Association between psoriatic disease and lifestyle factors and comorbidities: cross-sectional analysis and Mendelian randomization.

OBJECTIVES: To examine associations between PsA and psoriasis vs lifestyle factors and comorbidities by triangulating observational and genetic evidence. METHODS: We analysed cross-sectional data from the UK Biobank (1836 PsA, 8995 psoriasis, 36 000 controls) to describe the association between psoriatic disease and lifestyle factors (including BMI and smoking) and 15 comorbidities [including diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD)] using logistic models adjusted for age, sex and lifestyle factors. We applied bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) to genome-wide association data (3609 PsA and 7804 psoriasis cases, up to 1.2 million individuals for lifestyle factors and 757 601 for comorbidities) to examine causal direction, using the inverse-variance weighted method. RESULTS: BMI was cross-sectionally associated with risk of PsA (OR 1.31 per 5 kg/m2 increase; 95% CI 1.26, 1.37) and psoriasis (OR 1.23; 1.20, 1.26), with consistent MR estimates (PsA OR 1.38; 1.14, 1.67; psoriasis OR 1.36; 1.18, 1.58). In both designs, smoking was more strongly associated with psoriasis than PsA. PsA and psoriasis were cross-sectionally associated with diabetes (OR 1.35 and 1.39, respectively) and CAD (OR 1.56 and 1.38, respective). Genetically predicted glycated haemoglobin (surrogate for diabetes) increased PsA risk (OR 1.18 per 6.7 mmol/mol increase; 1.02, 1.36) but not psoriasis. Genetic liability to PsA (OR 1.05; 1.003, 1.09) and psoriasis (OR 1.03; 1.001, 1.06) were associated with increased risk of CAD. CONCLUSION: Observational and genetic evidence converge to suggest that BMI and glycaemic control are associated with increased psoriatic disease risk, while psoriatic disease is associated with increased CAD risk. Further research is needed to understand the mechanism of these associations.

Number of CAG repeats and mortality in middle aged and older men.

DESIGN: The androgen receptor (AR) mediates peripheral effects of testosterone. Previous data suggests an association between the number of CAG repeats in exon-1 of the AR gene and AR transcriptional activity. The aim of this analysis was to determine the association between the number of AR CAG repeats and all-cause mortality in men and the influence of testosterone level on the association. PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS: Follow-up data to 27 January 2018 were available for men aged 40-79 years recruited across six countries of the European Male Aging Study between 2003 and 2005. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine the association between CAG repeat number/mortality. Results were expressed as hazard ratios (HR)/95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: One thousand nine hundred and seventy-seven men were followed up. Mean baseline age was 60 ± 11.1 years. Mean duration of follow-up was 12.2 years. At follow up 25.1% of men had died. CAG repeat length ranged from 6 to 39, with the highest proportion of CAG repeat number at 21 repeats (16.4%). In a multivariable model, compared to men with 22-23 AR CAG repeats: for men with <22 and >23 AR CAG HR, 95% CI for mortality were, <22 CAG repeats 1.17 (0.93-1.49) and >23 CAG repeats 1.14 (0.88-1.47). In a post-hoc analysis, the association was significant for men in the lowest tertile of baseline testosterone (<14.2 nmol/L) with >23 CAG repeats: in the adjusted model for <22 and >23 CAG repeats, respectively, 1.49 (0.97-2.27) and 1.68 (1.06-2.67) versus 22-23 repeats. CONCLUSIONS: Our European-wide cohort data overall found no association of androgen receptor CAG repeat number and mortality in men. However, post hoc analysis suggested that an association might be present in men with lower baseline testosterone concentrations, which merits further investigation.

