Early administration of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir leads to faster negative SARS-CoV-2 nasal swabs than monoclonal antibodies in COVID 19 patients at high-risk for severe disease.

PURPOSE: Besides the well-established efficacy in preventing severe COVID-19, the impact of early treatments, namely antivirals and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), on the time length to negativization of SARS-CoV-2 nasal swabs is still unclear. The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of different early treatments in reducing the SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding, identifying a single drug that might potentially lead to a more rapid negativization of SARS-CoV-2 nasal swab. METHODS: This was a single-centre, retrospective, observational study conducted at Ospedale Luigi Sacco in Milan. Data of high-risk COVID-19 patients who received early treatments between 23 December 2021 and March 2023 were extracted. The comparison across treatments was conducted using the Kruskall-Wallis test for continuous variables. Dunn's test with Bonferroni adjustment was performed for post-hoc comparisons of days to negativization. Secondly, a negative binomial regression adjusted for age, sex, number of comorbidities, immunosuppression, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination status was implemented. RESULTS: Data from 428 patients receiving early treatments were collected. The majority were treated with Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir and were affected by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection with BA.2 sublineage. The median length time to SARS-CoV-2 nasal swab negativization was 9 days [IQR 7-13 days]. We found that Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir determined a significant decrease of the length time to SARS-CoV-2 nasal swab negativization compared to mAbs (p = 0.003), but not compared to Remdesivir (p = 0.147) and Molnupiravir (p = 0.156). CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the importance of promptly treating high-risk COVID-19 patients with Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir, as it also contributes to achieving a faster time to negative SARS-CoV-2 nasal swabs.

Genomic epidemiology of the main SARS-CoV-2 variants in Italy between summer 2020 and winter 2021.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 has shown a great genomic variability, resulting in the continuous emergence of new variants that has made their global monitoring and study a priority. This work aimed to study the genomic heterogeneity, the temporal origin, the rate of viral evolution and the population dynamics of the main circulating variants (20E.EU1, Alpha and Delta) in Italy, in August 2020-January 2022 period. For phylogenetic analyses, three datasets were set up, each for a different main lineage/variant circulating in Italy in that time including other Italian and International sequences of the same lineage/variant, available in GISAID sampled in the same times. The international dataset showed 26 (23% Italians, 23% singleton, 54% mixed), 40 (60% mixed, 37.5% Italians, 1 singleton) and 42 (85.7% mixed, 9.5% singleton, 4.8% Italians) clusters with at least one Italian sequence, in 20E.EU1  clade, Alpha and Delta variants, respectively. The estimation of tMRCAs in the Italian clusters (including >70% of genomes from Italy) showed that in all the lineage/variant, the earliest clusters were the largest in size and the most persistent in time and frequently mixed. Isolates from the major Italian Islands tended to segregate in clusters more frequently than those from other part of Italy. The study of infection dynamics showed a positive correlation between the trend in the effective number of infections estimated by BSP model and the Re curves estimated by birth-death skyline plot. The present work highlighted different evolutionary dynamics of studied lineages with high concordance between epidemiological parameters estimation and phylodynamic trends suggesting that the mechanism of replacement of the SARS-CoV-2 variants must be related to a complex of factors involving the transmissibility, as well as the implementation of control measures, and the level of cross-immunization within the population.

Genomic epidemiology and phylogenetics applied to the study of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

The study of characteristics, prevalence and patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections is significant to monitor and define the status of the pandemic, helping to design and evaluate control strategies. In this setting, the continuous emergence of new variants and their dynamic of replacement underline the importance of implementing genomic epidemiology and phylogenetic methods for the molecular monitoring and surveillance of this new virus. The current profile of the pandemic can change rapidly when new variants emerge and spread, impacting epidemiology and public health in terms of prevention and treatment and making it necessary to develop new molecules and formulate vaccines. In this paper, we reviewed and synthesized the main studies on molecular genomics and phylogeny of SARS-CoV-2 during the pandemic, and highlighted their contributions to our understanding of this new emergent pathogen.

Circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in Italy, October 2020-March 2021.

A growing number of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants is being identified worldwide, potentially impacting the effectiveness of current vaccines. We report the data obtained in several Italian regions involved in the SARS-CoV-2 variant monitoring from the beginning of the epidemic and spanning the period from October 2020 to March 2021.

Dynamics of the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among healthcare workers at a COVID-19 referral hospital in Milan, Italy.

