Integrating Evidence to Guide Use of Biologics and Small Molecules for Inflammatory Bowel Diseases.

Advances in science have led to the development of multiple biologics and small molecules for the treatment of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs). This growth in advanced medical therapies has been accompanied by an increase in methodological innovation to study and compare therapies. Guidelines provide an evidence-based approach to integrating therapies into routine practice, but they are often unable to provide timely recommendations as new therapies come to market, and they have limited incorporation of real-world evidence when making recommendations. This limits the scope and usability of guidelines, and a gap remains in defining how best to position and integrate advanced medical therapies for IBD. In this review, we provide a framework for clinicians and researchers to understand key differences in sources of evidence, how different methodologies are applied to study the comparative effectiveness of advanced medical therapies in IBD, and considerations for how these sources of evidence can be used to better integrate current guideline recommendations. Over time, we anticipate this framework will allow for a transition to living guidelines and/or practice recommendations.

Placebo rates in Crohn's disease randomized clinical trials: An individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Understanding placebo rates is critical for efficient clinical trial design. We assessed placebo rates and associated factors using individual patient data (IPD) from Crohn's disease (CD) trials. METHODS: We conducted a meta-analysis of phase 2/3 placebo-controlled trials evaluating advanced therapies in moderate-to-severe CD (2010-2021). Deidentified IPD were obtained through Vivli Inc. and Yale University Open Data Access Project. Primary outcomes were clinical response and remission. Pooled placebo rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using one- and two-stage meta-analytical approaches. Regression analyses identified patient-level factors associated with placebo rates. RESULTS: Using IPD from eight induction (n=1147) and four maintenance (n=524) trials, overall placebo clinical response and remission rates for induction were 27% (95%CI=23-32%) and 10% (95%CI=8-14%) respectively, and 32% (95%CI=23-42%) and 22% (95%CI=14-33%) for maintenance, respectively. Among bio-naïve patients, placebo response and remission rates during induction were 29% (95%CI=24-35%) and 11% (95%CI=8-15%) respectively, and 26% (95% CI=20-33%) and 10% (95% CI=8-14%) for bio-exposed, respectively. During maintenance, bio-naïve response and remission rates were 41% (95%CI=34-48%) and 32% (95%CI=24-40%), respectively, and 29% (95%CI=24-34%) and 16% (95%CI=13-21%) for bio-exposed, respectively. Higher baseline C-reactive protein concentration predicted lower placebo rates, while higher baseline albumin levels and body mass index increased the odds of placebo outcomes. Increased baseline Crohn's Disease Activity Index and 2-item patient-reported outcome scores predicted higher response rates in induction, lower response rates in maintenance, and lower remission rates in induction and maintenance. CONCLUSION: Patient- and trial-level characteristics influence placebo rates in CD trials. Careful implementation of eligibility criteria, outcome definitions, and patient stratification may reduce placebo rates.

Acute severe ulcerative colitis trials: the past, the present and the future.

Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC), characterised by bloody diarrhoea and systemic inflammation, is associated with a significant risk of colectomy and a small risk of mortality. The landmark trial of cortisone in 1955 was pivotal for two reasons: first, for establishing the efficacy of a drug that remains a first-line therapy today and, second, for producing the first set of disease severity criteria and clinical trial endpoints that shaped the subsequent ASUC trial landscape. Trials in the 1990s and at the turn of the millennium established the efficacy of infliximab and ciclosporin, but since then, there has been little progress in drug development for this high-risk population. This systematic review evaluates all interventional randomised controlled trials (RCTs) conducted in patients hospitalised with severe UC. It provides an overview of the efficacy of treatments from past to present and assesses the evolution of trial characteristics with respect to study populations, eligibility criteria and study designs over time. This review details ongoing RCTs in this field and provides a perspective on the challenges for future clinical trial programmes and how these can be overcome to help deliver novel ASUC therapies.

