Single nucleotide polymorphism genes and mitochondrial DNA haplogroups as biomarkers for early prediction of knee osteoarthritis structural progressors: use of supervised machine learning classifiers.

BACKGROUND: Knee osteoarthritis is the most prevalent chronic musculoskeletal debilitating disease. Current treatments are only symptomatic, and to improve this, we need a robust prediction model to stratify patients at an early stage according to the risk of joint structure disease progression. Some genetic factors, including single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genes and mitochondrial (mt)DNA haplogroups/clusters, have been linked to this disease. For the first time, we aim to determine, by using machine learning, whether some SNP genes and mtDNA haplogroups/clusters alone or combined could predict early knee osteoarthritis structural progressors. METHODS: Participants (901) were first classified for the probability of being structural progressors. Genotyping included SNP genes TP63, FTO, GNL3, DUS4L, GDF5, SUPT3H, MCF2L, and TGFA; mtDNA haplogroups H, J, T, Uk, and others; and clusters HV, TJ, KU, and C-others. They were considered for prediction with major risk factors of osteoarthritis, namely, age and body mass index (BMI). Seven supervised machine learning methodologies were evaluated. The support vector machine was used to generate gender-based models. The best input combination was assessed using sensitivity and synergy analyses. Validation was performed using tenfold cross-validation and an external cohort (TASOAC). RESULTS: From 277 models, two were defined. Both used age and BMI in addition for the first one of the SNP genes TP63, DUS4L, GDF5, and FTO with an accuracy of 85.0%; the second profits from the association of mtDNA haplogroups and SNP genes FTO and SUPT3H with 82.5% accuracy. The highest impact was associated with the haplogroup H, the presence of CT alleles for rs8044769 at FTO, and the absence of AA for rs10948172 at SUPT3H. Validation accuracy with the cross-validation (about 95%) and the external cohort (90.5%, 85.7%, respectively) was excellent for both models. CONCLUSIONS: This study introduces a novel source of decision support in precision medicine in which, for the first time, two models were developed consisting of (i) age, BMI, TP63, DUS4L, GDF5, and FTO and (ii) the optimum one as it has one less variable: age, BMI, mtDNA haplogroup, FTO, and SUPT3H. Such a framework is translational and would benefit patients at risk of structural progressive knee osteoarthritis.

A continuous data driven translational model to evaluate effectiveness of population-level health interventions: case study, smoking ban in public places on hospital admissions for acute coronary events.

BACKGROUND: An important task in developing accurate public health intervention evaluation methods based on historical interrupted time series (ITS) records is to determine the exact lag time between pre- and post-intervention. We propose a novel continuous transitional data-driven hybrid methodology using a non-linear approach based on a combination of stochastic and artificial intelligence methods that facilitate the evaluation of ITS data without knowledge of lag time. Understanding the influence of implemented intervention on outcome(s) is imperative for decision makers in order to manage health systems accurately and in a timely manner. METHODS: To validate a developed hybrid model, we used, as an example, a published dataset based on a real health problem on the effects of the Italian smoking ban in public spaces on hospital admissions for acute coronary events. We employed a continuous methodology based on data preprocessing to identify linear and nonlinear components in which autoregressive moving average and generalized structure group method of data handling were combined to model stochastic and nonlinear components of ITS. We analyzed the rate of admission for acute coronary events from January 2002 to November 2006 using this new data-driven hybrid methodology that allowed for long-term outcome prediction. RESULTS: Our results showed the Pearson correlation coefficient of the proposed combined transitional data-driven model exhibited an average of 17.74% enhancement from the single stochastic model and 2.05% from the nonlinear model. In addition, data demonstrated that the developed model improved the mean absolute percentage error and correlation coefficient values for which 2.77% and 0.89 were found compared to 4.02% and 0.76, respectively. Importantly, this model does not use any predefined lag time between pre- and post-intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the previous studies employed the linear regression and considered a lag time to interpret the impact of intervention on public health outcome. The proposed hybrid methodology improved ITS prediction from conventional methods and could be used as a reliable alternative in public health intervention evaluation.

