RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: This article aimed to develop a predictive model to identify persons with recent gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) most likely to progress to impaired glucose tolerance postpartum. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted an observational study among persons with GDM in their most recent pregnancy, defined by Carpenter-Coustan criteria. Participants were followed up from delivery through 1-year postpartum. We used lasso regression with k-fold cross validation to develop a multivariable model to predict progression to impaired glucose tolerance, defined as HbA1c≥5.7%, at 1-year postpartum. Predictive ability was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV). RESULTS: Of 203 participants, 71 (35%) had impaired glucose tolerance at 1-year postpartum. The final model had an AUC of 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72, 0.85) and included eight indicators of weight, body mass index, family history of type 2 diabetes, GDM in a prior pregnancy, GDM diagnosis<24 weeks' gestation, and fasting and 2-hour plasma glucose at 2 days postpartum. A cutoff point of ≥ 0.25 predicted probability had sensitivity of 80% (95% CI: 69, 89), specificity of 58% (95% CI: 49, 67), PPV of 51% (95% CI: 41, 61), and NPV of 85% (95% CI: 76, 91) to identify women with impaired glucose tolerance at 1-year postpartum. CONCLUSION: Our predictive model had reasonable ability to predict impaired glucose tolerance around delivery for persons with recent GDM. KEY POINTS: · We developed a predictive model to identify persons with GDM most likely to develop IGT postpartum.. · The final model had an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.85) and included eight clinical indicators.. · If validated, our model could help prioritize diabetes prevention efforts among persons with GDM..