Does testosterone influence the association between sleep and frailty in men: results from the European Male Aging Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested an association between sleep disturbance and frailty. The mechanism is unknown, although it has been suggested that hormonal factors may play a role. METHODS: The aim was to determine the association between sleep duration, sleep quality and frailty, and to determine whether testosterone influenced this association. Males aged 40-79 years were recruited from eight European centres to the European Male Aging Study (EMAS). Subjects completed an interviewer-assisted questionnaire including questions regarding sleep quality and duration. Sleep quality was scored 0-20 and categorised as 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-20, with higher scores indicating poorer quality. A 39-component frailty index (FI) was constructed. Total testosterone levels were measured. The association between sleep duration, sleep quality and the FI was assessed using negative binomial regression, with adjustment for putative confounders including testosterone level. RESULTS: Two thousand three hundred ninety-three participants contributed data to the analysis. The mean age was 63.3 years and mean sleep duration was 7.01 h. The mean frailty index was 0.15. Mean testosterone levels declined with decreasing sleep quality. After adjustment, compared to those with a sleep score of 0-4, the FI was 57% (95% CI 38%, 78%) higher among those with a sleep score of 15-20. After adjustment compared to those with normal sleep duration (6-9 h), those with a short (< 6 h) and long (≥ 9 h) sleep duration had a 16% (95% CI 6%, 28%) and 11% (95% CI 0%, 23%) higher FI, respectively. Adjustment for testosterone did not influence the strength of either association. CONCLUSION: Frailty is associated with impaired sleep quality and sleep duration. The association cannot, however, be explained by variation in testosterone levels.

The impact of frailty on short-term mortality following primary total hip and knee arthroplasty due to osteoarthritis.

BACKGROUND: We determined the association between frailty and short-term mortality following total hip and knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA) for osteoarthritis and also the impact of THA/TKA on short-term mortality compared with a control population. METHODS: Frailty was assessed using a frailty index (categorised: fit, mild, moderate, severe frailty). The association between frailty and short-term mortality following THA/TKA was assessed using Cox regression. Mortality following THA/TKA was also compared with a control population with osteoarthritis but no previous THA/TKA, matched on year of birth, sex and quintile of index of multiple deprivation. RESULTS: A total of 103,563 cases who had a THA, 125,367 who had a TKA and matched controls contributed. Among those who had surgery, mortality increased with increasing frailty; adjusted hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) at 30 days in severely frail versus fit: following THA, 2.85 (1.84, 4.39) and following TKA, 2.14 (1.29, 3.53). The predicted probability of 30-day mortality following THA/TKA varied by age, sex and frailty: following THA, from 0.05% among fit women aged 60-64 years to 6.55% among men with severe frailty aged ≥90 years. All-cause 30-day mortality was increased in fit cases following THA and TKA, respectively, versus fit controls (adjusted HR (95% CI), 1.60 (1.15, 2.21) and 2.98 (1.81, 4.89)), though not among cases with mild, moderate or severe frailty versus controls in the same frailty category. CONCLUSION: Short-term mortality increased with increasing frailty following THA/TKA. Comparison of mortality among cases and controls may be affected by a 'healthy surgery' selection effect.

The impact of frailty on patient-reported outcomes following hip and knee arthroplasty.

AIM: to determine the impact of frailty on patient-reported outcomes following hip and knee arthroplasty. METHODS: we used linked primary and secondary care electronic health records. Frailty was assessed using the electronic frailty index (categorised: fit, mild, moderate, severe frailty). We determined the association between frailty category and post-operative Oxford hip/knee score (OHS/OKS) using Tobit regression. We calculated the proportion of patients in each frailty category who achieved the minimally important change (MIC) in OHS (≥8 points) and OKS (≥7 points) and the proportion who reported a successful outcome (hip/knee problems either 'much better' or 'a little better' following surgery). RESULTS: About 42,512 people who had a hip arthroplasty and 49,208 who had a knee arthroplasty contributed data. In a Tobit model adjusted for pre-operative OHS/OKS, age, sex and quintile of index of multiple deprivation, increasing frailty was associated with decreasing post-operative OHS and OKS, respectively, ß-coefficient (95% CI) in severely frail versus fit, -6.97 (-7.44, -6.49) and - 5.88 (-6.28, -5.47). The proportion of people who achieved the MIC in OHS and OKS, respectively, decreased from 92 and 86% among fit individuals to 84 and 78% among those with severe frailty. Patient-reported success following hip and knee arthroplasty, respectively, decreased from 97 and 93% among fit individuals to 90 and 83% among those with severe frailty. CONCLUSION: frailty adversely impacts on patient-reported outcomes following hip and knee arthroplasty. However, even among those with severe frailty, the large majority achieved the MIC in OHS/OKS and reported a successful outcome.

