Acquaintance Rape: Applying Crime Scene Analysis to the Prediction of Sexual Recidivism.

The aim of the current study was to enhance the assessment and predictive accuracy of risk assessments for sexual offenders by utilizing detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was conducted on a sample of 247 male acquaintance rapists from Berlin (Germany) using a nonmetric, multidimensional scaling (MDS) Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach. The age of the offenders at the time of the index offense ranged from 14 to 64 years (M = 32.3; SD = 11.4). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and pseudo-intimacy, consistent with previous CSA research on stranger rape. The construct validity of the three themes was demonstrated through correlational analyses with known sexual offending measures and criminal histories. The themes of hostility and pseudo-intimacy were significant predictors of sexual recidivism. In addition, the pseudo-intimacy theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism. The results indicate the potential utility and validity of crime scene behaviors in the applied risk assessment of sexual offenders.

The development of the crime scene behavior risk measure for sexual offense recidivism.

The inclusion of crime scene behavior in actuarial risk assessment so far is insufficient, unsystematic, and neglecting factors theoretically relevant to sexual recidivism. Therefore, the goal of the current study was to develop a brief actuarial risk scale based on crime scene characteristics. The development sample consisted of data (police databases, paper records, and the National Conviction Registry) from 955 male sexual offenders (77% German citizens, 20% foreign nationals, mean age = 35 years, convicted for sexual abuse and/or sexual violence). Further, the independent cross-validation-sample consisted of data from 77 sexual offenders. The 7 items that are comprised by the Crime Scene Behavior Risk (CBR) measure showed high predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism with little variation between the development (c index = .72) and the replication sample (c index = .74). Further, the CBR was found to provide significant incremental validity and improve the predictive accuracy of the Static-99R risk assessment tool. Given the predictive and incremental validity of the CBR it is suggested that sexual offender risk assessment can be improved by utilizing crime scene behavior. The CBR is currently being used in addition to the Static-99R by the State Office of Criminal Investigations in Berlin to prioritize released sexual offenders for police supervision.

Applying crime scene analysis to the prediction of sexual recidivism in stranger rapes.

The current study sought to improve the predictive accuracy of sexual recidivism using the Static-99 risk assessment tool by the addition of detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was carried out using a Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach, the gold-standard in CSA. BTA was conducted on a sample of 167 stranger rape cases using nonmetric multidimensional scaling (MDS). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and sexual exploitation, consistent with previous research in sexual offending CSA. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the criminality theme was significantly predictive of sexual recidivism and also significantly correlated with previous sexual offense history. Further, the criminality theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism.

Effectiveness of social-therapeutic treatment for serious offenders in juvenile detention: A quasi-experimental study of recidivism.

Due to legislative changes in Germany, there has been an increasing expansion of social-therapeutic facilities for juvenile offenders over the past 15 years. Social therapy comprises an eclectic mix of psychotherapeutic, educational, vocational, and recreational measures in a milieu-therapeutic setting to reduce recidivism of high-risk violent and sexual offenders. This study examined the effectiveness of social-therapeutic treatment on post-release recidivism among juvenile offenders. The sample included male offenders (n = 111) of the juvenile detention center in Berlin, Germany, aged 14-22 years, who were convicted of a violent (94%) or sexual offense (6%). Seventy-three subjects admitted to the social-therapeutic unit were compared to an offense-parallelized control group (n = 38) from the regular units using a propensity score based matching procedure. Initially, the groups did not differ with respect to risk (i.e., Level of Service Inventory - Revised) or risk-related characteristics (e.g., age). Subsequent Cox regression analyses revealed no average treatment effect on recidivism. Since the results indicated that the control group was not untreated, differential treatment effects were examined in a second step. School and vocational trainings had an effect on recidivism. The findings are discussed in light of the challenges in evaluating legally mandated offender treatment.

Analyze This! Thematic Analysis: Hostility, Attribution of Intent, and Interpersonal Perception Bias.

