A cost-effectiveness analysis of lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography and a polygenic risk score.

INTRODUCTION: Several studies have proved that Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) is a potential candidate for realizing precision screening. The effectiveness of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer has been proved to reduce lung cancer specific and overall mortality, but the cost-effectiveness of diverse screening strategies remained unclear. METHODS: The comparative cost-effectiveness analysis used a Markov state-transition model to assess the potential effect and costs of the screening strategies incorporating PRS or not. A hypothetical cohort of 300,000 heavy smokers entered the study at age 50-74 years and were followed up until death or age 79 years. The model was run with a cycle length of 1 year. All the transition probabilities were validated and the performance value of PRS was extracted from published literature. A societal perspective was adopted and cost parameters were derived from databases of local medical insurance bureau. Sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The strategy incorporating PRS was estimated to obtain an ICER of CNY 156,691.93 to CNY 221,741.84 per QALY gained compared with non-screening with the initial start age range across 50-74 years. The strategy that screened using LDCT alone from 70-74 years annually could obtain an ICER of CNY 80,880.85 per QALY gained, which was the most cost-effective strategy. The introduction of PRS as an extra eligible criteria was associated with making strategies cost-saving but also lose the capability of gaining more LYs compared with LDCT screening alone. CONCLUSION: The PRS-based conjunctive screening strategy for lung cancer screening in China was not cost-effective using the willingness-to-pay threshold of 1 time Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, and the optimal screening strategy for lung cancer still remains to be LDCT screening for now. Further optimization of the screening modality can be useful to consider adoption of PRS and prospective evaluation remains a research priority.

Age, period, cohort effects in trends of depressive symptoms among middle-aged and older Chinese adults.

Objectives: To investigate the effects of age, period, and cohort on the trends of depression; and to examine the influence of these three temporal effects on residential disparities in depression. Methods: Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) during 2011 to 2020, involving 77,703 respondents aged 45 years old and above. The measurement of depressive symptoms was the score of 10-question version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D 10). The hierarchical age-period-cohort cross-classified random effects models were conducted to examine trends in depressive symptoms related to age, period and cohort. Results: CES-D scores increased with age and slightly decreased at older age. The cohort trends mostly increased except for a downward trend among those born in 1950s. As for the period effect, CES-D scores decreased gradually from 2011 to 2013 followed by a upward trend. Rural residents were associated with higher level of depression than those live in urban area. These residence gaps in depression enlarged before the age of 80, and then narrowed. The urban-rural disparities in CES-D scores gradually diminished across cohorts, while the corresponding period-based change in urban-rural gaps was not significant. Conclusion: When age, period, cohort factors are considered, the age effects on depression dominated, and the period and cohort variations were relatively small. The residence disparities in depression reduced with successive cohorts, more attention should be paid to the worsening depression condition of younger cohorts in urban areas.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of 6 Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors as First-Line Treatment for ALK-Positive NSCLC in China.

Background: Lung cancer ranks first in both cancer incidence and mortality in China. The emergence of novel treatments for ALK-positive NSCLC led to an improvement in survival and quality of life for patients with advanced ALK mutation-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study sought to assess the cost-effectiveness of 6 tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs)-crizotinib, alectinib, ceritinib, brigatinib, ensartinib, and lorlatinib-as first-line treatments for ALK-positive NSCLC from the perspective of the Chinese health care system. Methods: A Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of these 6 TKIs. In this model, ALK-positive NSCLC patients were initially simulated to receive 1 of the 6 TKIs as first-line therapy, followed by different TKIs as subsequent treatment and salvage chemotherapy as last-line treatment. Survival data were sourced from the latest published clinical trials. Costs were derived from recent national health insurance negotiations and hospital information systems of selected health care facilities. Utilities for healthy states and adverse events were obtained from the literature. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis as well as scenario analysis was conducted to assess the robustness of the results. Results: Compared to ensartinib, crizotinib, alectinib, ceritinib, brigatinib, and lorlatinib demonstrated incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of -1.13, 0.39, -0.58, -0.09, and 0.35, respectively. The corresponding incremental costs were $10 677, $33 501, -$6426, $2672, and $24 358. This resulted in ICERs of -$9449/QALY, $85 900/QALY, $11 079/QALY, $29 689/QALY and $69 594/QALY, respectively. Conclusion: Crizotinib was considered to be absolutely dominated by ensartinib. Under a willingness-to-pay threshold of $38 223/QALY, ceritinib and brigatinib were cost-effective compared with ensartinib, while lorlatinib and alectinib were not cost-effective when compared with ensartinib. Overall, brigatinib emerged as the most cost-effective treatment among all the options considered.