Risk factors predicting the need for intensive care unit admission within forty-eight hours of emergency department presentation: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Patients admitted from the emergency department to the wards, who progress to a critically unwell state, may require expeditious admission to the intensive care unit. It can be argued that earlier recognition of such patients, to facilitate prompt transfer to intensive care, could be linked to more favourable clinical outcomes. Nevertheless, this can be clinically challenging, and there are currently no established evidence-based methods for predicting the need for intensive care in the future. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to analyse the emergency department data to describe the characteristics of patients who required an intensive care admission within 48 h of presentation. Secondly, we planned to test the feasibility of using this data to identify the associated risk factors for developing a predictive model. METHODS: We designed a retrospective case-control study. Cases were patients admitted to intensive care within 48 h of their emergency department presentation. Controls were patients who did not need an intensive care admission. Groups were matched based on age, gender, admission calendar month, and diagnosis. To identify the associated variables, we used a conditional logistic regression model. RESULTS: Compared to controls, cases were more likely to be obese, and smokers and had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular (39 [35.1%] vs 20 [18%], p = 0.004) and respiratory diagnoses (45 [40.5%] vs 25 [22.5%], p = 0.004). They received more medical emergency team reviews (53 [47.8%] vs 24 [21.6%], p < 0.001), and more patients had an acute resuscitation plan (31 [27.9%] vs 15 [13.5%], p = 0.008). The predictive model showed that having acute resuscitation plans, cardiovascular and respiratory diagnoses, and receiving medical emergency team reviews were strongly associated with having an intensive care admission within 48 h of presentation. CONCLUSIONS: Our study used emergency department data to provide a detailed description of patients who had an intensive care unit admission within 48 h of their presentation. It demonstrated the feasibility of using such data to identify the associated risk factors to develop a predictive model.

Citizen science as a tool for arboviral vector surveillance in a resourced-constrained setting: results of a pilot study in Honiara, Solomon Islands, 2019.

BACKGROUND: Recent arboviral disease outbreaks highlight the value a better understanding of the spread of disease-carrying mosquitoes across spatial-temporal scales can provide. Traditional surveillance tools are limited by jurisdictional boundaries, workforce constraints, logistics, and cost; factors that in low- and middle-income countries often conspire to undermine public health protection efforts. To overcome these, we undertake a pilot study designed to explore if citizen science provides a feasible strategy for arboviral vector surveillance in small developing Pacific island contexts. METHODS: We recruited, trained, and equipped community volunteers to trap and type mosquitos within their household settings, and to report count data to a central authority by short-message-service. Mosquito catches were independently assessed to measure participants' mosquito identification accuracy. Other data were collected to measure the frequency and stability of reporting, and volunteers' experiences. RESULTS: Participants collected data for 78.3% of the study period, and agreement between the volunteer citizen scientists' and the reviewing entomologist's mosquito identification was 94%. Opportunity to contribute to a project of social benefit, the chance to learn new skills, and the frequency of engagement with project staff were prime motivators for participation. Unstable electricity supply (required to run the trap's fan), insufficient personal finances (to buy electricity and phone credit), and inconvenience were identified as barriers to sustained participation. CONCLUSIONS: While there are challenges to address, our findings suggest that citizen science offers an opportunity to overcome the human resource constraints that conspire to limit health authorities' capacity to monitor arboviral vectors across populations. We note that the success of citizen science-based surveillance is dependent on the appropriate selection of equipment and participants, and the quality of engagement and support provided.

Surveillance strategies for the detection of disease outbreaks in the Pacific islands: meta-analysis of published literature, 2010-2019.

OBJECTIVE: Due to their tropical location, development status and the limited capacity of health systems, Pacific island counties and territories are particularly susceptible to infectious disease outbreaks; but evidence as to the optimal way in which outbreaks are detected is scarce. In this review, we synthesise evidence from literature about how outbreaks are detected in Pacific island countries and territories and critique factors identified as inhibiting surveillance practice. METHOD: For this systematic review, we searched electronic databases Embase, Global Health, MEDLINE and MEDLINE Epub from 1 January 2010 and 31 March 2019 for reports describing infectious disease outbreaks occurring in the Pacific islands. Reports were included if they reported the method by which an outbreak was detected or the time between an outbreak's onset and its detection. We extracted information about the report type and authors, the outbreak and its method/s of detection, and pertinent issues inhibiting surveillance practice. RESULTS: Of 860 articles identified, 37 reports describing 39 outbreaks met the inclusion criteria. Most outbreaks (n = 30) were identified through formal event-based surveillance; six through syndromic surveillance; and two by ad hoc notification from the community. Barriers to early outbreak detection included population isolation; lack of resources and infrastructure to support surveillance implementation and signal investigation; and broader health system factors such as preparedness planning and availability of laboratory services. CONCLUSION: Most surveillance-related gain in the Pacific islands may be made through building formal event-based surveillance systems and streamlining reporting processes to facilitate outbreak notification. This observation is pertinent given the focus on establishing and expanding syndromic surveillance approaches for outbreak detection in the islands over the last decade.