Viewpoint on Time Series and Interrupted Time Series Optimum Modeling for Predicting Arthritic Disease Outcomes.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The propose of this viewpoint is to improve or facilitate the clinical decision-making in the management/treatment strategies of arthritis patients through knowing, understanding, and having access to an interactive process allowing assessment of the patient disease outcome in the future. RECENT FINDINGS: In recent years, the time series (TS) concept has become the center of attention as a predictive model for making forecast of unseen data values. TS and one of its technologies, the interrupted TS (ITS) analysis (TS with one or more interventions), predict the next period(s) value(s) of a given patient based on their past and current information. Traditional TS/ITS methods involve segmented regression-based technologies (linear and nonlinear), while stochastic (linear modeling) and artificial intelligence approaches, including machine learning (complex nonlinear relationships between variables), are also used; however, each have limitations. We will briefly describe TS/ITS, provide examples of their application in arthritic diseases; describe their methods, challenges, and limitations; and propose a combined (stochastic and artificial intelligence) procedure in post-intervention that will optimize ITS modeling. This combined method will increase the accuracy of ITS modeling by profiting from the advantages of both stochastic and nonlinear models to capture all ITS deterministic and stochastic components. In addition, this combined method will allow ITS outcomes to be predicted as continuous variables without having to consider the time lag produced between the pre- and post-intervention periods, thus minimizing the prediction error not only for the given data but also for all possible future patterns in ITS. The use of reliable prediction methodologies for arthritis patients will permit treatment of not only the disease, but also the patient with the disease, ensuring the best outcome prediction for the patient.

A Novel Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Estimating the Bank Profile Shape and Dimensions of Stable Channels Using the Maximum Entropy Principle.

This paper presents an extensive and practical study of the estimation of stable channel bank shape and dimensions using the maximum entropy principle. The transverse slope (St) distribution of threshold channel bank cross-sections satisfies the properties of the probability space. The entropy of St is subject to two constraint conditions, and the principle of maximum entropy must be applied to find the least biased probability distribution. Accordingly, the Lagrange multiplier (λ) as a critical parameter in the entropy equation is calculated numerically based on the maximum entropy principle. The main goal of the present paper is the investigation of the hydraulic parameters influence governing the mean transverse slope (St¯) value comprehensively using a Gene Expression Programming (GEP) by knowing the initial information (discharge (Q) and mean sediment size (d50)) related to the intended problem. An explicit and simple equation of the St¯ of banks and the geometric and hydraulic parameters of flow is introduced based on the GEP in combination with the previous shape profile equation related to previous researchers. Therefore, a reliable numerical hybrid model is designed, namely Entropy-based Design Model of Threshold Channels (EDMTC) based on entropy theory combined with the evolutionary algorithm of the GEP model, for estimating the bank profile shape and also dimensions of threshold channels. A wide range of laboratory and field data are utilized to verify the proposed EDMTC. The results demonstrate that the used Shannon entropy model is accurate with a lower average value of Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) equal to 0.317 than a previous model proposed by Cao and Knight (1997) (MARE = 0.98) in estimating the bank profile shape of threshold channels based on entropy for the first time. Furthermore, the EDMTC proposed in this paper has acceptable accuracy in predicting the shape profile and consequently, the dimensions of threshold channel banks with a wide range of laboratory and field data when only the channel hydraulic characteristics (e.g., Q and d50) are known. Thus, EDMTC can be used in threshold channel design and implementation applications in cases when the channel characteristics are unknown. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis of the EDMTC supports the model's high reliability with a Width of Uncertainty Bound (WUB) of ±0.03 and standard deviation (Sd) of 0.24.

Predicting wastewater treatment plant quality parameters using a novel hybrid linear-nonlinear methodology.

Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total dissolved solids (TDS) and total suspended solids (TSS) are the most commonly regulated wastewater effluent parameters. The measurement and prediction of these parameters are essential for assessing the performance and upgrade of wastewater treatment facilities. In this study, a new methodology, combining a linear stochastic model (ARIMA) and nonlinear outlier robust extreme learning machine technique (ORELM) with various preprocesses, is presented to model the quality parameters of effluent wastewater (ARIMA-ORELM). For each of the studied parameters, 144 different (144 × 8 models) linear models (ARIMA) are presented, with the superior model of each parameter being selected based on statistical indices. Moreover, 48 nonlinear models (ORELM) and 48 hybrid models (ARIMA-ORELM) were considered. The use of linear and nonlinear approaches to model the linear and nonlinear terms (respectively) of each time series in the hybrid model increased the efficiency and accuracy of the predictions for all of the time series. The influent wastewater nonlinear TSS model and the effluent COD and BOD models attained the best performance with a high correlation coefficient of 0.95. The use of hybrid models improved the prediction capability of all quality parameters with the best performance being achieved for the effluent BOD model (R2 = 0.99).

Novel hybrid linear stochastic with non-linear extreme learning machine methods for forecasting monthly rainfall a tropical climate.

A novel hybrid approach is presented that can more accurately predict monthly rainfall in a tropical climate by integrating a linear stochastic model with a powerful non-linear extreme learning machine method. This new hybrid method was then evaluated by considering four general scenarios. In the first scenario, the modeling process is initiated without preprocessing input data as a base case. While in other three scenarios, the one-step and two-step procedures are utilized to make the model predictions more precise. The mentioned scenarios are based on a combination of stationarization techniques (i.e., differencing, seasonal and non-seasonal standardization and spectral analysis), and normality transforms (i.e., Box-Cox, John and Draper, Yeo and Johnson, Johnson, Box-Cox-Mod, log, log standard, and Manly). In scenario 2, which is a one-step scenario, the stationarization methods are employed as preprocessing approaches. In scenario 3 and 4, different combinations of normality transform, and stationarization methods are considered as preprocessing techniques. In total, 61 sub-scenarios are evaluated resulting 11013 models (10785 linear methods, 4 nonlinear models, and 224 hybrid models are evaluated). The uncertainty of the linear, nonlinear and hybrid models are examined by Monte Carlo technique. The best preprocessing technique is the utilization of Johnson normality transform and seasonal standardization (respectively) (R2 = 0.99; RMSE = 0.6; MAE = 0.38; RMSRE = 0.1, MARE = 0.06, UI = 0.03 &UII = 0.05). The results of uncertainty analysis indicated the good performance of proposed technique (d-factor = 0.27; 95PPU = 83.57). Moreover, the results of the proposed methodology in this study were compared with an evolutionary hybrid of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with firefly algorithm (ANFIS-FFA) demonstrating that the new hybrid methods outperformed ANFIS-FFA method.

Multi-objective evolutionary polynomial regression-based prediction of energy consumption probing.

Electrocoagulation (EC) is employed to investigate the energy consumption (EnC) of synthetic wastewater. In order to find the best process conditions, the influence of various parameters including initial pH, initial dye concentration, applied voltage, initial electrolyte concentration, and treatment time are investigated in this study. EnC is considered the main criterion of process evaluation in investigating the effect of the independent variables on the EC process and determining the optimum condition. Evolutionary polynomial regression is combined with a multi-objective genetic algorithm (EPR-MOGA) to present a new, simple and accurate equation for estimating EnC to overcome existing method weaknesses. To survey the influence of the effective variables, six different input combinations are considered. According to the results, EPR-MOGA Model 1 is the most accurate compared to other models, as it has the lowest error indices in predicting EnC (MARE = 0.35, RMSE = 2.33, SI = 0.23 and R2 = 0.98). A comparison of EPR-MOGA with reduced quadratic multiple regression methods in terms of feasibility confirms that EPR-MOGA is an effective alternative method. Moreover, the partial derivative sensitivity analysis method is employed to analyze the EnC variation trend according to input variables.

A support vector regression-firefly algorithm-based model for limiting velocity prediction in sewer pipes.