Defining Endoscopic Remission in Crohn's Disease: MM-SES-CD and SES-CD Thresholds Associated With Low Risk of Disease Progression.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We assessed Modified Multiplier Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease (MM-SES-CD) and Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease (SES-CD) thresholds that are best associated with low likelihood of long-term disease progression. METHODS: Data from 61 patients with early Crohn's disease (CD) who participated in the CALM long-term extension study were used as the derivation cohort and validated using the McMaster inflammatory bowel disease database (n = 99). The primary outcome was disease progression (new internal fistula/abscess, stricture, perianal fistula or abscess, CD-related hospitalization or surgery) since the end of the CALM trial. Optimal MM-SES-CD and SES-CD thresholds were determined using the maximum Youden index. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses compared threshold scores of remission definitions on disease progression. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, based on the maximum Youden index, the optimal thresholds associated with a low likelihood of disease progression were MM-SES-CD <22.5 and SES-CD <4. A significantly greater proportion of patients with a MM-SES-CD ≥22.5 had disease progression as compared with patients in the derivation cohort with MM-SES-CD <22.5 (10/17 [58.8%] vs 3/44 [6.8%]; P < .001). Similarly, a significantly greater number of patients with SES-CD ≥ 4 had disease progression compared with those with a SES-CD <4 (11/25 [44.0%] vs 2/36 [5.6%]; P < .001). Compared with other clinical or endoscopic remission definitions, which demonstrated poor to fair accuracy, MM-SES-CD <22.5 performed the best for predicting disease progression (area under the curve = 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.94; P < .001). These thresholds were confirmed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: Achievement of MM-SES-CD <22.5 or SES-CD <4 in patients with ileocolonic or colonic CD is associated with low risk of disease progression and may be suitable targets in clinical trials and practice for endoscopic healing.

Resolution of rectal bleeding by day 7 in acute severe ulcerative colitis is prognostic for post-discharge corticosteroid free clinical remission and endoscopic improvement.

This study assesses two different disease activity measures, the MTWSI and the partial Mayo score, in hospitalized acute severe UC patients for prediction of post-discharge corticosteroid-free clinical remission and endoscopic improvement to help guide future considerations for disease activity assessment. In this post-hoc analysis from the TRIUMPH trial, these results suggest resolution of Mayo rectal bleeding sub-score may have high prognostic utility and could be considered as a primary endpoint for hospitalized UC trials. The study underscores the need for further research on patient-reported outcomes and endoscopic indices in larger populations for inpatient UC trials.

Delayed Ustekinumab and Adalimumab Responders Have Similar Outcomes as Early Responders in Biologic-Naïve Crohn's Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Differences in 1-year outcomes among early and delayed responders have been demonstrated with some therapies in ulcerative colitis. However, it is unclear whether similar differences exist in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) treated with biologic therapies. METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis of patient-level data from the SEAVUE clinical trial program. Ustekinumab-treated and adalimumab-treated patients with clinical response at week 8, defined as a reduction in Crohn's Disease Activity Index (CDAI) score of at least 100 points from baseline or CDAI score <150, were deemed early responders and their outcomes were compared with delayed responders (week 8 nonresponders who subsequently responded at week 16) and nonresponders (no response at week 8 or 16). The primary outcome assessed was clinical remission at week 56, defined as CDAI <150. RESULTS: A total of 373 participants (187 treated with ustekinumab and 186 treated with adalimumab) were included in this analysis. The overall rate of delayed clinical response was low in the SEAVUE clinical trial program (13.1%). No differences were observed for week 56 clinical remission among early vs delayed responders to ustekinumab or adalimumab nor were there significant differences for secondary outcomes assessed. Delayed responders to ustekinumab and adalimumab had a significant decline in C-reactive protein by week 8 when compared with nonresponders. DISCUSSION: Among patients with moderate-to-severe CD, early and delayed responders to adalimumab and ustekinumab have similar 1-year clinical outcomes. Biomarker decline can be observed through the initial 8 weeks of therapy in patients who will eventually be delayed responders, which may help differentiate from nonresponders.