OBJECTIVES: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at high risk of developing SARS-CoV-2 infection. The aim of this single-centre prospective study was to evaluate the trend of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in HCWs working at the primary referral centre for infectious diseases and bioemergencies (eg, COVID-19) in Northern Italy and investigate the factors associated with seroconversion. METHODS: Six hundred and seventy-nine HCW volunteers were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies three times between 4 March and 27 May 2020 and completed a questionnaire covering COVID-19 exposure, symptoms and personal protective equipment (PPE) training and confidence at each time. RESULTS: SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence rose from 3/679 to 26/608 (adjusted prevalence: 0.5%, 95% CI 0.1 to 1.7% and 5.4%, 95% CI 3.6 to 7.9, respectively) between the first two time points and then stabilised, in line with the curve of the COVID-19 epidemic in Milan. From the first time point, 61.6% of the HCWs had received training in the use of PPE and 17 (61.5%) of those who proved to be seropositive reported symptoms compatible with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Contacts with ill relatives or friends and self-reported symptoms were independently associated with an increased likelihood of seroconversion (p<0.0001 for both), whereas there was no significant association with professional exposure. CONCLUSION: The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among the HCWs at our COVID-19 referral hospital was low at the time of the peak of the epidemic. The seroconversions were mainly attributable to extrahospital contacts, probably because the hospital readily adopted effective infection control measures. The relatively high number of asymptomatic seropositive HCWs highlights the need to promptly identify and isolate potentially infectious HCWs.

Early phylogenetic estimate of the effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2.

To reconstruct the evolutionary dynamics of the 2019 novel-coronavirus recently causing an outbreak in Wuhan, China, 52 SARS-CoV-2 genomes available on 4 February 2020 at Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data were analyzed. The two models used to estimate the reproduction number (coalescent-based exponential growth and a birth-death skyline method) indicated an estimated mean evolutionary rate of 7.8 × 10-4 subs/site/year (range, 1.1 × 10-4 -15 × 10-4 ) and a mean tMRCA of the tree root of 73 days. The estimated R value was 2.6 (range, 2.1-5.1), and increased from 0.8 to 2.4 in December 2019. The estimated mean doubling time of the epidemic was between 3.6 and 4.1 days. This study proves the usefulness of phylogeny in supporting the surveillance of emerging new infections even as the epidemic is growing.

Genomic characterization and phylogenetic analysis of SARS-COV-2 in Italy.

This report describes the isolation, molecular characterization, and phylogenetic analysis of the first three complete genomes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) isolated from three patients involved in the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Lombardy, Italy. Early molecular epidemiological tracing suggests that SARS-CoV-2 was present in Italy weeks before the first reported cases of infection.

Contribution of transgender sex workers to the complexity of the HIV-1 epidemic in the metropolitan area of Milan.

OBJECTIVES: Transgender people are disproportionately affected by the HIV-1 epidemic. We evaluated the origin of HIV-1 variants carried by South American transgenders living in Milan by combining accurate phylogenetic methods and epidemiological data. METHODS: We collected 156 HIV-1 pol sequences obtained from transgender patients engaged in sex work (TSWs) followed between 1999 and 2015 at L. Sacco Hospital, Milan, Italy. Phylogenetic analyses were conducted by HIV-TRACE, MrBayes, MacClade and Beast programs. Reference sequences were retrieved from Los Alamos and local databases. Last negative testing or proxy data from clinical records of infected individuals were used to investigate the country of infection. RESULTS: Among South American TSWs, the most represented HIV-1 subtypes were B (70.5%), F1 (12.8%) and C (4.4%). Gene flow migrations of B subtype indicated significant fluxes from TSWs to Italians (21.3%) belonging to all risk groups (26.4% to heterosexuals (HEs), 18.9% to men who have sex with men (MSM), 15.1% to injecting drug users). The largest proportion of bidirectional fluxes were observed between Italians and TSWs (24.6%). For F1 subtype, bidirectional viral fluxes involved TSWs and Italians (7.1% and 14.3%), and a similar proportion of fluxes linked TSWs and Italian HEs or MSM (both 15.8%). Significant fluxes were detected from Italians to TSWs for subtype C involving both MSM (30%) and HEs (40%). Country of HIV-1 acquisition was identified for 72 subjects; overall, the largest proportion of patients with B subtype (73.5%) acquired HIV-1 infection in South America. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that South American transgenders largely contribute to the heterogeneity of HIV-1 variants in our country. The high number of clusters based on all subtypes indicated numerous transmission chains in which TSWs were constantly intermixed with HEs and MSM. Our results strongly advocate interventions to facilitate prevention, diagnosis and HIV-1 care continuum among transgender people.