OBJECTIF: En raison de leur situation tropicale, de leur état de développement et de la capacité limitée des systèmes de santé, les comtés et territoires des îles du Pacifique sont particulièrement sensibles aux épidémies de maladies infectieuses, mais les données quant à la manière optimale de détecter les épidémies sont rares. Dans cette étude, nous synthétisons les données de la littérature sur la manière dont les épidémies sont détectées dans les pays et territoires des îles du Pacifique et les facteurs critiques identifiés comme entravant la pratique de la surveillance. MÉTHODE: Pour cette analyse systématique, nous avons recherché dans les bases de données électroniques Embase, Global Health, MEDLINE et MEDLINE Epub du 1er janvier 2010 et du 31 mars 2019 pour des rapports décrivant les épidémies de maladies infectieuses survenant dans les îles du Pacifique. Les rapports ont été inclus s'ils indiquaient la méthode de détection d'une épidémie ou le délai entre le début d'une épidémie et sa détection. Nous avons extrait les informations sur le type de rapport et les auteurs, l'épidémie et sa ou ses méthodes de détection, ainsi que les problèmes pertinents qui entravent la pratique de la surveillance. RÉSULTATS: Sur les 860 articles identifiés, 37 rapports décrivant 39 ménages ont satisfait aux critères d'inclusion. La plupart des épidémies (n = 30) ont été identifiés suite à une surveillance formelle basée sur les événements, six suite à une surveillance syndromique et deux suite à une notification ad-hoc de la communauté. Les obstacles à la détection précoce des épidémies comprennent l'isolement de la population, le manque de ressources et d'infrastructures pour soutenir la mise en œuvre de la surveillance et l'investigation des signaux, ainsi que des facteurs plus généraux du système de santé tels que la planification de la préparation et la disponibilité des services de laboratoire. CONCLUSION: La plupart des gains liés à la surveillance dans les îles du Pacifique peuvent être réalisés par la mise en place de systèmes de surveillance formels basés sur les événements et l'aiguillage des processus de report pour faciliter la notification des épidémies. Cette observation est pertinente étant donné l'accent mis sur l'établissement et l'expansion des approches de surveillance syndromique pour la détection des épidémies dans les îles au cours de la dernière décennie.

A severe diarrhoeal outbreak in a remote Pacific island community, Anuta Island, Solomon Islands, April-June 2019.

CONTEXT: Solomon Islands is a small developing island state located in the south-western Pacific Ocean. A population of approximately 680 000 people live on more than one-third of the 992 islands that make up the country. Approximately 80% of the population reside in rural areas, many in remote, difficult to reach and poorly serviced island settings. ISSUE: In May 2019, the national surveillance system detected a rumour of a severe diarrhoea outbreak in a very remote and isolated community on Anuta Island, located halfway between the Solomon Islands archipelago and Tuvalu. This communication reports on the investigation and response to the outbreak, which affected 50 people (attack rate of 21.5%) and caused four deaths (case fatality rate of 8%). The authors highlight the system challenges faced in mounting the response and provide suggestions that may help overcome them. LESSONS LEARNED: The outbreak highlighted the challenges in detecting and responding to outbreaks in remote and rural areas of the Pacific Islands, and the limitations of rumour surveillance as a relied-upon surveillance strategy. The outbreak emphasises the need to build local capacity to detect, report and respond to outbreaks and the need for policy frameworks that ensure remote communities receive adequate health protection services.

Epidemic surveillance in a low resource setting: lessons from an evaluation of the Solomon Islands syndromic surveillance system, 2017.

