Do abnormal screening results for chronic diseases motivate inactive people to start exercising? A community-based prospective cohort study in Changhua, Taiwan.

OBJECTIVE: Exercise improves health, but illnesses can cause changes in exercise behavior, including starting or stopping. This study investigated the effects of chronic disease screening on inactive individuals' exercise behavior and analyzed the impact of age and chronic disease history on this relationship using stratified analysis. METHODS: Using a community-based prospective observational cohort design and data from the Changhua Community-Based Integrated Screening (CHCIS) dataset from 2005 to 2020, we examined 12,038 people who were screened at least twice and self-reported having never exercised at their first screening. Changes in exercise behavior were classified as "initiating exercise" and "remaining inactive." We obtained chronic disease screening results from CHCIS records, which included measurements of waist circumference, blood glucose, blood pressure, triglycerides, and high-density lipoproteins. SAS version 9.4 was used for COX proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: The findings indicated that abnormal waist circumference and blood pressure increased the likelihood of initiating exercise compared to normal results. Age stratification showed that those aged 40-49 with abnormal results were more likely to start exercising than normal participants, but not those under 40 or over 65. When stratified by chronic disease history, abnormal screening results correlated with exercise initiation only in groups without chronic disease history, except for those with a history of hyperlipidemia. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to demonstrate that abnormal screening results may influence exercise initiation in individuals who have never exercised, and this association varies by screening item, age, and disease history.

Performance measures of 8,169,869 examinations in the National Breast Cancer Screening Program in Taiwan, 2004-2020.

BACKGROUND: The benefits of mammographic screening have been shown to include a decrease in mortality due to breast cancer. Taiwan's Breast Cancer Screening Program is a national screening program that has offered biennial mammographic breast cancer screening for women aged 50-69 years since 2004 and for those aged 45-69 years since 2009, with the implementation of mobile units in 2010. The purpose of this study was to compare the performance results of the program with changes in the previous (2004-2009) and latter (2010-2020) periods. METHODS: A cohort of 3,665,078 women who underwent biennial breast cancer mammography screenings from 2004 to 2020 was conducted, and data were obtained from the Health Promotion Administration, Ministry of Health and Welfare of Taiwan. We compared the participation of screened women and survival rates from breast cancer in the earlier and latter periods across national breast cancer screening programs. RESULTS: Among 3,665,078 women who underwent 8,169,869 examinations in the study population, the screened population increased from 3.9% in 2004 to 40% in 2019. The mean cancer detection rate was 4.76 and 4.08 cancers per 1000 screening mammograms in the earlier (2004-2009) and latter (2010-2020) periods, respectively. The 10-year survival rate increased from 89.68% in the early period to 97.33% in the latter period. The mean recall rate was 9.90% (95% CI: 9.83-9.97%) in the early period and decreased to 8.15% (95%CI, 8.13-8.17%) in the latter period. CONCLUSIONS: The evolution of breast cancer screening in Taiwan has yielded favorable outcomes by increasing the screening population, increasing the 10-year survival rate, and reducing the recall rate through the participation of young women, the implementation of a mobile unit service and quality assurance program, thereby providing historical evidence to policy makers to plan future needs.

Prediabetes as a risk factor for new-onset atrial fibrillation: the propensity-score matching cohort analyzed using the Cox regression model coupled with the random survival forest.