Research suggests that aggressive individuals exhibit a strong tendency to attribute hostile intent to the behavior of others when confronted with an ambiguous social situation. The vignettes method has become a standard procedure to assess hostile attributions. Vignettes represent incomplete ambiguous social stories, in which the subjects experience a negative outcome and are asked to attribute intent to the provocateur's action. This article explores the ways in which subjects perceive ambiguous social situations and other people's intentions, their tendency to refer negative outcome to oneself, and the components defining hostility in the interpersonal relationships. The sample consisted of male adolescent violent offenders (N = 45) recruited from the Social Therapy Department of the German correctional facility for juvenile offenders in Berlin. All offenders were incarcerated for a violent or sexual crime and were currently undergoing individual and group psychotherapy. The five hypothetical vignettes used in this study were originally designed to assess hostile attributions in both institutional and noninstitutional social situations. Participants' responses were analyzed using thematic analysis. Thematic analysis revealed three key themes regarding the social perception-positive, negative, and neutral-and two themes regarding the components of hostility-provocateur-related personality features and relationship type. Although the vignettes were originally developed to detect hostility-prone perception bias, they seem to be able to reveal a wider set of different attributions of intent, both positive and negative. Thus, vignettes are not limited to assessment of hostility specifically. They much rather seem to be a measure which is sensitive to diverse attributions of intent in general. The diagnostic qualities of the vignettes, their area of application, limitations of the study, and future perspective are discussed.

A Person-Centered Approach to Prison Behavior Based on Officers' Observations: Relations to Risk, Prison Misconduct, and Recidivism.

Incorporating measures of prison behavior into risk assessment and management procedures may assist in treatment planning, risk monitoring, and decision-making. A behavior rating scale was used to assess prison officers' observations on externalizing, internalizing, and adaptive behavior in a sample of 277 sexual and violent offenders in correctional treatment in Berlin, Germany. The present study employed latent profile analysis to identify inmate subtypes with similar behavioral patterns. Results indicated a solution with five latent profiles that showed similarities with previous inmate typologies. The subtypes were termed "Aggressive-Psychopathic," "Asocial," "Situational," "Inconspicuous, and "Inadequate-Dependent." Analyses attested to the construct and predictive validity of the subtypes and involved the examination of differences on criminological characteristics, risk assessment instruments, various types of prison misconduct, and postrelease recidivism. This person-centered study illustrates the importance of attending to broader patterns of inmate behavior. The structured assessment of behavioral observations by prison officers can be a valuable and easy-to-implement approach to benefit from this largely neglected resource.

Targeting Misconduct in Prison by Modifying Occupational Factors in Correctional Facilities.

Misconduct in prison is a phenomenon, which by its nature is hard to observe. Little is known about its origins and its modifiability. This study presents data on the level of misconduct in prison perceived by staff members and examines its impact on occupational factors. Data from officers, which also included i.e. team climate, job satisfaction, self-efficacy, and sick days, was collected at three different correctional units in Berlin, Germany (N = 60). The study reveals higher rates of perceived misconduct in prison on regular units as compared to treatment units within the observed facilities. In addition, regression analysis provides evidence for an association of rates of misconduct in prison, sick days, and low self-efficacy. Results are discussed in terms of providing a model that supports the idea of a network entailing occupational factors and misconduct in prison and which can be utilized to target misconduct in prison with suitable interventions.

Let's Work Together - Occupational Factors and Their Correlates to Prison Climate and Inmates' Attitudes Towards Treatment.

The role of psychosocial and structural occupational factors in mental health service provision has broadly been researched. However, less is known about the influence of employees' occupational factors on inmates in correctional treatment settings that mostly seek to apply a milieu-therapeutic approach. Therefore, the present study investigated the relationships between occupational factors (job satisfaction, self-efficacy, and the functionality of the organizational structure) and prison climate, the number of staff members' sick days as well as inmates' treatment motivation. Employees (n = 76) of three different correctional treatment units in Berlin, Germany, rated several occupational factors as well as prison climate. At the same time, treatment motivation of n = 232 inmates was assessed. Results showed that higher ratings of prison climate were associated with higher levels of team climate, job satisfaction and the functionality of the organizational structure, but not with self-efficacy and sick days. There was no significant relationship between occupational factors and the perceived safety on the treatment unit. Inmates' treatment motivation was correlated with all aggregated occupational factors and with average sick days of staff members. Outcomes of this study strongly emphasize the importance of a positive social climate in correctional treatment units for occupational factors of prison staff but also positive treatment outcomes for inmates. Also, in the light of these results, consequences for daily work routine and organizational structure of prisons are discussed.

A Latent Profile Analysis of Violent Offenders Based on PCL-R Factor Scores: Criminogenic Needs and Recidivism Risk.

Clinicians and theorists have often proposed the two psychopathic subtypes of "primary" and "secondary" psychopathy, with recent research indicating some empirical support for both psychopathy subtypes, though the findings across studies are far from uniform. For the current study, latent profile analysis was used to investigate if homogeneous latent classes exist within a sample of 215 adult male violent offenders from Berlin, Germany. The age of the offenders at the time of the index offense ranged from 19 to 59 years. The results indicated a solution with four latent classes, which we refer to as prototypical psychopaths (LC1), callous-conning offenders (LC2), sociopathic or dyssocial offenders (LC3), and general offenders (LC4). Validation of the four subtypes involved examination of differences on recidivism risk; criminogenic needs; and general, violent, and sexual reoffending. The results also are discussed in terms of the issue of treatment amenability.

