2020 design and methods of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study is a nationally representative, longitudinal study of the US population on tobacco use and its effects on health, collecting data annually since 2013. The COVID-19 pandemic interrupted in-person survey data collections around the world. In the USA, this included a PATH Study data collection focused on youth (13-17) and young adults (18-19) as well as other US surveys on tobacco use. Given that it was necessary to pause data collection and considering that tobacco-use behaviours could be expected to change along with pandemic-related changes in the social environment, the original design for the 2020 PATH Study data collection for youth and young adults was modified. Also, the PATH Study Adult Telephone Survey was developed to address the need for adult tobacco use monitoring in this unprecedented time. This article describes the modifications made to the 2020 PATH Study design and protocol to provide nationally representative data for youth and adults after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the implications of these modifications for researchers.

Predictors of E-cigarette and Cigarette Use Trajectory Classes from Early Adolescence to Emerging Adulthood Across Four Years (2013-2017) of the PATH Study.

INTRODUCTION: This study examines predictors of trajectories of cigarette and e-cigarette use among a cohort of US adolescents transitioning into young adulthood. Comparing trajectories of each tobacco product is important to determine if different intervention targets are needed to prevent progression to daily use. METHODS: Latent trajectory class analyses identified cigarette and e-cigarette use (never, ever excluding past 12-month, past 12-month (excluding past 30-day (P30D)), P30D 1-5 days, P30D 6+ days) trajectory classes, separately, among US youth (12-17; N = 10,086) using the first 4 waves (2013-2017) of data from the nationally representative PATH Study. Weighted descriptive analyses described the class characteristics. Weighted multinomial logistic regression analyses examined demographic, psychosocial, and behavioral predictors of class membership. RESULTS: Younger adolescents 12-15 years had lower tobacco use compared to 16-17 year olds and less stable classes. In the 16-17 year group, there were five unique trajectories of cigarette smoking, including a Persistent High Frequency class. Four e-cigarette use trajectories were identified; but not a persistent use class. Shared predictors of class membership for cigarettes and e-cigarettes included mental health problems, other tobacco use, marijuana use, and poorer academic achievement. Male sex and household tobacco use were unique e-cigarette trajectory class predictors. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence that initiation with e-cigarettes as the first product tried was associated with cigarette progression (nor cigarettes as first product and e-cigarette progression). Interventions should focus on well-established risk factors such as mental health and other substance use to prevent progression of use for both tobacco products. IMPLICATIONS: Using nationally representative data and definitions of use that take into account frequency and recency of use, longitudinal 4-year trajectories of e-cigarette and cigarette use among US adolescents transitioning into young adulthood were identified. Results among 16-17-year olds revealed a class of persistent high frequency cigarette smoking that was not identified for e-cigarette use. Cigarette use progression was not associated with e-cigarettes as the first product tried. Risk factors for progression of use of both products included mental health and other substance use, which are important prevention targets for both tobacco products.

Variability in Urinary Nicotine Exposure Biomarker Levels Between Waves 1 (2013-2014) and 2 (2014-2015) in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study.

INTRODUCTION: To date, no studies have evaluated the consistency of biomarker levels in people who smoke over a long-time period in real-world conditions with a large number of subjects and included use behavior and measures of nicotine metabolism. We evaluated the variability of biomarkers of nicotine exposure over approximately a 1-year period in people who exclusively smoke cigarettes, including intensity and recency of use and brand switching to assess impact on understanding associations with product characteristics. AIMS AND METHODS: Multivariate regression analysis of longitudinal repeated measures of urinary biomarkers of nicotine exposure from 916 adults in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study with demographic characteristics and use behavior variables. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated to examine individual variation of nicotine biomarkers and the uncertainty of repeat measures at two time points (Waves 1 and 2). RESULTS: Age, race, and urinary creatinine were significant covariates of urinary cotinine. When including use behavior, recency, and intensity of use were highly significant and variance decreased to a higher extent between than within subjects. The ICC for urinary cotinine decreased from 0.7530 with no use behavior variables in the model to 0.5763 when included. Similar results were found for total nicotine equivalents. CONCLUSIONS: Urinary nicotine biomarkers in the PATH Study showed good consistency between Waves 1 and 2. Use behavior measures such as time since last smoked a cigarette and number of cigarettes smoked in the past 30 days are important to include when assessing factors that may influence biomarker concentrations. IMPLICATIONS: The results of this study show that the consistency of the nicotine biomarkers cotinine and total nicotine equivalents in spot urine samples from Waves 1 to 2 of the PATH Study is high enough that these data are useful to evaluate the association of cigarette characteristics with biomarkers of exposure under real-world use conditions.