BACKGROUND: Solomon Islands is one of the least developed countries in the world. Recognising that timely detection of outbreaks is needed to enable early and effective response to disease outbreaks, the Solomon Islands government introduced a simple syndromic surveillance system in 2011. We conducted the first evaluation of the system and the first exploration of a national experience within the broader multi-country Pacific Syndromic Surveillance System to determine if it is meeting its objectives and to identify opportunities for improvement. METHODS: We used a multi-method approach involving retrospective data collection and statistical analysis, modelling, qualitative research and observational methods. RESULTS: We found that the system was well accepted, highly relied upon and designed to account for contextual limitations. We found the syndromic algorithm used to identify outbreaks was moderately sensitive, detecting 11.8% (IQR: 6.3-25.0%), 21.3% (IQR: 10.3-36.8%), 27.5% (IQR: 12.8-52.3%) and 40.5% (IQR: 13.5-65.7%) of outbreaks that caused small, moderate, large and very large increases in case presentations to health facilities, respectively. The false alert rate was 10.8% (IQR: 4.8-24.5%). Rural coverage of the system was poor. Limited workforce, surveillance resourcing and other 'upstream' health system factors constrained performance. CONCLUSIONS: The system has made a significant contribution to public health security in Solomon Islands, but remains insufficiently sensitive to detect small-moderate sized outbreaks and hence should not be relied upon as a stand-alone surveillance strategy. Rather, the system should sit within a complementary suite of early warning surveillance activities including event-based, in-patient- and laboratory-based surveillance methods. Future investments need to find a balance between actions to address the technical and systems issues that constrain performance while maintaining simplicity and hence sustainability.

Towards effective outbreak detection: a qualitative study to identify factors affecting nurses' early warning surveillance practice in Solomon Islands.

BACKGROUND: Intelligence generated by a surveillance system is dependent on the quality of data that are collected. We investigated the knowledge, attitudes and practices of nurses responsible for outbreak early warning surveillance data collection in Solomon Islands to identify factors that influence their ability to perform surveillance-related tasks with rigour. METHODS: We interviewed 12 purposively selected surveillance nurses and conducted inductive analysis on resulting data. RESULTS: Interviewees were knowledgeable and willing to contribute to the surveillance system. Constraining factors included the perception that surveillance was less important than patient care and could be 'deferred' during busy periods and wide variability in the application of case definitions. Motivating factors were frequent in-clinic training, formal recognition for good performance, incentives and designation of a focal point. Nurses held mixed views about the effect of mobile technologies on surveillance practice. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified several challenges to consistent and accurate data collection and reporting. Engagement of different parts of the health system, including human resources and health facilities' management, is needed to address these challenges.

Acute flaccid paralysis incidence and Zika virus surveillance, Pacific Islands.

PROBLEM: The emergence of Zika virus has challenged outbreak surveillance systems in many at-risk, low-resource countries. As the virus has been linked with Guillain-Barré syndrome, routine data on the incidence of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) may provide a useful early warning system for the emergence of Zika virus. APPROACH: We documented all Zika virus outbreaks and cases in 21 Pacific Islands and territories for the years 2007 to 2015. We extracted data from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative database on the reported and expected annual incidence of AFP in children younger than 15 years. Using a Poisson probability test, we tested the significance of unexpected increases in AFP in years correlating with Zika virus emergence. Data were analysed separately for each Pacific Island country and territory. LOCAL SETTING: In most Pacific Island countries, early warning surveillance for acute public health threats such as Zika virus is hampered by poor health infrastructure, insufficient human resources and geographical isolation. RELEVANT CHANGES: Only one example was found (Solomon Islands in 2015) of a significant increase in reported AFP cases correlating with Zika virus emergence. LESSONS LEARNT: We found no conclusive evidence that routinely reported AFP incidence data in children were useful for detecting emergence of Zika virus in this setting. More evidence may be needed from adult populations, who are more likely to be affected by Guillain-Barré syndrome. Reporting of AFP may be deficient in regions certified as polio-free.

Early warning epidemic surveillance in the Pacific island nations: an evaluation of the Pacific syndromic surveillance system.

OBJECTIVE: The Pacific Syndromic Surveillance System (PSSS), launched in 2010, provides a simple mechanism by which 121 sentinel surveillance sites in 21 Pacific island countries and areas perform routine indicator- and event-based surveillance for the early detection of infectious disease outbreaks. This evaluation aims to assess whether the PSSS is meeting its objectives, what progress has been made since a formative evaluation of the system was conducted in 2011, and provides recommendations to enhance the PSSS's performance in the future. METHODS: Twenty-one informant interviews were conducted with national operators of the system and regional public health agencies that use information generated by it. Historic PSSS data were analysed to assess timeliness and completeness of reporting. RESULTS: The system is simple, acceptable and useful for public health decision-makers. The PSSS has greatly enhanced Pacific island countries' ability to undertake early warning surveillance and has contributed to efforts to meet national surveillance-related International Health Regulation (2005) capacity development obligations. Despite this, issues with timeliness and completeness of reporting, data quality and system stability persist. CONCLUSION: A balance between maintaining the system's simplicity and technical advances will need to be found to ensure its long-term sustainability, given the low-resource context for which it is designed.

