no change in genetic diversity, and only a small decrease in population structure, except in the capital city (Tehran), which was characterized by massive immigration, increased theta and a large decrease in F(ST) over time. Our results suggest that recent erosion of human population structure might not be as important as previously thought, except in some large conurbations, and this clearly has important implications for future sampling strategies.

Genome-wide characterisation of hepatitis B mutations involved in clinical outcome.

Infection with the hepatitis B virus (HBV) leads to different disease outcomes, which can be broadly divided into three categories: acute mild infection, 'fulminant' and chronic hepatitis (long-term persistent form of the infection). The factors that influence the development of these different disease states are poorly understood and may include viral polymorphisms. To investigate this possibility, we analysed 116 published complete HBV genomes for which we knew disease outcome and had access to associated information on patients (age, sex and geographic origin). Our best statistical model correctly classified 72% of the cases and retained age and sex of the patient, as well as 29 candidate mutations. With the exception of one mutation in the X gene, all were located in the viral polymerase, suggesting this gene plays a critical role in clinical outcome. Our results highlight the importance of the genetics of HBV strains in the evolution of the disease and demonstrate that disease outcome can be predicted to a surprisingly large extent with a limited number of host and viral factors.

Life history correlates of inbreeding depression in mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx).

Inbreeding depression reflects the negative consequences of increased homozygosity at genes that affect fitness. We investigate inbreeding depression in a semi-free-ranging colony of mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx), using high-quality pedigree data, comprising five maternal generations and 20 years of morphological and demographic data. We examine the relationship between inbreeding coefficients and four fitness correlates: two growth parameters (mass and height for age) and longevity in both sexes, and age at first conception in females. Inbreeding was correlated with both growth parameters, but only in females, with inbred females being smaller than noninbred females. Inbreeding was also correlated significantly with age at first conception, with inbred females giving birth earlier in life than noninbred females. We suggest that sex-biased maternal investment may explain this sex-differential response to inbreeding, although the lack of a significant association between inbreeding and growth in males may also be due to the provisioned nature of the colony. The surprising relationship between age at first conception and inbreeding may be related to smaller adult size in inbred females, or to their being less able to escape from male sexual coercion.

Statistical properties of population differentiation estimators under stepwise mutation in a finite island model.

Microsatellite loci mutate at an extremely high rate and are generally thought to evolve through a stepwise mutation model. Several differentiation statistics taking into account the particular mutation scheme of the microsatellite have been proposed. The most commonly used is R(ST) which is independent of the mutation rate under a generalized stepwise mutation model. F(ST) and R(ST) are commonly reported in the literature, but often differ widely. Here we compare their statistical performances using individual-based simulations of a finite island model. The simulations were run under different levels of gene flow, mutation rates, population number and sizes. In addition to the per locus statistical properties, we compare two ways of combining R(ST) over loci. Our simulations show that even under a strict stepwise mutation model, no statistic is best overall. All estimators suffer to different extents from large bias and variance. While R(ST) better reflects population differentiation in populations characterized by very low gene-exchange, F(ST) gives better estimates in cases of high levels of gene flow. The number of loci sampled (12, 24, or 96) has only a minor effect on the relative performance of the estimators under study. For all estimators there is a striking effect of the number of samples, with the differentiation estimates showing very odd distributions for two samples.

Does heterozygosity estimate inbreeding in real populations?

Many recent studies report that individual heterozygosity at a handful of apparently neutral microsatellite markers is correlated with key components of fitness, with most studies invoking inbreeding depression as the likely underlying mechanism. The implicit assumption is that an individual's inbreeding coefficient can be estimated reliably using only 10 or so markers, but the validity of this assumption is unclear. Consequently, we have used individual-based simulations to examine the conditions under which heterozygosity and inbreeding are likely to be correlated. Our results indicate that the parameter space in which this occurs is surprisingly narrow, requiring that inbreeding events are both frequent and severe, for example, through selfing, strong population structure and/or high levels of polygyny. Even then, the correlations are strong only when large numbers of loci (~200) can be deployed to estimate heterozygosity. With the handful of markers used in most studies, correlations only become likely under the most extreme scenario we looked at, namely 20 demes of 20 individuals coupled with strong polygyny. This finding is supported by the observation that heterozygosity is only weakly correlated among markers within an individual, even in a dataset comprising 400 markers typed in diverse human populations, some of which favour consanguineous marriages. If heterozygosity and inbreeding coefficient are generally uncorrelated, then heterozygosity-fitness correlations probably have little to do with inbreeding depression. Instead, one would need to invoke chance linkage between the markers used and one or more gene(s) experiencing balancing selection. Unfortunately, both explanations sit somewhat uncomfortably with current understanding. If inbreeding is the dominant mechanism, then our simulations indicate that consanguineous mating would have to be vastly more common than is predicted for most realistic populations. Conversely, if heterosis provides the answer, there need to be many more polymorphisms with major fitness effects and higher levels of linkage disequilibrium than are generally assumed.

Extreme genetic differentiation among the remnant populations of marble trout (Salmo marmoratus) in Slovenia.

Populations of the marble trout (Salmo marmoratus) have declined critically due to introgression by brown trout (Salmo trutta) strains. In order to define strategies for long-term conservation, we examined the genetic structure of the 8 known pure populations using 15 microsatellite loci. The analyses reveal extraordinarily strong genetic differentiation among populations separated by < 15 km, and extremely low levels of intrapopulation genetic variability. As natural recolonization seems highly unlikely, appropriate management and conservation strategies should comprise the reintroduction of pure populations from mixed stocks (translocation) to avoid further loss of genetic diversity.