Identifying missed opportunities for hepatitis C virus antenatal testing and diagnosis in England.

New case-finding opportunities are needed to achieve hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in England by the year 2030. HCV antenatal testing is not offered universally in England but is recommended for women with risk factors for HCV (e.g. injecting drug use, being born in a high-prevalence country). The aim of this analysis was to investigate the missed opportunities for HCV antenatal testing among women who had given birth and were subsequently diagnosed with HCV at some time after childbirth. By linking data on live births (2010-2020) to laboratory reports of HCV diagnoses (1995-2021), we identified all women who were diagnosed with HCV after the date of their first childbirth. This group was considered to potentially have experienced a missed opportunity for HCV antenatal testing; HCV-RNA testing and treatment outcomes were also obtained for these women. Of the 32,295 women who gave birth between 2010 and 2020 with a linked diagnosis of HCV (median age: 34 years, 72.1% UK-born), over half (n = 17,123) were diagnosed after childbirth. In multivariable analyses, the odds of being diagnosed with HCV after childbirth were higher in those of Asian Bangladeshi, Black African or Chinese ethnicity and among those born in Africa. Over four-fifths (3510/4260) of those eligible for treatment were linked to treatment, 30.7% (747/2435) of whom had a liver scarring level of at least moderate and 9.4% (228/2435) had cirrhosis. Given the potential opportunity to identify cases of HCV with targeted case-finding through antenatal services, universal opt-out testing should be considered in these settings.

Seroprevalence of immunity to hepatitis A and hepatitis B among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) attending sexual health clinics in London and Leeds, England, 2017-2018.

OBJECTIVES: Although hepatitis A virus (HAV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) immunisation is recommended in the UK for gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM), data on immunisation coverage are limited. We aimed to determine the seroprevalence of HAV and HBV immunity among a sample of GBMSM attending sexual health services (SHS) in England. METHODS: Residual serum samples from HIV/syphilis testing for adult GBMSM attending eight SHS in London and one in Leeds were tested for markers of HAV immunity (HAV IgG) and HBV immunity (anti-HBs) using an unlinked anonymous approach. We estimated seroprevalence of HAV and HBV immunity overall and stratified by individuals' characteristics, which we obtained from the Genitourinary Medicine Clinic Activity Dataset Sexually Transmitted Infection (STI) Surveillance System. We used logistic regression to calculate crude and adjusted ORs between seropositivity and demographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS: Seroprevalence of immunity to HAV (74.5% of 2577) and HBV (77.1% of 2551) was high. In adjusted analysis, HAV IgG seroprevalence varied by clinic and WHO region of birth (global p<0.001 for each), increased with older age (ORs of 1.50 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.86), 2.91 (2.17 to 3.90) and 3.40 (2.44 to 4.75) for ages 26-35, 36-45 and >46 vs 18-25 years (global p<0.001), was higher in those with an STI in the past year (1.58 (1.25 to 2.00); p<0.001) and those who were living with HIV (1.82 (1.25 to 2.64); p<0.001). Anti-HBs seroprevalence varied by clinic (global p<0.001), increased with older age (global p<0.001) and was higher in those with an STI in the past year (1.61 (1.27 to 2.05); p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Our findings provide a baseline seroprevalence from which to monitor serial levels of immunity to HBV and HAV in GBMSM accessing SHS. Levels of immunity for both viruses are high, noting samples were taken after recent widespread outbreaks and vaccination campaigns. High vaccine coverage in all GBMSM should be maintained to prevent further outbreaks.

Understanding current antenatal Hepatitis C testing and care in maternity services in England.

OBJECTIVES: Universal opt-out antenatal screening for Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is not currently recommened and it is recommended that maternity services offer risk-based testing. We aimed to investigate antenatal HCV testing and adherence to testing guidance. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was circulated to maternity service providers between November-December 2020 which included testing policy, training for healthcare staff, and management of women found to be HCV positive. Descriptive data are presented. RESULTS: A total of 75 questionnaires were returned, representing 48 % of English maternity service providers. 87 % of providers reported offering antenatal HCV risk-based testing. Risk factors used to identify pregnant women for testing varied. Less than 15 % of respondents considered women that were ever homeless or with history of incarceraton or from higher HCV prevalence areas as high risk. CONCLUSIONS: Current antenatal HCV testing practices are inadequate and HCV infection likely goes undiagnosed in pregnancy, especially among vulnerable population groups. In the absence of universal antenatal screening, re-framing antenatal HCV risk-based testing and management as a quality improvement initiative and developing HCV specific pathway guidance for maternity units is required.