Understanding how neglected tropical diseases programs in five Asia-Pacific countries adjusted to the COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Following the COVID-19 pandemic declaration, the World Health Organization recommended suspending neglected tropical diseases (NTD) control activities as part of sweeping strategies to minimise COVID-19 transmission. Understanding how NTD programs were impacted and resumed operations will inform contingency planning for future emergencies. This is the first study that documents how South-East Asian and Pacific NTD programs addressed challenges experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data was collected through semi-structured interviews with 11 NTD Program Coordinators and related personnel from Fiji, Papua New Guinea, The Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Vanuatu. Constructivist grounded theory methods were drawn on to generate an explanation of factors that enabled or hindered NTD program operations during the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted NTD programs in all countries. Some programs implemented novel strategies by partnering with services deemed essential or used new communications technology to continue (albeit scaled-back) NTD activities. Strong relationships to initiate cross-program integration, sufficient resources to implement adapted activities, and dedicated administrative systems were key enabling factors for recommencement. As the COVID-19 pandemic continued, exacerbating health resources scarcity, programs faced funding shortages and participants needed to find efficiencies through greater integration and activity prioritisation within their NTD units. Emphasising community-led approaches to restore trust and engagement was critical after widespread social anxiety and disconnection. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Sustaining effective NTD programs during a global emergency goes beyond managing immediate activity disruptions and requires attention to how NTD programs can be better ensconced within wider health programs, administrative, and social systems. This study underscores the importance of pre-emergency planning that reinforces NTD control programs as a critical service at all health systems levels, accompanied by governance arrangements that increase NTD staff control over their operations and strategies to maintain strong community relationships. Ensuring NTD units are supported via appropriate funding, personnel, and bureaucratic resources is also required.

Comparison of statistical methods for the early detection of disease outbreaks in small population settings.

Objectives: This study examines the performance of 6 aberration detection algorithms for the early detection of disease outbreaks in small population settings using syndrome-based early warning surveillance data collected by the Pacific Syndromic Surveillance System (PSSS). Although previous studies have proposed statistical methods for detecting aberrations in larger datasets, there is limited knowledge about how these perform in the presence of small numbers of background cases. Methods: To address this gap a simulation model was developed to test and compare the performance of the 6 algorithms in detecting outbreaks of different magnitudes, durations, and case distributions. Results: The study found that while the Early Aberration Reporting System-C1 algorithm developed by Hutwagner et al. outperformed others, no single approach provided reliable monitoring across all outbreak types. Furthermore, aberration detection approaches could only detect very large and acute outbreaks with any reliability. Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that algorithm-based approaches to outbreak signal detection perform poorly when applied to settings with small numbers of background cases and should not be relied upon in these contexts. This highlights the need for alternative approaches for accurate and timely outbreak detection in small population settings, particularly those that are resource-constrained.

Transmission of Antimicrobial Resistant Bacteria at the Hajj: A Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: The Hajj is an annual religious mass gathering event held in Makkah, Saudi Arabia. With millions of participants from across the globe attending the Hajj, the risk of importation, transmission, and global spread of infectious diseases is high. The emergence of antimicrobial resistant (AMR) bacteria is of worldwide concern and the Hajj poses a serious risk to its dissemination. This review aims to synthesize published literature on AMR bacteria acquisition and transmission associated with the Hajj. METHODS: We searched electronic databases to identify literature published between January 1990 and December 2021. The search strategy included medical subject headings and keyword terms related to AMR bacteria and the Hajj. RESULTS: After screening 2214 search results, 51 studies were included in the analysis. The review found 6455 AMR bacteria transmissions related to the Hajj. Thirty predominantly enteric or respiratory disease-causing AMR bacterial species were reported with isolates identified in cases on five continents. Most were male, aged above 50 years and were diagnosed in Makkah. Most cases were identified through hospital-based research; few cases were detected in community or primary health care settings. CONCLUSIONS: This review provides a contemporary account of knowledge related to AMR transmission at the Hajj. It emphasizes the need for the enhancement of surveillance for AMR bacteria globally.