Update to the design and methods of the PATH Study, Wave 4 (2016-2017).

The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study is a nationally representative study of the US population on tobacco use and its effects on health, with four waves of data collection between 2013 and 2017. Prior work described the methods of the first three waves. In this paper, we describe the methods of Wave 4, during which a replenishment sample was added to the ongoing cohort. We describe the design and estimation methods of the continuing Wave 1 cohort (with four waves of data) and the Wave 4 cohort (the new cohort created at Wave 4). We provide survey quality metrics, including response rates for both cohorts and a panel conditioning analysis, and guidance on understanding the target populations for both cohorts.

Tobacco Use and Respiratory Symptoms Among Adults: Findings From the Longitudinal Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study 2014-2016.

INTRODUCTION: We examined the relationship between current tobacco use and functionally important respiratory symptoms. METHODS: Longitudinal cohort study of 16 295 US adults without COPD in Waves 2-3 (W2-3, 2014-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. Exposure-Ten mutually exclusive categories of tobacco use including single product, multiple product, former, and never use (reference). Outcome-Seven questions assessing wheezing/cough were summed to create a respiratory symptom index; cutoffs of ≥2 and ≥3 were associated with functional limitations and poorer health. Multivariable regressions examined both cutoffs cross-sectionally and change over approximately 12 months, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: All tobacco use categories featuring cigarettes (>2/3's of users) were associated with higher risk (vs. never users) for functionally important respiratory symptoms at W2, for example, at symptom severity ≥ 3, risk ratio for exclusive cigarette use was 2.34 [95% CI, 1.92, 2.85] and for worsening symptoms at W3 was 2.80 [2.08, 3.76]. There was largely no increased symptom risk for exclusive use of cigars, smokeless tobacco, hookah, or e-cigarettes (adjustment for pack-years and marijuana attenuated the cross-sectional e-cigarette association from 1.53(95% CI 0.98, 2.40) to 1.05 (0.67, 1.63); RRs for these products were also significantly lower compared to exclusive use of cigarettes. The longitudinal e-cigarette-respiratory symptom association was sensitive to the respiratory index cutoff level; exclusive e-cigarette use was associated with worsening symptoms at an index cutoff ≥ 2 (RR = 1.63 [1.02, 2.59]) and with symptom improvement at an index cutoff of ≥ 3 (RR = 1.64 [1.04, 2.58]). CONCLUSIONS: Past and current cigarette smoking drove functionally important respiratory symptoms, while exclusive use of other tobacco products was largely not associated. However, the relationship between e-cigarette use and symptoms was sensitive to adjustment for pack-years and symptom severity. IMPLICATIONS: How noncigarette tobacco products affect respiratory symptoms is not clear; some studies implicate e-cigarettes. We examined functionally important respiratory symptoms (wheezing/nighttime cough) among US adults without COPD. The majority of adult tobacco users smoke cigarettes and have higher risk of respiratory symptoms and worsening of symptoms, regardless of other products used with them. Exclusive use of other tobacco products (e-cigarettes, cigars, smokeless, hookah) was largely not associated with functionally important respiratory symptoms and risks associated with their use was significantly lower than for cigarettes. The association for e-cigarettes was greatly attenuated by adjustment for cigarette pack-years and sensitive to how symptoms were defined.

Urinary Nicotine Metabolites and Self-Reported Tobacco Use Among Adults in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, 2013-2014.