Opioid Injection-Associated Bacterial Infections in England, 2002-2021: A Time Series Analysis of Seasonal Variation and the Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial infections cause substantial pain and disability among people who inject drugs. We described time trends in hospital admissions for injecting-related infections in England. METHODS: We analyzed hospital admissions in England between January 2002 and December 2021. We included patients with infections commonly caused by drug injection, including cutaneous abscesses, cellulitis, endocarditis, or osteomyelitis, and a diagnosis of opioid use disorder. We used Poisson regression to estimate seasonal variation and changes associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) response. RESULTS: There were 92 303 hospital admissions for injection-associated infections between 2002 and 2021. Eighty-seven percent were skin, soft-tissue, or vascular infections; 72% of patients were male; and the median age increased from 31 years in 2002 to 42 years in 2021. The rate of admissions reduced from 13.97 per day (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.59-14.36) in 2003 to 8.94 (95% CI, 8.64-9.25) in 2011, then increased to 18.91 (95% CI, 18.46-19.36) in 2019. At the introduction of COVID-19 response in March 2020, the rate of injection-associated infections reduced by 35.3% (95% CI, 32.1-38.4). Injection-associated infections were also seasonal; the rate was 1.21 (95% CI, 1.18-1.24) times higher in July than in February. CONCLUSIONS: This incidence of opioid injection-associated infections varies within years and reduced following COVID-19 response measures. This suggests that social and structural factors such as housing and the degree of social mixing may contribute to the risk of infection, supporting investment in improved social conditions for this population as a means to reduce the burden of injecting-related infections.

Blood-borne virus testing in emergency departments - a systematic review of seroprevalence, feasibility, acceptability and linkage to care.

BACKGROUND: Blood-borne viruses (BBVs) cause significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Emergency departments (EDs) offer a point of contact for groups at increased risk of BBVs who may be less likely to engage with primary care. We reviewed the literature to evaluate whether BBV testing in this setting might be a viable option to increase case finding and linkage to care. METHODS: We searched PubMed database for English language articles published until June 2019 on BBV testing in EDs. Studies reporting seroprevalence surveys, feasibility, linkage to care, enablers and barriers to testing were included. Additional searches for grey literature were performed. RESULTS: Eight-nine articles met inclusion criteria, of which 14 reported BBV seroprevalence surveys in EDs, 54 investigated feasibility and acceptability, and 36 investigated linkage to care. Most studies were HIV-focused and conducted in the USA. Seroprevalence rates were in the range 1.5-17% for HCV, 0.7-1.6% for HBV, and 0.8-13% for HIV. For studies that used an opt-in study design, testing uptake ranged from 2% to 98% and for opt-out it ranged from 16% to 91%. There was a wide range of yield: 13-100% of patients received their test result, 21-100% were linked to care, and 50-91% were retained in care. Compared with individuals diagnosed with HIV, linkage to and retention in care were lower for those diagnosed with hepatitis C. Predictors of linkage to care was associated with certain patient characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Universal opt-out BBV testing in EDs may be feasible and acceptable, but linkage to care needs to be improved by optimizing implementation. Further economic evaluations of hepatitis testing in EDs are needed.

Investigating rates and risk factors for hepatitis C virus reinfection in people receiving antiviral treatment in England.

England has committed to the World Health Organization target to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public threat by the year 2030. Given successful treatments for HCV in recent years, it is unclear whether HCV reinfection will impact England's ability to achieve HCV elimination. We aimed to estimate the HCV reinfection rate among a cohort of patients receiving antiviral treatment using available surveillance data. Linkage between a treatment dataset from 2015 to 2019 and an HCV RNA testing dataset were used to identify people who experienced reinfection using three criteria. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine risk factors associated with HCV reinfection among a cohort who received treatment and had follow-up HCV RNA testing. The reinfection rate among those receiving HCV treatment was 7.91 per 100 person-years (PYs, 95% confidence interval (CI) 7.37-8.49) and highest among current injecting drug users (22.55 per 100 PYs, 95% CI 19.98-25.46) and people who had been in prison (20.42 per 100 PYs, 95% CI 17.21-24.24). In the adjusted model, women had a significantly reduced risk of reinfection. Being of younger age, current injecting drug users, and receipt of first treatment in prison were each significantly associated with increased risk of reinfection. Two-fifths of those with reinfection (43%, n = 329/767) were linked to treatment after reinfection, and of those starting treatment, three quarters (75%, n = 222/296) achieved a sustained virologic response. Guidance for testing groups at risk of reinfection and harm reduction strategies to minimize transmission should be implemented if England is to achieve HCV elimination targets.

