Economic evaluation of the recent French tobacco control policy: a model-based approach.

BACKGROUND: One in four French adults smoked daily in 2021, compared with one in six in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. To strengthen its tobacco control policy, in 2016, France has started implementing a policy package that includes a 3-year gradual price increase, plain packaging, an annual social marketing campaign promoting cessation and the reimbursement of nicotine replacement products. This study aims to evaluate the health and economic impact of this policy package. METHODS: The long-term policy impact on disease cases, healthcare expenditure and gains in labour participation and productivity was evaluated by using the OECD microsimulation model for Strategic Public Health Planning for Non-Communicable Diseases. The model was fed with historical and projected trends on tobacco smoking prevalence as produced by the policy package. RESULTS: Over the period 2023-2050, the policy package is estimated to avoid about 4.03 million (2.09-11.84 million) cases of chronic diseases, save €578 million (365-1848 million) per year in health expenditure and increase employment and workforce productivity by the equivalent to 19 800 (9100-59 900) additional full-time workers per year, compared with a scenario in which the intervention package is not implemented. The intervention cost is estimated at about €148 million per year. For each euro invested in the policy package, €4 will be returned in long-term savings in healthcare expenditure. CONCLUSIONS: The tobacco control policy package implemented by France, targeting smoking initiation and promoting tobacco cessation is an effective intervention with an excellent return on investment.

Cardiometabolic risk management: insights from a European Society of Cardiology Cardiovascular Round Table.

Metabolic comorbidities are common in patients with cardiorenal disease; they can cause atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), speed progression, and adversely affect prognosis. Common comorbidities are Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), obesity/overweight, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and chronic liver disease. The cardiovascular system, kidneys, and liver are linked to many of the same risk factors (e.g. dyslipidaemia, hypertension, tobacco use, diabetes, and central/truncal obesity), and shared metabolic and functional abnormalities lead to damage throughout these organs via overlapping pathophysiological pathways. The COVID-19 pandemic has further complicated the management of cardiometabolic diseases. Obesity, T2DM, CKD, and liver disease are associated with increased risk of poor outcomes of COVID-19 infection, and conversely, COVID-19 can lead to worsening of pre-existing ASCVD. The high rates of these comorbidities highlight the need to improve recognition and treatment of ASCVD in patients with obesity, insulin resistance or T2DM, chronic liver diseases, and CKD and equally, to improve recognition and treatment of these diseases in patients with ASCVD. Strategies to prevent and manage cardiometabolic diseases include lifestyle modification, pharmacotherapy, and surgery. There is a need for more programmes at the societal level to encourage a healthy diet and physical activity. Many pharmacotherapies offer mechanism-based approaches that can target multiple pathophysiological pathways across diseases. These include sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, selective mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, and combined glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide/glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist. Non-surgical and surgical weight loss strategies can improve cardiometabolic disorders in individuals living with obesity. New biomarkers under investigation may help in the early identification of individuals at risk and reveal new treatment targets.

Resistance proportions for eight priority antibiotic-bacterium combinations in OECD, EU/EEA and G20 countries 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance is widely considered an urgent global health issue due to associated mortality and disability, societal and healthcare costs.AimTo estimate the past, current and projected future proportion of infections resistant to treatment for eight priority antibiotic-bacterium combinations from 2000 to 2030 for 52 countries.MethodsWe collated data from a variety of sources including ResistanceMap and World Bank. Feature selection algorithms and multiple imputation were used to produce a complete historical dataset. Forecasts were derived from an ensemble of three models: exponential smoothing, linear regression and random forest. The latter two were informed by projections of antibiotic consumption, out-of-pocket medical spending, populations aged 64 years and older and under 15 years and real gross domestic product. We incorporated three types of uncertainty, producing 150 estimates for each country-antibiotic-bacterium-year.ResultsAverage resistance proportions across antibiotic-bacterium combinations could grow moderately from 17% to 18% within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD; growth in 64% of uncertainty sets), from 18% to 19% in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA; growth in 87% of uncertainty sets) and from 29% to 31% in Group of Twenty (G20) countries (growth in 62% of uncertainty sets) between 2015 and 2030. There is broad heterogeneity in levels and rates of change across countries and antibiotic-bacterium combinations from 2000 to 2030.ConclusionIf current trends continue, resistance proportions are projected to marginally increase in the coming years. The estimates indicate there is significant heterogeneity in resistance proportions across countries and antibiotic-bacterium combinations.