Sediment transport without deposition is an essential consideration in the optimum design of sewer pipes. In this study, a novel method based on a combination of support vector regression (SVR) and the firefly algorithm (FFA) is proposed to predict the minimum velocity required to avoid sediment settling in pipe channels, which is expressed as the densimetric Froude number (Fr). The efficiency of support vector machine (SVM) models depends on the suitable selection of SVM parameters. In this particular study, FFA is used by determining these SVM parameters. The actual effective parameters on Fr calculation are generally identified by employing dimensional analysis. The different dimensionless variables along with the models are introduced. The best performance is attributed to the model that employs the sediment volumetric concentration (C(V)), ratio of relative median diameter of particles to hydraulic radius (d/R), dimensionless particle number (D(gr)) and overall sediment friction factor (λ(s)) parameters to estimate Fr. The performance of the SVR-FFA model is compared with genetic programming, artificial neural network and existing regression-based equations. The results indicate the superior performance of SVR-FFA (mean absolute percentage error = 2.123%; root mean square error =0.116) compared with other methods.

An expert system with radial basis function neural network based on decision trees for predicting sediment transport in sewers.

In this study, an expert system with a radial basis function neural network (RBF-NN) based on decision trees (DT) is designed to predict sediment transport in sewer pipes at the limit of deposition. First, sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the effect of each parameter on predicting the densimetric Froude number (Fr). The results indicate that utilizing the ratio of the median particle diameter to pipe diameter (d/D), ratio of median particle diameter to hydraulic radius (d/R) and volumetric sediment concentration (C(V)) as the input combination leads to the best Fr prediction. Subsequently, the new hybrid DT-RBF method is presented. The results of DT-RBF are compared with RBF and RBF-particle swarm optimization (PSO), which uses PSO for RBF training. It appears that DT-RBF is more accurate (R(2) = 0.934, MARE = 0.103, RMSE = 0.527, SI = 0.13, BIAS = -0.071) than the two other RBF methods. Moreover, the proposed DT-RBF model offers explicit expressions for use by practicing engineers.

Application of a soft computing technique in predicting the percentage of shear force carried by walls in a rectangular channel with non-homogeneous roughness.

Two new soft computing models, namely genetic programming (GP) and genetic artificial algorithm (GAA) neural network (a combination of modified genetic algorithm and artificial neural network methods) were developed in order to predict the percentage of shear force in a rectangular channel with non-homogeneous roughness. The ability of these methods to estimate the percentage of shear force was investigated. Moreover, the independent parameters' effectiveness in predicting the percentage of shear force was determined using sensitivity analysis. According to the results, the GP model demonstrated superior performance to the GAA model. A comparison was also made between the GP program determined as the best model and five equations obtained in prior research. The GP model with the lowest error values (root mean square error ((RMSE) of 0.0515) had the best function compared with the other equations presented for rough and smooth channels as well as smooth ducts. The equation proposed for rectangular channels with rough boundaries (RMSE of 0.0642) outperformed the prior equations for smooth boundaries.

Comparison of genetic algorithm and imperialist competitive algorithms in predicting bed load transport in clean pipe.

The existence of sediments in wastewater greatly affects the performance of the sewer and wastewater transmission systems. Increased sedimentation in wastewater collection systems causes problems such as reduced transmission capacity and early combined sewer overflow. The article reviews the performance of the genetic algorithm (GA) and imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) in minimizing the target function (mean square error of observed and predicted Froude number). To study the impact of bed load transport parameters, using four non-dimensional groups, six different models have been presented. Moreover, the roulette wheel selection method is used to select the parents. The ICA with root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.007, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 3.5% show better results than GA (RMSE = 0.007, MAPE = 5.6%) for the selected model. All six models return better results than the GA. Also, the results of these two algorithms were compared with multi-layer perceptron and existing equations.

Establishment of relationship between mean and maximum velocities in narrow sewers.

The maximum velocity in any channel cross section might be as important as the mean velocity. It is easier to measure the maximum velocity than the mean velocity, and many flow rate sensors measure maximum velocity and convert it to mean velocity for the evaluation of the discharge. The experimental results obtained from two actual sites and the comparison with their estimated values, are presented in this study. The plots of isovel lines of the primary velocity from each site are presented. Concerning narrow channel properties, it was observed that the maximum velocity occurred below the free surface. Several series of measurements from these sites were collected to explore the relationship between the cross-sectional mean (U(mean)) and maximum velocity (U(max) under different hydraulic conditions. Additional velocity data and measurements in flumes and rivers were also collected from work of other researchers in order to compare this relationship in different cases. It was found that the ratio of the U(mean) on U(max) in narrow channels was higher than that in rivers with a large aspect ratio (width/water height).