Safety and Effectiveness of Vedolizumab in Elderly Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Systematic Review & Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is limited data on Vedolizumab utilization in elderly patients. Our study aims to assess the effectiveness and safety of Vedolizumab in this subset population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Databases including Cochrane Central, Embase, Medline (via Ovid), Scopus, and Web of Science were searched in August 2022 to identify studies that assessed Vedolizumab therapy in elderly patients. Pooled proportion and risk ratios (RR) were calculated. RESULTS: Total 11 studies with 3546 IBD patients (1314 elderly and 2232 young) were included in the final analysis. Pooled rate of overall and serious infections in the elderly cohort was 8.45% (95% CI=6.27-11.29; I 2 23%) and 2.59% (95% CI=0.78-8.29; I 2 76%), respectively. However, there was no difference in overall infection rates between elderly and young patients. Pooled rate of endoscopic, clinical, and steroid-free remission for elderly IBD patients was 38.45% (95% CI=20.74-59.56; I 2 93%), 37.95% (95% CI=33.08-43.06; I 2 13%), and 38.8% (95% CI=31.6-46.4; I 2 77%), respectively. Elderly patients had lower steroid-free remission rates [RR 0.85, 95% CI=0.74-0.99; I 2 0%, P =0.03]; however, there was no difference in rates of clinical (RR 0.86, 95% CI=0.72-1.03; I 2 0%, P =0.10) or endoscopic remission (RR 1.06, 95% CI=0.83-1.35; I 2 0%, P =0.63) compared with younger patients. Pooled rate of IBD-related surgery and IBD-related hospitalizations was 9.76% (95% CI=5.81-15.92; I 2 78%) and 10.54% (95% CI=8.37-13.2; I 2 0%), respectively for the elderly cohort. There was no statistical difference in IBD-related surgeries between elderly and young IBD patients, RR 1.20 (95% CI=0.79-1.84; I 2 16%), P =0.4. CONCLUSIONS: Vedolizumab is equally safe and effective for clinical and endoscopic remission in elderly and younger populations.

Prognostic Value of Fecal Calprotectin to Inform Treat-to-Target Monitoring in Ulcerative Colitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We evaluated the value of post-induction fecal calprotectin (FCP) concentration as a biomarker in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) treated with a biologic. METHODS: This post hoc analysis of the GEMINI 1/GEMINI LTS (N = 620) and VARSITY (N = 771) trials evaluated the cross-sectional accuracy of post-induction FCP in identifying endoscopic activity and histologic inflammation, and the prognostic performance of FCP in identifying patients most likely to achieve endoscopic and histologic remission or require colectomy and UC-related hospitalization. RESULTS: The cross-sectional accuracy of FCP in identifying endoscopic activity and histologic inflammation was modest (63%-79%). However, a post-induction FCP concentration of ≤250 µg/g vs >250 µg/g was associated with a substantially higher probability of achieving clinical remission (odds ratio [OR], 4.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.78-5.85), endoscopic remission (OR, 4.26; 95% CI, 2.83-6.40), and histologic remission (Robarts Histopathology Index: OR, 5.54; 95% CI, 3.77-8.14; Geboes grade: OR, 6.42; 95% CI, 4.02-10.26) at week 52 and a lower probability of colectomy over 7 years (hazard ratio, 0.296; 95% CI, 0.130-0.677) and UC-related hospitalization (hazard ratio, 0.583; 95% CI, 0.389-0.874). The association with colectomy was significant even among patients in symptomatic remission or with endoscopic improvement post-induction, and among patients with elevated FCP at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Although FCP had only modest cross-sectional accuracy in identifying disease activity, an FCP concentration of ≤250 µg/g vs >250 µg/g was associated with increased probability of achieving long-term clinical, endoscopic, and histologic remission, and reduced probability of colectomy and UC-related hospitalization (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00783718, NCT00790933, NCT02497469).