Identifying patterns of unhealthy diet and physical activity in four countries of the Americas: a latent class analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine clusters of individuals who present similar health behaviors in terms of diet, physical activity, and sedentarism, in four countries of the Americas: Brazil (2013), Chile (2009), Mexico (2012), and the United States of America (2013). This makes it possible to determine which of these behaviors occur simultaneously, as well as the demographic and sociodemographic characteristics associated with each cluster. METHODS: The individual-level data analyzed were drawn from national health interviews and health examination surveys in Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and the United States, for different time periods. Using international physical activity guidelines and national dietary guidelines, the health behaviors of each individual were assessed. A latent class analysis was conducted to classify individuals into clusters based on these behaviors, and was followed by multinomial regressions to determine the characteristics of those in each class. RESULTS: Overall, most individuals belonged to the classes characterized by average or unhealthy diets but sufficient amounts of physical activity. However, large differences exist across countries and population groups. Men with higher socioeconomic characteristics were globally more likely to belong to the least healthy class in each country. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this analysis support the implementation of more refined policy actions to target specific unhealthy behaviors in different population groups, defined by gender, age group, socioeconomic status, and, to some extent, place of residence. The at-risk populations identified through this paper are those that should be targeted by upcoming interventions.

Estimating the return on investment of selected infection prevention and control interventions in healthcare settings for preparing against novel respiratory viruses: modelling the experience from SARS-CoV-2 among health workers.

Background: Insufficient infection prevention and control (IPC) practices in healthcare settings increase the SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among health workers. This study aimed to examine the level of preparedness for future outbreaks. Methods: We modelled the experience from the COVID-19 pandemic and assessed the return on investment on a global scale of three IPC interventions to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infections among health workers: enhancing hand hygiene; increasing access to personal protective equipment (PPE); and combining PPE, with a scale-up of IPC training and education (PPE+). Our analysis covered seven geographic regions, representing a combination of World Health Organization (WHO) regions and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Across all regions, we focused on the first 180 days of the pandemic in 2020 between January 1st and June 30th. We used an extended version of a susceptible-infectious-recovered compartmental model to measure the level of IPC preparedness. Data were sourced from the WHO COVID-19 Detailed Surveillance Database. Findings: In all regions, the PPE + intervention would have averted the highest number of new SARS-CoV-2 infections compared to the other two interventions, ranging from 6562 (95% CI 4873-8779) to 38,170 (95% CI 33,853-41,901) new infections per 100,000 health workers in OECD countries and in the South-East Asia region, respectively. Countries in the South-East Asia region and non-OECD countries in the Western Pacific region were poised to achieve the highest level of savings by scaling up the PPE + intervention. Interpretation: Our results not only support efforts to make an economic case for continuing investments in IPC interventions to halt the COVID-19 pandemic and protect health workers, but could also contribute to efforts to improve preparedness for future outbreaks. Funding: This work was funded by WHO, with support by the German Federal Ministry of Health for the WHOResearch and Development Blueprint for COVID-19.

Establishing an EU-wide front-of-pack nutrition label: Review of options and model-based evaluation.

This paper reviews the effectiveness of four types of front-of-pack nutrition labels (FoPLs) in influencing calorie purchases. The four FoPL types are poised for unified implementation across European countries. Further, this study extends its analysis to evaluate the impacts of the voluntary adoption of these FoPLs within 27 EU nations. Nutri-Score displays higher potential for yielding positive health and economic outcomes, compared with other FoPLs. Across EU countries, Nutri-Score is projected to avert nearly two million cases of non-communicable diseases, in total, between 2023 and 2050. Keyhole demonstrates effects of a similar magnitude but with no statistical significance. Nutri-Repere shows smaller impacts, while Nutri-Couleurs has non-significant effects. Nutri-Score is projected to significantly lower annual healthcare spending by 0.05%, whereas the other labels have negligible impacts. By reducing cases of disease, FoPLs have the potential to improve employment and work productivity. Nutri-Score surpasses the other labels with an estimated annual gain of 10.6 full-time equivalent workers per 100,000 individuals of working age across EU countries. In all, mandatory implementation of any of the four labels would lead to greater effects than those obtained with a voluntary implementation, providing evidence to inform legislation proposal for an EU-wide nutrition labelling system.