A Machine Learning Model to Predict Knee Osteoarthritis Cartilage Volume Changes over Time Using Baseline Bone Curvature.

The hallmark of osteoarthritis (OA), the most prevalent musculoskeletal disease, is the loss of cartilage. By using machine learning (ML), we aimed to assess if baseline knee bone curvature (BC) could predict cartilage volume loss (CVL) at one year, and to develop a gender-based model. BC and cartilage volume were assessed on 1246 participants using magnetic resonance imaging. Variables included age, body mass index, and baseline values of eight BC regions. The outcome consisted of CVL at one year in 12 regions. Five ML methods were evaluated. Validation demonstrated very good accuracy for both genders (R ≥ 0.78), except the medial tibial plateau for the woman. In conclusion, we demonstrated, for the first time, that knee CVL at one year could be predicted using five baseline BC region values. This would benefit patients at risk of structural progressive knee OA.

A warning machine learning algorithm for early knee osteoarthritis structural progressor patient screening.

AIM: In osteoarthritis (OA) there is a need for automated screening systems for early detection of structural progressors. We built a comprehensive machine learning (ML) model that bridges major OA risk factors and serum levels of adipokines/related inflammatory factors at baseline for early prediction of at-risk knee OA patient structural progressors over time. METHODS: The patient- and gender-based model development used baseline serum levels of six adipokines, three related inflammatory factors and their ratios (36), as well as major OA risk factors [age and bone mass index (BMI)]. Subjects (677) were selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) progression subcohort. The probability values of being structural progressors (PVBSP) were generated using our previously published prediction model, including five baseline structural features of the knee, i.e. two X-rays and three magnetic resonance imaging variables. To identify the most important variables amongst the 47 studied in relation to PVBSP, we employed the ML feature classification methodology. Among five supervised ML algorithms, the support vector machine (SVM) demonstrated the best accuracy and use for gender-based classifiers development. Performance and sensitivity of the models were assessed. A reproducibility analysis was performed with clinical trial OA patients. RESULTS: Feature selections revealed that the combination of age, BMI, and the ratios CRP/MCP-1 and leptin/CRP are the most important variables in predicting OA structural progressors in both genders. Classification accuracies for both genders in the testing stage (OAI) were >80%, with the highest sensitivity of CRP/MCP-1. Reproducibility analysis showed an accuracy ⩾92%; the ratio CRP/MCP-1 demonstrated the highest sensitivity in women and leptin/CRP in men. CONCLUSION: This is the first time that such a framework was built for predicting knee OA structural progressors. Using this automated ML patient- and gender-based model, early prediction of knee structural OA progression can be performed with high accuracy using only three baseline serum biomarkers and two risk factors. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Machine learning model for early knee osteoarthritis structural progression Knee osteoarthritis is a well-known debilitating disease leading to reduced mobility and quality of life - the main causes of chronic invalidity. Disease evolution can be slow and span many years; however, for some individuals, the progression/evolution can be fast. Current treatments are only symptomatic and conventional diagnosis of osteoarthritis is not very effective in early identification of patients who will progress rapidly. To improve therapeutic approaches, we need a robust prediction model to stratify osteoarthritis patients at an early stage according to risk of joint structure disease progression.We hypothesize that a prediction model using a machine learning system would enable such an early identification of individuals for whom osteoarthritis knee structure will degrade rapidly. Data were from the Osteoarthritis Initiative, a National Institute of Health (United States) databank, and the robustness and generalizability of the developed model was further evaluated using osteoarthritis patients from an external cohort. Using the supervised machine learning system (support vector machine), we developed an automated patient- and gender-based model enabling an early clinical prognosis for individuals at high risk of structural progressive osteoarthritis. In brief, this model employed at baseline (when the subject sees a physician) easily obtained features consisting of the two main osteoarthritis risk factors, age and bone mass index (BMI), in addition to the serum levels of three molecules. Two of these molecules belong to a family of factors names adipokines and one to a related inflammatory factor. In brief, the model comprising a combination of age, BMI, and the ratios CRP/MCP-1 and leptin/CRP were found very robust for both genders, and the high accuracy persists when tested with an external cohort conferring the gender-based model generalizability. This study offers a new automated system for identifying early knee osteoarthritis structural progressors, which will significantly improve clinical prognosis with real time patient monitoring.