Bayesian reconstruction of the evolutionary history and cross-species transition of variola virus and orthopoxviruses.

Variola virus (VARV), the causative agent of smallpox, is an exclusively human virus belonging to the genus Orthopoxvirus, which includes many other viral species covering a wide range of mammal hosts, such as vaccinia, cowpox, camelpox, taterapox, ectromelia, and monkeypox virus. The tempo and mode of evolution of Orthopoxviruses were reconstructed using a Bayesian phylodynamic framework by analysing 80 hemagglutinin sequences retrieved from public databases. Bayesian phylogeography was used to estimate their putative ancestral hosts. In order to estimate the substitution rate, the tree including all of the available Orthopoxviruses was calibrated using historical references dating the South American variola minor clade (alastrim) to between the XVI and XIX century. The mean substitution rate determined by the analysis was 6.5 × 10-6 substitutions/site/year. Based on this evolutionary estimate, the time of the most recent common ancestor of the genus Orthopoxvirus was placed at about 10 000 years before the present. Cowpox virus was the species closest to the root of the phylogenetic tree. The root of VARV circulating in the XX century was estimated to be about 700 years ago, corresponding to about 1300 AD. The divergence between West African and South American VARV went back about 500 years ago (falling approximately in the XVI century). A rodent species is the most probable ancestral host from which the ancestors of all the known Orthopoxviruses were transmitted to the other mammal host species, and each of these species represented a dead-end for each new poxvirus species, without any further inter-specific spread.

Fetal Myocarditis Associated With Maternal SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

We report the first case of significant fetal myocardial involvement associated with maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection, in which restoration of cardiac function at birth was noted. The demonstration of previous infection was supported by the quantification of humoral response in child and mother, in particular the presence of anti-N antibodies and through the detection of specific antibodies against the BA.4/5 variant.

Epidemiology and molecular analyses of respiratory syncytial virus in the 2021-2022 season in northern Italy.

Background: Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infection among infants and young children worldwide, with seasonal peaks in January and February. This study aimed to characterize the RSV samples from a pediatric cohort in the 2021-2022 season in Italy. Methods: In total, 104 samples were collected from pediatric patients attending the "Vittore Buzzi" Children's Hospital in Milan, Italy in the 2021-2022 season. RT-PCR and next-generation sequencing were used to discriminate subgroups and obtain whole genomes. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic methods were used to analyze Italian sequences in the European contest and date Italian clusters. Results: The median age was 78 days, and 76.9% of subjects required hospitalization, with a higher proportion of patients under 3 months of age. An equal proportion of subgroups A (GA2.3.5) and B (GB5.0.5a) was found, with significant differences in length of hospitalization, days of supplemental oxygen treatment, and intravenous hydration duration. Phylogeny highlighted 26 and 37 clusters containing quite the total of Italian sequences for RSV-A and -B, respectively. Clusters presented a tMRCA between December 2011-February 2017 and May 2014-December 2016 for A and B subgroups, respectively. Compared to European sequences, specific mutations were observed in Italian strains. Conclusion: These data confirmed a more severe clinical course of RSV-A, particularly in young children. This study permitted the characterization of recent Italian RSV whole genomes, highlighting the peculiar pattern of mutations that needs to be investigated further and monitored.

Phylogeographical and evolutionary history of variola major virus; a question of timescales?

Aim of this study was to reconstruct the phylogeography of variola virus (VARV) in the XX century, using 47 VARV whole genome sequences available in public databases, through two different methods for ancestral character reconstruction: a frequently used Bayesian framework and a fast maximum-likelihood (ML) based method. The substitution rate of the whole VARV genome was estimated to be between 6.7×10-6 and 1.1×10-5 substitutions/site/year. Both ML and Bayesian methods gave similar trees topology, showing two distinct monophyletic groups: one (known as P1) including the great part of variola major and the second (P2) including West African and American (variola minor) isolates and close evolutionary rate estimations, between 6.73×10-6 and 1.1×10-5 for the whole genome. The phylogeographical reconstruction of P1 suggested that the common ancestor of the variola major circulating in the Old World between the 1940s and the 1970s most probably originated in the Far East in the first decades of the XX century, and then spread to Indian subcontinent in the 1920s. India represented a center of further spread of VARV to eastern Africa in the 1940s and to the Middle East in the 1960s. The phylogeographic scenario obtained by the maximum-likelihood based method was congruent with that obtained by Bayesian framework, but the analysis was faster indicating the usefulness of this method in the analyses of large viral genomes. Our results may help to explain the controversial reconstructions of the history of VARV obtained using long or short timescale for calibration.

Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies and RNA on Autopsy Cases in the Pre-Pandemic Period in Milan (Italy).

In this study, we analyzed blood samples obtained from 169 cadavers subjected to an autopsy from 1 October 2019 to 27 March 2020. The presence of anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (anti-SARS-CoV-2) antibodies was searched by lateral flow immunochromatographic assay (LFIA) and ELISA tests and the SARS-CoV-2 RNA was tested in blood and available lung tissues by real-time PCR (RT-PCR) and droplet digital PCR (ddPCR). Five cases resulted in positives at the serological screening for anti-SARS-CoV-2. Three results were weakly positive for IgM while only one showed strong reactivity for IgG antibodies. The fifth subject (who died in December 2019) resulted positive for the ELISA test. The detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA resulted in positive only in the blood and lung tissues of such cases. These data suggest that cadaveric blood may be a suitable substrate for the assessment of SARS-CoV-2 infection; moreover, they extend the observations of sporadic cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in North Italy prior to the first confirmed cases.

Durability of Humoral Responses after the Second Dose of mRNA BNT162b2 Vaccine in Residents of a Long Term Care Facility.

Residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) have been dramatically hit by the COVID-19 pandemic on a global scale as older age and comorbidities pose an increased risk of severe disease and death. The aim of the study was to assess the quantity and durability of specific antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 after the first cycle (two doses) of BNT162b2 vaccine. To achieve this, SARS-CoV-2 Spike-specific IgG (S-IgG) titers was evaluated in 432 residents of the largest Italian LTCF at months 2 and 6 after vaccination. By stratifying levels of humoral responses as high, medium, low and null, we did not find any difference when comparing the two time points; however, the median levels of antibodies halved overtime. As positive nucleocapsid serology was associated with a reduced risk of a suboptimal response at both time points, we conducted separate analyses accordingly. In subjects with positive serology, the median level of anti-S IgG slightly increased at the second time point, while a significant reduction was observed in patients without previous exposure to the virus. At month 6, diabetes alone was associated with an increased risk of impaired response. Our data provide additional insights into the longitudinal dynamics of the immune response to BNT162b2 vaccination in the elderly, highlighting the need for SARS-CoV-2 antibody monitoring following third-dose administration.

Efficacy of Licensed Monoclonal Antibodies and Antiviral Agents against the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Sublineages BA.1 and BA.2.

Newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants may escape monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and antiviral drugs. By using live virus assays, we assessed the ex vivo inhibition of the B.1 wild-type (WT), delta and omicron BA.1 and BA.2 lineages by post-infusion sera from 40 individuals treated with bamlanivimab/etesevimab (BAM/ETE), casirivimab/imdevimab (CAS/IMD), and sotrovimab (SOT) as well as the activity of remdesivir, nirmatrelvir and molnupiravir. mAbs and drug activity were defined as the serum dilution (ID50) and drug concentration (IC50), respectively, showing 50% protection of virus-induced cytopathic effect. All pre-infusion sera were negative for SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing activity. BAM/ETE, CAS/IMD, and SOT showed activity against the WT (ID50 6295 (4355-8075) for BAM/ETE; 18,214 (16,248-21,365) for CAS/IMD; and 456 (265-592) for SOT) and the delta (14,780 (ID50 10,905-21,020) for BAM/ETE; 63,937 (47,211-79,971) for CAS/IMD; and 1103 (843-1334) for SOT). Notably, only SOT was active against BA.1 (ID50 200 (37-233)), whereas BA.2 was neutralized by CAS/IMD (ID50 174 (134-209) ID50) and SOT (ID50 20 (9-31) ID50), but not by BAM/ETE. No significant inter-variant IC50 differences were observed for molnupiravir (1.5 ± 0.1/1.5 ± 0.7/1.0 ± 0.5/0.8 ± 0.01 µM for WT/delta/BA.1/BA.2, respectively), nirmatrelvir (0.05 ± 0.02/0.06 ± 0.01/0.04 ± 0.02/0.04 ± 0.01 µM) or remdesivir (0.08 ± 0.04/0.11 ± 0.08/0.05 ± 0.04/0.08 ± 0.01 µM). Continued evolution of SARS-CoV-2 requires updating the mAbs arsenal, although antivirals have so far remained unaffected.

Phylogeography and genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy and Europe with newly characterized Italian genomes between February-June 2020.