Priority actions for the non-communicable disease crisis.

The UN High-Level Meeting on Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in September, 2011, is an unprecedented opportunity to create a sustained global movement against premature death and preventable morbidity and disability from NCDs, mainly heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease. The increasing global crisis in NCDs is a barrier to development goals including poverty reduction, health equity, economic stability, and human security. The Lancet NCD Action Group and the NCD Alliance propose five overarching priority actions for the response to the crisis--leadership, prevention, treatment, international cooperation, and monitoring and accountability--and the delivery of five priority interventions--tobacco control, salt reduction, improved diets and physical activity, reduction in hazardous alcohol intake, and essential drugs and technologies. The priority interventions were chosen for their health effects, cost-effectiveness, low costs of implementation, and political and financial feasibility. The most urgent and immediate priority is tobacco control. We propose as a goal for 2040, a world essentially free from tobacco where less than 5% of people use tobacco. Implementation of the priority interventions, at an estimated global commitment of about US$9 billion per year, will bring enormous benefits to social and economic development and to the health sector. If widely adopted, these interventions will achieve the global goal of reducing NCD death rates by 2% per year, averting tens of millions of premature deaths in this decade.

Food safety policies and their effectiveness to prevent foodborne diseases in catering establishments: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Despite being largely preventable, foodborne diseases continue to be of major concern worldwide. Research has shown that interventions relying on food handling training programs and standard food safety practices have a direct impact on food handler's knowledge and attitudes. However, to date, evidence on the effectiveness of policies in reducing microbial count in food is sparse and inconclusive. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to summarize the evidence on the potential of food safety policies in catering establishments as a means to prevent foodborne diseases. A search for relevant publications was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, CENTRAL, ProQuest, CINAHL and ERIC databases. Retrieved studies were summarised in terms of context, population, outcome, methodology, risk of bias and intervention type. Eight studies were included in the qualitative analysis and the meta-analysis. Food safety interventions were associated with a statistically significant microbial reduction of 28.6% (95% CI: -30.6% to -26.7%). Four subgroup analyses were conducted: by type of microorganism screened, by sample origin, by type of food establishment, and by sample collection time post-intervention. Microbial reductions were consistent across each of the subgroups. Findings suggest that policies such as programs based on the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) could be effective strategies to prevent foodborne diseases from occurring in foodservice establishments at the end of the food supply chain. However, the underlying evidence suffers from risk of bias and more randomized controlled trials and controlled before-and-after studies are needed in this field.

A comparative assessment of action plans on antimicrobial resistance from OECD and G20 countries using natural language processing.

Following the launch of the Global Action Plan on antimicrobial resistance (AMR-GAP) in 2015, most OECD and G20 countries developed their own national action plans (AMR-NAPs). This is the first paper that deploys natural language processing (NLP) techniques to systematically measure and compare the extent to which AMR-NAPs from 21 OECD and G20 countries align with the AMR-GAP in terms of the strategic objectives and interventions. We quantify the extent of alignment based on two NLP metrics: term-frequency (TF) and term-frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF). Quantifying TF allows us to compare the relative prominence of strategic objectives and interventions, whereas quantifying TF-IDF enables us to identify interventions that occur more frequently in each AMR-NAP. Similar to the AMR-GAP, in our sample, terms associated with optimizing antimicrobial use in human and animal health have the highest frequency (TF = 0. 287), whereas terms linked to raising AMR awareness and education have the lowest frequency (TF = 0.066). Substantial cross-country variation exists in the distribution of interventions that are distinctly frequent in each AMR-NAP. We also report new evidence on the selected policy design and monitoring and evaluation features of these documents. Our results suggest a high degree of congruence between the AMR-GAP and AMR-NAPs, with notable diversity in the spate of interventions that OECD and G20 countries discuss in their action plans.

Tackling of unhealthy diets, physical inactivity, and obesity: health effects and cost-effectiveness.

