Pervasive phosphorus limitation of tree species but not communities in tropical forests.

Phosphorus availability is widely assumed to limit primary productivity in tropical forests, but support for this paradigm is equivocal. Although biogeochemical theory predicts that phosphorus limitation should be prevalent on old, strongly weathered soils, experimental manipulations have failed to detect a consistent response to phosphorus addition in species-rich lowland tropical forests. Here we show, by quantifying the growth of 541 tropical tree species across a steep natural phosphorus gradient in Panama, that phosphorus limitation is widespread at the level of individual species and strengthens markedly below a threshold of two parts per million exchangeable soil phosphate. However, this pervasive species-specific phosphorus limitation does not translate into a community-wide response, because some species grow rapidly on infertile soils despite extremely low phosphorus availability. These results redefine our understanding of nutrient limitation in diverse plant communities and have important implications for attempts to predict the response of tropical forests to environmental change.

Publisher Correction: Pervasive phosphorus limitation of tree species but not communities in tropical forests.

In this Letter, the y axis of the right-hand panel of Fig. 2a was mislabelled 'Phosphomonoesterase' instead of 'Phosphodiesterase'. This error has been corrected online.

Physiological tipping points in the relationship between foraging success and lifetime fitness of a long-lived mammal.

Although anthropogenic change is often gradual, the impacts on animal populations may be precipitous if physiological processes create tipping points between energy gain, reproduction or survival. We use 25 years of behavioural, diet and demographic data from elephant seals to characterise their relationships with lifetime fitness. Survival and reproduction increased with mass gain during long foraging trips preceding the pupping seasons, and there was a threshold where individuals that gained an additional 4.8% of their body mass (26 kg, from 206 to 232 kg) increased lifetime reproductive success three-fold (from 1.8 to 4.9 pups). This was due to a two-fold increase in pupping probability (30% to 76%) and a 7% increase in reproductive lifespan (6.0 to 6.4 years). The sharp threshold between mass gain and reproduction may explain reproductive failure observed in many species and demonstrates how small, gradual reductions in prey from anthropogenic disturbance could have profound implications for animal populations.

Breakdown of the growth-mortality trade-off along a soil phosphorus gradient in a diverse tropical forest.

An ecological paradigm predicts that plant species adapted to low resource availability grow slower and live longer than those adapted to high resource availability when growing together. We tested this by using hierarchical Bayesian analysis to quantify variations in growth and mortality of ca 40 000 individual trees from greater than 400 species in response to limiting resources in the tropical forests of Panama. In contrast to theoretical expectations of the growth-mortality paradigm, we find that tropical tree species restricted to low-phosphorus soils simultaneously achieve faster growth rates and lower mortality rates than species restricted to high-phosphorus soils. This result demonstrates that adaptation to phosphorus limitation in diverse plant communities modifies the growth-mortality trade-off, with important implications for understanding long-term ecosystem dynamics.

Pervasive decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time across forest climate zones.

Forests play a major role in the global carbon cycle. Previous studies on the capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO2 have mostly focused on carbon uptake, but the roles of carbon turnover time and its spatiotemporal changes remain poorly understood. Here, we used long-term inventory data (1955 to 2018) from 695 mature forest plots to quantify temporal trends in living vegetation carbon turnover time across tropical, temperate, and cold climate zones, and compared plot data to 8 Earth system models (ESMs). Long-term plots consistently showed decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time, likely driven by increased tree mortality across all major climate zones. Changes in living vegetation carbon turnover time were negatively correlated with CO2 enrichment in both forest plot data and ESM simulations. However, plot-based correlations between living vegetation carbon turnover time and climate drivers such as precipitation and temperature diverged from those of ESM simulations. Our analyses suggest that forest carbon sinks are likely to be constrained by a decrease in living vegetation carbon turnover time, and accurate projections of forest carbon sink dynamics will require an improved representation of tree mortality processes and their sensitivity to climate in ESMs.

Density-dependent effects on reproductive output in a capital breeding carnivore, the northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris).

All organisms face resource limitations that will ultimately restrict population growth, but the controlling mechanisms vary across ecosystems, taxa, and reproductive strategies. Using four decades of data, we examine how variation in the environment and population density affect reproductive outcomes in a capital-breeding carnivore, the northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris). This species provides a unique opportunity to examine the relative importance of resource acquisition and density-dependence on breeding success. Capital breeders accrue resources over large temporal and spatial scales for use during an abbreviated reproductive period. This strategy may have evolved, in part, to confer resilience to short-term environmental variability. We observed density-dependent effects on weaning mass, and maternal age (experience) was more important than oceanographic conditions or maternal mass in determining offspring weaning mass. Together these findings show that the mechanisms controlling reproductive output are conserved across terrestrial and marine systems and vary with population dynamics, an important consideration when assessing the effect of extrinsic changes, such as climate change, on a population.