Delayed Ustekinumab Responders in Ulcerative Colitis Have Greater Inflammatory Burden but Similar Outcomes as Early Responders.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Differences in 1-year outcomes among early compared with delayed responders to vedolizumab have been shown in ulcerative colitis. However, it is unclear whether similar differences exist with ustekinumab, and what factors differentiate delayed responders from nonresponders. METHODS: This study was a post hoc analysis of patient-level data from the UNIFI clinical trial. Ustekinumab-treated patients with clinical response, defined as a reduction in total Mayo score of 30% or more and 3 or more points from baseline with a reduction in their rectal bleeding subscore of 1 or more or a rectal bleeding subscore of 1 or less, at week 8 were deemed early responders and their outcomes were compared with delayed responders (week 8 nonresponders who subsequently responded at week 16). The primary outcome assessed was 1-year clinical remission, defined as a total Mayo score of 2 or less and no subscore greater than 1. RESULTS: We included 642 ustekinumab-treated patients, including 321 (50%) early responders, 115 (17.9%) delayed responders, and 205 (32.1%) nonresponders. No differences were observed for 1-year clinical remission among early vs delayed responders (132 of 321 [41.1%] vs 40 of 115 [34.8%]; P = .233), or for other outcomes assessed regardless of induction dose. Compared with early responders, delayed responders had more severe baseline Mayo endoscopic disease (88 of 115 [76.5%] vs 206 of 321 [64.2%]; P = .015) and abnormal baseline C-reactive protein level greater than 3 mg/L (83 of 115 [72.2%] vs 183 of 321 [57%]; P = .004). Compared with nonresponders, delayed responders had a significant decrease in C-reactive protein level (F-value [degrees of freedom, mean squares] [4, 844]; P < .0001) and fecal calprotectin level (F[4, 818]; P < .0001) through week 16. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with early ustekinumab responders, delayed responders had a greater inflammatory burden at baseline. Early and delayed responders had similar 1-year outcomes. Biomarker decline observed in delayed responders can help differentiate them from nonresponders.

Predictors of Placebo Induction Response and Remission in Ulcerative Colitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: High placebo response rates in clinical trials of ulcerative colitis (UC) have been reported previously. However, data from patient-level analyses are lacking. We assessed factors associated with clinical and endoscopic placebo response among placebo-treated patients in clinical trials of UC. METHODS: We performed a post hoc analysis of pooled clinical trial data from GEMINI-1, ACT-1, ACT-2, PURSUIT, ULTRA-2, OCTAVE-1, and OCTAVE-2. Predictors were assessed in placebo-treated patients for their association with end of induction (week 6 of 8) clinical response (reduction in total Mayo score of ≥3 and ≥30% from baseline with ≥1 point decrease in rectal bleeding subscore [RBS] or absolute RBS ≤1); clinical remission (total Mayo score ≤2 and no subscore >1); endoscopic healing (Mayo endoscopic subscore ≤1); partial Mayo score of 0; patient-reported outcome 2-item remission (RBS of 0 and stool frequency ≤1), resolution of rectal bleeding, and stool frequency normalization. Predictors on univariate analyses with P < .05 were included in multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: Placebo-treated patients with normal serum C-reactive protein and albumin levels were more likely to attain clinical response (71 of 437 [16.3%] vs 49 of 660 [7.4%]; adjusted odds ratio, 2.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-5.41; P = .018). Compared with patients with a Mayo endoscopic score of 2, patients with a Mayo endoscopic score of 3 were less likely to attain clinical response (105 of 556 [18.8%] vs 179 of 675 [25.9%]; adjusted odds ratio, 0.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.68; P = .003). Similar findings were observed for clinical remission and resolution of rectal bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Biomarkers such as normal serum C-reactive protein and albumin and baseline endoscopic severity were found to affect placebo response rates in clinical trials of UC. These findings have implications for clinical trial design in UC.