The aims of this study were to characterize new SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled all over Italy and to reconstruct the origin and the evolutionary dynamics in Italy and Europe between February and June 2020. The cluster analysis showed only small clusters including < 80 Italian isolates, while most of the Italian strains were intermixed in the whole tree. Pure Italian clusters were observed mainly after the lockdown and distancing measures were adopted. Lineage B and B.1 spread between late January and early February 2020, from China to Veneto and Lombardy, respectively. Lineage B.1.1 (20B) most probably evolved within Italy and spread from central to south Italian regions, and to European countries. The lineage B.1.1.1 (20D) developed most probably in other European countries entering Italy only in the second half of March and remained localized in Piedmont until June 2020. In conclusion, within the limitations of phylogeographical reconstruction, the estimated ancestral scenario suggests an important role of China and Italy in the widespread diffusion of the D614G variant in Europe in the early phase of the pandemic and more dispersed exchanges involving several European countries from the second half of March 2020.

Epidemiological and Clinical Features of SARS-CoV-2 Variants Circulating between April-December 2021 in Italy.

SARS-CoV-2 is constantly evolving, leading to new variants. We analysed data from 4400 SARS-CoV-2-positive samples in order to pursue epidemiological variant surveillance and to evaluate their impact on public health in Italy in the period of April-December 2021. The main circulating strain (76.2%) was the Delta variant, followed by the Alpha (13.3%), the Omicron (5.3%), and the Gamma variants (2.9%). The B.1.1 lineages, Eta, Beta, Iota, Mu, and Kappa variants, represented around 1% of cases. There were 48.2% of subjects who had not been vaccinated, and they had a lower median age compared to the vaccinated subjects (47 vs. 61 years). An increasing number of infections in the vaccinated subjects were observed over time, with the highest proportion in November (85.2%). The variants correlated with clinical status; the largest proportion of symptomatic patients (59.6%) was observed with the Delta variant, while subjects harbouring the Gamma variant showed the highest proportion of asymptomatic infection (21.6%), albeit also deaths (5.4%). The Omicron variant was only found in the vaccinated subjects, of which 47% had been hospitalised. The diffusivity and pathogenicity associated with the different SARS-CoV-2 variants are likely to have relevant public health implications, both at the national and international levels. Our study provides data on the rapid changes in the epidemiological landscape of the SARS-CoV-2 variants in Italy.

COVID-19: an outbreak in a nursing home in spring 2021.

INTRODUCTION: Nursing home residents were the most vulnerable population to be affected by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy. The Italian vaccination strategy decided to indicate them as the target population in the first phase of the massive vaccination campaign. We carried out an analysis on an outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection which occurred in a nursing home in northern Italy (Cremona) after the administration of the complete vaccination cycle affecting most of the guests of the structure. METHODS: Data relating to the outbreak were obtained through the Regional Surveillance System for Infectious Diseases of Lombardia Region. RESULTS: During the outbreak, among the 61 guests, 56 were vaccinated. Thirty four were found positive for COVID-19: 22 were asymptomatic, 12 were symptomatic and 4 died. The observed difference in the number of deaths between vaccinated and non-vaccinated subjects was significant. During the outbreak 104 healthcare workers (HCWs) were employed in the nursing home, only 66 were vaccinated. Eight HCWs were found COVID-19 positive, 4 of them were vaccinated and of female gender. CONCLUSIONS: Similarly to data reported in literature for described outbreaks, we observed that the vaccine is able to protect from the symptomatic form and a valid antibody response protect from a symptomatic disease. The low number of HCWs found positive indicates a correct use of individual protective devices.

Early-Transmitted Variants and Their Evolution in a HIV-1 Positive Couple: NGS and Phylogenetic Analyses.

We had access to both components of a couple who became infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 through sexual behavior during the early initial phase of infection and before initiation of therapy. We analyzed blood samples obtained at the time of diagnosis and after six months of combined antiretroviral therapy. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) and phylogenetic analyses were used to investigate the transmission and evolution of HIV-1 quasispecies. Phylogenetic analyses were conducted using Bayesian inference methods. Both partners were infected with an HIV-1 B subtype. No evidence of viral recombination was observed. The lowest intrapersonal genetic distances were observed at baseline, before initiation of therapy, and in particular in the V1V2 fragment (distances ranging from 0.102 to 0.148). One HIV-1 single variant was concluded to be dominant in all of the HIV-1 regions analyzed, although some minor variants could be observed. The same tree structure was observed both at baseline and after six months of therapy. These are the first extended phylogenetic analyses performed on both members of a therapy-naïve couple within a few weeks of infection, and in which the effect of antiretroviral therapy on viral evolution was analyzed. Understanding which HIV-1 variants are most likely to be transmitted would allow a better understanding of viral evolution, possibly playing a role in vaccine design and prevention strategies.