Species packing and the latitudinal gradient in beta-diversity.

The decline in species richness at higher latitudes is among the most fundamental patterns in ecology. Whether changes in species composition across space (beta-diversity) contribute to this gradient of overall species richness (gamma-diversity) remains hotly debated. Previous studies that failed to resolve the issue suffered from a well-known tendency for small samples in areas with high gamma-diversity to have inflated measures of beta-diversity. Here, we provide a novel analytical test, using beta-diversity metrics that correct the gamma-diversity and sampling biases, to compare beta-diversity and species packing across a latitudinal gradient in tree species richness of 21 large forest plots along a large environmental gradient in East Asia. We demonstrate that after accounting for topography and correcting the gamma-diversity bias, tropical forests still have higher beta-diversity than temperate analogues. This suggests that beta-diversity contributes to the latitudinal species richness gradient as a component of gamma-diversity. Moreover, both niche specialization and niche marginality (a measure of niche spacing along an environmental gradient) also increase towards the equator, after controlling for the effect of topographical heterogeneity. This supports the joint importance of tighter species packing and larger niche space in tropical forests while also demonstrating the importance of local processes in controlling beta-diversity.

Leaf turgor loss point shapes local and regional distributions of evergreen but not deciduous tropical trees.

The effects of climate change on tropical forests will depend on how diverse tropical tree species respond to drought. Current distributions of evergreen and deciduous tree species across local and regional moisture gradients reflect their ability to tolerate drought stress, and might be explained by functional traits. We measured leaf water potential at turgor loss (i.e. 'wilting point'; πtlp ), wood density (WD) and leaf mass per area (LMA) on 50 of the most abundant tree species in central Panama. We then tested their ability to explain distributions of evergreen and deciduous species within a 50 ha plot on Barro Colorado Island and across a 70 km rainfall gradient spanning the Isthmus of Panama. Among evergreen trees, species with lower πtlp were associated with drier habitats, with πtlp explaining 28% and 32% of habitat association on local and regional scales, respectively, greatly exceeding the predictive power of WD and LMA. In contrast, πtlp did not predict habitat associations among deciduous species. Across spatial scales, πtlp is a useful indicator of habitat preference for tropical tree species that retain their leaves during periods of water stress, and holds the potential to predict vegetation responses to climate change.

Partitioning mortality into growth-dependent and growth-independent hazards across 203 tropical tree species.

Tree death drives population dynamics, nutrient cycling, and evolution within plant communities. Mortality variation across species is thought to be influenced by different factors relative to variation within species. The unified model provided here separates mortality rates into growth-dependent and growth-independent hazards. This model creates the opportunity to simultaneously estimate these hazards both across and within species. Moreover, it provides the ability to examine how species traits affect growth-dependent and growth-independent hazards. We derive this unified mortality model using cross-validated Bayesian methods coupled with mortality data collected over three census intervals for 203 tropical rainforest tree species at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. We found that growth-independent mortality tended to be higher in species with lower wood density, higher light requirements, and smaller maximum diameter at breast height (dbh). Mortality due to marginal carbon budget as measured by near-zero growth rate tended to be higher in species with lower wood density and higher light demand. The total mortality variation attributable to differences among species was large relative to variation explained by these traits, emphasizing that much remains to be understood. This additive hazards model strengthens our capacity to parse and understand individual-level mortality in highly diverse tropical forests and hence to predict its consequences.

Temporal population variability in local forest communities has mixed effects on tree species richness across a latitudinal gradient.

Among the local processes that determine species diversity in ecological communities, fluctuation-dependent mechanisms that are mediated by temporal variability in the abundances of species populations have received significant attention. Higher temporal variability in the abundances of species populations can increase the strength of temporal niche partitioning but can also increase the risk of species extinctions, such that the net effect on species coexistence is not clear. We quantified this temporal population variability for tree species in 21 large forest plots and found much greater variability for higher latitude plots with fewer tree species. A fitted mechanistic model showed that among the forest plots, the net effect of temporal population variability on tree species coexistence was usually negative, but sometimes positive or negligible. Therefore, our results suggest that temporal variability in the abundances of species populations has no clear negative or positive contribution to the latitudinal gradient in tree species richness.