BACKGROUND: The glycemic continuum often indicates a gradual decline in insulin sensitivity leading to an increase in glucose levels. Although prediabetes is an established risk factor for both macrovascular and microvascular diseases, whether prediabetes is independently associated with the risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF), particularly the occurrence time, has not been well studied using a high-quality research design in combination with statistical machine-learning algorithms. METHODS: Using data available from electronic medical records collected from the National Taiwan University Hospital, a tertiary medical center in Taiwan, we conducted a retrospective cohort study consisting 174,835 adult patients between 2014 and 2019 to investigate the relationship between prediabetes and AF. To render patients with prediabetes as comparable to those with normal glucose test, a propensity-score matching design was used to select the matched pairs of two groups with a 1:1 ratio. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare the cumulative risk of AF between prediabetes and normal glucose test using log-rank test. The multivariable Cox regression model was employed to estimate adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for prediabetes versus normal glucose test by stratifying three levels of glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c). The machine-learning algorithm using the random survival forest (RSF) method was further used to identify the importance of clinical factors associated with AF in patients with prediabetes. RESULTS: A sample of 14,309 pairs of patients with prediabetes and normal glucose test result were selected. The incidence of AF was 11.6 cases per 1000 person-years during a median follow-up period of 47.1 months. The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the risk of AF was significantly higher in patients with prediabetes (log-rank p < 0.001). The multivariable Cox regression model indicated that prediabetes was independently associated with a significant increased risk of AF (HR 1.24, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.39, p < 0.001), particularly for patients with HbA1c above 5.5%. The RSF method identified elevated N-terminal natriuretic peptide and altered left heart structure as the two most important risk factors for AF among patients with prediabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found that prediabetes is independently associated with a higher risk of AF. Furthermore, alterations in left heart structure make a significant contribution to this elevated risk, and these structural changes may begin during the prediabetes stage.

Community-Based Digital Contact Tracing of Emerging Infectious Diseases: Design and Implementation Study With Empirical COVID-19 Cases.

BACKGROUND: Contact tracing for containing emerging infectious diseases such as COVID-19 is resource intensive and requires digital transformation to enable timely decision-making. OBJECTIVE: This study demonstrates the design and implementation of digital contact tracing using multimodal health informatics to efficiently collect personal information and contain community outbreaks. The implementation of digital contact tracing was further illustrated by 3 empirical SARS-CoV-2 infection clusters. METHODS: The implementation in Changhua, Taiwan, served as a demonstration of the multisectoral informatics and connectivity between electronic health systems needed for digital contact tracing. The framework incorporates traditional travel, occupation, contact, and cluster approaches and a dynamic contact process enabled by digital technology. A centralized registry system, accessible only to authorized health personnel, ensures privacy and data security. The efficiency of the digital contact tracing system was evaluated through a field study in Changhua. RESULTS: The digital contact tracing system integrates the immigration registry, communicable disease report system, and national health records to provide real-time information about travel, occupation, contact, and clusters for potential contacts and to facilitate a timely assessment of the risk of COVID-19 transmission. The digitalized system allows for informed decision-making regarding quarantine, isolation, and treatment, with a focus on personal privacy. In the first cluster infection, the system monitored 665 contacts and isolated 4 (0.6%) cases; none of the contacts (0/665, 0%) were infected during quarantine. The estimated reproduction number of 0.92 suggests an effective containment strategy for preventing community-acquired outbreak. The system was also used in a cluster investigation involving foreign workers, where none of the 462 contacts (0/462, 0%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSIONS: By integrating the multisectoral database, the contact tracing process can be digitalized to provide the information required for risk assessment and decision-making in a timely manner to contain a community-acquired outbreak when facing the outbreak of emerging infectious disease.

Effectiveness of a 30-year periodontist's primary care for 1946 patients during five-year follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of the periodontal primary care (PPC) on the improvement of periodontal probing depth based on a periodontist's 30-year practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We enrolled a total of 2,894 patients who underwent periodontal basic treatment between 1987 and 2017 with 84.5% retention rate. The study population was composed of 80% (n = 1,946) of retained patients with complete re-evaluation up to five-year follow-up. The outcome was measured by the improvement of probing depths (graded as 1:1-3 mm; 2:4-6 mm; 3: ≥7 mm) before and after PPC on both sextant and patient levels. Whether a better improvement was seen in the surgical group and the non-smoker group opposed to their comparators was assessed with various multi-variable regression models. RESULTS: On patient (sextant) level, 82% (38%) improved, 13% (59%) unchanged, and 5% (3%) deteriorated. Adjusted better improvement of probing depth was noted for the surgical group by 63% and non-smoker by 31% compared with their counterparts. The similar findings were found for the outcomes based on continuous probing depth scores. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the improvement of probing depth scores with a periodontal primary care offered for the retained patients and larger effect for the surgical group and non-smoker patients.