Comparative Safety and Effectiveness of Biologic Therapy for Crohn's Disease: A CA-IBD Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We compared the safety and effectiveness of tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) antagonists vs vedolizumab vs ustekinumab in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) in a multicenter cohort (CA-IBD). METHODS: We created an electronic health record-based cohort of adult patients with CD who were initiating a new biologic agent (TNF-α antagonists, ustekinumab, vedolizumab) from 5 health systems in California between 2010 and 2017. We compared the risk of serious infections (safety) and all-cause hospitalization and inflammatory bowel disease-related surgery (effectiveness) between different biologic classes using propensity score (PS) matching. RESULTS: As compared with TNF-α antagonists (n = 1030), 2:1 PS-matched, ustekinumab-treated patients with CD (n = 515) experienced a lower risk of serious infections (hazard ratio [HR], 0.36; 95% CI, 0.20-0.64), without any difference in the risk of hospitalization (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.89-1.21) or surgery (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.69-1.70). Compared with vedolizumab (n = 221), 1:1 PS-matched, ustekinumab-treated patients with CD (n = 221) experienced a lower risk of serious infections (HR, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.07-0.60), without significant differences in risk of hospitalization (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.54-1.07) or surgery (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 0.54-3.72). Compared with TNF-α antagonists (n = 442), 2:1 PS-matched, vedolizumab-treated patients with CD (n = 221) had a similar risk of serious infections (HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 0.84-2.78), hospitalization (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.98-1.77), and surgery (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.27-1.47). High comorbidity burden, concomitant opiate use, and prior hospitalization were associated with serious infections and hospitalization in biologic-treated patients with CD. CONCLUSION: In a multicenter cohort of biologic-treated patients with CD, ustekinumab was associated with a lower risk of serious infections compared with TNF-α antagonists and vedolizumab, without any differences in risk of hospitalization or surgery. The risk of serious infections was similar for TNF-α antagonists vs vedolizumab.

Effectiveness and Safety of Biologic Therapy in Hispanic Vs Non-Hispanic Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Diseases: A CA-IBD Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There are limited data on outcomes of biologic therapy in Hispanic patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs). We compared risk of hospitalization, surgery, and serious infections in Hispanic vs non-Hispanic patients with IBD in a multicenter, electronic health record-based cohort of biologic-treated patients. METHODS: We identified adult patients with IBD who were new users of biologic agents (tumor necrosis factor α [TNF-α] antagonists, ustekinumab, vedolizumab) from 5 academic institutions in California between 2010 and 2017. We compared the risk of all-cause hospitalization, IBD-related surgery, and serious infections in Hispanic vs non-Hispanic patients using 1:4 propensity score matching and survival analysis. RESULTS: We compared 240 Hispanic patients (53% male; 45% with ulcerative colitis; 73% TNF-α antagonist-treated; 20% with prior biologic exposure) with 960 non-Hispanic patients (51% male; 44% with ulcerative colitis; 67% TNF-α antagonist-treated; 27% with prior biologic exposure). After propensity score matching, Hispanic patients were younger (37 ± 15 vs 40 ± 16 y; P = .02) and had a higher burden of comorbidities (Elixhauser index, >0; 37% vs 26%; P < .01), without any differences in patterns of medication use, burden of inflammation, and hospitalizations. Within 1 year of biologic initiation, Hispanic patients had higher rates of hospitalizations (31% vs 23%; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.32; 95% CI, 1.01-1.74) and IBD-related surgery (7.1% vs 4.6%; aHR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.07-3.72), with a trend toward higher risk of serious infections (8.8% vs 4.9%; aHR, 1.74; 95% CI, 0.99-3.05). CONCLUSIONS: In a multicenter, propensity score-matched cohort of biologic-treated patients with IBD, Hispanic patients experienced higher rates of hospitalization, surgery, and serious infections. Future studies are needed to investigate the biological, social, and environmental drivers of these differences.

Long-Term Outcomes of Early vs Delayed Responders to Vedolizumab and Adalimumab: A Post Hoc Analysis of the VARSITY Study.

INTRODUCTION: It is uncertain whether patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and delayed symptomatic response to therapy have as robust and durable a response as earlier responders to therapy. We compared clinical outcomes of early and delayed responders to vedolizumab and adalimumab for patients with moderate-severe UC. METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis of the VARSITY study. Patients with early partial Mayo score (PMS) remission (PMS ≤1 at week 4/6 of therapy) were compared with those with delayed PMS remission (PMS ≤1 at week 14 and not week 4/6). Differences in proportions of patients achieving week 52 clinical remission (CR) (PMS = 0), endoscopic improvement (EI) (Mayo endoscopic subscore ≤1), and histoendoscopic mucosal improvement (HEMI) (Mayo endoscopic subscore ≤1 and Geboes score highest grade <3.2) were assessed. Confounders were adjusted for using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 147 vedolizumab-treated and 110 adalimumab-treated patients attained early or late PMS remission. Those who attained early PMS remission with vedolizumab were more likely to attain week 52 CR than participants with delayed PMS remission with vedolizumab (69.1% [67/97] vs 50.0% [25/50], aOR 2.43 [95% CI 1.11-5.33], P = 0.027). Week 52 HEMI was more likely among early vedolizumab PMS remitters (63.9% [62/97] vs 40.0% [20/50], aOR 2.60 [95% CI 1.20-5.62], P = 0.015). Week 52 EI was similar between early and delayed PMS remitters to vedolizumab. No differences were observed in week 52 CR, EI, or HEMI between early and delayed PMS remitters to adalimumab. DISCUSSION: Patients with UC who achieve early PMS remission with vedolizumab have greater odds of week 52 remission compared with delayed responders.