Mapping the spatial and temporal variability of flood susceptibility using remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index and the forecasted changes in the future.

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a considerable role in the appropriate water resource planning and management. The spatial and temporal evaluation of the flood susceptibility was explored in the Quebec basin, Canada. This study provides a new strategy for runoff modelling as one of the complicated variables by developing new machine learning techniques along with remote sensing. A novel scheme of the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) known as the generalized structure of GMDH (GSGGMDH) is developed to overcome this classical approach's limitation. A simple time series based scenario with exogenous variables including precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was introduced for runoff forecasting. MODIS data included MOD13Q1 product was employed and a JavaScript code was developed to preprocess collected data in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment. Using different seasonal and non-seasonal lags of all input variables, the developed GSGMDH found the most optimum input combination for each station in terms of simplicity and accuracy, simultaneously (average values; SI = 0.554, RMSRE = 1.55, MAE = 5.076). The precipitation values are modelled with the CanEsm2 climate change model. To apply NDVI for runoff forecasting, a simple spatial-temporal GSGMDH based model was developed (average values; SI = 0.27; RMSRE = 8.27, MAE = 0.08). The forecasting results indicated that the months in which the maximum runoff occurred have changed, and these months have increased compared to the historic period. In the historical period, the frequency of maximum runoff was in April and March. Still, for the two forecasting periods (i.e. 2020-2039 and 2040-2059), the months in which the maximum runoff has occurred have changed, and their amount has been reduced and added to other months, especially February and August.

A reliable time-series method for predicting arthritic disease outcomes: New step from regression toward a nonlinear artificial intelligence method.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The interrupted time-series (ITS) concept is performed using linear regression to evaluate the impact of policy changes in public health at a specific time. Objectives of this study were to verify, with an artificial intelligence-based nonlinear approach, if the estimation of ITS data could be facilitated, in addition to providing a computationally explicit equation. METHODS: Dataset were from a study of Hawley et al. (2018) in which they evaluated the impact of UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) approval of tumor necrosis factor inhibitor therapies on the incidence of total hip (THR) and knee (TKR) replacement in rheumatoid arthritis patients. We used the newly developed Generalized Structure Group Method of Data Handling (GS-GMDH) model, a nonlinear method, for the prediction of THR and TKR incidence in the abovementioned population. RESULTS: In contrast to linear regression, the GS-GMDH yields for both THR and TKR prediction values that almost fitted with the measured ones. These models demonstrated a low mean absolute relative error (0.10 and 0.09 respectively) and high correlation coefficient values (0.98 and 0.78). The GS-GMDH model for THR demonstrated 6.4/1000 person years (PYs) at the mid-point of the linear regression line post-NICE, whereas at the same point linear regression is 4.12/1000 PYs, a difference of around 35%. Similarly for the TKR, the linear regression to the datasets post-NICE was 9.05/1000 PYs, which is lower by about 27% than the GS-GMDH values of 12.47/1000 PYs. Importantly, with the GS-GMDH models, there is no need to identify the change point and intervention lag time as they simulate ITS continually throughout modelling. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrate that in the medical field, when looking at the estimation of the impact of a new drug using ITS, a nonlinear GS-GMDH method could be used as a better alternative to regression-based methods data processing. In addition to yielding more accurate predictions and requiring less time-consuming experimental measurements, this nonlinear method addresses, for the first time, one of the most challenging tasks in ITS modelling, i.e. avoiding the need to identify the change point and intervention lag time.

A generalized linear stochastic model for lake level prediction.