Faecal immunochemical test after negative colonoscopy may reduce the risk of incident colorectal cancer in a population-based screening programme.

OBJECTIVE: Subjects with a positive faecal immunochemical test (FIT) have a much higher likelihood of advanced neoplasms than the general population. Whether FIT-positive subjects with negative colonoscopy should receive subsequent FIT screening remain unclear. DESIGN: Subjects with a negative colonoscopy after positive FIT in the first screening in the Taiwanese Colorectal Cancer (CRC) Screening Program 2004-2009 were followed until the end of 2014. CRC incidence was compared between those who did and did not receive subsequent FIT screening. Cox regression analysis was conducted, adjusting for major confounders to investigate whether subsequent FIT was associated with lower risk of incident CRC. RESULTS: The study cohort was comprised of 9179 subjects who had negative diagnostic colonoscopy after positive FIT in 2004-2009, of whom 6195 received subsequent FIT during the study period. The CRC incidence (per 1000 person years) was 1.34 in those who received subsequent FIT and 2.69 in those who did not, with corresponding adjusted HR (aHR) of 0.47 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.71). Lower adenoma detection rate of diagnostic colonoscopy was associated with higher risk of incident CRC but became non-significant in multivariable analysis after adjustment for subsequent FIT. Higher baseline faecal haemoglobin concentration (FHbC, µg haemoglobin/g faeces) was associated with increased risk of incident CRC (reference: FHbC=20-39; aHR=1.93 (1.04-3.56), 0.95 (0.45-2.00), 2.26 (1.16-4.43) and 2.44 (1.44-4.12) for FHbC=40-59, 60-99, 100-149 and ≥150, respectively). CONCLUSION: Subsequent FIT should be scheduled after negative colonoscopy to detect missed neoplasms and reduce the risk of incident CRC in a national FIT screening programme.

Long-term effectiveness of faecal immunochemical test screening for proximal and distal colorectal cancers.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the effects of faecal immunochemical test (FIT) for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening on overall and site-specific long-term effectiveness of population-based organised service screening. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study of Taiwanese nationwide biennial FIT screening was performed. A total of 5 417 699 eligible subjects were invited to attend screening from 2004 through 2009 and were followed up until 2014. We estimated the adjusted relative rates (aRRs) on the effectiveness of reducing advanced-stage CRC (stage II+) and CRC death by Bayesian Poisson regression models with the full adjustment for a cascade of self-selection factors (including the screening rate and the colonoscopy rate) and the completeness of colonoscopy together with demographic features. RESULTS: FIT screening (exposed vs unexposed) reduced the incidence of advanced-stage CRC (48.4 vs 75.7 per 100 000) and mortality (20.3 vs 41.3 per 100 000). Statistically significant reductions of both incidence of advanced-stage CRCs (aRR=0.66, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.70) and deaths from CRC (aRR=0.60, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.64) were noted. FIT screening was more effective in reducing distal advanced-stage CRCs (aRR=0.61, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.64) and CRC mortality (aRR=0.56, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.69) than proximal advanced CRCs (aRR=0.84, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.92) and CRC mortality (aRR=0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.80). CONCLUSION: A large-scale population-based biennial FIT screening demonstrates 34% significant reduction of advanced-stage CRCs and 40% reduction of death from CRC with larger long-term effectiveness in the distal colon than the proximal colon. Our findings provide a strong and consistent evidence-based policy for supporting a sustainable population-based FIT organised service screening worldwide. The disparity of site-specific long-term effectiveness also provides an insight into the remedy for lower effectiveness of FIT screening in the proximal colon.

