Machine learning derived serum creatinine trajectories in acute kidney injury in critically ill patients with sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Current classification for acute kidney injury (AKI) in critically ill patients with sepsis relies only on its severity-measured by maximum creatinine which overlooks inherent complexities and longitudinal evaluation of this heterogenous syndrome. The role of classification of AKI based on early creatinine trajectories is unclear. METHODS: This retrospective study identified patients with Sepsis-3 who developed AKI within 48-h of intensive care unit admission using Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV database. We used latent class mixed modelling to identify early creatinine trajectory-based classes of AKI in critically ill patients with sepsis. Our primary outcome was development of acute kidney disease (AKD). Secondary outcomes were composite of AKD or all-cause in-hospital mortality by day 7, and AKD or all-cause in-hospital mortality by hospital discharge. We used multivariable regression to assess impact of creatinine trajectory-based classification on outcomes, and eICU database for external validation. RESULTS: Among 4197 patients with AKI in critically ill patients with sepsis, we identified eight creatinine trajectory-based classes with distinct characteristics. Compared to the class with transient AKI, the class that showed severe AKI with mild improvement but persistence had highest adjusted risks for developing AKD (OR 5.16; 95% CI 2.87-9.24) and composite 7-day outcome (HR 4.51; 95% CI 2.69-7.56). The class that demonstrated late mild AKI with persistence and worsening had highest risks for developing composite hospital discharge outcome (HR 2.04; 95% CI 1.41-2.94). These associations were similar on external validation. CONCLUSIONS: These 8 classes of AKI in critically ill patients with sepsis, stratified by early creatinine trajectories, were good predictors for key outcomes in patients with AKI in critically ill patients with sepsis independent of their AKI staging.

Major cardiovascular events and subsequent risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy: a CKD Prognosis Consortium study.

AIMS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Less is known about how CVD associates with future risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT). METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 25 903 761 individuals from the CKD Prognosis Consortium with known baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and evaluated the impact of prevalent and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) events as time-varying exposures on KFRT outcomes. Mean age was 53 (standard deviation 17) years and mean eGFR was 89 mL/min/1.73 m2, 15% had diabetes and 8.4% had urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) available (median 13 mg/g); 9.5% had prevalent CHD, 3.2% prior stroke, 3.3% HF, and 4.4% prior AF. During follow-up, there were 269 142 CHD, 311 021 stroke, 712 556 HF, and 605 596 AF incident events and 101 044 (0.4%) patients experienced KFRT. Both prevalent and incident CVD were associated with subsequent KFRT with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9-3.3], 2.0 (1.9-2.1), 4.5 (4.2-4.9), 2.8 (2.7-3.1) after incident CHD, stroke, HF and AF, respectively. HRs were highest in first 3 months post-CVD incidence declining to baseline after 3 years. Incident HF hospitalizations showed the strongest association with KFRT [HR 46 (95% CI: 43-50) within 3 months] after adjustment for other CVD subtype incidence. CONCLUSION: Incident CVD events strongly and independently associate with future KFRT risk, most notably after HF, then CHD, stroke, and AF. Optimal strategies for addressing the dramatic risk of KFRT following CVD events are needed.

Genome-wide polygenic risk score for retinopathy of type 2 diabetes.