Endorheic lakes are one of the most important factors of an environment. Regarding their morphology, these lakes, in particular saline lakes, are much more sensitive and can either benefit or pose a threat to their surroundings. Thus, constant monitoring of such lakes' water level, modeling and analyzing them for future planning and management policies is vitally important. We proposed a generalized linear stochastic model (GLSM) for forecasting the weekly and monthly Urmia lake water levels, the sixth-largest saltwater lake on Earth. In this methodology, three approaches are defined to pre-process data. The first approach is merely based on the differencing method, while the second and third are a one-step (the combination of de-trending with standardization and spectral analysis) and two-step (the combination of the 2nd approach with normalization transform) preprocessing, respectively. A thorough comparison of the GLSM results with eminence nonlinear AI models (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems, ANFIS, Multilayer Perceptron, MLP, Gene Expression Programming, GEP, Support Vector Machine with Firefly algorithm, SVM-FFA, and Artificial Neural Networks ANN) showed that by using an appropriate method that delivers accurate information of the entailing terms in time series, it is possible to model Urmia lake level with acceptable precision. Concisely, the GSLM with coefficients of determination (R2) 99.957% and root mean squared error (RMSE) of 2.121% outperformed the SVM-FFA with R2 99.59%, RMSE 3.27%, ANN with R2 99.56%, RMSE 3.3%, ANFIS with R2 98.9%, RMSE 4.3%, GP with R2 99.89%, RMSE 3.47%, GEP with R2 94.75%, RMSE 4.15% for forecasting weekly time series. In forecasting monthly time series, the GLSM method with R2 99.517% and RMSE 6.91% also outperformed GEP R2 91.95%, RMSE 15.3%, ANFIS R2 92.85%, RMSE 47.55% models. Consequently, GSLM proved that by applying proper comprehensible linear techniques promising results can be obtained rather than using sophisticated AI methods.

A novel stochastic wastewater quality modeling based on fuzzy techniques.

Measurement and prediction of wastewater quality parameters are crucial for evaluating the risk to the receiving waters. This study presents new methods for the identification of outlier data and smoothing as an effective pre-processing technique prito to modelling. This new data processing method uses a combination of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and -the adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system with fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM) (ANFIS-FCM). These new pre-processing methodsare compared to previously employed non-linear approaches for modelling of wastewater influent/effluent 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total suspended solids (TSS). Linear modelling of each parameter, 242 linear models, were investigated, and a linear model for each parameter was selected. The results of the non-linear models led to an acceptable prediction for qualitative parameters so that the high coefficient of determination (R 2 ) was observed for the influent and effluent BOD and TSS, respectively. The range of the R 2 for all models was recorded as 0.8-0.87 and 0.83-0.89, respectively. By a combination of the linear and non-linear mothods a hybrid model was introduced. The proposed hybrid model for the influent BOD with the highest correlation between the observed and predicted values, and limited scattering was identified as the optimal model (R2 = 0.95). The use of hybrid models to predict wastewater quality parameters improved the performance and efficiency of the models. In addition, a comparison of the hybrid model with the recently developed models in the literature indicates that the developed ARIMA-ANFIS-FCM outperformed other models.

Serum adipokines/related inflammatory factors and ratios as predictors of infrapatellar fat pad volume in osteoarthritis: Applying comprehensive machine learning approaches.

OBJECTIVE: The infrapatellar fat pad (IPFP) has been associated with knee osteoarthritis onset and progression. This study uses machine learning (ML) approaches to predict serum levels of some adipokines/related inflammatory factors and their ratios on knee IPFP volume of osteoarthritis patients. METHODS: Serum and MRI were from the OAI at baseline. Variables comprised the 3 main osteoarthritis risk factors (age, gender, BMI), 6 adipokines, 3 inflammatory factors, and their 36 ratios. IPFP volume was assessed on MRI with a ML methodology. The best variables and models were identified in Total-cohort (n = 678), High-BMI (n = 341) and Low-BMI (n = 337), using a selection approach based on ML methods. RESULTS: The best model for each group included three risk factors and adipsin/C-reactive protein combined for Total-cohort, adipsin/chemerin; High-BMI, chemerin/adiponectin HMW; and Low-BMI, interleukin-8. Gender separation improved the prediction (13-16%) compared to the BMI-based models. Reproducibility with osteoarthritis patients from a clinical trial was excellent (R: female 0.83, male 0.95). Pseudocodes based on gender were generated. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates for the first time that the combination of the serum levels of adipokines/inflammatory factors and the three main risk factors of osteoarthritis could predict IPFP volume with high reproducibility, with the superior performance of the model accounting for gender separation.