Incremental validity of the Psychopathy Checklist facet scores: predicting release outcome in six samples.

The incremental validity of the 4 facet scores (Interpersonal, Affective, Lifestyle, Antisocial) of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; R. D. Hare, 1991, 2003) and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV; S. D. Hart, D. N. Cox, & R. D. Hare, 1995) was evaluated in 6 forensic/correctional samples with average follow-ups ranging from 20 weeks to 10 years. Results indicated that whereas Facet 4 (Antisocial) achieved incremental validity relative to the first 3 facets (Interpersonal, Affective, and Lifestyle) in predicting recidivism in all 6 samples, a block of the first 3 facets achieved incremental validity relative to the 4th facet in only 1 sample. Thus, although there was consistent support for the incremental validity of Facet 4 above and beyond the first 3 facets, there was minimal support for the incremental validity of Facets 1, 2, and 3 above and beyond Facet 4. The implications of these findings for the psychopathy construct in general and the PCL-R/SV in particular are discussed.

It is Written in Your Eyes: Hostile Attributions and Self-Directed Gaze Perception in Incarcerated Violent Adolescent Male Offenders.

To date, we have frugal knowledge about the hostile attribution bias (HAB) and the biased gaze perception in violent adolescent offenders. This however is a major contributing factor in understanding delinquent behavior. Using a computer-based approach, presenting faces modulated in gaze direction (0°, 2°, 4°, 6°, 8°) and valence (angry, fearful, happy, neutral), the present study examined the impact of HAB of the feeling of being stared at in a sample of 27 adolescent offenders (aged 17-24 years). The study was conducted institution-intern in the Department for Social Therapy of a German correctional facility. Results showed that in comparison with faces with negative expressions, happy faces were more likely to be perceived as self-directed. Interestingly, emotion showed significant influence of the gaze perception in only two viewing angles (2° and 6°), revealing the role of the facial expression in highly ambiguous conditions. Furthermore, hostility did not modulate the relationship between the self-referential gaze perception and (negative) facial expression. Possible frameworks and limitations of the study are discussed.

Predicting Offenders' Institutional Misconduct and Recidivism: The Utility of Behavioral Ratings by Prison Officers.

Measures of current behavior are rarely incorporated into risk assessment. Therefore, the current study used a behavior rating scale to assess prison officers' observations of inmates prison behavior and examined the contribution of these ratings for risk assessment. Prison officers rated 272 sexual and violent offenders in three different correctional treatment facilities in Berlin, Germany. Factor analysis revealed three psychologically meaningful factors measuring externalizing, internalizing and adaptive prison behavior. The construct validity of the three factors was established through correlational analyses with standardized risk assessment instruments. Externalizing and internalizing behaviors were significant predictors of violent recidivism after release. In addition, externalizing was a significant predictor of institutional misconduct, whereas adaptive and internalizing behavior predicted whether an inmate was granted privileges (e.g., minimum-security confinement). Logistic regression analyses indicated that externalizing behavior ratings added incrementally to the Level of Service Inventory-Revised for the prediction of institutional misconduct and violent recidivism. The results indicate that prison officers observe important prison behaviors and that behavioral ratings can improve risk assessment.

Prison Climate and Its Role in Reducing Dynamic Risk Factors During Offender Treatment.

Although several offender treatment experts have suggested that therapeutic relationships play an important role in offender treatment, empirical finding supporting those arguments are scarce. The present study has therefore examined the relationship between prison climate, treatment motivation, and their influence on changes in risk factors in N = 215 inmates and detainees in four correctional facilities in Berlin, Germany. The inmates' perception of prison climate significantly correlated with their attitudes towards treatment. More positive climate in terms of therapeutic hold and more positive treatment attitude in terms of trust in therapy were also the best predictors of stronger decreases in dynamic risk factors measured by the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R). Our results support the importance of treatment relationship factors within the course of offender rehabilitation.

Strengths and limitations of actuarial prediction of criminal reoffence in a German prison sample: a comparative study of LSI-R, HCR-20 and PCL-R.