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a common consequence in type 2 diabetes (T2D) and a leading cause of blindness in working-age adults. Yet, its genetic predisposition is largely unknown. Here, we examined the polygenic architecture underlying DR by deriving and assessing a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) for DR. We evaluated the PRS in 6079 individuals with T2D of European, Hispanic, African and other ancestries from a large-scale multi-ethnic biobank. Main outcomes were PRS association with DR diagnosis, symptoms and complications, and time to diagnosis, and transferability to non-European ancestries. We observed that PRS was significantly associated with DR. A standard deviation increase in PRS was accompanied by an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.12 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.20; P = 0.001] for DR diagnosis. When stratified by ancestry, PRS was associated with the highest OR in European ancestry (OR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.02-1.41; P = 0.049), followed by African (OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.03-1.28; P = 0.028) and Hispanic ancestries (OR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.00-1.10; P = 0.050). Individuals in the top PRS decile had a 1.8-fold elevated risk for DR versus the bottom decile (P = 0.002). Among individuals without DR diagnosis, the top PRS decile had more DR symptoms than the bottom decile (P = 0.008). The PRS was associated with retinal hemorrhage (OR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.03-2.02; P = 0.03) and earlier DR presentation (10% probability of DR by 4 years in the top PRS decile versus 8 years in the bottom decile). These results establish the significant polygenic underpinnings of DR and indicate the need for more diverse ancestries in biobanks to develop multi-ancestral PRS.

Evaluation of Plasma Biomarkers to Predict Major Adverse Kidney Events in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 are at increased risk for major adverse kidney events (MAKE). We sought to identify plasma biomarkers predictive of MAKE in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: A total of 576 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 between March 2020 and January 2021 across 3 academic medical centers. EXPOSURE: Twenty-six plasma biomarkers of injury, inflammation, and repair from first available blood samples collected during hospitalization. OUTCOME: MAKE, defined as KDIGO stage 3 acute kidney injury (AKI), dialysis-requiring AKI, or mortality up to 60 days. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cox proportional hazards regression to associate biomarker level with MAKE. We additionally applied the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and random forest regression for prediction modeling and estimated model discrimination with time-varying C index. RESULTS: The median length of stay for COVID-19 hospitalization was 9 (IQR, 5-16) days. In total, 95 patients (16%) experienced MAKE. Each 1 SD increase in soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1) and sTNFR2 was significantly associated with an increased risk of MAKE (adjusted HR [AHR], 2.30 [95% CI, 1.86-2.85], and AHR, 2.26 [95% CI, 1.73-2.95], respectively). The C index of sTNFR1 alone was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.78-0.84), and the C index of sTNFR2 was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.84). LASSO and random forest regression modeling using all biomarkers yielded C indexes of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.83-0.89) and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.78-0.91), respectively. LIMITATIONS: No control group of hospitalized patients without COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: We found that sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 are independently associated with MAKE in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and can both also serve as predictors for adverse kidney outcomes. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 are at increased risk for long-term adverse health outcomes, but not all patients suffer long-term kidney dysfunction. Identification of patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk for adverse kidney events may have important implications in terms of nephrology follow-up and patient counseling. In this study, we found that the plasma biomarkers soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1) and sTNFR2 measured in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 were associated with a greater risk of adverse kidney outcomes. Along with clinical variables previously shown to predict adverse kidney events in patients with COVID-19, both sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 are also strong predictors of adverse kidney outcomes.

Machine learning models to predict end-stage kidney disease in chronic kidney disease stage 4.

INTRODUCTION: End-stage kidney disease (ESKD) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Identifying patients with stage 4 CKD (CKD4) at risk of rapid progression to ESKD remains challenging. Accurate prediction of CKD4 progression can improve patient outcomes by improving advanced care planning and optimizing healthcare resource allocation. METHODS: We obtained electronic health record data from patients with CKD4 in a large health system between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2016. We developed and validated four models, including Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression, random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN), to predict ESKD at 3 years. We utilized area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to evaluate model performances and utilized Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values and plots to define feature dependence of the best performance model. RESULTS: We included 3,160 patients with CKD4. ESKD was observed in 538 patients (21%). All approaches had similar AUROCs; ANN yielded the highest AUROC (0.77; 95%CI 0.75 to 0.79) and LASSO regression (0.77; 95%CI 0.75 to 0.79), followed by random forest (0.76; 95% CI 0.74 to 0.79), and XGBoost (0.76; 95% CI 0.74 to 0.78). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated several models for near-term prediction of kidney failure in CKD4. ANN, random forest, and XGBoost demonstrated similar predictive performances. Using this suite of models, interventions can be customized based on risk, and population health and resources appropriately allocated.