Role of hyperbaric oxygen therapy in patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Hypoxia is a known contributor to inflammation in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), and a growing interest has emerged in pharmacologically targeting hypoxia response pathways to treat IBD. The most basic form of treatment for hypoxia is delivering higher amounts of oxygen to the intestinal mucosa. In this review, we summarize the evidence in support of hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT), a mechanism to deliver high amounts of oxygen to tissue, for treating IBD. RECENT FINDINGS: Two phase 2 clinical trials in hospitalized ulcerative colitis patients suffering from moderate-to-severe flares have demonstrated that HBOT improves responsiveness to steroids and avoidance of rescue medical and surgical therapy. Outpatient cohort studies in perianal fistulizing Crohn's disease and fistulizing complications of the pouch have demonstrated improved healing, particularly for complex fistulae. Several systematic reviews have now been completed, and HBOT has been observed to be well tolerated with low rates of adverse events. SUMMARY: HBOT may be considered as an adjunctive treatment for hospitalized ulcerative colitis flares and Crohn's disease-related fistulae. Higher quality trials are needed to confirm efficacy.

Baseline Patient-reported Symptoms Less Predictive Than MM-SES-CD for Endoscopic Remission in Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND: This analysis evaluates the association between baseline patient-reported symptom (PRS) severity in Crohn's disease (CD), including abdominal pain, stool frequency, general well-being, and achievement of clinical and endoscopic outcomes. We compared baseline PRS to baseline endoscopic scores for the prediction of endoscopic remission (ER). METHODS: This post hoc analysis of 2 clinical trials of infliximab in CD included 601 patients and evaluated baseline PRS variables (abdominal pain, stool frequency, and general well-being) as measured by the Crohn's disease activity index and their association with 6-month clinical remission (CR) (Crohn's Disease Activity Index<150), corticosteroid-free CR, and week 26/54 ER (absence of mucosal ulceration). Logistic regression models assessed the relationships between PRS and outcomes of interest. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses compared the sensitivity and specificity of the different baseline PRS compared with baseline endoscopic scores for achievement of ER at weeks 26 and 54. RESULTS: No difference was found comparing patients with higher baseline PRS to those with lower PRS in achieving 6-month CR, 6-month corticosteroid-free CR, or week 26/54 ER. Modified multiplier of the SES-CD (MM-SES-CD) at baseline demonstrated a significant ability to predict week 54 ER (area under the curve, 0.71; 95% CI 0.65-0.78; P =0.017). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline PRS in CD is not prognostic of clinical or endoscopic response. In contrast, active endoscopic disease as measured by the MM-SES-CD, more accurately predicts endoscopic outcomes. Endoscopic scores such as the MM-SES-CD may be considered for selection criteria and as a primary outcome of interest in CD trials, with PRS as a co-primary or secondary endpoint.

End of induction patient reported outcomes predict clinical remission and endoscopic improvement with vedolizumab and adalimumab in ulcerative colitis.