INTRODUCTION: The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study is a longitudinal cohort study on tobacco use behavior, attitudes and beliefs, and tobacco-related health outcomes, including biomarkers of tobacco exposure in the U.S. population. In this report we provide a summary of urinary nicotine metabolite measurements among adult users and non-users of tobacco from Wave 1 (2013-2014) of the PATH Study. METHODS: Total nicotine and its metabolites including cotinine, trans-3'-hydroxycotinine (HCTT), and other minor metabolites were measured in more than 11 500 adult participants by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry methods. Weighted geometric means (GM) and least square means from statistical modeling were calculated for non-users and users of various tobacco products. RESULTS: Among daily users, the highest GM concentrations of nicotine, cotinine and HCTT were found in exclusive smokeless tobacco users, and the lowest in exclusive e-cigarette users. Exclusive combustible product users had intermediate concentrations, similar to those found in users of multiple products (polyusers). Concentrations increased with age within the categories of tobacco users, and differences associated with gender, race/ethnicity and educational attainment were also noted among user categories. Recent (past 12 months) former users had GM cotinine concentrations that were more than threefold greater than never users. CONCLUSIONS: These urinary nicotine metabolite data provide quantification of nicotine exposure representative of the entire US adult population during 2013-2014 and may serve as a reference for similar analyses in future measurements within this study. IMPLICATIONS: Nicotine and its metabolites in urine provide perhaps the most fundamental biomarkers of recent nicotine exposure. This report, based on Wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, provides the first nationally representative data describing urinary nicotine biomarker concentrations in both non-users, and users of a variety of tobacco products including combustible, e-cigarette and smokeless products. These data provide a urinary biomarker concentration snapshot in time for the entire US population during 2013-2014, and will provide a basis for comparison with future results from continuing, periodic evaluations in the PATH Study.

Serum Concentrations of Cotinine and Trans-3'-Hydroxycotinine in US Adults: Results From Wave 1 (2013-2014) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study.

INTRODUCTION: The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study is a nationally representative cohort of tobacco product users and nonusers. The study's main purpose is to obtain longitudinal epidemiologic data on tobacco use and exposure among the US population. AIMS AND METHODS: Nicotine biomarkers-cotinine (COT) and trans-3'-hydroxycotinine (HCT)-were measured in blood samples collected from adult daily tobacco users and nonusers during Wave 1 of the PATH Study (2013-2014; n = 5012; one sample per participant). Participants' tobacco product use and exposure to secondhand smoke were categorized based on questionnaire responses. Nonusers were subdivided into never users and recent former users. Daily tobacco users were classified into seven tobacco product use categories: exclusive users of cigarette, smokeless tobacco, electronic cigarette, cigar, pipe, and hookah, as well as polyusers. We calculated sample-weighted geometric mean (GM) concentrations of cotinine, HCT, and the nicotine metabolite ratio (NMR) and evaluated their associations with tobacco use with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: The GMs (95% confidence intervals) of COT and HCT concentrations for daily tobacco users were 196 (184 to 208) and 72.5 (67.8 to 77.4) ng/mL, and for nonusers they were 0.033 (0.028 to 0.037) and 0.021 (0.018 to 0.023) ng/mL. Exclusive smokeless tobacco users had the highest COT concentrations of all user groups examined. The GM NMR in daily users was 0.339 (95% confidence interval: 0.330 to 0.350). CONCLUSIONS: These nationally representative estimates of serum nicotine biomarkers could be the basis for reference ranges characterizing nicotine exposure for daily tobacco users and nonusers in the US adult population. IMPLICATIONS: This report summarizes the serum nicotine biomarker measurements in Wave 1 of the PATH Study. We are reporting the first estimates of HCT in serum for daily tobacco users and nonusers in the noninstitutionalized, civilian US adult population; the first nationally representative serum COT estimates for daily exclusive users of different tobacco products and daily polyusers; and the first nationally representative estimate of the serum NMR in daily tobacco users by age, race/ethnicity, and sex.

Exposure to Nicotine and Toxicants Among Dual Users of Tobacco Cigarettes and E-Cigarettes: Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, 2013-2014.