Incidence of Paget's disease of bone in the UK: evidence of a continuing decline.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize the incidence of clinically diagnosed Paget's disease of bone in the UK during 1999-2015 and to determine variations in the incidence of disease by age, sex, geography and level of deprivation. METHODS: Incident cases of Paget's disease occurring between 1999 and 2015 were identified from primary care records. Overall crude incidence and incidence stratified by age and sex was calculated each year from 1999 to 2015. Direct age- and sex-standardized incidence was also calculated. We used Poisson regression to look at variations in incidence by deprivation and UK region. RESULTS: A total of 3592 incident cases of Paget's disease were identified between 1999 and 2015. Incidence increased with age and at all ages was greater in men than women. In women and men, respectively, crude incidence increased from 0.037 and 0.074/10 000 population per year among those 45-49 years of age to 3.7 and 6.3/10 000 population per year among those ≥85 years. The overall standardized incidence decreased from 0.75/10 000 person-years in 1999 to 0.20/10 000 person-years in 2015. After adjustment for age and sex, incidence was >30% higher in the most- compared with least-deprived quintile of deprivation. There was evidence of geographic variation, with the highest incidence in the North West of England, which persisted after adjustment for age, sex and level of deprivation. CONCLUSION: The incidence of clinically diagnosed Paget's disease has continued to decrease since 1999. The reason for the decline in incidence remains unknown, although the rapidity of change points to an alteration in one or more environmental determinants.

The prevalence of co-morbidities and their impact on physical activity in people with inflammatory rheumatic diseases compared with the general population: results from the UK Biobank.

Objectives: To compare the prevalence and incidence of chronic co-morbidities in people with inflammatory rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (iRMDs), and to determine whether the prevalent co-morbidities are associated with physical activity levels in people with iRMDs and in those without iRMDs. Methods: Participants were recruited to the UK Biobank; a population-based cohort. Data were collected about demographics, physical activity, iRMDs (RA, PsA, AS, SLE) and other chronic conditions, including angina, myocardial infarction, stroke, hypertension, pulmonary disease, diabetes and depression. The standardized prevalence of co-morbidities in people with iRMDs was calculated. Cox regression was used to determine the relationship between the presence of an iRMD and an incident co-morbidity. The relationship between the presence (versus absence) of a (co-)morbidity and physical activity level (low, moderate, high) in people with iRMDs and in those without was assessed using multinomial logistic regression. Results: A total of 488 991 participants were included. The estimated prevalence of each co-morbidity was increased in participants with an iRMD, compared with in those without, particularly for stroke in participants with SLE (standardized morbidity ratio (95% CI), 4.9 (3.6, 6.6). Compared with people with no iRMD and no morbidity, the odds ratios (95% CI) for moderate physical activity were decreased for: no iRMD and morbidity, 0.87 (0.85, 0.89); iRMD and no co-morbidity, 0.71 (0.64, 0.80); and iRMD and co-morbidity, 0.58 (0.54, 0.63). Conclusion: Having a (co-)morbidity is associated with reduced physical activity in the general population, and to a greater extent in participants with an iRMD. Optimal management of both iRMDs and co-morbidities may help to reduce their impact on physical activity.

Towards optimisation of surface enhanced photodynamic therapy of breast cancer cells using gold nanoparticle-photosensitiser conjugates.