BACKGROUND: Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are increasingly emphasized as endpoints in clinical trials of ulcerative colitis (UC). However, the prognostic value of early improvement in PROs for long-term outcomes remains unclear. METHODS: This was a post-hoc analysis of 611 vedolizumab-treated or adalimumab-treated patients in the VARSITY trial (Clinicaltrial.gov: NCT02497469). Stool frequency (SF) and rectal bleeding score (RBS) as reported in the Mayo score at post-induction (week 6 and 14) was assessed for their association with one-year endoscopic improvement (EI), defined as Mayo endoscopic subscore <2; histo-endoscopic mucosal improvement (HEMI), defined as EI and Geboes highest grade <3.2, clinical remission (CR), defined as total Mayo score ≤2; and PRO-2 remission, defined as RBS of 0 and SF ≤1. Multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for confounders assessed the relationships between post-induction PROs and outcomes of interest at one-year. RESULTS: Patients with severe SF at week 6 were significantly less likely to achieve one-year EI compared to those with non-severe SF [aOR 0.40 (95% CI: 0.24-0.68), p < .001]. Absence of rectal bleeding at week 6 was associated with greater odds of achieving EI at one-year [aOR 2.21 (95% CI: 1.58-3.09), p < .001]. These findings were consistent across comparisons at week 14. Similar findings were observed for the outcomes of one-year HEMI, CR and PRO-2 remission. No difference was observed between the modified partial Mayo score and modified PRO-2 score. CONCLUSIONS: Post-induction PROs strongly predict the odds of CR and EI in UC and simplified evaluations can be used to assess early response to UC therapies.

Vedolizumab and Adalimumab in Biologic-Naïve Ulcerative Colitis: Comparison of Patient-Level Clinical Trial Data and VARSITY for Week 6 Clinical Remission.

BACKGROUND: Indirect treatment comparisons using patient-level data are increasing in popularity within inflammatory bowel disease research. We compared the efficacy of adalimumab and vedolizumab for biologic-naïve moderate-severe ulcerative colitis (UC) using indirect comparisons of phase 3 clinical trials and compared the results to the RCT VARSITY. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of patient-level data from 518 biologic-naïve patients with UC was performed using GEMINI-1 and ULTRA-1. Proportions of patients achieving week 6 clinical remission and clinical response were compared, and propensity score matching and multivariate logistic regression were used to account for potential confounders. These results were compared to those derived from VARSITY. RESULTS: A numerically greater proportion of vedolizumab-treated patients from GEMINI-1 achieved week 6 clinical remission compared to those treated with adalimumab [136/388 (35.1%) vs. 38/130 (29.2%)]. Similar findings were observed among the propensity score matched cohort [33/110 (30.0%) vs. 25/110 (22.7%), adjusted OR (aOR) 1.56 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81-3.02), p = 0.187]. A similar magnitude for absolute difference in the proportions of patients achieving week 6 clinical remission was observed from VARSITY in vedolizumab compared to adalimumab [131/305 (43.0%) vs. 114/307 (37.1%), OR 1.27 (95% CI 0.92-1.76), p = 0.142]. CONCLUSIONS: In this post hoc analysis, a similar magnitude in the absolute difference of efficacy at week 6 among biologic-naïve patients was observed using indirect comparisons of phase 3 clinical trial data as was observed in VARSITY. Indirect comparisons using patient-level clinical trial data could be used to inform drug choices for future head-to-head trials and guide positioning of drugs in the absence of head-to-head trials.

Comparative Efficacy of Infliximab Versus Tofacitinib for Inducing Remission in Biologic Naive Ulcerative Colitis: A Propensity Matched Study.

OBJECTIVE: In the absence of head-to-head clinical trials, indirect comparative studies are needed to help position therapies in ulcerative colitis (UC). We aimed to compare the efficacy of infliximab vs. tofacitinib for moderate-severe UC among biologic-naïve participants at post-induction. METHODS: This was a post-hoc analysis of patient-level data from four clinical trials including 659 biologic-naïve UC participants. We compared proportions of patients achieving week 8 clinical remission (CR), endoscopic improvement, and endoscopic remission. Clinical response at week 2 was also assessed. Multiple logistic regression models were adjusted for potential confounders identified as having an association with the outcome of interest on univariate analysis. Propensity scores were calculated to create a cohort of participants with similar distribution of baseline co-variates. RESULTS: Patients treated with infliximab had significantly greater odds of CR at week 8 compared to tofacitinib [88/242 (36.4%) vs. 100/417 (24.0%), aOR: 1.65 (95% CI 1.11-2.44), p = 0.013]. Endoscopic improvement at week 8 was also significantly greater among infliximab-treated patients [149/242 (61.6%) vs. 159/417 (38.1%), aOR: 2.12 (95% CI 1.45-3.10), p < 0.001]. Similar findings were observed with week 8 endoscopic remission [61/242 (25.2%) vs. 43/417 (10.3%); aOR: 2.72 (95% CI 1.66-4.46), p < 0.001]. A similar proportion of participants attained clinical response at week 2 [205/242 (84.7%) vs. 334/417 (80.1%), aOR: 1.48 (95% CI 0.93-2.37), p = 0.101]. Similar results were observed among the propensity score matched cohort. CONCLUSION: Based on the efficacy observed in this post-hoc analysis, consideration should be given to use of infliximab over tofacitinib for treatment of moderate to severe biologic-naïve UC. However, baseline characteristic mismatches persisted despite propensity score matching, and further studies are needed to confirm our findings.