INTRODUCTION: Concurrent use of tobacco cigarettes and e-cigarettes ("dual use") is common among tobacco users. Little is known about differences in demographics and toxicant exposure among subsets of dual users. AIMS AND METHODS: We analyzed data from adult dual users (current every/some day users of tobacco cigarettes and e-cigarettes, n = 792) included in the PATH Study Wave 1 (2013-2014) and provided urine samples. Samples were analyzed for biomarkers of exposure to nicotine and selected toxicants (tobacco-specific nitrosamine NNK [NNAL], lead, cadmium, naphthalene [2-naphthol], pyrene [1-hydroxypyrene], acrylonitrile [CYMA], acrolein [CEMA], and acrylamide [AAMA]). Subsets of dual users were compared on demographic, behavioral, and biomarker measures to exclusive cigarette smokers (n = 2411) and exclusive e-cigarette users (n = 247). RESULTS: Most dual users were predominant cigarette smokers (70%), followed by daily dual users (13%), non-daily concurrent dual users (10%), and predominant vapers (7%). Dual users who smoked daily showed significantly higher biomarker concentrations compared with those who did not smoke daily. Patterns of e-cigarette use had little effect on toxicant exposure. Dual users with high toxicant exposure were generally older, female, and smoked more cigarettes per day. Dual users who had low levels of biomarkers of exposure were generally younger, male, and smoked non-daily. CONCLUSIONS: In 2013-2014, most dual users smoked cigarettes daily and used e-cigarettes occasionally. Cigarette smoking appears to be the primary driver of toxicant exposure among dual users, with little-to-no effect of e-cigarette use on biomarker levels. Results reinforce the need for dual users to stop smoking tobacco cigarettes to reduce toxicant exposure. IMPLICATIONS: With considerable dual use of tobacco cigarettes and e-cigarettes in the United States, it is important to understand differences in toxicant exposure among subsets of dual users, and how these differences align with user demographics. Findings suggest most dual users smoke daily and use e-cigarettes intermittently. Low exposure to toxicants was most common among younger users, males, and intermittent smokers; high exposure to toxicants was most common among older users, females, and heavier cigarette smokers. Results underscore the heterogeneity occurring within dual users, and the need to quit smoking cigarettes completely in order to reduce toxicant exposure.

Tobacco-Specific Nitrosamines (NNAL, NNN, NAT, and NAB) Exposures in the US Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study Wave 1 (2013-2014).

INTRODUCTION: The tobacco-specific nitrosamines (TSNAs) are an important group of carcinogens found in tobacco and tobacco smoke. To describe and characterize the levels of TSNAs in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study Wave 1 (2013-2014), we present four biomarkers of TSNA exposure: N'-nitrosonornicotine, N'-nitrosoanabasine, N'-nitrosoanatabine, and 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol (NNAL) which is the primary urinary metabolite of 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone. METHODS: We measured total TSNAs in 11 522 adults who provided urine using automated solid-phase extraction coupled to isotope dilution liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. After exclusions in this current analysis, we selected 11 004 NNAL results, 10 753 N'-nitrosonornicotine results, 10 919 N'-nitrosoanatabine results, and 10 996 N'-nitrosoanabasine results for data analysis. Geometric means and correlations were calculated using SAS and SUDAAN. RESULTS: TSNA concentrations were associated with choice of tobacco product and frequency of use. Among established, every day, exclusive tobacco product users, the geometric mean urinary NNAL concentration was highest for smokeless tobacco users (993.3; 95% confidence interval [CI: 839.2, 1147.3] ng/g creatinine), followed by all types of combustible tobacco product users (285.4; 95% CI: [267.9, 303.0] ng/g creatinine), poly tobacco users (278.6; 95% CI: [254.9, 302.2] ng/g creatinine), and e-cigarette product users (6.3; 95% CI: [4.7, 7.9] ng/g creatinine). TSNA concentrations were higher in every day users than in intermittent users for all the tobacco product groups. Among single product users, exposure to TSNAs differed by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and education. Urinary TSNAs and nicotine metabolite biomarkers were also highly correlated. CONCLUSIONS: We have provided PATH Study estimates of TSNA exposure among US adult users of a variety of tobacco products. These data can inform future tobacco product and human exposure evaluations and related regulatory activities.

Tobacco-Product Use by Adults and Youths in the United States in 2013 and 2014.

