Do Early Relapses Predict the Risk of Long-Term Relapsing Disease in an Adult and Paediatric Cohort with MOGAD?

OBJECTIVE: Myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD) can be monophasic or relapsing, with early relapse being a feature. However, the relevance of early relapse on longer-term relapse risk is unknown. Here, we investigate whether early relapses increase longer-term relapse risk in patients with MOGAD. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 289 adult- and pediatric-onset patients with MOGAD followed for at least 2 years in 6 specialized referral centers. "Early relapses" were defined as attacks within the first 12 months from onset, with "very early relapses" defined within 30 to 90 days from onset and "delayed early relapses" defined within 90 to 365 days. "Long-term relapses" were defined as relapses beyond 12 months. Cox regression modeling and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were used to estimate the long-term relapse risk and rate. RESULTS: Sixty-seven patients (23.2%) had early relapses with a median number of 1 event. Univariate analysis revealed an elevated risk for long-term relapses if any "early relapses" were present (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.11, p < 0.001), whether occurring during the first 3 months (HR = 2.70, p < 0.001) or the remaining 9 months (HR = 1.88, p = 0.001), with similar results yielded in the multivariate analysis. In children with onset below aged 12 years, only delayed early relapses were associated with an increased risk of long-term relapses (HR = 2.64, p = 0.026). INTERPRETATION: The presence of very early relapses and delayed early relapses within 12 months of onset in patients with MOGAD increases the risk of long-term relapsing disease, whereas a relapse within 90 days appears not to indicate a chronic inflammatory process in young pediatric-onset disease. ANN NEUROL 2023;94:508-517.

Eligibility for antiamyloid treatment: preparing for disease-modifying therapies for Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: Disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for Alzheimer's disease (AD) have early evidence of efficacy. Widespread delivery of DMTs will require major service reconfiguration. Treatment pathways will need to include triaging for eligibility, regular infusions and baseline and follow-up MRI scanning. A critical step in planning is provision of real-world estimates of patients likely to be eligible for triaging, but these are challenging to obtain. METHODS: We performed a retrospective service evaluation of patients attending five memory services across North and East London and a national specialist cognitive disorders service. We examined the likely proportion of patients who would (1) be referred for triaging for DMTs and (2) potentially be suitable for treatments. RESULTS: Data from a total of 1017 patients were included, 517 of whom were seen in community memory services and 500 in a specialist clinic. In the memory services, 367/517 (71%) were diagnosed with possible AD. After exclusions of those in whom cognitive and frailty scores, MRI contraindications or anticoagulant use indicated they would be unlikely to be suitable, an estimated 32% would be eligible for triaging. In the specialist cognitive clinic, where additional investigations are available, 14% of those seen (70/500) would be potentially eligible for treatment. CONCLUSIONS: While a sizeable proportion of patients attending memory clinics may be referred for triaging for DMTs for AD, only a minority are likely to be suitable for these, as demonstrated in patients seen in specialist cognitive services. This will need to be considered when designing pathways for DMT delivery.

No association between oral contraceptive exposure and subsequent MS: A population-based nested case-control study in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Conflicting data exist around oral contraceptive exposure and subsequent multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: To use routinely collected primary healthcare data to explore the potential association between oral contraceptive exposure and subsequent MS in females at population level. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study using electronic primary care data, with complete electronic ascertainment from 1990. Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between contraceptive exposure and MS, without and with adjusting for age, ethnicity and deprivation. RESULTS: A total of 4455 females were included: 891 cases and 3564 controls. No association was seen between oral contraceptive exposure and subsequent MS, or between any contraceptive, combined oral contraceptive pill (COCP) or progesterone-only pill (POP) use 0-2, 2-5 or >5 years prior to MS. Conclusions: In the largest population-based study to date, we find no evidence of an association between oral contraceptive exposure and subsequent MS diagnosis.