Genome-first recall of healthy individuals by polygenic risk score reveals differences in coronary artery calcium.

Genetic risk for coronary artery disease (CAD) is commonly measured with polygenic risk scores (PRS); yet, the relationship of atherosclerotic burden with PRS in healthy individuals not at high clinical risk for CAD (ie, without a high pooled cohort equations [PCE] score) is unknown. Here, we implemented a novel recall-by-PRS strategy to measure coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores prospectively in 53 healthy individuals with extreme high PRS (median [IQR] PRS = 94% [83-98]) and low PRS (median [IQR] PRS = 3.6% [1.2-10]). The high PRS group was associated with a 2.8-fold greater CAC than the low PRS group, adjusted for age, sex, BMI, smoking, and statin use, and had a 6.7-fold greater proportion of individuals with CAC exceeding 300 HU. These findings reveal that extreme PRS tracks with CAD risk even in those without high clinical risk and demonstrate proof of principle for recall-by-PRS approaches that should be assessed prospectively in larger trials.

The promise of artificial intelligence for kidney pathophysiology.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We seek to determine recent advances in kidney pathophysiology that have been enabled or enhanced by artificial intelligence. We describe some of the challenges in the field as well as future directions. RECENT FINDINGS: We first provide an overview of artificial intelligence terminologies and methodologies. We then describe the use of artificial intelligence in kidney diseases to discover risk factors from clinical data for disease progression, annotate whole slide imaging and decipher multiomics data. We delineate key examples of risk stratification and prognostication in acute kidney injury (AKI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). We contextualize these applications in kidney disease oncology, one of the subfields to benefit demonstrably from artificial intelligence using all if these approaches. We conclude by elucidating technical challenges and ethical considerations and briefly considering future directions. SUMMARY: The integration of clinical data, patient derived data, histology and proteomics and genomics can enhance the work of clinicians in providing more accurate diagnoses and elevating understanding of disease progression. Implementation research needs to be performed to translate these algorithms to the clinical setting.

Prevalence and Outcomes Associated with Hyperuricemia in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) can increase catabolism and result in hyperuricemia. Uric acid (UA) potentially causes kidney damage by alteration of renal autoregulation, inhibition of endothelial cell proliferation, cell apoptosis, activation of the pro-inflammatory cascade, and crystal deposition. Hyperuricemia in patients with COVID-19 may contribute to acute kidney injury (AKI) and poor outcomes. METHODS: We included 834 patients with COVID-19 who were >18 years old and hospitalized for >24 h in the Mount Sinai Health System and had at least 1 measurement of serum UA. We examined the association between the first serum UA level and development of acute kidney injury (AKI, defined by KDIGO criteria), major adverse kidney events (MAKE, defined by a composite of all-cause in-hospital mortality or dialysis or 100% increase in serum creatinine from baseline), as well as markers of inflammation and cardiac injury. RESULTS: Among the 834 patients, the median age was 66 years, 42% were women, and the median first serum UA was 5.9 mg/dL (interquartile range 4.5-8.8). Overall, 60% experienced AKI, 52% experienced MAKE, and 32% died during hospitalization. After adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and laboratory values, a doubling in serum UA was associated with increased AKI (odds ratio [OR] 2.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9-4.1), MAKE (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.7-3.5), and in-hospital mortality (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.3). Higher serum UA levels were independently associated with a higher level of procalcitonin (ß, 0.6; SE 0.2) and troponin I (ß, 1.2; SE 0.2) but were not associated with serum ferritin, C-reactive protein, and interleukin-6. CONCLUSION: In patients admitted to the hospital for COVID-19, higher serum UA levels were independently associated with AKI, MAKE, and in-hospital mortality in a dose-dependent manner. In addition, hyperuricemia was associated with higher procalcitonin and troponin I levels.