Gold nanoparticles (AuNPs; ca. 4 nm) were synthesised and functionalised with a mixed monolayer of polyethylene glycol (PEG) and one of two zinc phthalocyanines (ZnPcs), the difference between the two molecules was the length of the carbon chain that connects the Pc to the gold core. The chain was composed of either three (C3Pc) or eleven (C11Pc) carbon atoms. The C11Pc photosensitiser displayed higher fluorescence emission intensity than the C3Pc in solution. By contrast, the C3Pc photosensitiser exhibited higher fluorescence when bound to the surface of the AuNPs than the C11Pc, despite the shorter carbon chain which was expected to quench the fluorescence. In addition, the C3Pc nanoparticle conjugates exhibited an enhancement in the production of singlet oxygen (1O2). The metal-enhanced 1O2 production led to a remarkable photodynamic efficacy for the treatment of human breast cancer cells.

Frailty and bone health in European men.

Background: frailty is associated with an increased risk of fragility fractures. Less is known, however, about the association between frailty and bone health. Methods: men aged 40-79 years were recruited from population registers in eight European centres for participation in the European Male Aging Study. Subjects completed a comprehensive assessment which included quantitative ultrasound (QUS) scan of the heel (Hologic-SAHARA) and in two centres, dual-energy bone densitometry (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, DXA). Frailty was defined based on an adaptation of Fried's phenotype criteria and a frailty index (FI) was constructed. The association between frailty and the QUS and DXA parameters was determined using linear regression, with adjustments for age, body mass index and centre. Results: in total, 3,231 subjects contributed data to the analysis. Using the Fried categorisation of frailty, pre-frail and frail men had significantly lower speed of sound (SOS), broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) and quantitative ultrasound index (QUI) compared to robust men (P< 0.05). Similar results were seen using the FI after categorisation into 'high', 'medium' and 'low' levels of frailty. Using the Fried categorisation, frail men had lower femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) compared to robust men (P < 0.05), but not lower lumbar spine BMD. Using the FI categorisation, a 'high' level of frailty (FI > 0.35) was associated with lower lumbar spine BMD (P < 0.05) when compared to those with low (FI < 0.2), but not lower femoral neck BMD. When analysed as a continuous variable, higher FI was linked with lower SOS, BUA and QUI (P < 0.05). Conclusions: optimisation of bone health as well as prevention of falls should be considered as strategies to reduce fractures in frail older people.

Predictors and outcomes of sustained, intermittent or never achieving remission in patients with recent onset inflammatory polyarthritis: results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register.

OBJECTIVES: Early remission is the current treatment strategy for patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) and RA. Our objective was to identify baseline factors associated with achieving remission: sustained (SR), intermittent (IR) or never (NR) over a 5-year period in patients with early IP. METHODS: Clinical and demographic data of patients with IP recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) were obtained at baseline and years 1, 2, 3 and 5. Remission was defined as no tender or swollen joints (out of 51). Patients were classified as NR or PR, respectively, if they were in remission at: no assessment or ⩾3 consecutive assessments after baseline, and IR otherwise. Ordinal regression and a random effects model, respectively, were used to examine the association between baseline factors, remission group and HAQ scores over time. RESULTS: A total of 868 patients (66% female) were included. Of these, 54%, 34% and 12% achieved NR, IR and SR, respectively. In multivariate analysis, female sex (odds ratio, OR 0.47, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.63), higher tender joint count (OR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.93, 0.96), higher HAQ (OR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.48, 0.74), being obese (OR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.99), hypertensive (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.90) or depressed (OR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.55, 1.00) at baseline were independent predictors of being in a lower remission group. IR and SR were associated with lower HAQ scores over time and lower DAS28 at year 5. CONCLUSION: Women with higher tender joint count and disability at baseline, depression, obesity and hypertension were less likely to achieve remission. This information could help when stratifying patients for more aggressive therapy.

Delivery of a hydrophobic phthalocyanine photosensitizer using PEGylated gold nanoparticle conjugates for the in vivo photodynamic therapy of amelanotic melanoma.

Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a treatment of cancer whereby tumours are destroyed by reactive oxygen species generated upon photoactivation of a photosensitizer drug. Hydrophobic photosensitizers are known to be ideal for PDT; however, their hydrophobicity necessitates that they are typically administered using emulsions. Here, a delivery vehicle for photodynamic therapy based on the co-self-assembly of both a Zn(ii)-phthalocyanine derivative photosensitizer and a polyethylene glycol (PEG) derivative onto gold nanoparticles is reported. The PEG on the particle surface ensured that the conjugates were water soluble and enhanced their retention in the serum, improving the efficiency of PDT in vivo. The pharmacokinetic behaviour of the nanoparticle conjugates following intravenous injection into C57/BL6 mice bearing a subcutaneous transplanted B78H1 amelanotic melanoma showed a significant increase of retention of the nanoparticles in the tumour. PDT tumour destruction was achieved 3 h following injection of the nanoparticle conjugates leading to a remarkable 40% of the treated mice showing no tumour regrowth and complete survival. These results highlight that dual functionalised nanoparticles exhibit significant potential in PDT of cancer especially for difficult to treat cancers such as amelanotic melanoma.

Upgrade of MacCHESS facility for X-ray scattering of biological macromolecules in solution.

X-ray scattering of biological macromolecules in solution is an increasingly popular tool for structural biology and benefits greatly from modern high-brightness synchrotron sources. The upgraded MacCHESS BioSAXS station is now located at the 49-pole wiggler beamline G1. The 20-fold improved flux over the previous beamline F2 provides higher sample throughput and autonomous X-ray scattering data collection using a unique SAXS/WAXS dual detectors configuration. This setup achieves a combined q-range from 0.007 to 0.7 Å(-1), enabling better characterization of smaller molecules, while opening opportunities for emerging wide-angle scattering methods. In addition, a facility upgrade of the positron storage ring to continuous top-up mode has improved beam stability and eliminated beam drift over the course of typical BioSAXS experiments. Single exposure times have been reduced to 2 s for 3.560 mg ml(-1) lysozyme with an average quality factor I/σ of 20 in the Guinier region. A novel disposable plastic sample cell design that incorporates lower background X-ray window material provides users with a more pristine sample environment than previously available. Systematic comparisons of common X-ray window materials bonded to the cell have also been extended to the wide-angle regime, offering new insight into best choices for various q-space ranges. In addition, a quantitative assessment of signal-to-noise levels has been performed on the station to allow users to estimate necessary exposure times for obtaining usable signals in the Guinier regime. Users also have access to a new BioSAXS sample preparation laboratory which houses essential wet-chemistry equipment and biophysical instrumentation. User experiments at the upgraded BioSAXS station have been on-going since commissioning of the beamline in Summer 2013. A planned upgrade of the G1 insertion device to an undulator for the Winter 2014 cycle is expected to further improve flux by an order of magnitude.

Cancer targeting with biomolecules: a comparative study of photodynamic therapy efficacy using antibody or lectin conjugated phthalocyanine-PEG gold nanoparticles.