The obesity epidemic is spreading to low-income and middle-income countries as a result of new dietary habits and sedentary ways of life, fuelling chronic diseases and premature mortality. In this report we present an assessment of public health strategies designed to tackle behavioural risk factors for chronic diseases that are closely linked with obesity, including aspects of diet and physical inactivity, in Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa. England was included for comparative purposes. Several population-based prevention policies can be expected to generate substantial health gains while entirely or largely paying for themselves through future reductions of health-care expenditures. These strategies include health information and communication strategies that improve population awareness about the benefits of healthy eating and physical activity; fiscal measures that increase the price of unhealthy food content or reduce the cost of healthy foods rich in fibre; and regulatory measures that improve nutritional information or restrict the marketing of unhealthy foods to children. A package of measures for the prevention of chronic diseases would deliver substantial health gains, with a very favourable cost-effectiveness profile.

Impact of vaccination on carriage of and infection by antibiotic-resistant bacteria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to quantify the impact of vaccination on the incidence and prevalence of nonsusceptible infections and investigates the impact of vaccination programs on serotype replacement. We searched a comprehensive set of databases. Identified studies were assessed using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) approach and resulting evidence was analyzed using random-effect meta-analyses. Nineteen studies on pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) met our inclusion criteria. PCV decreases the incidence of nonsusceptible pneumococcal infections (PIs) by 56.91% (95% confidence interval [CI], -50.90% to -62.91%) and the probability of carriage of nonsusceptible pneumococcal bacteria by 28.10% (95% CI, -13.25% to -42.95%). The effect of PCV on PIs becomes higher when only serotypes specifically targeted by the vaccine are taken into account (-80.98%; 95% CI, -70.34% to -91.52%), while it becomes lower when all the PIs, including both susceptible and nonsusceptible PIs, are considered (-48.30%; 95% CI, -31.55% to -65.08%). The effect of PCV is found greater in populations with high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus and for PCV covering a higher number of serotypes. Findings from this study suggest that vaccination programs may be an effective tool to prevent the spread of PIs and may play a significant role in tackling antimicrobial resistance.

Financial strategies targeting healthcare providers to promote the prudent use of antibiotics: a systematic review of the evidence.

Improving prudent use of antibiotics is one way to limit the spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The objective of this systematic review was to assess the effects of financial strategies targeting healthcare providers on the prudent use of antibiotics. A systematic review of the literature was conducted searching PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases, and the grey literature. Search terms related to antibacterial agents, drug resistance, financial strategies, and healthcare providers and/or prescribers. Twenty-two articles were included in the review, reporting on capitation and salary reimbursement, cost containment interventions, pay-for-performance initiatives, penalties, and a one-off bonus payment. There was substantial variation in the reported outcomes describing prescribing behaviours, including proportion of patients prescribed antibiotics, antibiotic prescriptions per patient, and number of cases treated with recommended antibiotic therapy. All financial strategies were associated with improvements in the appropriate prescription of antibiotics in the short-term, although the magnitude of observed effects varied across financial strategies. Financial penalties were associated with the greatest decreases in inappropriate antibiotic prescriptions, followed by capitation models and pay-for-performance schemes that paid bonuses upon achievement of performance targets. However, the risk of bias across studies must be noted. Findings point to the viability of financial strategies to promote the prudent use of antibiotics. Measuring the downstream impact of prescriber behaviour changes is key to estimating the true value of such interventions to tackle AMR. Research efforts should continue to build the evidence on causal mechanisms driving provider prescribing patterns for antibiotics and the long-term impact on antibiotic prescriptions.

Tackling the cancer burden: the economic impact of primary prevention policies.

Cancer is a noncommunicable disease (NCD) with increasing incidence and therefore constitutes a major public health issue. To reduce the health and economic burden of cancer, policy-makers across the world have implemented a range of preventative interventions targeting risk factors with a known link to the disease. In this article, we examine the impact of six primary prevention interventions - related to physical inactivity, unhealthy diet or harmful alcohol use - on cancer-related health outcomes and healthcare expenditure. Here, we used the OECD Strategic Public Health Planning for NCDs (SPHeP-NCDs) model to quantify outcomes and costs for each intervention for years 2020-2050 across 37 countries. Results from the model indicate that all interventions could lead to a reduction in the number of new cancer cases, in particular those targeting harmful alcohol consumption. Introducing an alcohol tax, for instance, is estimated to reduce related cancer cases by 5619 a year or 174 193 by 2050. A breakdown of results by type of cancer revealed interventions had the largest impact on colorectal cancer with, on average, 41 140 cases avoided per intervention by 2050. In proportional terms, interventions had the greatest impact on new oesophageal and liver cancers. Findings from this article are designed to assist decision-makers efficiently allocate limited resources to meet public health objectives.