Unplanned 30-Day Readmission Rates for Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease: Insight from the Nationwide Readmissions Database.

INTRODUCTION: Among end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients on dialysis with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), relatively little is known about the epidemiology and risk factors for 30-day readmissions in the USA. Therefore, we evaluated the 30-day unplanned readmission rates and predictors and inpatient care costs among ESKD patients with and without ADPKD using a nationally representative, all-payer database. METHODS: We utilized the Nationwide Readmissions Database from 2013 to 2018 to identify patients admitted for ESKD on dialysis with and without ADPKD using ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes. The primary outcome was a 30-day, unplanned readmission rate. Secondary outcomes were readmission reasons and timing, mortality, cost of hospitalization and rehospitalization, and adjusted predictors of readmissions. We used χ2 tests, t tests, and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests for descriptive analyses and survey logistic regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations with readmissions adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: From 2013 to 2018, in a cohort of 1,404,144 hospitalizations with ESKD on dialysis as the primary and secondary diagnosis on index admission, there were 8,213 (0.58%) patients with ADPKD and 1,395,932 patients without ADPKD. Those who had ADPKD during index admissions had fewer 30 days readmissions (18.8 vs. 23.8%, p < 0.0001). The cost of hospitalizations and readmissions in ESKD on-dialysis patients with ADPKD was higher than non-ADPKD patients. Compared to ESKD patients without ADPKD who were readmitted, readmitted ADPKD patients were more likely to be younger with a lower Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI) score; have received kidney transplant, lower source of income, elective index admissions, private insurance; and be discharged routinely, admitted in hospitals with larger bed size, in teaching hospitals, and less likely to get admitted through the emergency department. Younger age (<75 years), higher ECI score, longer length of stay, Medicare and Medicaid insurance, self-pay, discharge to a short-term hospital, specialized care, home health care, and against medical advice were associated with significantly increased odds of readmission. ADPKD patients were 31% less likely to get readmitted and 43% less likely to die during readmissions. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: Nationwide, ESKD on-dialysis patients with ADPKD were less likely to have 30-day readmission than patients without ADPKD. Inpatient mortality during readmissions in patients admitted with ESKD on dialysis was lower with ADPKD as compared to those without ADPKD at the cost of higher health care expenses.