Long-term effectiveness of population-wide multifaceted interventions for hepatocellular carcinoma in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Taiwan has launched a series of population-wide interventions to prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) related to hepatitis B and C virus infection since 1984. We took this opportunity to investigate the impact of each intervention on the incidence and case-fatality rate of HCC, and assessed their relative contributions to the overall reduction in mortality during this period. METHODS: Population-based registry data on HCC mortality and incidence from individuals aged 0 to 84 years between 1979 and 2016 were collected before (Period 1) and after universal hepatitis B vaccination from 1984 (Period 2), universal health care from 1995 (Period 3), and viral hepatitis therapy from 2003 (Period 4). A Bayesian Poisson regression model was used for mortality decomposition analysis to estimate the respective contributions of these interventions to the reduction in age-specific incidence and case-fatality rates. RESULTS: Mortality declined substantially in children, young- and middle-aged groups, but only slightly decreased in the elderly group. The declining trends in mortality were in part explained by incidence reduction and in part by a remarkable decline in case-fatality rate attributed to universal health care. Hepatitis B vaccination led to a 35.9% (26.8% to 44.4%) reduction in incidence for individuals aged 30 years or below, whereas antiviral therapy reduced the incidence of HCC by 14.9% (11.8% to 17.9%) and 15.4% (14.1% to 16.6%) for individuals aged 30-49 years and 50-69 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination and antiviral therapy were effective in reducing HCC incidence and mortality for the young and middle-aged groups, while the case-fatality rate was improved by universal health care for all age groups. LAY SUMMARY: Since 1984, a series of population-wide interventions have been launched in Taiwan to prevent viral hepatitis-related hepatocellular carcinoma, including a universal hepatitis B vaccination program (from 1984), universal health care (from 1995), and a national viral hepatitis therapy program (from 2004). Vaccination and antiviral therapy were effective in reducing HCC incidence and mortality for the young and middle-aged groups, while the case-fatality rate was improved by universal health care for all age groups.

Beneficial Effect of Consecutive Screening Mammography Examinations on Mortality from Breast Cancer: A Prospective Study.

Background Previously, the risk of death from breast cancer was analyzed for women participating versus those not participating in the last screening examination before breast cancer diagnosis. Consecutive attendance patterns may further refine estimates. Purpose To estimate the effect of participation in successive mammographic screening examinations on breast cancer mortality. Materials and Methods Participation data for Swedish women eligible for screening mammography in nine counties from 1992 to 2016 were linked with data from registries and regional cancer centers for breast cancer diagnosis, cause, and date of death (Uppsala University ethics committee registration number: 2017/147). Incidence-based breast cancer mortality was calculated by whether the women had participated in the most recent screening examination prior to diagnosis only (intermittent participants), the penultimate screening examination only (lapsed participants), both examinations (serial participants), or neither examination (serial nonparticipants). Rates were analyzed with Poisson regression. We also analyzed incidence of breast cancers proving fatal within 10 years. Results Data were available for a total average population of 549 091 women (average age, 58.9 years ± 6.7 [standard deviation]). The numbers of participants in the four groups were as follows: serial participants, 392 135; intermittent participants, 41 746; lapsed participants, 30 945; and serial nonparticipants, 84 265. Serial participants had a 49% lower risk of breast cancer mortality (relative risk [RR], 0.51; 95% CI: 0.48, 0.55; P < .001) and a 50% lower risk of death from breast cancer within 10 years of diagnosis (RR, 0.50; 95% CI: 0.46, 0.55; P < .001) than serial nonparticipants. Lapsed and intermittent participants had a smaller reduction. Serial participants had significantly lower risk of both outcomes than lapsed or intermittent participants. Analyses correcting for potential biases made little difference to the results. Conclusion Women participating in the last two breast cancer screening examinations prior to breast cancer diagnosis had the largest reduction in breast cancer death. Missing either one of the last two examinations conferred a significantly higher risk. Published under a CC BY 4.0 license. Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Stephen A. Feig in this issue.

Modelling the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the quality of population-based colorectal cancer screening.

COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected regular public health interventions including population-based cancer screening. Impacts of such screening delays on the changes in structure and screening process and the resultant long-term outcomes are unknown. It is therefore necessary to develop a systematic framework to assess theses impacts related to these components of quality. Using population-based cancer screening with fecal immunochemical test (FIT) as an illustration, the main analysis was to assess how various scenarios of screening delays were associated with the capacity for primary screening and full time equivalent (FTE) for colonoscopy and impact long-term outcomes based on a Markov decision tree model on population level. The second analysis was to quantify how the extent of COVID-19 epidemic measured by social distancing index affected capacity and FTE that were translated to delays with an exponential relationship. COVID-19 epidemic led to 25%, 29%, 34%, and 39% statistically significantly incremental risks of late cancer for the delays of 0.5-year, 1-year,1.5-year, and 2-year, respectively compared with regular biennial FIT screening. The corresponding statistically findings of four delayed schedules for death from colorectal cancer (CRC) were 26%, 28%, 29%, and 30%, respectively. The higher social distancing index led to a lower capacity of uptake screening and a larger reduction of FTE, resulting in longer screening delay and longer waiting time, which further impacted long-term outcomes as above. In summary, a systematic modelling approach was developed for demonstrating the strong impact of screening delays caused by COVID-19 epidemic on long-term outcomes illustrated with a Taiwan population-based FIT screening of CRC.

Mammography screening reduces rates of advanced and fatal breast cancers: Results in 549,091 women.

BACKGROUND: It is of paramount importance to evaluate the impact of participation in organized mammography service screening independently from changes in breast cancer treatment. This can be done by measuring the incidence of fatal breast cancer, which is based on the date of diagnosis and not on the date of death. METHODS: Among 549,091 women, covering approximately 30% of the Swedish screening-eligible population, the authors calculated the incidence rates of 2473 breast cancers that were fatal within 10 years after diagnosis and the incidence rates of 9737 advanced breast cancers. Data regarding each breast cancer diagnosis and the cause and date of death of each breast cancer case were gathered from national Swedish registries. Tumor characteristics were collected from regional cancer centers. Aggregated data concerning invitation and participation were provided by Sectra Medical Systems AB. Incidence rates were analyzed using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Women who participated in mammography screening had a statistically significant 41% reduction in their risk of dying of breast cancer within 10 years (relative risk, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.51-0.68 [P < .001]) and a 25% reduction in the rate of advanced breast cancers (relative risk, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.66-0.84 [P < .001]). CONCLUSIONS: Substantial reductions in the incidence rate of breast cancers that were fatal within 10 years after diagnosis and in the advanced breast cancer rate were found in this contemporaneous comparison of women participating versus those not participating in screening. These benefits appeared to be independent of recent changes in treatment regimens.

An Index for Lifting Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Algorithm Recommendation for Lifting Social Distancing.

BACKGROUND: Implementing and lifting social distancing (LSD) is an urgent global issue during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly when the travel ban is lifted to revive international businesses and economies. However, when and whether LSD can be considered is subject to the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the recovery rate, and the case-fatality rate. It is imperative to provide real-time assessment of three factors to guide LSD. OBJECTIVE: A simple LSD index was developed for health decision makers to do real-time assessment of COVID-19 at the global, country, region, and community level. METHODS: Data on the retrospective cohort of 186 countries with three factors were retrieved from a publicly available repository from January to early July. A simple index for guiding LSD was measured by the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases and recoveries, and the case-fatality rate was envisaged. If the LSD index was less than 1, LSD can be considered. The dynamic changes of the COVID-19 pandemic were evaluated to assess whether and when health decision makers allowed for LSD and when to reimplement social distancing after resurgences of the epidemic. RESULTS: After large-scale outbreaks in a few countries before mid-March (prepandemic phase), the global weekly LSD index peaked at 4.27 in March and lasted until mid-June (pandemic phase), during which most countries were affected and needed to take various social distancing measures. Since, the value of LSD has gradually declined to 0.99 on July 5 (postpandemic phase), at which 64.7% (120/186) of countries and regions had an LSD<1 with the decile between 0 and 1 to refine risk stratification by countries. The LSD index decreased to 1 in about 115 days. In addition, we present the results of dynamic changes of the LSD index for the world and for each country and region with different time windows from January to July 5. The results of the LSD index on the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in certain regions and validation by other emerging infectious diseases are presented. CONCLUSIONS: This simple LSD index provides a quantitative assessment of whether and when to ease or implement social distancing to provide advice for health decision makers and travelers.