Retrospective cohort study assessing coverage, uptake and associations with hepatitis B vaccination among females who engage in sex work attending sexual health services in England between 2015 and 2019.

OBJECTIVES: Females who engage in sex work (FSW) are at high risk of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and are eligible for HBV vaccination. The objective of this analysis was to explore coverage, uptake and correlates of HBV vaccination among FSW who attend sexual health services (SHS) in England. METHODS: Data on all attendances at SHS in England were obtained from the GUMCAD STI Surveillance System. Attendees were eligible for inclusion if they were female, had not been previously diagnosed with HIV and sex work was recorded between 2015 and 2019. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to investigate sociodemographic factors (age, ethnicity, region of birth and region of residence) associated with having received an HBV vaccination on or after an attendance where sex work was reported. RESULTS: There were 13 769 FSW attending SHS in England between 2015 and 2019 (median age 30 years, 71% white ethnicity). HBV vaccination coverage was 37% (n=5050/13 751, 95% CI 35.9%-37.5%). Among those that first reported sex work between 2015 and 2019, HBV vaccination uptake was 30% (n=3249/10 681, 95% CI 29.6%-31.3%). In multivariable analyses, HBV vaccination uptake was associated with younger age (5-year increase: OR=0.87, 95% CI 0.85, 0.89) and being born in South America (37%, adjusted OR (aOR)=1.40, 95% CI 1.18, 1.66) compared with being born in the UK. Being of Asian ethnicity (19%, aOR=0.63, 95% CI 0.45, 0.89) compared with white ethnicity was associated with reduced odds of HBV vaccination. Sixteen FSW were diagnosed with HBV after their first attendance where sex work was recorded. CONCLUSIONS: To achieve the WHO goals of elimination of HBV as a public health threat by the year 2030, further research is needed to understand the individual and structural barriers to the offering and uptake of HBV vaccination among FSW, as well as using health promotion methods to improve uptake.

A scoping review of media campaign strategies used to reach populations living with or at high risk for Hepatitis C in high income countries to inform future national campaigns in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: With the advent of direct acting antivirals, the World Health Organisation proposed eliminating Hepatitis C as a public health threat by 2030. To achieve this, countries need to diagnose, engage in care and treat their undiagnosed populations. This will require sensitisation campaigns. However previous media campaigns have had mixed impact. We conducted a scoping review to identify and understand the impact of previous Hepatitis C media campaigns. These findings could inform the delivery of future campaigns. METHODS: We searched five electronic databases for published literature on media campaigns conducted for Hepatitis C awareness, testing, and treatment in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries since 2010. Two independent reviewers screened citations for inclusion. Additionally, we spoke to stakeholders in the Hepatitis C field in the UK and conducted a Google search to identify any unpublished literature. A quantitative synthesis was conducted to identify targeted populations, strategies and media used, aims and impact of the campaigns. RESULTS: A title and year of publication screening of 3815 citations resulted in 113 papers that had a full abstract screen. This left 50 full-text papers, 18 were included of which 9 (50%) were from Europe. 5 (27.8%) of campaigns targeted minority ethnicities, and 9 (50%) aimed to increase testing. A Google search identified 6 grey literature sources. Most campaigns were not evaluated for impact. Discussions with stakeholders identified several barriers to successful campaigns including lack of targeted messaging, stigmatising or accusatory messaging, and short-lived or intermittent campaign strategies. CONCLUSION: Future campaigns will likely need to be multifaceted and have multiple tailored interventions. Campaigns will need to be sizeable and robust, integrated into health systems and viewed as an ongoing service rather than one-offs.

"Sex without fear": exploring the psychosocial impact of oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis on gay men in England.

Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) experience a high prevalence of psychosocial health problems, such as harmful substance use and depression, as well as being disproportionately affected by HIV. HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) may provide psychosocial benefits beyond its intended purpose of reducing HIV infection. We explore the psychosocial impact of oral PrEP use on gay men in England using qualitative data from the PROUD study. From February 2014 to January 2016, semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with 40 gay men and one trans woman. Participants were purposively recruited based on trial arm allocation, adherence, and sexual risk behaviours. By removing HIV risk from sex, PrEP improves users' wellbeing by reducing HIV-related anxiety and internalised stigma and increasing HIV prevention self-efficacy, sexual pleasure, and intimacy. In turn, these psychological changes may influence behaviour in the form of greater sexual freedom, reduced harmful drug use, and more protective sexual health behaviours. However, PrEP may create internal conflict for some gay men, due to its disruption of social norms around condom use and its perceived influence on their sexual behaviour leading to reduced condom self-efficacy. These findings provide a baseline of PrEP's psychosocial impact amongst some of the first PrEP users in England and supports calls to consider the psychosocial impact of PrEP in prescribing guidelines.

The Effectiveness of Low Dead Space Syringes for Reducing the Risk of Hepatitis C Virus Acquisition Among People Who Inject Drugs: Findings From a National Survey in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

Syringes with attached needles (termed fixed low dead space syringes [LDSS]) retain less blood following injection than syringes with detachable needles, but evidence on them reducing blood-borne virus transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) is lacking. Utilizing the UK Unlinked Anonymous Monitoring cross-sectional bio-behavioral surveys among PWID for 2016/18/19 (n = 1429), we showed that always using fixed LDSS was associated with 76% lower likelihood (adjusted odds ratio  = 0.24, 95% confidence interval [CI]: .08-.67) of recent hepatitis C virus infection (RNA-positive and antibody-negative) among antibody-negative PWID compared to using any syringes with detachable needles.

Epidemiology of HIV infection and associated behaviours among people who inject drugs in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland: Nearly 40 years on.

INTRODUCTION: People who inject drugs are at high risk of blood-borne infections. We describe the epidemiology of HIV among people who inject drugs in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (EW&NI) since 1981. METHODS: National HIV surveillance data were used to describe trends in diagnoses (1981-2019), prevalence (1990-2019), and behaviours (1990-2019) among people who inject drugs aged ≥15 years in EW&NI. HIV care and treatment uptake were assessed among those attending in 2019. RESULTS: Over the past four decades, the prevalence of HIV among people who inject drugs in EW&NI remained low (range: 0.64%-1.81%). Overall, 4978 people who inject drugs were diagnosed with HIV (3.2% of cases). Diagnoses peaked at 234 in 1987, decreasing to 78 in 2019; the majority were among white men born in the UK/Europe (90%), though the epidemic diversified over time. Late diagnosis (CD4 <350 cells/µl) was common (2010-2019: 52% [429/832]). Of those who last attended for HIV care in 2019, 97% (1503/1550) were receiving HIV treatment and 90% (1375/1520) had a suppressed viral load (<200 copies/ml). HIV testing uptake has steadily increased among people who inject drugs (32% since 1990). However, in 2019, 18% (246/1404) of those currently injecting reported never testing. The proportion of people currently injecting reporting sharing needles/syringes decreased from 1999 to 2012, before increasing to 20% (288/1426) in 2019, with sharing of any injecting equipment at 37% (523/1429). CONCLUSION: The HIV epidemic among people who inject drugs in EW&NI has remained relatively contained compared with in other countries, most likely because of the prompt implementation of an effective national harm reduction programme. However, risk behaviours and varied access to preventive interventions among people who inject drugs indicate the potential for HIV outbreaks.

Perceptions and Practicalities Influencing Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Adherence Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in England.