Thrombosis, Bleeding, and the Observational Effect of Early Therapeutic Anticoagulation on Survival in Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Hypercoagulability may be a key mechanism of death in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and major bleeding in critically ill patients with COVID-19 and examine the observational effect of early therapeutic anticoagulation on survival. DESIGN: In a multicenter cohort study of 3239 critically ill adults with COVID-19, the incidence of VTE and major bleeding within 14 days after intensive care unit (ICU) admission was evaluated. A target trial emulation in which patients were categorized according to receipt or no receipt of therapeutic anticoagulation in the first 2 days of ICU admission was done to examine the observational effect of early therapeutic anticoagulation on survival. A Cox model with inverse probability weighting to adjust for confounding was used. SETTING: 67 hospitals in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with COVID-19 admitted to a participating ICU. MEASUREMENTS: Time to death, censored at hospital discharge, or date of last follow-up. RESULTS: Among the 3239 patients included, the median age was 61 years (interquartile range, 53 to 71 years), and 2088 (64.5%) were men. A total of 204 patients (6.3%) developed VTE, and 90 patients (2.8%) developed a major bleeding event. Independent predictors of VTE were male sex and higher D-dimer level on ICU admission. Among the 2809 patients included in the target trial emulation, 384 (11.9%) received early therapeutic anticoagulation. In the primary analysis, during a median follow-up of 27 days, patients who received early therapeutic anticoagulation had a similar risk for death as those who did not (hazard ratio, 1.12 [95% CI, 0.92 to 1.35]). LIMITATION: Observational design. CONCLUSION: Among critically ill adults with COVID-19, early therapeutic anticoagulation did not affect survival in the target trial emulation. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Nephrology Fellow Training and Well-Being in the United States: A National Survey.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic's effects on nephrology fellows' educational experiences, preparedness for practice, and emotional wellbeing are unknown. METHODS: We recruited current adult and pediatric fellows and 2020 graduates of nephrology training programs in the United States to participate in a survey measuring COVID-19's effects on their training experiences and wellbeing. RESULTS: Of 1005 nephrology fellows-in-training and recent graduates, 425 participated (response rate 42%). Telehealth was widely adopted (90% for some or all outpatient nephrology consults), as was remote learning (76% of conferences were exclusively online). Most respondents (64%) did not have in-person consults on COVID-19 inpatients; these patients were managed by telehealth visits (27%), by in-person visits with the attending faculty without fellows (29%), or by another approach (9%). A majority of fellows (84%) and graduates (82%) said their training programs successfully sustained their education during the pandemic, and most fellows (86%) and graduates (90%) perceived themselves as prepared for unsupervised practice. Although 42% indicated the pandemic had negatively affected their overall quality of life and 33% reported a poorer work-life balance, only 15% of 412 respondents who completed the Resident Well-Being Index met its distress threshold. Risk for distress was increased among respondents who perceived the pandemic had impaired their knowledge base (odds ratio [OR], 3.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.00 to 4.77) or negatively affected their quality of life (OR, 3.47; 95% CI, 2.29 to 5.46) or work-life balance (OR, 3.16; 95% CI, 2.18 to 4.71). CONCLUSIONS: Despite major shifts in education modalities and patient care protocols precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic, participants perceived their education and preparation for practice to be minimally affected.

AKI in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Early reports indicate that AKI is common among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and associated with worse outcomes. However, AKI among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in the United States is not well described. METHODS: This retrospective, observational study involved a review of data from electronic health records of patients aged ≥18 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the Mount Sinai Health System from February 27 to May 30, 2020. We describe the frequency of AKI and dialysis requirement, AKI recovery, and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with mortality. RESULTS: Of 3993 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, AKI occurred in 1835 (46%) patients; 347 (19%) of the patients with AKI required dialysis. The proportions with stages 1, 2, or 3 AKI were 39%, 19%, and 42%, respectively. A total of 976 (24%) patients were admitted to intensive care, and 745 (76%) experienced AKI. Of the 435 patients with AKI and urine studies, 84% had proteinuria, 81% had hematuria, and 60% had leukocyturia. Independent predictors of severe AKI were CKD, men, and higher serum potassium at admission. In-hospital mortality was 50% among patients with AKI versus 8% among those without AKI (aOR, 9.2; 95% confidence interval, 7.5 to 11.3). Of survivors with AKI who were discharged, 35% had not recovered to baseline kidney function by the time of discharge. An additional 28 of 77 (36%) patients who had not recovered kidney function at discharge did so on posthospital follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: AKI is common among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and is associated with high mortality. Of all patients with AKI, only 30% survived with recovery of kidney function by the time of discharge.

AKI Treated with Renal Replacement Therapy in Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: AKI is a common sequela of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, few studies have focused on AKI treated with RRT (AKI-RRT). METHODS: We conducted a multicenter cohort study of 3099 critically ill adults with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) at 67 hospitals across the United States. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify patient-and hospital-level risk factors for AKI-RRT and to examine risk factors for 28-day mortality among such patients. RESULTS: A total of 637 of 3099 patients (20.6%) developed AKI-RRT within 14 days of ICU admission, 350 of whom (54.9%) died within 28 days of ICU admission. Patient-level risk factors for AKI-RRT included CKD, men, non-White race, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, higher body mass index, higher d-dimer, and greater severity of hypoxemia on ICU admission. Predictors of 28-day mortality in patients with AKI-RRT were older age, severe oliguria, and admission to a hospital with fewer ICU beds or one with greater regional density of COVID-19. At the end of a median follow-up of 17 days (range, 1-123 days), 403 of the 637 patients (63.3%) with AKI-RRT had died, 216 (33.9%) were discharged, and 18 (2.8%) remained hospitalized. Of the 216 patients discharged, 73 (33.8%) remained RRT dependent at discharge, and 39 (18.1%) remained RRT dependent 60 days after ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS: AKI-RRT is common among critically ill patients with COVID-19 and is associated with a hospital mortality rate of >60%. Among those who survive to discharge, one in three still depends on RRT at discharge, and one in six remains RRT dependent 60 days after ICU admission.