The incidence of fatal breast cancer measures the increased effectiveness of therapy in women participating in mammography screening.

BACKGROUND: Women and their health care providers need a reliable answer to this important question: If a woman chooses to participate in regular mammography screening, then how much will this choice improve her chances of avoiding a death from breast cancer compared with women who choose not to participate? METHODS: To answer this question, we used comprehensive registries for population, screening history, breast cancer incidence, and disease-specific death data in a defined population in Dalarna County, Sweden. The annual incidence of breast cancer was calculated along with the annual incidence of breast cancers that were fatal within 10 and within 11 to 20 years of diagnosis among women aged 40 to 69 years who either did or did not participate in mammography screening during a 39-year period (1977-2015). For an additional comparison, corresponding data are presented from 19 years of the prescreening period (1958-1976). All patients received stage-specific therapy according to the latest national guidelines, irrespective of the mode of detection. RESULTS: The benefit for women who chose to participate in an organized breast cancer screening program was a 60% lower risk of dying from breast cancer within 10 years after diagnosis (relative risk, 0.40; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.48) and a 47% lower risk of dying from breast cancer within 20 years after diagnosis (relative risk, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.63) compared with the corresponding risks for nonparticipants. CONCLUSIONS: Although all patients with breast cancer stand to benefit from advances in breast cancer therapy, the current results demonstrate that women who have participated in mammography screening obtain a significantly greater benefit from the therapy available at the time of diagnosis than do those who have not participated.

Serum Pepsinogen as a Predictor for Gastric Cancer Death: A 16-Year Community-based Cohort Study.

GOALS: The purpose of this article is to validate the long-term association between initial serum pepsinogen (PG) measurements and subsequent gastric cancer-specific deaths from a long-term longitudinal cohort. BACKGROUND: Endoscopic surveillance can be effective and efficient in reducing gastric cancer mortality if a biomarker such as serum PG is available to identify high-risk individuals and if the biomarker also is specific to gastric cancer risk. STUDY: Between 1995 and 1998, a gastric cancer-screening program was conducted in a high-risk population: The first stage involved PG testing, and the second stage involved upper endoscopy. The outcome was gastric cancer death, which was monitored until December 31, 2010; results were expressed as the hazard ratio (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Other causes of death were used as comparators. RESULTS: Among participants (n=3514) aged ≥30 years, 1682 (47.9%) were screened to determine serum PG levels. After 16 years of follow-up, 14 deaths from gastric cancer were documented. Multivariate analyses adjusted for age, sex, and Helicobacter pylori serological positivity showed that PG-I <30 µg/L and PG-I <30 µg/L or PG-I/II ratio <3 were significantly associated with the risk of gastric cancer death (HR, 3.27; 95% CI, 1.11-9.61 and HR, 3.45; 95% CI, 1.18-10.12, respectively). In contrast, there were no significant associations between PG and other causes of death, including neoplastic and non-neoplastic diseases. CONCLUSION: This long-term cohort study shows the usefulness of PG measurement as a biomarker that is specific to the risk of gastric cancer death.

The XRCC 1 DNA repair gene modifies the environmental risk of stomach cancer: a hospital-based matched case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have found that polymorphisms of the DNA repair gene X-ray repair cross-complementing group 1(XRCC1) and environmental factors are both associated with an increased risk of stomach cancer, but no study has reported on the potential additive effect of these factors among Thai people. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the risk of stomach cancer from XRCC1 gene polymorphisms was modified by environmental factors in the Thai population. METHODS: Hospital-based matched case-control study data were collected from 101 new stomach cancer cases and 202 controls, which were recruited from2002 to 2006 and were matched for gender and age. Genotype analysis was performed using real-time PCR-HRM. The data were analysed by the chi-square test and conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: The Arg/Arg homozygote polymorphism of the XRCC1 gene was associated with an increased risk of stomach cancer in the Thai population (OR adj, 3.7; 95%CI, 1.30-10.72) compared with Gln/Gln homozygosity. The effect of the XRCC1gene on the risk of stomach cancer was modified by both a high intake of vegetable oils and salt (p = 0.036 and p = 0.014), particularly for the Arg/Arg homozygous genotype. There were, however, no additive effects on the risk of stomach cancer between variants of the XRCC1gene and smoking,alcohol or pork oil consumption. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of the XRCC1 gene homozygosity, particularly Arg/Arg, on the risk for stomach cancer was elevated by a high intake of vegetable oils and salt.