A phase 2a open-label clinical trial to determine the effect of famciclovir on EBV activity as measured by EBV shedding in the saliva of patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Despite increasing evidence that Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) plays a causal role in MS, no treatments have been shown to reduce EBV turnover. We studied the effect of famciclovir on salivary EBV shedding in people with MS (NCT05283551) in a pilot, proof-of-concept study. METHODS: People with MS receiving natalizumab provided weekly saliva samples for 12 weeks before starting famciclovir 500 mg twice daily for 12 weeks. Twelve saliva samples were provided on treatment and 12 following treatment. A real-time qPCR Taqman assay was used to detect EBV DNA in saliva. The proportion of saliva samples containing EBV DNA was compared using the Friedman test. RESULTS: Of 30 participants (19 F; mean age 41 years; median EDSS 3.5), 29 received famciclovir, and 24 completed the 12-week course. Twenty-one participants provided at least one usable saliva sample in all epochs. Ten of the 21 had shedding in at least one sample pre-drug; 7/21 when taking famciclovir (not significant). No difference in EBV DNA copy number was seen. There were no drug-related serious adverse events. CONCLUSION: No significant effect of famciclovir on EBV shedding was seen in this small pilot study. Given the low numbers, a small effect of famciclovir cannot be excluded. Salivary EBV shedding in this natalizumab-treated cohort was lower than in previous studies, which requires replication.

Real-world persistence of multiple sclerosis disease-modifying therapies.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Treatment persistence is the continuation of therapy over time. It reflects a combination of treatment efficacy and tolerability. We aimed to describe real-world rates of persistence on disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) and reasons for DMT discontinuation. METHODS: Treatment data on 4366 consecutive people with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis (MS) were pooled from 13 UK specialist centres during 2021. Inclusion criteria were exposure to at least one MS DMT and a complete history of DMT prescribing. PwMS in blinded clinical trials were excluded. Data collected included sex, age at MS onset, age at DMT initiation, DMT treatment dates, and reasons for stopping or switching DMT. For pwMS who had received immune reconstituting therapies (cladribine/alemtuzumab), discontinuation date was defined as starting an alternative DMT. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were used to express DMT persistence. RESULTS: In 6997 treatment events (1.6 per person with MS), median time spent on any single maintenance DMT was 4.3 years (95% confidence interval = 4.1-4.5 years). The commonest overall reasons for DMT discontinuation were adverse events (35.0%) and lack of efficacy (30.3%). After 10 years, 20% of people treated with alemtuzumab had received another subsequent DMT, compared to 82% of people treated with interferon or glatiramer acetate. CONCLUSIONS: Immune reconstituting DMTs may have the highest potential to offer a single treatment for relapsing MS. Comparative data on DMT persistence and reasons for discontinuation are valuable to inform treatment decisions and in personalizing treatment in MS.

Delays in Multiple Sclerosis diagnosis (DIMES): protocol for a multicentre, observational study of multiple sclerosis diagnostic pathways in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a leading cause of non-traumatic disability in young adults. Accumulating evidence indicates early diagnosis and early treatment improves long-term outcomes. However, the MS diagnostic pathway is increasingly complex, and delays may occur at several stages. Factors causing delays remain understudied. We aim to quantify the time taken for MS to be diagnosed, and characterise the diagnostic pathway and initial care provided, in the United Kingdom (UK) and Republic of Ireland (ROI). METHODS: Delays In MultiplE Sclerosis diagnosis (DIMES) in the UK and ROI is a multicentre, observational, retrospective study that will be conducted via the Neurology and Neurosurgery Interest Group (NANSIG) collaborative network. Any hospital in the UK and ROI providing an MS diagnostic service is eligible to participate. Data on consecutive individuals newly diagnosed with MS between 1st July 2022 and 31st December 2022 will be collected. The primary outcomes are 1) time from symptoms/signs prompting referral to neurology, to MS diagnosis; and 2) time from referral to neurology for suspected MS, to MS diagnosis. Secondary outcomes include: MS symptoms, referring specialties, investigations performed, neurology appointments, functional status, use of disease modifying treatments, and support at diagnosis including physical activity, and follow up. Demographic characteristics of people newly diagnosed with MS will be summarised, adherence to quality standards summarised as percentages, and time-to-event variables presented with survival curves. Multivariable models will be used to investigate the association of demographic and clinical factors with time to MS diagnosis, as defined in our primary outcomes. DISCUSSION: DIMES aims to be the largest multicentre study of the MS diagnostic pathway in the UK and ROI. The proposed data collection provides insights that cannot be provided from contemporary registries, and the findings will inform approaches to MS services nationally in the future.