Correlations Between Gastrointestinal Symptoms and Endoscopic-Histologic Disease Activity in Adults with Ulcerative Colitis.

INTRODUCTION: Discordance between gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms and endoscopic inflammation in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) is known. However, the correlations between symptoms and endoscopic and histologic (endo-histologic) mucosal healing and remains unknown. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of prospectively collected clinical, endoscopic, and histologic data on 254 colonoscopies from 179 unique adults at a tertiary referral center from 2014 to 2021. Spearman's rank was used to assess the correlation between patient reported outcomes and objective assessments of disease activity, as measured by validated instruments: Two-item patient-reported outcome measure (PRO-2) for stool frequency and rectal bleeding, the Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity (UCEIS) for endoscopic inflammation, and the Geboes score for histologic inflammation. The predictive value of objective assessments of inflammation and clinical symptoms was described using sensitivity, specificity, and positive/negative predictive value. RESULTS: One-quarter (28%, 72/254) of cases were in endo-histologic remission; of these, 25% (18/72) report GI symptoms (22% diarrhea; 6% rectal bleeding). Endo-histologically active disease had higher sensitivity (95% rectal bleeding; 87% diarrhea) and negative predictive value (94% rectal bleeding, 78% diarrhea) for clinically active disease compared to active disease on endoscopic (77%) or histologic assessment only (80%). The specificity of endo/histologic inflammation for GI symptoms was < 65%. PRO-2 was positively correlated with endoscopic disease activity (Spearman's rank 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60, p < 0.0001) and histologic disease activity (Spearman's rank 0.49, 0.45-0.53, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: One-quarter of patients with ulcerative colitis in endo-histologic (deep) remission have gastrointestinal symptoms, more commonly with diarrhea than rectal bleeding. Endo-histologic inflammation has high sensitivity (≥ 87%) for diarrhea/rectal bleeding.

Predicting endoscopic remission in Crohn's disease by the modified multiplier SES-CD (MM-SES-CD).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's disease (SES-CD) is the primary tool for measurement of mucosal inflammation in clinical trials but lacks prognostic potential. We set to develop and validate a modified multiplier of the SES-CD (MM-SES-CD), which takes into consideration each individual parameter's prognostic value for achieving endoscopic remission (ER) while on active therapy. METHODS: In this posthoc analysis of three CD clinical trial programmes (n=350 patients, baseline SES-CD ≥ 3 with confirmed ulceration), data were pooled and randomly split into a 70% training and 30% testing cohort. The MM-SES-CD was designed using weights for individual parameters as determined by logistic regression modelling, with 1-year ER (SES-CD < 3) being the dependent variable. A cut point score for low and high probability of ER was determined by using the maximum Youden Index and validated in the testing cohort. RESULTS: Baseline ulcer size, extent of ulceration and presence of non-passable strictures had the strongest association with 1-year ER as compared with affected surface area, with differential weighting of individual parameters across disease segments being observed during logistic regression. The MM-SES-CD was generated using this weighted regression model and demonstrated strong discrimination for ER in the training dataset (area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) 0.83, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.94) and in the testing dataset (AUC 0.82, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.92). In comparison to the MM-SES-CD scoring model, the original SES-CD score lacks accuracy (AUC 0.60, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.65) for predicting the achievement of ER. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and internally validated the MM-SES-CD as an endoscopic severity assessment tool to predict one-year ER in patients with CD on active therapy.