The functionalisation of therapeutic nanoparticle constructs with cancer-specific biomolecules can enable selective tumour accumulation and targeted treatment. Water soluble gold nanoparticles (ca. 4 nm) stabilised by a mixed monolayer of a hydrophobic zinc phthalocyanine photosensitiser (C11Pc) and hydrophilic polyethylene glycol (PEG) have been prepared. The C11Pc-PEG gold nanoparticle constructs were further functionalised with jacalin, a lectin specific for the cancer-associated Thomsen-Friedenreich (T) carbohydrate antigen, or with monoclonal antibodies specific for the human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER-2). The two biofunctionalised nanoparticle conjugates produced similar levels of singlet oxygen upon irradiation at 633 nm. Importantly, both nanoparticle conjugates demonstrated extensive, yet comparable, phototoxicity in HT-29 colorectal adenocarcinoma cells (80-90%) and in SK-BR-3 breast adenocarcinoma cells (>99%). Non-conjugated C11Pc-PEG gold nanoparticles were only minimally phototoxic. Lysosomal colocalisation studies performed with the HT-29 colon cancer cells and the SK-BR-3 breast cancer cells revealed that both nanoparticle conjugates were partially localised within acidic organelles, which is typical of receptor-mediated endocytosis. The similarity of the targeted PDT efficacy of the two biofunctionalised C11Pc-PEG gold nanoparticles is discussed with respect to targeting ligand binding affinity and cell surface antigen density as key determinants of targeting efficiency. This study highlights how targeting small cell-surface molecules, such as the T antigen, can mediate a selective photodynamic treatment response which is similar to that achieved when targeting overexpressed protein receptors, such as HER-2. The high prevalence of the T antigen present on the cellular surface of primary tumours emphasises the broad potential applications for lectin-targeted therapies.

Tetrabenzoporphyrin and -mono-, -cis-di- and Tetrabenzotriazaporphyrin Derivatives: Electrochemical and Spectroscopic Implications of meso CH Group Replacement with Nitrogen.

Nonperipherally hexyl-substituted metal-free tetrabenzoporphyrin (2H-TBP, 1a) tetrabenzomonoazaporphyrin (2H-TBMAP, 2a), tetrabenzo-cis-diazaporphyrin (2H-TBDAP, 3a), tetrabenzotriazaporphyrin (2H-TBTAP, 4a), and phthalocyanine (2H-Pc, 5a), as well as their copper complexes (1b-5b), were synthesized. As the number of meso nitrogen atoms increases from zero to four, λmax of the Q-band absorption peak becomes red-shifted by almost 100 nm, and extinction coefficients increased at least threefold. Simultaneously the blue-shifted Soret (UV) band substantially decreased in intensity. These changes were related to the relative electron-density of each macrocycle expressed as the group electronegativity sum of all meso N and CH atom groups, ∑χR. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy differentiated between the three different types of macrocyclic nitrogen atoms (the Ninner, (NH)inner, and Nmeso) in the metal-free complexes. Binding energies of the Nmeso and Ninner,Cu atoms in copper chelates could not be resolved. Copper insertion lowered especially the cathodic redox potentials, while all four observed redox processes occurred at larger potentials as the number of meso nitrogens increased. Computational chemical methods using density functional theory confirmed 1b to exhibit a Cu(II) reduction prior to ring-based reductions, while for 2b, Cu(II) reduction is the first reductive step only if the nonperipheral substituents are hydrogen. When they are methyl groups, it is the second reduction process; when they are ethyl, propyl, or hexyl, it becomes the third reductive process. Spectro-electrochemical measurements showed redox processes were associated with a substantial change in intensity of at least two main absorbances (the Q and Soret bands) in the UV spectra of these compounds.

Late-stage borreliosis and substance abuse.

Background: Infectious diseases can contribute to substance abuse. Here, a fatal case of borreliosis and substance abuse is reported. This patient had a history of multiple tick bites and increasing multisystem symptoms, yet diagnosis and treatment were delayed. He experimented with multiple substances including phencyclidine (PCP), an N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonist that opposes NMDA agonism caused by Borrelia infection. During PCP withdrawal, he committed one homicide, two assaults, and suicide. Methods: Brain tissue was obtained from autopsy and stained for microglial activation and quinolinic acid (QA). Immunoflouresence (IFA) and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) were used to identify the presence of pathogens in autopsy tissue. Results: Autopsy tissue evaluation demonstrated Borrelia in the pancreas by IFA and heart by IFA and FISH. Activated microglia and QA were found in the brain, indicating neuroinflammation. It is postulated that PCP withdrawal may exacerbate symptoms produced by Borrelia-induced biochemical imbalances in the brain. This combination may have greatly increased his acute homicidal and suicidal risk. Patient databases also demonstrated the risk of homicide or suicide in patients diagnosed with borreliosis and confirmed multiple symptoms in these patients, including chronic pain, anxiety, and anhedonia. Conclusions: Late-stage borreliosis is associated with multiple symptoms that may contribute to an increased risk of substance abuse and addictive disorders. More effective diagnosis and treatment of borreliosis, and attention to substance abuse potential may help reduce associated morbidity and mortality in patients with borreliosis, particularly in endemic areas.