COVID-19 Vaccine Response in People with Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of disease modifying therapies on immune response to severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: Four hundred seventy-three people with MS provided one or more dried blood spot samples. Information about coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and vaccine history, medical, and drug history were extracted from questionnaires and medical records. Dried blood spots were eluted and tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Antibody titers were partitioned into tertiles with people on no disease modifying therapy as a reference. We calculated the odds ratio of seroconversion (univariate logistic regression) and compared quantitative vaccine response (Kruskal Wallis) following the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine according to disease modifying therapy. We used regression modeling to explore the effect of vaccine timing, treatment duration, age, vaccine type, and lymphocyte count on vaccine response. RESULTS: Compared to no disease modifying therapy, the use of anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies (odds ratio = 0.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.01-0.06, p < 0.001) and fingolimod (odds ratio = 0.04; 95% CI = 0.01-0.12) were associated with lower seroconversion following the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. All other drugs did not differ significantly from the untreated cohort. Both time since last anti-CD20 treatment and total time on treatment were significantly associated with the response to the vaccination. The vaccine type significantly predicted seroconversion, but not in those on anti-CD20 medications. Preliminary data on cellular T-cell immunity showed 40% of seronegative subjects had measurable anti-SARS-CoV-2 T cell responses. INTERPRETATION: Some disease modifying therapies convey risk of attenuated serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in people with MS. We provide recommendations for the practical management of this patient group. ANN NEUROL 20219999:n/a-n/a.

Characteristics of multiple sclerosis and demyelinating disease in an Asian American population.

BACKGROUND: Race and ancestry influence the course of multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVES: Explore clinical characteristics of MS and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) in Asian American patients. METHODS: Chart review was performed for 282 adults with demyelinating disease who self-identified as Asian at a single North American MS center. Demographics and clinical characteristics were compared to non-Asian MS patients and by region of Asian ancestry. RESULTS: Region of ancestry was known for 181 patients. Most (94.7%) preferred English, but fewer East Asian patients did (80%, p = 0.0001). South Asian patients had higher neighborhood household income (p = 0.002). Diagnoses included MS (76.2%) and NMOSD (13.8%). More patients with NMOSD than MS were East and Southeast Asian (p = 0.004). For MS patients, optic nerve and spinal cord involvement were similar across regions of ancestry. Asian MS patients were younger at symptom onset and diagnosis than non-Asian MS patients. MS Severity Scale scores were similar to non-Asian MS patients but worse among Southeast Asians (p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: MS severity was similar between Asian American patients and non-Asian patients. Region of ancestry was associated with differences in sociodemographics and MS severity. Further research is needed to uncover genetic, socioeconomic, or environmental factors causing these differences.

Developing evidence-based guidelines for the safety of symptomatic drugs in multiple sclerosis during pregnancy and breastfeeding: A systematic review and Delphi consensus.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is frequently diagnosed in people of reproductive age, many of whom will become pregnant following diagnosis. Although many women report an improvement in symptoms and relapses during pregnancy, symptoms such as fatigue and spasticity are commonly reported and can worsen. Prescribing medications during pregnancy and breastfeeding presents unique challenges and guidance on the use of symptomatic therapies is limited. OBJECTIVES: This paper aims to provide a consensus on the current evidence base to facilitate informed decision-making and optimise pre-conception counselling. METHODS: A list of most commonly prescribed medications for symptom management in MS was created using pregnancy and MS-related READ codes in the Welsh GP Dataset, followed by a review by MS neurologists. RESULTS: A final list of 24 medications was generated for review. Searches were performed on each medication, and evidence graded using standardised criteria. Evidence-based recommendations were developed and distributed to experts in the field and revised according to feedback using modified Delphi criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Our guidelines provide evidence-based recommendations on the safety of symptomatic therapies during pregnancy and breastfeeding for general practitioners and specialist teams working with people with MS who are hoping to embark on pregnancy or are currently pregnant. Individual risk-benefit ratios should be considered during pre-conception counselling to optimise symptom burden and minimise harm to both parent and child.

Risk of COVID-19 in people with multiple sclerosis who are seronegative following vaccination.