Derivation and validation of a machine learning risk score using biomarker and electronic patient data to predict progression of diabetic kidney disease.

AIM: Predicting progression in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is critical to improving outcomes. We sought to develop/validate a machine-learned, prognostic risk score (KidneyIntelX™) combining electronic health records (EHR) and biomarkers. METHODS: This is an observational cohort study of patients with prevalent DKD/banked plasma from two EHR-linked biobanks. A random forest model was trained, and performance (AUC, positive and negative predictive values [PPV/NPV], and net reclassification index [NRI]) was compared with that of a clinical model and Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) categories for predicting a composite outcome of eGFR decline of ≥5 ml/min per year, ≥40% sustained decline, or kidney failure within 5 years. RESULTS: In 1146 patients, the median age was 63 years, 51% were female, the baseline eGFR was 54 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2, the urine albumin to creatinine ratio (uACR) was 6.9 mg/mmol, follow-up was 4.3 years and 21% had the composite endpoint. On cross-validation in derivation (n = 686), KidneyIntelX had an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.74, 0.79). In validation (n = 460), the AUC was 0.77 (95% CI 0.76, 0.79). By comparison, the AUC for the clinical model was 0.62 (95% CI 0.61, 0.63) in derivation and 0.61 (95% CI 0.60, 0.63) in validation. Using derivation cut-offs, KidneyIntelX stratified 46%, 37% and 17% of the validation cohort into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups for the composite kidney endpoint, respectively. The PPV for progressive decline in kidney function in the high-risk group was 61% for KidneyIntelX vs 40% for the highest risk strata by KDIGO categorisation (p < 0.001). Only 10% of those scored as low risk by KidneyIntelX experienced progression (i.e., NPV of 90%). The NRIevent for the high-risk group was 41% (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: KidneyIntelX improved prediction of kidney outcomes over KDIGO and clinical models in individuals with early stages of DKD.

Prone Positioning and Survival in Mechanically Ventilated Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019-Related Respiratory Failure.

OBJECTIVES: Therapies for patients with respiratory failure from coronavirus disease 2019 are urgently needed. Early implementation of prone positioning ventilation improves survival in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome, but studies examining the effect of proning on survival in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 are lacking. Our objective was to estimate the effect of early proning initiation on survival in patients with coronavirus disease 2019-associated respiratory failure. DESIGN: Data were derived from the Study of the Treatment and Outcomes in Critically Ill Patients with coronavirus disease 2019, a multicenter cohort study of critically ill adults with coronavirus disease 2019 admitted to 68 U.S. hospitals. Using these data, we emulated a target trial of prone positioning ventilation by categorizing mechanically ventilated hypoxemic (ratio of Pao2 over the corresponding Fio2 ≤ 200 mm Hg) patients as having been initiated on proning or not within 2 days of ICU admission. We fit an inverse probability-weighted Cox model to estimate the mortality hazard ratio for early proning versus no early proning. Patients were followed until death, hospital discharge, or end of follow-up. SETTING: ICUs at 68 U.S. sites. PATIENTS: Critically ill adults with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 receiving invasive mechanical ventilation with ratio of Pao2 over the corresponding Fio2 less than or equal to 200 mm Hg. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 2,338 eligible patients, 702 (30.0%) were proned within the first 2 days of ICU admission. After inverse probability weighting, baseline and severity of illness characteristics were well-balanced between groups. A total of 1,017 (43.5%) of the 2,338 patients were discharged alive, 1,101 (47.1%) died, and 220 (9.4%) were still hospitalized at last follow-up. Patients proned within the first 2 days of ICU admission had a lower adjusted risk of death compared with nonproned patients (hazard ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.73-0.97). CONCLUSIONS: In-hospital mortality was lower in mechanically ventilated hypoxemic patients with coronavirus disease 2019 treated with early proning compared with patients whose treatment did not include early proning.