Universal Health Coverage and the Pacific Islands: An Overview of Senior Leaders' Discussions, Challenges, Priorities and Solutions, 2015-2020.

In 1995, Pacific Health Ministers articulated their vision of a healthy Pacific as 'a place where children are nurtured in body and mind; environments invite learning and leisure; people work and age with dignity; where ecological balance is a source of pride; and where the ocean is protected.' Central to this vision is the achievement of universal health coverage (UHC). To provide an indication of the UHC-related priorities of Pacific health authorities and promote alignment of domestic and international investments in health sector development, we thematically analyzed the discussion, resolutions, and recommendations from 5 years (2015-2020) of senior-level Pacific health meetings. Five main themes emerged: (i) the Healthy Islands vision has (and continues to have) a unifying influence on action for UHC; (ii) adoption of appropriate service delivery models that support integrated primary health care at the community level are needed; (iii) human resources for health are critical if efforts to achieve UHC are to be successful; (iv) access to reliable health information is core to health sector improvement; and (v) while not a panacea for all challenges, digital health offers many opportunities. Small and isolated populations, chronic workforce limitations, weak governance arrangements, ageing and inadequate health facilities, and supply chain and logistics difficulties (among other issues) interact to challenge primary health care delivery across the Pacific Islands. We found evidence that the Healthy Islands vision is a tool that garners support for UHC; however, to realize the vision, a realistic understanding of needed political, human resource, and economic investments is required. The significant disruptive effect of COVID-19 and the uncertainty it brings for implementation of the medium- to long-term health development agenda raises concern that progress may stagnate or retreat.

The impact of digital communication and data exchange on primary health service delivery in a small island developing state setting.

Tuvalu is one of the smallest and most remote countries in the world. Due partly to its geography, the limited availability of human resources for health, infrastructure weaknesses, and the economic situation, Tuvalu faces many health systems challenges to delivering primary health care and achieving universal health coverage. Advancements in information communication technology are anticipated to change the face of health care delivery, including in developing settings. In 2020 Tuvalu commenced installation of Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT) at health facilities on remote outer islands to allow the digital exchange of data and information between facilities and healthcare workers. We documented the impact that the installation of VSAT has had on supporting health workers in remote locations, clinical decision-making, and delivering primary health more broadly. We found that installation of VSAT in Tuvalu has enabled regular peer-to-peer communication across facilities; supported remote clinical decision-making and reduced the number of domestic and overseas medical referrals required; and supported formal and informal staff supervision, education, and development. We also found that VSAT's stability is dependent on access to services (such as a reliable electricity supply) for which responsibility sits outside of the health sector. We stress that digital health is not a panacea for all health service delivery challenges and should be seen as a tool (not the solution) to support health service improvement. Our research provides evidence of the impact digital connectivity offers primary health care and universal health coverage efforts in developing settings. It provides insights into factors that enable and inhibit sustainable adoption of new health technologies in low- and middle-income countries.

Arboviral Disease Outbreaks in the Pacific Islands Countries and Areas, 2014 to 2020: A Systematic Literature and Document Review.

Arthropod-borne diseases pose a significant public health threat, accounting for greater than 17% of infectious disease cases and 1 million deaths annually. Across Pacific Island countries and areas (PICs), outbreaks of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika are increasing in frequency and scale. Data about arbovirus outbreaks are incomplete, with reports sporadic, delayed, and often based solely on syndromic surveillance. We undertook a systematic review of published and grey literature and contacted relevant regional authorities to collect information about arboviral activity affecting PICs between October 2014 and June 2020. Our literature search identified 1176 unique peer-reviewed articles that were reduced to 25 relevant publications when screened. Our grey literature search identified 873 sources. Collectively, these data reported 104 unique outbreaks, including 72 dengue outbreaks affecting 19 (out of 22) PICs, 14 chikungunya outbreaks affecting 11 PICs, and 18 Zika outbreaks affecting 14 PICs. Our review is the most complete account of arboviral outbreaks to affect PICs since comparable work was published in 2014. It highlights the continued elevated level of arboviral activity across the Pacific and inconsistencies in how information about outbreaks is reported and recorded. It demonstrates the importance of a One-Health approach and the role that improved communication and reporting between different governments and sectors play in understanding the emergence, circulation, and transboundary risks posed by arboviral diseases.