BACKGROUND: People with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) treated with certain disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) have attenuated IgG response following COVID-19 vaccination; however, the clinical consequences remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: To report COVID-19 rates in pwMS according to vaccine serology. METHODS: PwMS with available (1) serology 2-12 weeks following COVID-19 vaccine 2 and/or vaccine 3 and (2) clinical data on COVID-19 infection/hospitalisation were included. Logistic regression was performed to examine whether seroconversion following vaccination predicted risk of subsequent COVID-19 infection after adjusting for potential confounders. Rates of severe COVID-19 (requiring hospitalisation) were also calculated. RESULTS: A total of 647 pwMS were included (mean age 48 years, 500 (77%) female, median Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 3.5% and 524 (81%) exposed to DMT at the time of vaccine 1). Overall, 472 out of 588 (73%) were seropositive after vaccines 1 and 2 and 222 out of 305 (73%) after vaccine 3. Seronegative status after vaccine 2 was associated with significantly higher odds of subsequent COVID-19 infection (odds ratio (OR): 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34-4.12, p = 0.0029), whereas seronegative status after vaccine 3 was not (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.57-1.91). Five people (0.8%) experienced severe COVID-19, all of whom were seronegative after most recent vaccination. CONCLUSION: Attenuated humoral response to initial COVID-19 vaccination predicts increased risk of COVID-19 in pwMS, but overall low rates of severe COVID-19 were seen.

Anti-CD20 therapies in pregnancy and breast feeding: a review and ABN guidelines.

Neurologists increasingly use anti-CD20 therapies, including for women of childbearing age, despite these medications being unlicensed for use in pregnancy. Current evidence suggests that women can safely conceive while taking anti-CD20 therapy. Women should not be denied treatment during pregnancy when it is clinically indicated, although they should be counselled regarding live vaccinations for their infant. Women receiving regular ocrelizumab for multiple sclerosis should preferably wait 3 months before trying to conceive. There are few data around ofatumumab in pregnancy, and while there is probably a class effect across all anti-CD20 therapies, ofatumumab may need to be continued during pregnancy to maintain efficacy. We recommend that anti-CD20 therapies can be safely given while breast feeding. It is important to make time to discuss treatments with women of childbearing age to help them choose their most suitable treatment. Outcomes should be monitored in pregnancy registries.

Seroconversion following COVID-19 vaccination: can we optimize protective response in CD20-treated individuals?

Although there is an ever-increasing number of disease-modifying treatments for relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS), few appear to influence coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. There is concern about the use of anti-CD20-depleting monoclonal antibodies, due to the apparent increased risk of severe disease following severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus two (SARS-CoV-2) infection and inhibition of protective anti-COVID-19 vaccine responses. These antibodies are given as maintenance infusions/injections and cause persistent depletion of CD20+ B cells, notably memory B-cell populations that may be instrumental in the control of relapsing MS. However, they also continuously deplete immature and mature/naïve B cells that form the precursors for infection-protective antibody responses, thus blunting vaccine responses. Seroconversion and maintained SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody levels provide protection from COVID-19. However, it is evident that poor seroconversion occurs in the majority of individuals following initial and booster COVID-19 vaccinations, based on standard 6 monthly dosing intervals. Seroconversion may be optimized in the anti-CD20-treated population by vaccinating prior to treatment onset or using extended/delayed interval dosing (3-6 month extension to dosing interval) in those established on therapy, with B-cell monitoring until (1-3%) B-cell repopulation occurs prior to vaccination. Some people will take more than a year to replete and therefore protection may depend on either the vaccine-induced T-cell responses that typically occur or may require prophylactic, or rapid post-infection therapeutic, antibody or small-molecule antiviral treatment to optimize protection against COVID-19. Further studies are warranted to demonstrate the safety and efficacy of such approaches and whether or not immunity wanes prematurely as has been observed in the other populations.

Lower Lymphocyte Count is Associated With Increased Risk of Parkinson's Disease.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with established Parkinson's disease (PD) display differences in peripheral blood markers of immune function, including leukocyte differential counts, compared with controls. These differences may be useful biomarkers to predict PD and may shed light on pathogenesis. We sought to identify whether peripheral immune dysregulation was associated with increased risk of subsequent PD diagnosis. METHODS: We examined the relationship between incident PD, baseline differential leukocyte count and other blood markers of acute inflammation in UK Biobank (UKB), a longitudinal cohort with ~500,000 participants. We used a range of sensitivity analyses and Mendelian randomization (MR) to further explore the nature of associations. RESULTS: After excluding individuals with comorbidities which could influence biomarkers of inflammation, 465 incident PD cases and 312,125 controls remained. Lower lymphocyte count was associated with increased risk of subsequent PD diagnosis (per 1-SD decrease in lymphocyte count odds ratio [OR] = 1.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07-1.32, padjusted = 0.01). There was some evidence that reductions in eosinophil counts, monocyte counts and C-reactive protein (CRP) were associated with increased PD risk, and that higher neutrophil count was also associated. Only the association between lower lymphocyte count and increased PD risk remained robust to sensitivity analyses. MR suggested that the effect of lower lymphocyte count on PD risk may be causal (per 1-SD decrease in lymphocyte count; ORMR = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.01-1.18, p = 0.02). INTERPRETATION: We provide converging evidence from observational analyses in UKB and MR that lower lymphocyte count is associated with an increased risk of subsequent PD. ANN NEUROL 2021;89:803-812.