BACKGROUND: Noncigarette tobacco products are evolving rapidly, with increasing popularity in the United States. METHODS: We present prevalence estimates for 12 types of tobacco products, using data from 45,971 adult and youth participants (≥12 years of age) from Wave 1 (September 2013 through December 2014) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a large, nationally representative, longitudinal study of tobacco use and health in the United States. Participants were asked about their use of cigarettes, e-cigarettes, traditional cigars, cigarillos, filtered cigars, pipe tobacco, hookah, snus pouches, other smokeless tobacco, dissolvable tobacco, bidis, and kreteks. Estimates of the prevalence of use for each product were determined according to use category (e.g., current use or use in the previous 30 days) and demographic subgroup, and the prevalence of multiple-product use was explored. RESULTS: More than a quarter (27.6%) of adults were current users of at least one type of tobacco product in 2013 and 2014, although the prevalence varied depending on use category. A total of 8.9% of youths had used a tobacco product in the previous 30 days; 1.6% of youths were daily users. Approximately 40% of tobacco users, adults and youths alike, used multiple tobacco products; cigarettes plus e-cigarettes was the most common combination. Young adults (18 to 24 years of age), male adults and youths, members of racial minorities, and members of sexual minorities generally had higher use of tobacco than their counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: During this study, 28% of U.S. adults were current users of tobacco, and 9% of youths had used tobacco in the previous 30 days. Use of multiple products was common among tobacco users. These findings will serve as baseline data to examine between-person differences and within-person changes over time in the use of tobacco products. (Funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse and the Food and Drug Administration.).

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco cigarette use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: Cigarettes are the most harmful and most prevalent tobacco product in the USA. This study examines cross-sectional prevalence and longitudinal pathways of cigarette use among US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years) and adults 25+ (25 years and older). DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US adults and youth. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, N=11 046; young adults, N=6478; adults 25+, N=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: Among Wave 1 (W1) any past 30-day (P30D) cigarette users, more than 60%, persistently used cigarettes across three waves in all age groups. Exclusive cigarette use was more common among adult 25+ W1 P30D cigarette users (62.6%), while cigarette polytobacco use was more common among youth (57.1%) and young adults (65.2%). Persistent exclusive cigarette use was the most common pathway among adults 25+ and young adults; transitioning from exclusive cigarette use to cigarette polytobacco use was most common among youth W1 exclusive cigarette users. For W1 youth and young adult cigarette polytobacco users, the most common pattern of use was persistent cigarette polytobacco use. CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette use remains persistent across time, regardless of age, with most W1 P30D smokers continuing to smoke at all three waves. Policy efforts need to continue focusing on cigarettes, in addition to products such as electronic nicotine delivery systems that are becoming more prevalent.

Longitudinal transitions of exclusive and polytobacco electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS; including e-cigarettes) are rapidly evolving in the US marketplace. This study reports cross-sectional prevalence and longitudinal pathways of ENDS use across 3 years, among US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years) and adults 25+ (25 years and older). DESIGN: Data were from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth and adults. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: Weighted cross-sectional ever use of ENDS increased at each wave. Across all three waves, young adults had the highest percentages of past 12-month, past 30-day (P30D) and daily P30D ENDS use compared with youth and adults 25+. Only about a quarter of users had persistent P30D ENDS use at each wave. Most ENDS users were polytobacco users. Exclusive Wave 1 ENDS users had a higher proportion of subsequent discontinued any tobacco use compared with polytobacco ENDS users who also used cigarettes. CONCLUSIONS: ENDS use is most common among young adults compared with youth and adults 25+. However, continued use of ENDS over 2 years is not common for any age group. Health education efforts to reduce the appeal and availability of ENDS products might focus on reducing ENDS experimentation, and on reaching the smaller subgroups of daily ENDS users to better understand their reasons for use.

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco hookah use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to examine cross-sectional rates of use and longitudinal pathways of hookah use among US youth (ages 12-17), young adults (ages 18-24), and adults 25+ (ages 25 and older). DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US adults and youth. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: Young adults had higher ever, past 12-month (P12M) and past 30-day cross-sectional prevalence of hookah use at each wave than youth or adults 25+. The majority of Wave 1 (W1) hookah users were P12M users of other tobacco products (youth: 73.9%, young adults: 80.5%, adults 25+: 83.2%). Most youth and adult W1 P12M hookah users discontinued use in Wave 2 or Wave 3 (youth: 58.0%, young adults: 47.5%, adults 25+: 63.4%). Most W1 P12M hookah polytobacco users used cigarettes (youth: 49.4%, young adults: 59.4%, adults 25+: 63.2%) and had lower rates of quitting all tobacco than exclusive hookah users or hookah polytobacco users who did not use cigarettes. CONCLUSIONS: Hookah use is more common among young adults than among youth or adults 25+. Discontinuing hookah use is the most common pathway among exclusive or polytobacco hookah users. Understanding longitudinal transitions in hookah use is important in understanding behavioural outcomes at the population level.