Testing for changes in biomass dynamics in large-scale forest datasets.

Tropical forest responses to climate and atmospheric change are critical to the future of the global carbon budget. Recent studies have reported increases in estimated above-ground biomass (EAGB) stocks, productivity, and mortality in old-growth tropical forests. These increases could reflect a shift in forest functioning due to global change and/or long-lasting recovery from past disturbance. We introduce a novel approach to disentangle the relative contributions of these mechanisms by decomposing changes in whole-plot biomass fluxes into contributions from changes in the distribution of gap-successional stages and changes in fluxes for a given stage. Using 30 years of forest dynamic data at Barro Colorado Island, Panama, we investigated temporal variation in EAGB fluxes as a function of initial EAGB (EAGBi ) in 10 × 10 m quadrats. Productivity and mortality fluxes both increased strongly with initial quadrat EAGB. The distribution of EAGB (and thus EAGBi ) across quadrats hardly varied over 30 years (and seven censuses). EAGB fluxes as a function of EAGBi varied largely and significantly among census intervals, with notably higher productivity in 1985-1990 associated with recovery from the 1982-1983 El Niño event. Variation in whole-plot fluxes among census intervals was explained overwhelmingly by variation in fluxes as a function of EAGBi , with essentially no contribution from changes in EAGBi distributions. The high observed temporal variation in productivity and mortality suggests that this forest is very sensitive to climate variability. There was no consistent long-term trend in productivity, mortality, or biomass in this forest over 30 years, although the temporal variability in productivity and mortality was so strong that it could well mask a substantial trend. Accurate prediction of future tropical forest carbon budgets will require accounting for disturbance-recovery dynamics and understanding temporal variability in productivity and mortality.

Direct and indirect effects of climate on richness drive the latitudinal diversity gradient in forest trees.

Climate is widely recognised as an important determinant of the latitudinal diversity gradient. However, most existing studies make no distinction between direct and indirect effects of climate, which substantially hinders our understanding of how climate constrains biodiversity globally. Using data from 35 large forest plots, we test hypothesised relationships amongst climate, topography, forest structural attributes (stem abundance, tree size variation and stand basal area) and tree species richness to better understand drivers of latitudinal tree diversity patterns. Climate influences tree richness both directly, with more species in warm, moist, aseasonal climates and indirectly, with more species at higher stem abundance. These results imply direct limitation of species diversity by climatic stress and more rapid (co-)evolution and narrower niche partitioning in warm climates. They also support the idea that increased numbers of individuals associated with high primary productivity are partitioned to support a greater number of species.

Species-area relationships and biodiversity loss in fragmented landscapes.

To estimate species loss from habitat destruction, ecologists typically use species-area relationships, but this approach neglects the spatial pattern of habitat fragmentation. Here, we provide new, easily applied, analytical methods that place upper and lower bounds on immediate species loss at any spatial scale and for any spatial pattern of habitat loss. Our formulas are expressed in terms of what we name the 'Preston function', which describes triphasic species-area relationships for contiguous regions. We apply our method to case studies of deforestation and tropical tree species loss at three different scales: a 50 ha forest plot in Panama, the tropical city-state of Singapore and the Brazilian Amazon. Our results show that immediate species loss is somewhat insensitive to fragmentation pattern at small scales but highly sensitive at larger scales: predicted species loss in the Amazon varies by a factor of 16 across different spatial structures of habitat loss.

Beyond the fast-slow continuum: demographic dimensions structuring a tropical tree community.

Life-history theory posits that trade-offs between demographic rates constrain the range of viable life-history strategies. For coexisting tropical tree species, the best established demographic trade-off is the growth-survival trade-off. However, we know surprisingly little about co-variation of growth and survival with measures of reproduction. We analysed demographic rates from seed to adult of 282 co-occurring tropical tree and shrub species, including measures of reproduction and accounting for ontogeny. Besides the well-established fast-slow continuum, we identified a second major dimension of demographic variation: a trade-off between recruitment and seedling performance vs. growth and survival of larger individuals (≥ 1 cm dbh) corresponding to a 'stature-recruitment' axis. The two demographic dimensions were almost perfectly aligned with two independent trait dimensions (shade tolerance and size). Our results complement recent analyses of plant life-history variation at the global scale and reveal that demographic trade-offs along multiple axes act to structure local communities.