Early predictors of disability of paediatric-onset AQP4-IgG-seropositive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders.

OBJECTIVE: To describe onset clinical features predicting time to first relapse and time to long-term visual, motor and cognitive disabilities in paediatric-onset aquaporin-4 antibody (AQP4-IgG) neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSDs). METHODS: In this retrospective UK multicentre cohort study, we recorded clinical data of paediatric-onset AQP4-IgG NMOSD. Univariate and exploratory multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to identify long-term predictors of permanent visual disability, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of 4 and cognitive impairment. RESULTS: We included 49 paediatric-onset AQP4-IgG patients (38.8% white, 34.7% black, 20.4% Asians and 6.1% mixed), mean onset age of 12±4.1 years, and 87.7% were female. Multifocal onset presentation occurred in 26.5% of patients, and optic nerve (47%), area postrema/brainstem (48.9%) and encephalon (28.6%) were the most involved areas. Overall, 52.3% of children had their first relapse within 1 year from disease onset. Children with onset age <12 years were more likely to have an earlier first relapse (p=0.030), despite showing no difference in time to immunosuppression compared with those aged 12-18 years at onset. At the cohort median disease duration of 79 months, 34.3% had developed permanent visual disability, 20.7% EDSS score 4 and 25.8% cognitive impairment. Visual disability was associated with white race (p=0.032) and optic neuritis presentations (p=0.002). Cognitive impairment was predicted by cerebral syndrome presentations (p=0.048), particularly if resistant to steroids (p=0.034). CONCLUSIONS: Age at onset, race, onset symptoms and resistance to acute therapy at onset attack predict first relapse and long-term disabilities. The recognition of these predictors may help to power future paediatric clinical trials and to direct early therapeutic decisions in AQP4-IgG NMOSD.

Mental health of people with multiple sclerosis during the COVID-19 outbreak: A prospective cohort and cross-sectional case-control study of the UK MS Register.

BACKGROUND: People with MS (pwMS) have had higher rates of anxiety and depression than the general population before the COVID-19 pandemic, placing them at higher risk of experiencing poor psychological wellbeing during the pandemic. OBJECTIVE: To assess mental health and its social/lifestyle determinants in pwMS during the first wave of the outbreak in the United Kingdom. METHODS: This is a community-based, prospective longitudinal cohort and cross-sectional case-control online questionnaire study. It includes 2010 pwMS from the UK MS Register and 380 people without MS. RESULTS: The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale scores of pwMS for anxiety and depression during the outbreak did not change from the previous year. PwMS were more likely to have anxiety (using General Anxiety Disorder-7) and/or depression (using Patient Health Questionnaire-9) than controls during the outbreak (OR: 2.14, 95% CI: 1.58-2.91). PwMS felt lonelier (OR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.04-1.80) reported worse social support (OR: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.18-3.07) and reported worsened exercise habits (OR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.18-2.32) during the outbreak than controls. CONCLUSION: Early in the pandemic, pwMS remained at higher risk of experiencing anxiety and depression than the general population. It is important that multidisciplinary teams improve their support for the wellbeing of pwMS, who are vulnerable to the negative effects of the pandemic on their lifestyle and social support.

The risk of infections for multiple sclerosis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder disease-modifying treatments: Eighth European Committee for Treatment and Research in Multiple Sclerosis Focused Workshop Review. April 2021.