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco cigar use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to examine the cross-sectional prevalence of use and 3-year longitudinal pathways of cigar use in US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years), and adults 25+ (25 years or older). DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth and adults. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: Weighted cross-sectional prevalence of past 30-day (P30D) use was stable for adults 25+ (~6%), but decreased in youth (Wave 1 (W1) to Wave 3 (W3)=2.5% to 1.2%) and young adults (W1 to W3=15.7% to 14.0%). Among W1 P30D cigar users, over 50% discontinued cigar use (irrespective of other tobacco use) by Wave 2 (W2) or W3. Across age groups, over 70% of W1 P30D cigar users also indicated P30D use of another tobacco product, predominantly cigar polytobacco use with cigarettes. Discontinuing all tobacco use by W2 or W3 was greater in adult exclusive P30D cigar users compared with polytobacco cigar users. CONCLUSIONS: Although the majority of P30D cigar users discontinued use by W3, adult polytobacco users of cigars were less likely to discontinue all tobacco use than were exclusive cigar users. Tracking patterns of cigar use will allow further assessment of the population health impact of cigars.

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco smokeless use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: Use of smokeless tobacco (SLT) with other tobacco products is growing, yet gaps in understanding transitions among SLT and other product use remain. The aim of this study is to examine cross-sectional prevalence and longitudinal pathways of SLT use among US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years) and adults 25+ (25 years and older). DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth and adults. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: Young adults had the highest current SLT use compared with other age groups. Among Wave 1 (W1) past 30-day youth and young adult SLT users, most were SLT and cigarette polytobacco users compared with adults 25+, who more often used SLT exclusively. Among W1 exclusive SLT users, persistent exclusive use across all three waves was more common among adults 25+, while transitioning from exclusive SLT use to SLT polytobacco use at Wave 2 or Wave 3 was more common among youth and young adults. Among W1 SLT and cigarette polytobacco users, a common pathway was discontinuing SLT use but continuing other tobacco use. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed distinct longitudinal transitions among exclusive and SLT polytobacco users. Deeper understanding of these critical product transitions will allow for further assessment of population health impact of these products.

Initiation of any tobacco and five tobacco products across 3 years among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: This study reports weighted cross-sectional prevalence of never use of tobacco, and longitudinal past 12-month (P12M), past 30-day (P30D) and frequent P30D any tobacco or specific tobacco product initiation across three 1-year waves. Longitudinal three-wave pathways are examined to outline pathways of exclusive and polytobacco initiation, as well as pathways of new initiators of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) or cigarettes. DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth and adults. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, N = 11 046; young adults, N = 6478; adults 25+, N = 17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: Across the three age groups, weighted cross-sectional analyses revealed never any tobacco use decreased each year from 2013 to 2016, reflecting overall increases in tobacco initiation in the population during this time. Compared with cigarettes, cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco, ENDS had the highest proportion of P12M initiation from Wave 1 to Wave 3 (W3) for each age group. Among youth Wave 2 P30D initiators of exclusive ENDS or cigarettes, the most common W3 outcome was not using any tobacco (ENDS: 59.0% (95% CI 48.4 to 68.8); cigarettes: 40.3% (95% CI 28.7 to 53.1)). CONCLUSIONS: Initiation rates of ENDS among youth and young adults have increased the number of ever tobacco users in the US prevention strategies across the spectrum of tobacco products which can address youth initiation of tobacco products.