Hyperglycemia is Associated With Increased Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the relationship between hyperglycemia in the presence and absence of diabetes mellitus (DM) and adverse outcomes in critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: The study included 133 patients with COVID-19 admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) at an urban academic quaternary-care center between March 10 and April 8, 2020. Patients were categorized based on the presence or absence of DM and early-onset hyperglycemia (EHG), defined as a blood glucose >180 mg/dL during the first 2 days after ICU admission. The primary outcome was 14-day all-cause in-hospital mortality; also examined were 60-day all-cause in-hospital mortality and the levels of C-reactive protein, interleukin 6, procalcitonin, and lactate. RESULTS: Compared to non-DM patients without EHG, non-DM patients with EHG exhibited higher adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality at 14 days (HR 7.51, CI 1.70-33.24) and 60 days (HR 6.97, CI 1.86-26.13). Non-DM patients with EHG also featured higher levels of median C-reactive protein (306.3 mg/L, P = .036), procalcitonin (1.26 ng/mL, P = .028), and lactate (2.2 mmol/L, P = .023). CONCLUSION: Among critically ill COVID-19 patients, those without DM with EHG were at greatest risk of 14-day and 60-day in-hospital mortality. Our study was limited by its retrospective design and relatively small cohort. However, our results suggest the combination of elevated glucose and lactate may identify a specific cohort of individuals at high risk for mortality from COVID-19. Glucose testing and control are important in individuals with COVID-19, even those without preexisting diabetes.

Comparison of Approaches for Prediction of Renal Replacement Therapy-Free Survival in Patients with Acute Kidney Injury.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Acute kidney injury (AKI) in critically ill patients is common, and continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) is a preferred mode of renal replacement therapy (RRT) in hemodynamically unstable patients. Prediction of clinical outcomes in patients on CRRT is challenging. We utilized several approaches to predict RRT-free survival (RRTFS) in critically ill patients with AKI requiring CRRT. METHODS: We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database to identify patients ≥18 years old with AKI on CRRT, after excluding patients who had ESRD on chronic dialysis, and kidney transplantation. We defined RRTFS as patients who were discharged alive and did not require RRT ≥7 days prior to hospital discharge. We utilized all available biomedical data up to CRRT initiation. We evaluated 7 approaches, including logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and MLP with long short-term memory (MLP + LSTM). We evaluated model performance by using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. RESULTS: Out of 684 patients with AKI on CRRT, 205 (30%) patients had RRTFS. The median age of patients was 63 years and their median Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II was 67 (interquartile range 52-84). The MLP + LSTM showed the highest AUROC (95% CI) of 0.70 (0.67-0.73), followed by MLP 0.59 (0.54-0.64), LR 0.57 (0.52-0.62), SVM 0.51 (0.46-0.56), AdaBoost 0.51 (0.46-0.55), RF 0.44 (0.39-0.48), and XGBoost 0.43 (CI 0.38-0.47). CONCLUSIONS: A MLP + LSTM model outperformed other approaches for predicting RRTFS. Performance could be further improved by incorporating other data types.

Natural language processing of electronic health records is superior to billing codes to identify symptom burden in hemodialysis patients.