PrEP is highly effective for HIV prevention but requires adequate adherence. In this paper we use the perceptions and practicalities approach (PAPA) to identify factors that influenced PrEP adherence using qualitative data from the PROUD study. From February 2014 to January 2016, we interviewed 41 gay, bisexual and other men-who-have-sex-with-men and one trans woman who were enrolled in the study. We purposively recruited participants for interview based on trial arm allocation, adherence and sexual risk behaviours. The interviews were conducted in English, audio-recorded, transcribed, coded and analysed using framework analysis. Participants in general were highly motivated to use and adhere to PrEP, and this was linked to strong perceptions of personal necessity for PrEP as they felt at risk of HIV and viewed PrEP as highly effective. On the other hand, concerns about side effects and HIV resistance did inhibit PrEP initiation and adherence although this was uncommon. Practical factors such as daily routine, existing habitual pill-taking and pill storage impacted adherence. Drug and alcohol use rarely caused participants to miss doses. These findings indicate that using the principals of PAPA to unpick influencers of PrEP use, could help tailor adherence support in PrEP programmes.

Point of Care Ultrasound in the Diagnosis of Necrotizing Fasciitis.

BACKGROUND: Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a severe, life-threatening soft tissue infection requiring prompt diagnosis and immediate surgical debridement. Imaging, including a computed tomography (CT) scan, can often aid in the diagnosis, though it can prolong time to treatment and diagnosis. Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) is often used in the ED to identify soft tissue infections. The objective of this study is to evaluate the use of POCUS to identify NF in patients presenting to the emergency department. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled patients who presented to the emergency department (ED) with suspected soft tissue infection who received a computed tomography and/or surgical consult. POCUS images of the suspected site of infection were obtained by the emergency medicine physician and interpreted based on sonographic findings of NF. These findings were compared with CT scan or surgical impression. RESULTS: We enrolled 64 patients in this study. Eight were determined to be at high risk of having NF based on CT scan and/or surgical impression. All of these patients also had POCUS images interpreted as concerning for NF. Furthermore, 56 patients were classified as being low risk for having NF based on CT scan and/or surgical impression. All but one of these patients had POCUS images interpreted as not concerning for NF. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicates that POCUS can be used to identify NF with a high sensitivity and specificity.

The cost-effectiveness of case-finding strategies for achieving hepatitis C elimination among men who have sex with men in the UK.

Modelling suggests hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination is possible among men who have sex with men (MSM), with key screening groups including HIV-diagnosed MSM and MSM using pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Mathematical modelling was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of HCV case-finding strategies among MSM from the provider perspective, and to determine which interventions could achieve a 90% reduction in HCV incidence over 2015-2030. At baseline, we assumed symptomatic screening in HIV-negative MSM (including PrEP users) and 12-monthly screening among HIV-diagnosed MSM. Improved case-finding strategies included screening alongside HIV testing in HIV-negative MSM not using PrEP (PrEP non-users); 12/6/3-monthly screening in PrEP users; and 6-monthly screening in HIV-diagnosed MSM, with the cost-effectiveness being compared incrementally. Costs (GBP) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were assessed to estimate the mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with a time horizon to 2050, compared to a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY. From the baseline, the most incrementally cost-effective strategy is to firstly undertake: (1) 12-monthly HCV screening of PrEP users (gaining 6715 QALYs with ICER £1760/QALY), followed by (2) HCV screening among PrEP non-users alongside HIV testing (gaining 7048 QALYs with ICER £4972/QALY). Compared to the baseline, this combined strategy would cost £46.9 (95%CrI £25.3-£66.9) million and achieve the HCV elimination target in 100% of model runs. Additional screening incurs ICERs >£20,000/QALY compared to this combined strategy. In conclusion, HCV elimination can be achieved cost-effectively among UK MSM. Policymakers should consider scaling-up HCV screening in HIV-negative MSM, especially PrEP users, for achieving this target.

NICE public health guidance update.

This article introduces the recently published National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Guidance on 'Behaviour change: digital and mobile health interventions'. It provides an insight into the supporting evidence base, some of the key recommendations and issues that the NICE committee faced in guideline development. Particular focus is given to the impact on health inequalities.

Spotlight on COVID-19 rapid guidance: NICE's experience of producing rapid guidelines during the pandemic.

This article highlights recent guidance from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). It provides an overview of the COVID-19 rapid guidance produced since March 2020, along with an account of how the organization adapted during the pandemic, developing resources to guide practice with the limited time and evidence available. The growing COVID-19 evidence base is also considered, with reference to international initiatives supporting production of the best possible information to guide the global pandemic response. WHAT'S NEW?: Since March 2020, the NICE has developed 21 rapid guidelines with NHS England and NHS Improvement (NHSE&I) and a cross-speciality clinical group, supported by specialist societies and royal colleges. The 21 guidelines can be summarized into three groups-managing symptoms and complications, managing conditions that increase risk, and providing services during the pandemic. The rapid guidelines are part of a suite of rapid resources, including innovative technology briefings, shared learning examples and rapid evidence summaries, such as that for Vitamin D in COVID-19 (ES28).