Assessing the future medical cost burden for the European health systems under alternative exposure-to-risks scenarios.

BACKGROUND: Ageing populations and rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increasingly contribute to the growing cost burden facing European healthcare systems. Few studies have attempted to quantify the future magnitude of this burden at the European level, and none of them consider the impact of potential changes in risk factor trajectories on future health expenditures. METHODS: The new microsimulation model forecasts the impact of behavioural and metabolic risk factors on NCDs, longevity and direct healthcare costs, and shows how changes in epidemiological trends can modify those impacts. Economic burden of NCDs is modelled under three scenarios based on assumed future risk factors trends: business as usual (BAU); best case and worst case predictions (BCP and WCP). FINDINGS: The direct costs of NCDs in the EU 27 countries and the UK (in constant 2014 prices) will grow under all scenarios. Between 2014 and 2050, the overall healthcare spending is expected to increase by 0.8% annually under BAU. In the all the countries, 605 billion Euros can be saved by 2050 if BCP is realized compared to the BAU, while excess spending under the WCP is forecast to be around 350 billion. Interpretation: Although the savings realised under the BCP can be substantial, population ageing is a stronger driver of rising total healthcare expenditures in Europe compared to scenario-based changes in risk factor prevalence.

How will the main risk factors contribute to the burden of non-communicable diseases under different scenarios by 2050? A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The future burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) depends on numerous factors such as population ageing, evolution of societal trends, behavioural and physiological risk factors of individuals (e.g. smoking, alcohol use, obesity, physical inactivity, and hypertension). This study aims to assess the burden of NCDs in Europe by 2050 under alternative scenarios. METHODS: This study combines qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques to examine how population health in Europe may evolve from 2015 to 2050, taking into account future societal trends. Four scenarios were developed (one business-as-usual scenario, two response scenarios and one pessimistic scenario) and assessed against 'best' and 'worst'-case scenarios. This study provides quantitative estimates of both diseases and mortality outcomes, using a microsimulation model incorporating international survey data. FINDINGS: Each scenario is associated with a different risk factor prevalence rate across Europe during the period 2015-2050. The prevalence and incidence of NCDs consistently increase during the analysed time period, mainly driven by population ageing. In more optimistic scenarios, diseases will appear in later ages, while in the pessimistic scenarios, NCDs will impair working-age people. Life expectancy is expected to grow in all scenarios, but with differences by up to 4 years across scenarios and population groups. Premature mortality from NCDs will be reduced in more optimistic scenarios but stagnate in the worst-case scenario. INTERPRETATION: Population ageing will have a greater impact on the spread of NCDs by 2050 compared to risk factors. Nevertheless, risk factors, which are influenced by living environments, are an important factor for determining future life expectancy in Europe.

Physical Activity Levels and New Public Transit: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

CONTEXT: Physical inactivity is a public health concern as it contributes to the rising burden of noncommunicable diseases. Introducing new public transportation options, such as extending or building new light rail or bus rapid transit stations, could encourage commuters to walk to and from public transit stops, thus increasing their physical activity levels. Despite previous research generally finding positive associations between public transit usage and physical activity levels, few have summarized the association between introducing new public transportation options and different intensities of physical activity. This study aimed to systematically review the current evidence and perform a meta-analysis on this association. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: Ten databases were systematically searched for studies published between 1997 and 2017. To ensure comparability, study outcomes were converted to MET hours/week. A random effects meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis were then conducted. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Nine studies were identified to be included in the systematic review, of which five were eligible for meta-analysis. Pooled results suggest that building new public transit options is associated with a statistically significant increase in light to moderate physical activity levels by 1.76 MET hours/week (95% CI=0.19, 3.32, p=0.03). This is equivalent to increasing walking and other light to moderate physical activity by about 30 minutes per week, relative to baseline. No significant effect was found for the moderate to vigorous physical activity outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Results show new public transit options can substantially contribute to increasing low- to moderate-intensity exercise levels, which has the potential to improve health on a population scale.

