Development and evaluation of a risk assessment tool to improve clinical triage accuracy for colonoscopic investigations.

BACKGROUND: Gastroenterology Departments at hospitals within Australia receive thousands of General Practitioner (GP)-referral letters for gastrointestinal investigations every month. Many of these requests are for colonoscopy. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the current symptoms-based triage system compared to a novel risk score using objective markers. METHODS: Patients with lower abdominal symptoms referred by their GPs and triaged by a Gastroenterology consultant to a colonoscopy consent clinic were recruited into the study. A risk assessment tool (RAT) was developed using objective data (clinical, demographic, pathology (stool test, FIT), standard blood tests and colonoscopy outcome). Colonoscopy and histology results were scored and then stratified as either significant bowel disease (SBD) or non-significant bowel disease (non-SBD). RESULTS: Of the 467 patients in our study, 45.1% were male, the mean age was 54.3 ± 13.8 years and mean BMI was 27.8 ± 6.2. Overall, 26% had SBD compared to 74% with non-SBD (42% of the cohort had a normal colonoscopy). Increasing severity of referral symptoms was related to a higher triage category, (rectal bleeding, P = 2.86*10-9; diarrhoea, P = 0.026; abdominal pain, P = 5.67*10-4). However, there was no significant difference in the prevalence of rectal bleeding (P = 0.991) or diarrhoea (P = 0.843) for SBD. Abdominal pain significantly reduced the risk of SBD (P = 0.0344, OR = 0.52, CI = 0.27-0.95). Conversely, the RAT had a very high specificity of 98% with PPV and NPV of SBD prediction, 74% and 77%, respectively. The RAT provided an odds ratio (OR) of 9.0, 95%CI 4.29-18.75, p = 2.32*10-11), higher than the FIT test (OR = 5.3, 95%CI 2.44-11.69, p = 4.88*10-6), blood score (OR = 2.8, 95%CI 1.72- 4.38, p = 1.47*10-5) or age (OR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.61-4.00, 5.12*10-5) independently. Notably, the ORs of these individual objective measures were higher than the current practice of symptoms-based triaging (OR = 1.4, 95%CI 0.88-2.11, p = 0.153). CONCLUSIONS: It is critical that individuals with high risk of having SBD are triaged to the appropriate category with the shortest wait time. Here we provide evidence that a combination of blood markers, demographic markers and the FIT test have a higher diagnostic accuracy for SBD than FIT alone.

Granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor autoantibodies: a marker of aggressive Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: Neutralizing autoantibodies (Abs) against granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF Ab) have been associated with stricturing ileal Crohn's disease (CD) in a largely pediatric patient cohort (total 394, adult CD 57). The aim of this study was to examine this association in 2 independent predominantly adult inflammatory bowel disease patient cohorts. METHODS: Serum samples from 742 subjects from the NIDDK IBD Genetics Consortium and 736 subjects from Australia were analyzed for GM-CSF Ab and genetic markers. We conducted multiple regression analysis with backward elimination to assess the contribution of GM-CSF Ab levels and established CD risk alleles and smoking on ileal disease location in the 477 combined CD subjects from both cohorts. We also determined associations of GM-CSF Ab levels with complications requiring surgical intervention in combined CD subjects in both cohorts. RESULTS: Serum samples from patients with CD expressed significantly higher concentrations of GM-CSF Ab when compared with ulcerative colitis or controls in each cohort. Nonsmokers with ileal CD expressed significantly higher GM-CSF Ab concentrations in the Australian cohort (P = 0.002). Elevated GM-CSF Ab, ileal disease location, and disease duration more than 3 years were independently associated with stricturing/penetrating behavior and intestinal resection for CD. CONCLUSIONS: The expression of high GM-CSF Ab is a risk marker for aggressive CD behavior and complications including surgery. Modifying factors include environmental exposure to smoking and genetic risk markers.

Inter-observer agreement for Crohn's disease sub-phenotypes using the Montreal Classification: How good are we? A multi-centre Australasian study.

BACKGROUND: Crohn's disease (CD) exhibits significant clinical heterogeneity. Classification systems attempt to describe this; however, their utility and reliability depends on inter-observer agreement (IOA). We therefore sought to evaluate IOA using the Montreal Classification (MC). METHODS: De-identified clinical records of 35 CD patients from 6 Australian IBD centres were presented to 13 expert practitioners from 8 Australia and New Zealand Inflammatory Bowel Disease Consortium (ANZIBDC) centres. Practitioners classified the cases using MC and forwarded data for central blinded analysis. IOA on smoking and medications was also tested. Kappa statistics, with pre-specified outcomes of κ>0.8 excellent; 0.61-0.8 good; 0.41-0.6 moderate and ≤0.4 poor, were used. RESULTS: 97% of study cases had colonoscopy reports, however, only 31% had undergone a complete set of diagnostic investigations (colonoscopy, histology, SB imaging). At diagnosis, IOA was excellent for age, κ=0.84; good for disease location, κ=0.73; only moderate for upper GI disease (κ=0.57) and disease behaviour, κ=0.54; and good for the presence of perianal disease, κ=0.6. At last follow-up, IOA was good for location, κ=0.68; only moderate for upper GI disease (κ=0.43) and disease behaviour, κ=0.46; but excellent for the presence/absence of perianal disease, κ=0.88. IOA for immunosuppressant use ever and presence of stricture were both good (κ=0.79 and 0.64 respectively). CONCLUSION: IOA using MC is generally good; however some areas are less consistent than others. Omissions and inaccuracies reduce the value of clinical data when comparing cohorts across different centres, and may impair the ability to translate genetic discoveries into clinical practice.