NICE public health guidance update.

This article covers recent National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance relevant to public health, with a focus on indoor air quality. It introduces the evidence behind this guideline, and the actions that need to be taken by a wide range of stakeholders to implement the guidance and help people to achieve good air quality in their homes. It also highlights the inequalities in exposure to poor quality indoor air and identifies groups that are more vulnerable to health impacts.

Predictive factors for HIV infection among men who have sex with men and who are seeking PrEP: a secondary analysis of the PROUD trial.

OBJECTIVES: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly effective method of HIV prevention for men who have sex with men (MSM). However, uncertainty remains around the optimal eligibility criteria for PrEP, specifically whether there are subgroups at low risk of HIV for whom PrEP might not be warranted. METHODS: PROUD was an open-label waitlist trial design that randomised MSM attending participating sexual health centres in England to receive PrEP immediately (IMM) or after a deferral period of 1 year (DEF). This analysis is based on participants who were randomised to the deferred arm, when they did not have access to PrEP. HIV incidence was compared between subgroups defined by baseline characteristics. RESULTS: Overall, 21 participants acquired HIV infection over 239.3 person-years (PY) follow-up, yielding an incidence rate of 8.8/100 PY (95% CI 5.4 to 13.4). Two highly significant predictors for HIV acquisition were identified. Men with a self-reported diagnosis of syphilis, rectal chlamydia (CT) or rectal gonorrhoea (GC) in the previous 12 months had an incidence of 17.2/100 PY (95% CI 9.7 to 28.5); those reporting receptive anal intercourse without a condom (ncRAI) with two or more partners in the previous 3 months had an incidence of 13.6/100 PY (95% CI 7.9 to 21.7). The incidence rate among participants lacking both of these risk factors was 1.1/100 PY (1/87.6, 95% CI 0.03 to 6.4). CONCLUSIONS: The high HIV incidence in PROUD suggests that most participants appropriately judged their need for PrEP. Eligibility criteria for a PrEP programme can therefore be broad, as in the current guidelines. However, a recent history of syphilis or rectal CT/GC, or multiple ncRAI partners indicates a high imminent risk of HIV infection. MSM with any of these characteristics should be offered PrEP as a matter of urgency.

Preparing for PrEP: estimating the size of the population eligible for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in England.

OBJECTIVES: The size of the population of men who have sex with men (MSM) who may be eligible for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (HIV-PrEP) in England remains unknown. To plan for a national PrEP implementation trial, we estimated the number of MSM attending sexual health clinics (SHCs) that may be eligible for HIV-PrEP in England. METHODS: Sexually transmitted infection (STI) surveillance data from 2010 to 2015 from the GUMCAD surveillance system were used to estimate the annual number of HIV-negative MSM who may be eligible for HIV-PrEP in England. Based on national eligibility criteria, we identified HIV-negative MSM attending SHCs with a HIV-negative test in the past year and used diagnosed bacterial STI (past year) in this group as a proxy for condomless sex and eligibility for HIV-PrEP. We estimated HIV incidence per 100 person-years (py) in these groups in 2014. RESULTS: During 2010-2015, the number of HIV-negative MSM attending SHCs with a HIV-negative test in the past year doubled from 14 643 to 29 023, and HIV incidence in this group was 1.9 (95% CI 1.6 to 2.2) per 100 py in 2014. In the same period, the subgroup with a bacterial STI diagnosis (past year), and therefore considered potentially eligible for HIV-PrEP in this analysis, increased from 4365 (30%) to 10 276 (35%). HIV incidence in this subgroup was 3.3 (95% CI 2.7 to 4.0) per 100 py in 2014. CONCLUSIONS: In 2015, approximately 10 000 HIV-negative MSM were considered potentially eligible for HIV-PrEP based on clinic history in GUMCAD. These data were used to inform the initial recruitment target for the PrEP Impact Trial and will inform future evaluations at a population level.