A Novel and Accurate Method for Estimating Deaths and Cases During Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases Including COVID-19.

Introduction: Epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases plays an important role in driving public health policy. Commonly used models are described, including those based on exponential growth (Laplace and related distributions); susceptible-infected-removed; the Gompertz distribution; and the skew-reflected-Gompertz distribution. These are all sensitive to the timing of peak infection. The development of a novel method for forecasting the number of deaths occurring during epidemics of infectious diseases is described. Methods: The mathematical development of the authors' novel asymmetric difference model is detailed in this paper. Its predictions for mortality rates associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for 14 countries were compared with the corresponding published mortality data. Results: Forecasts by the asymmetric difference model of deaths from SARS-CoV-2 in different countries, actual recorded deaths to 30th June 2020, and corresponding errors included UK (42,700; 55,904; -24%); Poland (1490; 1444; +3%); Denmark (580; 605; -4%); Netherlands (6510; 6189; +5%); France (34,280; 29,836; +15%); Canada (1500; 8591; -78%); USA (44,540; 124,734; -64%); and Italy (22,020; 34,980; -37%). The model output was dependent upon forecast date accuracy for the peak of the disease outbreak. For Spain, the forecast date was one day early and for 10 (71%) countries the forecast peak occurred within seven days (inclusive) of the actual date. Discussion: Mortality prediction by the asymmetric difference model is relatively accurate. Furthermore, this new model does not appear to be as unduly sensitive to the timing of peak infection as other models. Indeed, its prediction of peak infection also appears to be relatively accurate.

Synthesis, characterization, MCD spectroscopy, and TD-DFT calculations of copper-metalated nonperipherally substituted octaoctyl derivatives of tetrabenzotriazaporphyrin, cis- and trans-tetrabenzodiazaporphyrin, tetrabenzomonoazaporphyrin, and tetrabenzoporphyrin.

Synthesis of the title compounds has been achieved through refinement of a recently reported synthetic protocol whereby varying equivalents of MeMgBr are reacted with 1,4-dioctylphthalonitrile to produce mixtures favoring specific hybrid structures. The initially formed magnesium-metalated compounds are obtained as pure materials and include, for the first time, both isomers (cis and trans) of tetrabenzodiazaporphyrin. The compounds were demetalated to the metal-free analogues, which were then converted into the copper-metalated derivatives. The X-ray structure of the copper tetrabenzotriazaporphyrin derivative is reported. The metal-free and copper-metalated macrocycles exhibit columnar mesophase behavior, and it is found that the mesophase stability is unexpectedly reduced in the diazaporphyrin derivatives compared to the rest of the series. The results of time-dependent density functional theory calculations for the copper complexes are compared to the observed optical properties. Michl's perimeter model was used as a conceptual framework for analyzing the magnetic circular dichroism spectral data, which predicted and accounted for trends in the observed experimental spectra.