High Initial Sputter Rate Found for Vaccinia Virions Using Isotopic Labeling, NanoSIMS, and AFM.

High-lateral-resolution secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) has the potential to provide functional and depth resolved information from small biological structures, such as viral particles (virions) and phage, but sputter rate and sensitivity are not characterized at shallow depths relevant to these structures. Here we combine stable isotope labeling of the DNA of vaccinia virions with correlated SIMS imaging depth profiling and atomic force microscopy (AFM) to develop a nonlinear, nonequilibrium sputter rate model for the virions and validate the model on the basis of reconstructing the location of the DNA within individual virions. Our experiments with a Cs+ beam show an unexpectedly high initial sputter rate (∼100 um2·nm·pA-1·s-1) with a rapid decline to an asymptotic rate of 0.7 um2·nm·pA-1·s-1 at an approximate depth of 70 nm. Correlated experiments were also conducted with glutaraldehyde-fixed virions, as well as O- and Ga+ beams, yielding similar results. Based on our Cs+ sputter rate model, the labeled DNA in the virion was between 50 and 90 nm depth in the virion core, consistent with expectations, supporting our conclusions. Virion densification was found to be a secondary effect. Accurate isotopic ratios were obtained from the initiation of sputtering, suggesting that isotopic tracers could be successfully used for smaller virions and phage.

Role of tree size in moist tropical forest carbon cycling and water deficit responses.

Drought disproportionately affects larger trees in tropical forests, but implications for forest composition and carbon (C) cycling in relation to dry season intensity remain poorly understood. In order to characterize how C cycling is shaped by tree size and drought adaptations and how these patterns relate to spatial and temporal variation in water deficit, we analyze data from three forest dynamics plots spanning a moisture gradient in Panama that have experienced El Niño droughts. At all sites, aboveground C cycle contributions peaked below 50-cm stem diameter, with stems ≥ 50 cm accounting for on average 59% of live aboveground biomass, 45% of woody productivity and 49% of woody mortality. The dominance of drought-avoidance strategies increased interactively with stem diameter and dry season intensity. Although size-related C cycle contributions did not vary systematically across the moisture gradient under nondrought conditions, woody mortality of larger trees was disproportionately elevated under El Niño drought stress. Thus, large (> 50 cm) stems, which strongly mediate but do not necessarily dominate C cycling, have drought adaptations that compensate for their more challenging hydraulic environment, particularly in drier climates. However, these adaptations do not fully buffer the effects of severe drought, and increased large tree mortality dominates ecosystem-level drought responses.

Variation in hydroclimate sustains tropical forest biomass and promotes functional diversity.

The fate of tropical forests under climate change is unclear as a result, in part, of the uncertainty in projected changes in precipitation and in the ability of vegetation models to capture the effects of drought-induced mortality on aboveground biomass (AGB). We evaluated the ability of a terrestrial biosphere model with demography and hydrodynamics (Ecosystem Demography, ED2-hydro) to simulate AGB and mortality of four tropical tree plant functional types (PFTs) that operate along light- and water-use axes. Model predictions were compared with observations of canopy trees at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. We then assessed the implications of eight hypothetical precipitation scenarios, including increased annual precipitation, reduced inter-annual variation, El Niño-related droughts and drier wet or dry seasons, on AGB and functional diversity of the model forest. When forced with observed meteorology, ED2-hydro predictions capture multiple BCI benchmarks. ED2-hydro predicts that AGB will be sustained under lower rainfall via shifts in the functional composition of the forest, except under the drier dry-season scenario. These results support the hypothesis that inter-annual variation in mean and seasonal precipitation promotes the coexistence of functionally diverse PFTs because of the relative differences in mortality rates. If the hydroclimate becomes chronically drier or wetter, functional evenness related to drought tolerance may decline.

Community-level species' correlated distribution can be scale-independent and related to the evenness of abundance.