Over the recent years, the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) has evolved very rapidly and a large number of disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) are now available. However, most DMTs are associated with adverse events, the most frequent of which being infections. Consideration of all DMT-associated risks facilitates development of risk mitigation strategies. An international focused workshop with expert-led discussions was sponsored by the European Committee for Treatment and Research in Multiple Sclerosis (ECTRIMS) and was held in April 2021 to review our current knowledge about the risk of infections associated with the use of DMTs for people with MS and NMOSD and corresponding risk mitigation strategies. The workshop addressed DMT-associated infections in specific populations, such as children and pregnant women with MS, or people with MS who have other comorbidities or live in regions with an exceptionally high infection burden. Finally, we reviewed the topic of DMT-associated infectious risks in the context of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Herein, we summarize available evidence and identify gaps in knowledge which justify further research.

Use of disease-modifying drugs during pregnancy and breastfeeding.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The fact that multiple sclerosis (MS) predominantly affects women has been recognized for many years. As the age at diagnosis is decreasing, and treatment options are becoming more complex, increasing numbers of women are facing decisions about the use of disease modifying therapy (DMT) in and around pregnancy. RECENT FINDINGS: New data are rapidly becoming available, particularly regarding the safety of therapies in both pregnancy and breastfeeding. Effective treatment and suppression of relapses is key to ensuring good outcomes in the longer term for the woman, however this must be balanced against individual risk of relapse and risks to the fetus. Women should be advised that it is possible to breastfeed while taking selected DMT. SUMMARY: In this review, we discuss evidence surrounding the safety of DMTs in both pregnancy and breastfeeding, and use this knowledge to suggest approaches to pregnancy and family planning in women with MS.

Ethnic and Socioeconomic Associations with Multiple Sclerosis Risk.

OBJECTIVE: Epidemiological research in multiple sclerosis (MS) has mainly been performed in socioeconomically and ethnically limited populations; influences on MS risk have not been studied in prospectively collected non-White populations. We set out to study the influence of previously described MS risk factors in an ethnically diverse population. METHODS: A nested case-control study was created using primary care records of >1 million individuals, >50% of whom identify as Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnic (BAME). MS cases were compared to an age- and sex-matched control cohort (1:4), and to a large unmatched cohort. Odds ratios (ORs) of disease were determined according to exposure of interest, and a multivariate model including all exposures was created. Potential pairwise interactions were considered where both indicated a significant effect. RESULTS: A total of 1,344 confirmed MS cases were included. MS OR in blacks aged <40 years was 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.81-1.62) compared to whites. MS odds in BAME current (OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.24-2.31) and ex-smokers (OR = 2.83, 95% CI = 2.14-3.72) were considerably higher than in Whites (OR = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.88-1.34; OR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.19-1.74, respectively). Prior infectious mononucleosis was associated with increased odds of MS in Blacks (OR = 4.94, 95% CI = 1.23-17.89). An increase in MS odds was seen in the least-deprived quintile (OR = 2.46, 95% CI = 1.40-4.24), but no effect across deprived quintiles was seen. INTERPRETATION: This cohort provides novel data on factors potentially driving MS susceptibility in a diverse population, one-third of whom live in poverty. Environmental exposures have differential risk across ethnicity. ANN NEUROL 2020;87:599-608.

Parkinson's disease determinants, prediction and gene-environment interactions in the UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically investigate the association of environmental risk factors and prodromal features with incident Parkinson's disease (PD) diagnosis and the interaction of genetic risk with these factors. To evaluate whether existing risk prediction algorithms are improved by the inclusion of genetic risk scores. METHODS: We identified individuals with an incident diagnosis of PD (n=1276) and controls (n=500 406) in UK Biobank. We determined the association of risk factors with incident PD using adjusted logistic regression models. We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRSs) using external weights and selected the best PRS from a subset of the cohort (30%). The PRS was used in a separate testing set (70%) to examine gene-environment interactions and compare predictive models for PD. RESULTS: Strong evidence of association (false discovery rate <0.05) was found between PD and a positive family history of PD, a positive family history of dementia, non-smoking, low alcohol consumption, depression, daytime somnolence, epilepsy and earlier menarche. Individuals with the highest 10% of PRSs had increased risk of PD (OR 3.37, 95% CI 2.41 to 4.70) compared with the lowest risk decile. A higher PRS was associated with earlier age at PD diagnosis and inclusion of the PRS in the PREDICT-PD algorithm led to a modest improvement in model performance. We found evidence of an interaction between the PRS and diabetes. INTERPRETATION: Here, we used UK Biobank data to reproduce several well-known associations with PD, to demonstrate the validity of a PRS and to demonstrate a novel gene-environment interaction, whereby the effect of diabetes on PD risk appears to depend on background genetic risk for PD.