Symptoms are common in patients on maintenance hemodialysis but identification is challenging. New informatics approaches including natural language processing (NLP) can be utilized to identify symptoms from narrative clinical documentation. Here we utilized NLP to identify seven patient symptoms from notes of maintenance hemodialysis patients of the BioMe Biobank and validated our findings using a separate cohort and the MIMIC-III database. NLP performance was compared for symptom detection with International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9/10 codes and the performance of both methods were validated against manual chart review. From 1034 and 519 hemodialysis patients within BioMe and MIMIC-III databases, respectively, the most frequently identified symptoms by NLP were fatigue, pain, and nausea/vomiting. In BioMe, sensitivity for NLP (0.85 - 0.99) was higher than for ICD codes (0.09 - 0.59) for all symptoms with similar results in the BioMe validation cohort and MIMIC-III. ICD codes were significantly more specific for nausea/vomiting in BioMe and more specific for fatigue, depression, and pain in the MIMIC-III database. A majority of patients in both cohorts had four or more symptoms. Patients with more symptoms identified by NLP, ICD, and chart review had more clinical encounters. NLP had higher specificity in inpatient notes but higher sensitivity in outpatient notes and performed similarly across pain severity subgroups. Thus, NLP had higher sensitivity compared to ICD codes for identification of seven common hemodialysis-related symptoms, with comparable specificity between the two methods. Hence, NLP may be useful for the high-throughput identification of patient-centered outcomes when using electronic health records.

Applications of machine learning methods in kidney disease: hope or hype?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The universal adoption of electronic health records, improvement in technology, and the availability of continuous monitoring has generated large quantities of healthcare data. Machine learning is increasingly adopted by nephrology researchers to analyze this data in order to improve the care of their patients. RECENT FINDINGS: In this review, we provide a broad overview of the different types of machine learning algorithms currently available and how researchers have applied these methods in nephrology research. Current applications have included prediction of acute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease along with progression of kidney disease. Researchers have demonstrated the ability of machine learning to read kidney biopsy samples, identify patient outcomes from unstructured data, and identify subtypes in complex diseases. We end with a discussion on the ethics and potential pitfalls of machine learning. SUMMARY: Machine learning provides researchers with the ability to analyze data that were previously inaccessible. While still burgeoning, several studies show promising results, which will enable researchers to perform larger scale studies and clinicians the ability to provide more personalized care. However, we must ensure that implementation aids providers and does not lead to harm to patients.

Trends and Racial Disparities of Palliative Care Use among Hospitalized Patients with ESKD on Dialysis.

BACKGROUND: Study findings show that although palliative care decreases symptom burden, it is still underused in patients with ESKD. Little is known about disparity in use of palliative care services in such patients in the inpatient setting. METHODS: To investigate the use of palliative care consultation in patients with ESKD in the inpatient setting, we conducted a retrospective cohort study using the National Inpatient Sample from 2006 to 2014 to identify admitted patients with ESKD requiring maintenance dialysis. We compared palliative care use among minority groups (black, Hispanic, and Asian) and white patients, adjusting for patient and hospital variables. RESULTS: We identified 5,230,865 hospitalizations of such patients from 2006 through 2014, of which 76,659 (1.5%) involved palliative care. The palliative care referral rate increased significantly, from 0.24% in 2006 to 2.70% in 2014 (P<0.01). Black and Hispanic patients were significantly less likely than white patients to receive palliative care services (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.72; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.61 to 0.84, P<0.01 for blacks and aOR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.68, P<0.01 for Hispanics). These disparities spanned across all hospital subtypes, including those with higher proportions of minorities. Minority patients with lower socioeconomic status (lower level of income and nonprivate health insurance) were also less likely to receive palliative care. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a clear increase during the study period in provision of palliative care for inpatients with ESKD, significant racial disparities occurred and persisted across all hospital subtypes. Further investigation into causes of racial and ethnic disparities is necessary to improve access to palliative care services for the vulnerable ESKD population.