The spatial distribution of species is not random; instead, individuals tend to gather, resulting in a non-random pattern. Previous studies used the independent negative binomial distribution (NBD) to model the distributional aggregation of a single species, in which the independence of the distribution of individuals of a species in different quadrats had been assumed. This way of analyzing aggregation will result in the scale-dependent estimation of the aggregation or shape parameter. However, because non-random (and therefore non-independent) distribution of individuals of a species in a finite area can be caused by either correlated or clumped distribution of individuals of a species between neighboring sites, an alternative model would assume that the distribution of individuals of a species over different sampling areas is multinomial. Here, we showed that, by assuming that regional species abundance followed a NBD while using a multinomial distribution to assign individuals of species in different non-overlapped sampling quadrats that are from a partition of the entire region (quantifying positive correlation or synchrony), the estimation of the shape parameter in this probabilistic model, which is the negative multinomial distribution (NMD), was scale-invariant (i.e., the estimated shape parameter is identical across different partitions of the study region). Accordingly, the estimation of the shape parameter was related to regional species distribution alone. This implied that, the shape parameter at the community level, using the NMD model, reflected the evenness of interspecific abundance. As a comparison, if the distribution of individuals of a single species followed independent NBDs as studied previously, the shape parameter would measure the evenness of intraspecific abundance (quantifying single-species' distributional aggregation). Moreover, our study highlighted the necessity for adjusting the model for the effects of unsampled species when studying community-level distributional patterns. Collectively, as long as a target area is partitioned into non-overlapping quadrats (no matter how their sizes vary), the proposed NMD model in this study, along with the independent NBDs model, can be jointly formulated as a framework to reconcile the scale-dependent debate on the shape parameter, unifying the relationship between inter- or intraspecific abundance and distributional patterns.

Effects of biotic interactions on tropical tree performance depend on abiotic conditions.

Predicting biotic responses to environmental change requires understanding the joint effects of abiotic conditions and biotic interactions on community dynamics. One major challenge is to separate the potentially confounding effects of abiotic environmental variation and local biotic interactions on individual performance. The stress gradient hypothesis (SGH) addresses this issue directly by predicting that the effects of biotic interactions on performance become more positive as the abiotic environment becomes more stressful. It is unclear, however, how the predictions of the SGH apply to plants of differing functional strategies in diverse communities. We asked (1) how the effect of crowding on performance (growth and survival) of trees varies across a precipitation gradient, and (2) how functional strategies (as measured by two key traits: wood density and leaf mass per area, LMA) mediate average demographic rates and responses to crowding across the gradient. We built trait-based neighborhood models of growth and survival across a regional precipitation gradient where increasing precipitation is associated with reduced abiotic stress. In total, our dataset comprised ~170,000 individual trees belonging to 252 species. The effect of crowding on tree performance varied across the gradient; crowding negatively affected growth across plots and positively affected survival in the wettest plot. Functional traits mediated average demographic rates across the gradient, but we did not find clear evidence that the strength of these responses depends on species' traits. Our study lends support to the SGH and demonstrates how a trait-based perspective can advance these concepts by linking the diversity of species interactions with functional variation across abiotic gradients.

Resolving the paradox of clumped seed dispersal: positive density and distance dependence in a bat-dispersed species.

One of the hypothesized benefits of seed dispersal is to escape density- and distance-responsive, host-specific, natural enemies near maternal plants where conspecific seed and seedling densities are high. Such high conspecific neighbor densities typically result in lower offspring growth and survival (i.e., negative density-dependent effects), yet many dispersal modes result in clumped seed distributions. New World leaf-nosed bats transport fruits to their feeding roosts and deposit seeds, thereby creating high-density seed/seedling patches beneath feeding roosts in heterospecific trees away from maternal trees, which seemingly nullifies a key benefit of seed dispersal. Such dispersal may still be adaptive if negative density-dependent effects are reduced under feeding roosts or if the benefit of being dispersed away from maternal trees outweighs negative effects of conspecific seed/seedling density below roosts. We mapped the entire post-germination population of a bat-dispersed tree species Calophyllum longifolium (Calophyllaceae) in a 50-ha plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama in each of three successive years. We tested two hypotheses: (1) distance-dependent effects are stronger than density-dependent effects on seedling performance because seedlings far from conspecific adults are more likely to escape natural enemies even when at high densities and (2) negative density-dependent effects will be reduced far from vs. near conspecific adults. Density and distance were naturally decoupled, as expected. However, in contrast to our expectation, we found positive density effects on seedling survival and density-dependent effects did not differ with distance from conspecific adults. Both density and distance had positive effects on seedling survival when considered together, while only year had a significant effect on seedling growth. Thus, both being dispersed under bat feeding roosts and escaping the vicinity of conspecific adults were beneficial for C. longifolium seedling survival, supporting the directed dispersal and escape hypotheses, respectively. Despite resulting in high densities of conspecific seedlings, favorable habitat under bat feeding roosts and lack of negative density-dependent effects appear to provide evolutionary advantages in C. longifolium.