Correlates of tobacco product cessation among youth and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: To report on demographic and tobacco use correlates of cessation behaviours across tobacco products (cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco) among the US population. DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth (ages 12-17) and adults (ages 18+) . Past 30-day (P30D) tobacco users at Wave 1 (W1) or Wave 2 (W2) were included (n=1374 youth; n=14 389 adults). Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between demographic and tobacco use characteristics at baseline, with cessation behaviours at follow-up (discontinuing use, attempting to quit, quitting), over two 1-year periods (W1-W2, W2-Wave 3). RESULTS: Among adult users of each type of tobacco product, frequency of use was negatively associated with discontinuing use. Among adult cigarette smokers, non-Hispanic white smokers, those with lower educational attainment and those with lower household income were less likely to discontinue cigarette use; ENDS use was positively associated with making quit attempts but was not associated with cigarette quitting among attempters; smokeless tobacco use was positively associated with quitting among attempters; tobacco dependence was negatively associated with quitting among attempters. Among youth cigarette smokers, tobacco dependence was negatively associated with making quit attempts. DISCUSSION: Demographic correlates of tobacco cessation behaviours underscore tobacco use disparities in the USA. Use of ENDS and use of smokeless tobacco products are positively associated with some adult cigarette cessation behaviours.

Correlates of tobacco product initiation among youth and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: To report on demographic and tobacco product use correlates of tobacco product initiation (cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco) among the US population. DESIGN: Data were from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth (aged 12-17 years) and adults (aged 18+ years). Never users of at least one type of tobacco product at Wave 1 (W1, 2013/14) or Wave 2 (W2, 2014/15) were included (n=12 987 youth; n=25 116 adults). Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between demographic and tobacco product use characteristics at baseline, and tobacco product initiation at follow-up (ever, past 30 day (P30D), frequent (use on 20 or more of thepast 30 days)) over two 1-year periods (W1-W2 and W2-Wave 3). RESULTS: Youth aged 15-17 years were more likely than youth aged 12-14 years and adults aged 18-24 years were more likely than older adults to initiate P30D tobacco use across products; non-heterosexuals were more likely than heterosexuals to initiate P30D cigarette and ENDS use. Older adults were more likely than young adults, and males were more likely than females, to be frequent users of ENDS on initiation. Ever use of another tobacco product predicted P30D initiation of each tobacco product. DISCUSSION: Other tobacco product use and age predict P30D tobacco initiation across products whereas associations with other demographic characteristics vary by product. Continued contemporary evaluation of initiation rates within the changing tobacco product marketplace is important.

Correlates of tobacco product reuptake and relapse among youth and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: This study examines sociodemographic and tobacco use correlates of reuptake and relapse to tobacco use across a variety of tobacco products (cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems, cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco) among the US population. DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth (ages 12-17) and adults (ages 18+). Reuptake (past 30-day use among previous tobacco users) and relapse (current use among former established users; adults only) were examined among previous users of at least one type of tobacco product at Wave 1 (W1) or Wave 2 (W2) (n=19 120 adults, n=3039 youth). Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between demographic and tobacco use characteristics at baseline, with reuptake/relapse at follow-up, over two 1-year periods (W1-W2 and W2-Wave 3). RESULTS: Any tobacco product reuptake occurred in 7.8% of adult previous users and 30.3% of youth previous users. Correlates of any tobacco reuptake included being male, non-Hispanic black and bisexual in adults, but race and sexual orientation were not consistent findings in youth. Among recent former users, relapse rates were greater (32.9%). Shorter time since last use and greater levels of tobacco dependence showed the strongest association with any tobacco relapse. DISCUSSION: Continued clinical and public health efforts to provide adults with tools to cope with tobacco dependence symptoms, especially within the first year or two after quitting, could help prevent relapse.

Overview of tobacco use transitions for population health.

The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act provided the US Food and Drug Administration authority to regulate tobacco products using a population health standard. Models have been developed to estimate the population health impacts of tobacco initiation, cessation and relapse transitions. Models should be informed by high-quality, longitudinal data to estimate these constructs. Simulation studies have generated data to predict the impact of various tobacco control interventions, including the influence of regulations on tobacco use behaviours and health. The purpose of this paper is to provide a high-level conceptual overview for understanding tobacco transition behaviours and correlates of these behaviours using data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a US nationally representative longitudinal tobacco study of about 46 000 persons aged 12+ years. The papers that follow in this journal issue build and expand on this conceptual overview using data from the first three waves of the PATH Study. These papers describe use patterns of different tobacco products and their correlates, and can serve as foundations for more in-depth papers that will help the research community better understand the population health impacts and drivers of different tobacco use patterns.