Audit of post-exposure treatment to prevent lyssavirus infection in Sydney South West Area Health Service, 2005-2007.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the profile of people who received post-exposure treatment to prevent lyssavirus infection in Sydney South West Area Health Service between 2005 and 2007 and to assess treatment compliance with the current NSW Health protocol. METHODS: Thirty-eight public health files and a subset of 11 medical records were reviewed to collect demographic, exposure and treatment information for the period. RESULTS: Twenty-nine (76%) potential Lyssavirus exposures occurred overseas. Nine potential exposures occurred within Australia; eight of these resulted from a bat bite or scratch. Thirteen (34%) of all potential exposures resulted from handling an animal. CONCLUSION: Many potential exposures were the result of a bite or scratch from a domesticated animal; the animal's survival or health status was not routinely recorded. While all people who commenced post-exposure treatment completed the prescribed course, this was often not within the stipulated timeframe.

Investigation of equine influenza transmission in NSW: walk, wind or wing?

OBJECTIVES: An outbreak of equine influenza occurred in New South Wales in 2007. In addition to the local spread of the disease between bordering properties, windborne spread over several kilometres had been postulated as a possible method of transmission in this outbreak. This study aimed to describe potential modes of transmission for a property infected with equine influenza where no apparent epidemiological links to other infected properties were reported. METHODS: A semi-structured questionnaire was administered to owners of affected properties. The questionnaire collected detailed transmission-risk information, including personnel movements, equipment sharing, and horse and other animal movements. RESULTS: Interviews with property owners from one geographic area suggested the potential for birds and other animals - rather than wind - to facilitate transmission of equine influenza. CONCLUSION: This study described the potential for mechanical spread of equine influenza. Further research, including laboratory testing of bird plumage following contact with infected horses, may be useful to confirm the possibility of avian fomite transmission.

Enhanced surveillance during a public health emergency in a resource-limited setting: Experience from a large dengue outbreak in Solomon Islands, 2016-17.

Between August-2016 and April-2017, Solomon Islands experienced the largest and longest-running dengue outbreak on record in the country, with 12,329 suspected cases, 877 hospitalisations and 16 deaths. We conducted a retrospective review of related data and documents, and conducted key informant interviews to characterise the event and investigate the adaptability of syndromic surveillance for enhanced and expanded data collection during a public health emergency in a low resource country setting. While the outbreak quickly consumed available public and clinical resources, we found that authorities were able to scale up the conventional national syndrome-based early warning surveillance system to support the increased information demands during the event demonstrating the flexibility of the system and syndromic surveillance more broadly. Challenges in scaling up included upskilling and assisting staff with no previous experience of the tasks required; managing large volumes of data; maintaining data quality for the duration of the outbreak; harmonising routine and enhanced surveillance data and maintaining surveillance for other diseases; producing information optimally useful for response planning; and managing staff fatigue. Solomon Islands, along with other countries of the region remains vulnerable to outbreaks of dengue and other communicable diseases. Ensuring surveillance systems are robust and able to adapt to changing demands during emergencies should be a health protection priority.

Risk posed by the Ebola epidemic to the Pacific islands: findings of a recent World Health Organization assessment.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the public health risk posed by the ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa to Pacific island countries and areas and to highlight priority risk management actions for preparedness and response. METHOD: The likelihood of EVD importation and the magnitude of public health impact in Pacific island countries and areas were assessed to determine overall risk. Literature about the hazard, epidemiology, exposure and contextual factors associated with EVD was collected and reviewed. Epidemiological information from the current EVD outbreak was assessed. RESULTS: As of 11 March 2015, there have been more than 24,200 reported cases of EVD and at least 9976 deaths in six West African countries. Three EVD cases have been infected outside of the West African region, and all have epidemiological links to the outbreak in West Africa. Pacific island countries' and areas' relative geographic isolation and lack of travel or trade links between countries with transmission means that EVD importation is very unlikely. However, should a case be imported, the health and non-health consequences would be major. The capacity of Pacific island countries and areas to respond adequately varies greatly between (and within) states but in general is limited. DISCUSSION: This risk assessment highlights the needs to enhance preparedness for EVD in the Pacific by strengthening the capacities outlined in the World Health Organization Framework for Action on Ebola. Priority areas include the ability to detect and respond to suspected EVD cases quickly, isolation and management of cases in appropriately resourced facilities and the prevention of further cases through infection prevention and control. These efforts for Ebola should enhance all-hazards public health preparedness in line with the International Health Regulations (2005).