The short-term effect of BMI, alcohol use, and related chronic conditions on labour market outcomes: A time-lag panel analysis utilizing European SHARE dataset.

INTRODUCTION: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) like cancer, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes have spread at a remarkable pace in European countries over the past decades. Overweight/obesity and alcohol use are two leading risk factors contributing to both economic and epidemiological burden associated with NCDs. In OECD countries, the impact of indirect costs of obesity varies between 0.20% and 1.21% of GDP. Indirect costs of alcohol use range from 0.19% (Portugal) to 1.6% (Estonia) of GDP. AIM: To assess the longitudinal impact of alcohol use and high body-mass index (BMI) on labour market outcomes in the European region by modeling the direct effect of high BMI and alcohol use, and the effect via associated diseases. METHODS: The impact of BMI, alcohol use, and associated diseases on employment likelihood, intent to retire early, days of absenteeism, and hours of work per week, were modelled via lagged Poisson and Zero-inflated Poisson regressions, adjusting for missingness via inverse probability weighting, as appropriate, using European SHARE data. RESULTS: Controlling for other chronic conditions, being overweight increases employment likelihood among men, but not among women. Obesity decreased female, but not male, employment chances. All chronic conditions linked with high BMI negatively affected employment likelihood, and increased the intention to retire early significantly. Alcohol use positively affects employment likelihood in women at all drinking levels relative to lifetime abstainers, but only in moderate (not heavy) male drinkers. There is super-additionality of impact of NCDs on absenteeism and hours worked, presenting a key economic argument to tackle NCD prevention and compression of morbidity. IMPLICATIONS: NCD prevention is not just important for employment and hours worked, but also for employee morale, especially given increasing retirement age in Europe and globally.

Attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years caused by infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the EU and the European Economic Area in 2015: a population-level modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Infections due to antibiotic-resistant bacteria are threatening modern health care. However, estimating their incidence, complications, and attributable mortality is challenging. We aimed to estimate the burden of infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria of public health concern in countries of the EU and European Economic Area (EEA) in 2015, measured in number of cases, attributable deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). METHODS: We estimated the incidence of infections with 16 antibiotic resistance-bacterium combinations from European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net) 2015 data that was country-corrected for population coverage. We multiplied the number of bloodstream infections (BSIs) by a conversion factor derived from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control point prevalence survey of health-care-associated infections in European acute care hospitals in 2011-12 to estimate the number of non-BSIs. We developed disease outcome models for five types of infection on the basis of systematic reviews of the literature. FINDINGS: From EARS-Net data collected between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2015, we estimated 671 689 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 583 148-763 966) infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria, of which 63·5% (426 277 of 671 689) were associated with health care. These infections accounted for an estimated 33 110 (28 480-38 430) attributable deaths and 874 541 (768 837-989 068) DALYs. The burden for the EU and EEA was highest in infants (aged <1 year) and people aged 65 years or older, had increased since 2007, and was highest in Italy and Greece. INTERPRETATION: Our results present the health burden of five types of infection with antibiotic-resistant bacteria expressed, for the first time, in DALYs. The estimated burden of infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the EU and EEA is substantial compared with that of other infectious diseases, and has increased since 2007. Our burden estimates provide useful information for public health decision-makers prioritising interventions for infectious diseases. FUNDING: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

Health system modelling research: towards a whole-health-system perspective for identifying good value for money investments in health system strengthening.

Global health research has typically focused on single diseases, and most economic evaluation research to date has analysed technical health interventions to identify 'best buys'. New approaches in the conduct of economic evaluations are needed to help policymakers in choosing what may be good value (ie, greater health, distribution of health, or financial risk protection) for money (ie, per budget expenditure) investments for health system strengthening (HSS) that tend to be programmatic. We posit that these economic evaluations of HSS interventions will require developing new analytic models of health systems which recognise the dynamic connections between the different components of the health system, characterise the type and interlinks of the system's delivery platforms; and acknowledge the multiple constraints both within and outside the health sector which limit the system's capacity to efficiently attain its objectives. We describe priority health system modelling research areas to conduct economic evaluation of HSS interventions and ultimately identify good value for money investments in HSS.