Estimating transmission dynamics and serial interval of the first wave of COVID-19 infections under different control measures: a statistical analysis in Tunisia from February 29 to May 5, 2020.

BACKGROUND: Describing transmission dynamics of the outbreak and impact of intervention measures are critical to planning responses to future outbreaks and providing timely information to guide policy makers decision. We estimate serial interval (SI) and temporal reproduction number (Rt) of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia. METHODS: We collected data of investigations and contact tracing between March 1, 2020 and May 5, 2020 as well as illness onset data during the period February 29-May 5, 2020 from National Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases of Tunisia. Maximum likelihood (ML) approach is used to estimate dynamics of Rt. RESULTS: Four hundred ninety-one of infector-infectee pairs were involved, with 14.46% reported pre-symptomatic transmission. SI follows Gamma distribution with mean 5.30 days [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 4.66-5.95] and standard deviation 0.26 [95% CI 0.23-0.30]. Also, we estimated large changes in Rt in response to the combined lockdown interventions. The Rt moves from 3.18 [95% Credible Interval (CrI) 2.73-3.69] to 1.77 [95% CrI 1.49-2.08] with curfew prevention measure, and under the epidemic threshold (0.89 [95% CrI 0.84-0.94]) by national lockdown measure. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our findings highlight contribution of interventions to interrupt transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia.

Assessment of sample pooling for SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing for screening of asymptomatic persons in Tunisia.

The aim of this study is to test a pooling approach for the RT-PCR test to detect low viral loads of SARS-CoV-2. We found that a single positive specimen can still be detected in pools of up to 10. Each laboratory should conduct its own evaluation and validation of pooling protocols according to its specific context.

Prevalence, Genotype Distribution and Risk Factors for Cervical Human Papillomavirus Infection in the Grand Tunis Region, Tunisia.

Implementation of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination should be considered a key cervical cancer prevention strategy in Tunisia, where Pap smear screening is not efficient. This study aims to estimate the prevalence and to identify risk factors associated with HPV infection among women from Grand Tunis, Tunisia. We conducted a cross-sectional study, between December 2012 and May 2013. Eligible women for this study were those aged 18-65 years, sexually active, who sought medical attention at their primary health care centre or clinic in Grand Tunis, Tunisia and who gave written consent. A liquid-based Pap smear sample was obtained from all women using a cervical brush. Only women with betaglobin positive test were further analysed for HPV detection and typing. A nested-PCR of the L1 region was performed followed by reverse line blot hybridization to facilitate the specific detection of 31 HPV genotypes. Multiple logistic regression modeling was used for the analysis of associations between variables with some considered possible confounders after checking for interactions. A total of 391 women were enrolled in this study and 325 out of the 391 cervical samples were positive for the betaglobin test. Overall HPV prevalence was 13.2% [9.8%-17.5%], with the following most prevalent HPV genotypes: HPV6 (40%), HPV40 (14%), HPV16 (12%), HPV52 (9%), HPV31 and HPV59 (7%), followed by HPV68 (4%). Mean age of HPV positive women was 40.7±0.92 years. Independently associated risk factors of HPV infection were smoking (OR:2.8 [0.8-9.6]), low income (OR:9.6 [1.4-63.4), bad housing type (OR:2.5 [1-6.8]), partner with multiple sexual relationship (OR:4.5 [0.9-22.9]) and single women (widowed, divorced, separated, never married) (OR:6.9 [1.1-42.2]). This study provides the first national-based estimate of HPV prevalence in Tunisia. Our findings contribute to the evidence on the current burden of HPV infection, the critical role of sexual behaviour and socioeconomic status and call for increased support for the screening program in Tunisia to prevent cervical cancer. These results allow us to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vaccine program implementation in Tunisia in future.