Etiology and Risk Factors of Acute Gastroenteritis in a Taipei Emergency Department: Clinical Features for Bacterial Gastroenteritis.

BACKGROUND: The causative pathogen is rarely identified in the emergency department (ED), since the results of cultures are usually unavailable. As a result, antimicrobial treatment may be overused. The aim of our study was to investigate the pathogens, risk factors of acute gastroenteritis, and predictors of acute bacterial gastroenteritis in the ED. METHODS: We conducted a matched case-control study of 627 stool samples and 612 matched pairs. RESULTS: Viruses (41.3%) were the leading cause of gastroenteritis, with noroviruses (32.2%) being the most prevalent, followed by bacteria (26.8%) and Giardia lamblia (12.4%). Taking antacids (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.10; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.57-6.53), household members/classmates with gastroenteritis (aOR 4.69; 95% CI, 2.76-7.96), attending a banquet (aOR 2.29; 95% CI, 1.64-3.20), dining out (aOR 1.70; 95% CI, 1.13-2.54), and eating raw oysters (aOR 3.10; 95% CI, 1.61-5.94) were highly associated with gastroenteritis. Elders (aOR 1.04; 05% CI, 1.02-1.05), those with CRP >10 mg/L (aOR 2.04; 95% CI, 1.15-3.62), or those who were positive for fecal leukocytes (aOR 2.04; 95% CI, 1.15-3.62) or fecal occult blood (aOR 1.97; 95% CI, 1.03-3.77) were more likely to be hospitalized in ED. In addition, presence of fecal leukocytes (time ratio [TR] 1.22; 95% CI, 1.06-1.41), abdominal pain (TR 1.20; 95% CI, 1.07-1.41), and frequency of vomiting (TR 0.79; 95% CI, 0.64-0.98) were significantly associated with the duration of acute gastroenteritis. Presence of fecal leukocytes (aOR 2.08; 95% CI, 1.42-3.05), winter season (aOR 0.45; 95% CI, 0.28-0.74), frequency of diarrhea (aOR 1.69; 95% CI, 1.01-2.83), and eating shrimp or crab (aOR 1.53; 95% CI, 1.05-2.23) were highly associated with bacterial gastroenteritis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the final model was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.55-0.63). CONCLUSIONS: Acute bacterial gastroenteritis was highly associated with season, frequency of diarrhea, frequency of vomiting, and eating shrimp or crab.

Insights from the breast cancer screening trials: how screening affects the natural history of breast cancer and implications for evaluating service screening programs.

It is desirable to have a strategy for evaluation of breast cancer service screening programs years before the long-term breast cancer mortality data are available. Since successful mammography screening has a significant impact on two components of the TNM (tumor size, node status, presence or absence of distant metastases) classification system, tumor size and node status, we investigated the effect of the randomized breast screening trials on incidence of advanced stage disease and on the subsequent breast cancer death rate. In the trials that achieved a 20% or greater reduction in advanced stage disease, there was an average breast cancer mortality reduction of 28% among women invited to screening (attenders and nonattenders combined). In the trials that achieved a reduction in advanced stage disease of less than 10%, there was no reduction in breast cancer mortality among women invited to screening. This study provides evidence that the average mortality reduction in all the trials underestimates the true mortality reduction, and that substantially greater breast cancer mortality reductions can be expected in screening programs that are effective in reducing advanced stage breast cancer. In addition, monitoring the incidence of advanced stage breast cancer in an ongoing screening program can provide a sensitive and early indicator of the subsequent mortality from the disease.