A simple method to describe the COVID-19 trajectory and dynamics in any country based on Johnson cumulative density function fitting.

A simple method is utilised to study and compare COVID-19 infection dynamics between countries based on curve fitting to publicly shared data of confirmed COVID-19 infections. The method was tested using data from 80 countries from 6 continents. We found that Johnson cumulative density functions (CDFs) were extremely well fitted to the data (R2 > 0.99) and that Johnson CDFs were much better fitted to the tails of the data than either the commonly used normal or lognormal CDFs. Fitted Johnson CDFs can be used to obtain basic parameters of the infection wave, such as the percentage of the population infected during an infection wave, the days of the start, peak and end of the infection wave, and the duration of the wave's increase and decrease. These parameters can be easily interpreted biologically and used both for describing infection wave dynamics and in further statistical analysis. The usefulness of the parameters obtained was analysed with respect to the relation between the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the population density, the percentage of the population infected during an infection wave, the starting day and the duration of the infection wave in the 80 countries. We found that all the above parameters were significantly associated with GDP per capita, but only the percentage of the population infected was significantly associated with population density. If used with caution, this method has a limited ability to predict the future trajectory and parameters of an ongoing infection wave.

The size and shape of parasitic larvae of naiads (Unionidae) are not dependent on female size.

The naiads, large freshwater mussels (Unionida), have very long life spans, are large-bodied, and produce thousands to millions of larvae (glochidia) which typically must attach to host fish tissues to metamorphose into a juvenile mussel. Glochidia develop within a female's marsupial gill demibranch, thus their number is restricted by female size. However, larger mussels acquire more energy, which could be invested in either larger-sized glochidia, in a more glochidia, or a combination of both. The high level of host specialization seen in many naiads may constrain glochidial size and shape around a narrow optimum, while naiads that use a wide range of host fishes may be predicted to possess greater plasticity in glochidial morphology. In this paper, we investigated the relationship between maternal body size and progeny body size and shape, aided by modern digital microscopy. We analyzed the between- and within- species variation of glochidia size and shape relative to female size in four widespread species of European naiads: Anodonta anatina, Anodonta cygnea, Unio crassus and Unio tumidus. Whereas the total reproductive output is collinear with female body size, substantial differences between species in glochidia size were found within genus Anodonta, but not genus Unio where glochidial size is remarkably consistent. The glochidial shape, however, differed within both Unio and Anodonta. We interpret this constant within-species glochidial size in Unio as reflecting a constraint imposed by the likelihood of successful transmission onto and off from a narrow range of hosts, whereas their shape seems to be less constrained. The Anodonta species, inhabiting a wide spectrum of habitats and using more than twice the number of fish hosts than Unio spp., have larger glochidia with greater variation in size and shape. Our results suggest that measures of glochidial variability may also serve as an indicator of host specificity in other naiads.

Response of freshwater mussel recruitment to hydrological changes in a eutrophic floodplain lake.

Although eutrophication of freshwaters is a natural process, the human impact often leads to inland waters becoming overloaded with nutrients, impoverishing many valuable and vanishing habitats, such as floodplain lakes. These changes need to be reversed if the occurrence of endangered aquatic species is to be restored. In this paper we analyse the impact of a change in the water regime of a naturally eutrophic floodplain lake, which harbours a large diversity of Unionidae (large freshwater mussels), a globally threatened taxonomic group that provides important ecosystem functions and services. We found that a slight increase in the discharge from this waterbody, following the construction of an additional outflow pipe, positively influenced recruitment in three of the five mussel species inhabiting the lake. We also found that, after the construction of this additional outflow, the niches of juveniles of Anodonta cygnea and Unio spp. changed, revealing differences in their hydrological requirements. Our results suggest that, as in lotic habitats, complex hydraulic parameters are highly significant to unionid mussels in lentic conditions.

Intraseasonal asynchrony as a factor boosting isolation within a metapopulation: The case of the clouded apollo.

This article discusses the influence of phenology-related intraseasonal asynchrony on metapopulation dynamics and stability. As the part played by intraseasonal asynchrony is as yet unclear and poorly described, greater account of it should be taken in both metapopulation research and conservation practice. The subpopulations of the Parnassius mnemosyne metapopulation studied here are strongly isolated because of the phenological shift between them, despite the relatively small physical distances between them. This isolation is the result of a significant temporal shift in the species' flight periods in the main metapopulation centers: in some seasons its flight times in the different subpopulations did not overlap at all. The predicted results of such strong intraseasonal asynchrony are not altogether clear. On the one hand, they reduce the vulnerability of the entire metapopulation to the effects of short-term random disasters. On the other, the ever-greater isolation of subpopulations may cause the metapopulation to become a nonequilibrium one, which will have a serious impact on its long-term survival.

On the reintroduction of the endangered thick-shelled river mussel Unio crassus: The importance of the river's longitudinal profile.

Freshwater mussels of the order Unionida provide important ecosystem functions and services. Unfortunately, some previously widespread species are now seriously endangered. To restore the historical range of the population of Unio crassus in the Biala River, southern Poland, the species was reintroduced into a series of 'stepping stones' joining two remnant populations. During the first phase of the study, the relationships between the abundance of U. crassus, physical habitat, and water quality were studied to assess reintroduction potential. In general, chemical water quality improved upstream from the existing population, favouring the decision for reintroduction, whereas morphological variables worsened. Mussel abundance was correlated negatively with the elevation and slope of channel, organic matter contents, and pH (exceeding 8.0), but positively with silt presence, water conductivity, and concentrations of HCO3-, Ca2+, and NO3-. During the second phase, adult individuals were introduced into one type of functional habitat-marginal channel sectors with still water and fine sediment. Despite the initial very high rate of reproduction in some parts of the upper reach of the river, the juveniles were ultimately recruited only in the lower part of the restored range, resulting in a very rapid change in recruitment at a channel slope of 1.8‰. Recruitment was positively related to silt content, conductivity, and Ca2+ and HCO3- ions, negatively to channel elevation and slope, and water pH. The host fish species showed no correlation with abiotic habitat features within the studied reach. These results imply that most of the habitat traits related to U. crassus occurrence depended on the river's longitudinal profile, not on the chemical water quality, and that final success of introduction should be evaluated after several years.