Unlike many other countries, for many years, Germany disregarded structured instruments for assessing the risk of criminal reoffence. However, this negative attitude now seems to be gradually changing. An increasing number of contributions regarding structured instruments have been published in the German literature in the last years, and some instruments have already found their way into practice. However, studies that systematically examine the applicability of the mostly Anglo-American instruments to German criminals are still lacking. Therefore, the major objective of the current study was to test some internationally established procedures in a larger unselected sample from the German penal system. The following were included in the study: the Level of Service Inventory - Revised (LSI-R), the HCR-20 Scheme, and the Psychopathy Checklist - Revised (PCL-R). On the whole, the instruments proved to be applicable to German criminals with only a few adaptations to the German situation, and they achieved a predictive accuracy comparable to the values reported internationally. However, there were only minor differences in the predictive performance between the measures. Moreover, some basic limitations became apparent. Firstly, we found quite high percentages of criminals with medium scores and a correspondingly ambiguous prognosis. Furthermore, the predictive accuracy seemed to be dependent on demographic, criminological and psychopathological characteristics of the offenders. Finally, the instruments appeared to only partially utilize the empirical store of knowledge available regarding factors influencing the recidivism of criminals, since even a simple predictive model that only added a few further aspects besides the tested instruments (e. g. treatment yes or no) achieved systematically better predictions than the instruments alone. Altogether, the tested measures turned out to be useful instruments for risk assessments and may be conducive for a more systemized practice. However, due to the limitations inherent, they should be seen as a complement to a careful and clinically informed appraisal and not a substitute.

Interpreting multiple risk scales for sex offenders: evidence for averaging.

This study tested 3 decision rules for combining actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders into an overall evaluation of risk. Based on a 9-year follow-up of 940 adult male sex offenders, we found that Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), Static-99R, and Static-2002R predicted sexual, violent, and general recidivism and provided incremental information for the prediction of all 3 outcomes. Consistent with previous findings, the incremental effect of RRASOR was positive for sexual recidivism but negative for violent and general recidivism. Averaging risk ratios was a promising approach to combining these risk scales, showing good calibration between predicted (E) and observed (O) recidivism rates (E/O index = 0.93, 95% CI [0.79, 1.09]) and good discrimination (area under the curve = 0.73, 95% CI [0.69, 0.77]) for sexual recidivism. As expected, choosing the lowest (least risky) risk tool resulted in underestimated sexual recidivism rates (E/O = 0.67, 95% CI [0.57, 0.79]) and choosing the highest (riskiest) resulted in overestimated risk (E/O = 1.37, 95% CI [1.17, 1.60]). For the prediction of violent and general recidivism, the combination rules provided similar or lower discrimination compared with relying solely on the Static-99R or Static-2002R. The current results support an averaging approach and underscore the importance of understanding the constructs assessed by violence risk measures.

The significance of offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism among sex offenders of various age groups.

Based on a sample of 682 male sex offenders, this study investigated variables of the offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism in different age groups. The sex offenders were allocated into four age groups. For each group, those characteristics of offending behavior showing a significant bivariate correlation with sexual recidivism were extracted. Using logistic regression, we then analyzed their incremental validity above and beyond a previously developed Crime Scene Behavior Risk (CBR)-Score, which measures the risk of sexual recidivism without taking into account the offenders' age (Dahle, Biedermann, Gallasch-Nemitz, & Janka, 2010). Age-specific offending behavior variables with incremental validity were combined with the general CBR-Score into age-specific scores and examined for their predictive accuracy. We also analyzed the extent in which these age-specific scores showed incremental validity above and beyond the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999). For three of the four age groups, age-specific Crime Scene Behavior Risk-Scores could be determined which were incrementally valid above and beyond the Static-99. Predictive accuracy varied between AUC=.74 and AUC=.90 (r=.28 to r=.49) depending on age group. The results are discussed within context of recent findings on the latent dimensions of actuarial risk assessment variables.

[Psychotherapy within the prison system after the change of law]. / Psychotherapie im Justizvollzug nach der Anderung des Strafvollzugsgesetzes.

The amendment of the law limiting the professional secrecy of physicians and psychologists toward the prison authorities has triggered a discussion on the consequences involved for treatment practice in the prison system. To reduce the lack of empirically based arguments in this discussion, our study deals with the question of whether and to what extent psychotherapy in conjunction with prison health care offers also contributions to preventing recidivism. A quasi-experimental control group study showed that especially for serious violent offenses delinquents of the Tegel detention center who underwent at least 20 hours of therapy at the psychotherapeutic consultation and treatment service had a markedly lower recidivism rate a mean of four years after release from prison than an untreated group. If changes in the penal code jeopardize a regular therapeutic setting with professional secrecy, they carry the risk of excluding prisoners primarily requiring psychotherapy who have thus far apparently also derived benefit especially from prevention-oriented therapy.