Increased Frailty in Individuals With Osteoarthritis and Rheumatoid Arthritis and the Influence of Comorbidity: An Analysis of the UK Biobank Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between osteoarthritis (OA), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and frailty and to determine whether comorbidities interact with OA and RA to further increase the likelihood of frailty. METHODS: Participants of the UK Biobank age 40-69 years at baseline were included. Demographic, lifestyle, and clinical data were collected at baseline and follow-up in a subset. Frailty was assessed using a frailty index (FI) (continuous) and a modified frailty phenotype (robust, pre-frail, frail). The association between RA and OA and frailty at baseline and follow-up was assessed using multiple regression models. We looked at whether comorbidities, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and depression interacted additively with OA and RA to increase the likelihood of frailty. RESULTS: In total, 457,561 participants contributed data. Those with (versus without) RA (n = 4,894) and OA (n = 35,884), respectively, were more likely to be frail (adjusted relative risk ratio 10.7 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 9.7, 11.7] and 3.4 [95% CI 3.3, 3.6]) and were more likely to have a higher FI at baseline. There was evidence of additive interaction between RA, OA, and common comorbidities increasing the occurrence of prevalent frailty. Among 25,163 participants included in longitudinal analysis, patients with RA (n = 202) and OA (n = 1,811) at baseline had an increased adjusted frailty incidence rate ratio (2.8 [95% CI 1.7, 4.6] and 1.7 [95% CI 1.3, 2.1], respectively) and also a higher FI during follow-up. CONCLUSION: Individuals with RA and OA are more likely to have, or develop, frailty. Common comorbidities interact with OA and RA to further increase the likelihood of frailty.

The association between lower socioeconomic position and functional limitations is partially mediated by obesity in older adults with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis: Findings from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

Objective: To assess the longitudinal associations of socioeconomic position (SEP) with functional limitations and knee joint replacement surgery (JRS) in people with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA), and whether body mass index (BMI) mediated these relationships. Methods: Data came from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a national longitudinal panel study of adults aged ≥50 years. A total of 1,499 participants (62.3% female; mean age 66.5 (standard deviation (SD) 9.4) years; 47.4% obese) self-reporting an OA diagnosis and knee pain, with at least one BMI measurement were included. Mixed effect models estimated longitudinal associations of each SEP variable (education, occupation, income, wealth and deprivation index) and obesity (BMI ≥30.0 kg/m2) with repeated measures of functional limitations. Cox regression analyses estimated associations between SEP indicators and obesity at baseline and risk of knee JRS at follow-up. Structural equation modeling estimated any mediating effects of BMI on these relationships. Results: Lower SEP and obesity at baseline were associated with increased odds of functional limitations in people with knee OA [e.g., difficulty walking 100 yards: no qualification vs. degree adjOR 4.33 (95% CI 2.20, 8.55) and obesity vs. no obesity adjOR 3.06 (95% CI 2.14, 4.37); similar associations were found for the other SEP indicators]. A small proportion of the association between lower SEP and functional limitations could be explained by BMI (6.2-12.5%). Those with lower income, lower wealth and higher deprivation were less likely to have knee JRS [e.g., adjHR most vs. least deprived 0.37 (95% CI 0.19, 0.73)]; however, no clear association was found for education and occupation. Obesity was associated with increased hazards of having knee JRS [adjHR 1.87 (95% CI 1.32, 2.66)]. As the direction of the associations for SEP and obesity with knee JRS were in opposite directions, no mediation analyses were performed. Conclusions: Lower SEP was associated with increased odds of functional limitations but lower hazards of knee JRS among people with knee OA, potentially indicating underutilization of JRS in those with lower SEP. Obesity partially mediated the relationship between lower SEP and increased odds of functional limitations, suggesting adiposity as a potential interventional target.

Microcrystallography, high-pressure cryocooling and BioSAXS at MacCHESS.

The Macromolecular Diffraction Facility at the Cornell High Energy Synchrotron Source (MacCHESS) is a national research resource supported by the National Center for Research Resources of the US National Institutes of Health. MacCHESS is pursuing several research initiatives designed to benefit both CHESS users and the wider structural biology community. Three initiatives are presented in further detail: microcrystallography, which aims to improve the collection of diffraction data from crystals a few micrometers across, or small well diffracting regions of inhomogeneous crystals, so as to obtain high-resolution structures; pressure cryocooling, which can stabilize transient structures and reduce lattice damage during the cooling process; and BioSAXS (small-angle X-ray scattering on biological solutions), which can extract molecular shape and other structural information from macromolecules in solution.