Origination of the modern-style diversity gradient 15 million years ago.

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is a prevalent feature of modern ecosystems across diverse clades1-4. Recognized for well over a century, the causal mechanisms for LDGs remain disputed, in part because numerous putative drivers simultaneously covary with latitude1,3,5. The past provides the opportunity to disentangle LDG mechanisms because the relationships among biodiversity, latitude and possible causal factors have varied over time6-9. Here we quantify the emergence of the LDG in planktonic foraminifera at high spatiotemporal resolution over the past 40 million years, finding that a modern-style gradient arose only 15 million years ago. Spatial and temporal models suggest that LDGs for planktonic foraminifera may be controlled by the physical structure of the water column. Steepening of the latitudinal temperature gradient over 15 million years ago, associated with an increased vertical temperature gradient at low latitudes, may have enhanced niche partitioning and provided more opportunities for speciation at low latitudes. Supporting this hypothesis, we find that higher rates of low-latitude speciation steepened the diversity gradient, consistent with spatiotemporal patterns of depth partitioning by planktonic foraminifera. Extirpation of species from high latitudes also strengthened the LDG, but this effect tended to be weaker than speciation. Our results provide a step change in understanding the evolution of marine LDGs over long timescales.

Scleromochlus and the early evolution of Pterosauromorpha.

Pterosaurs, the first vertebrates to evolve powered flight, were key components of Mesozoic terrestrial ecosystems from their sudden appearance in the Late Triassic until their demise at the end of the Cretaceous1-6. However, the origin and early evolution of pterosaurs are poorly understood owing to a substantial stratigraphic and morphological gap between these reptiles and their closest relatives6, Lagerpetidae7. Scleromochlus taylori, a tiny reptile from the early Late Triassic of Scotland discovered over a century ago, was hypothesized to be a key taxon closely related to pterosaurs8, but its poor preservation has limited previous studies and resulted in controversy over its phylogenetic position, with some even doubting its identification as an archosaur9. Here we use microcomputed tomographic scans to provide the first accurate whole-skeletal reconstruction and a revised diagnosis of Scleromochlus, revealing new anatomical details that conclusively identify it as a close pterosaur relative1 within Pterosauromorpha (the lagerpetid + pterosaur clade). Scleromochlus is anatomically more similar to lagerpetids than to pterosaurs and retains numerous features that were probably present in very early diverging members of Avemetatarsalia (bird-line archosaurs). These results support the hypothesis that the first flying reptiles evolved from tiny, probably facultatively bipedal, cursorial ancestors1.

Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction.

The Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction, 66 Ma, included the demise of non-avian dinosaurs. Intense debate has focused on the relative roles of Deccan volcanism and the Chicxulub asteroid impact as kill mechanisms for this event. Here, we combine fossil-occurrence data with paleoclimate and habitat suitability models to evaluate dinosaur habitability in the wake of various asteroid impact and Deccan volcanism scenarios. Asteroid impact models generate a prolonged cold winter that suppresses potential global dinosaur habitats. Conversely, long-term forcing from Deccan volcanism (carbon dioxide [CO2]-induced warming) leads to increased habitat suitability. Short-term (aerosol cooling) volcanism still allows equatorial habitability. These results support the asteroid impact as the main driver of the non-avian dinosaur extinction. By contrast, induced warming from volcanism mitigated the most extreme effects of asteroid impact, potentially reducing the extinction severity.

A Middle Eocene lowland humid subtropical "Shangri-La" ecosystem in central Tibet.

Tibet's ancient topography and its role in climatic and biotic evolution remain speculative due to a paucity of quantitative surface-height measurements through time and space, and sparse fossil records. However, newly discovered fossils from a present elevation of ∼4,850 m in central Tibet improve substantially our knowledge of the ancient Tibetan environment. The 70 plant fossil taxa so far recovered include the first occurrences of several modern Asian lineages and represent a Middle Eocene (∼47 Mya) humid subtropical ecosystem. The fossils not only record the diverse composition of the ancient Tibetan biota, but also allow us to constrain the Middle Eocene land surface height in central Tibet to ∼1,500 ± 900 m, and quantify the prevailing thermal and hydrological regime. This "Shangri-La"-like ecosystem experienced monsoon seasonality with a mean annual temperature of ∼19 °C, and frosts were rare. It contained few Gondwanan taxa, yet was compositionally similar to contemporaneous floras in both North America and Europe. Our discovery quantifies a key part of Tibetan Paleogene topography and climate, and highlights the importance of Tibet in regard to the origin of modern Asian plant species and the evolution of global biodiversity.

Climatic shifts drove major contractions in avian latitudinal distributions throughout the Cenozoic.

Many higher level avian clades are restricted to Earth's lower latitudes, leading to historical biogeographic reconstructions favoring a Gondwanan origin of crown birds and numerous deep subclades. However, several such "tropical-restricted" clades (TRCs) are represented by stem-lineage fossils well outside the ranges of their closest living relatives, often on northern continents. To assess the drivers of these geographic disjunctions, we combined ecological niche modeling, paleoclimate models, and the early Cenozoic fossil record to examine the influence of climatic change on avian geographic distributions over the last ∼56 million years. By modeling the distribution of suitable habitable area through time, we illustrate that most Paleogene fossil-bearing localities would have been suitable for occupancy by extant TRC representatives when their stem-lineage fossils were deposited. Potentially suitable habitat for these TRCs is inferred to have become progressively restricted toward the tropics throughout the Cenozoic, culminating in relatively narrow circumtropical distributions in the present day. Our results are consistent with coarse-scale niche conservatism at the clade level and support a scenario whereby climate change over geological timescales has largely dictated the geographic distributions of many major avian clades. The distinctive modern bias toward high avian diversity at tropical latitudes for most hierarchical taxonomic levels may therefore represent a relatively recent phenomenon, overprinting a complex biogeographic history of dramatic geographic range shifts driven by Earth's changing climate, variable persistence, and intercontinental dispersal. Earth's current climatic trajectory portends a return to a megathermal state, which may dramatically influence the geographic distributions of many range-restricted extant clades.

Spatial sampling heterogeneity limits the detectability of deep time latitudinal biodiversity gradients.

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG), in which species richness decreases from tropical to polar regions, is a pervasive pattern of the modern biosphere. Although the distribution of fossil occurrences suggests this pattern has varied through deep time, the recognition of palaeobiogeographic patterns is hampered by geological and anthropogenic biases. In particular, spatial sampling heterogeneity has the capacity to impact upon the reconstruction of deep time LBGs. Here we use a simulation framework to test the detectability of three different types of LBG (flat, unimodal and bimodal) over the last 300 Myr. We show that heterogeneity in spatial sampling significantly impacts upon the detectability of genuine LBGs, with known biodiversity patterns regularly obscured after applying the spatial sampling window of fossil collections. Sampling-standardization aids the reconstruction of relative biodiversity gradients, but cannot account for artefactual absences introduced by geological and anthropogenic biases. Therefore, we argue that some previous studies might have failed to recover the 'true' LBG type owing to incomplete and heterogeneous sampling, particularly between 200 and 20 Ma. Furthermore, these issues also have the potential to bias global estimates of past biodiversity, as well as inhibit the recognition of extinction and radiation events.

Modelling the climatic niche of turtles: a deep-time perspective.

Ectotherms have close physiological ties with the thermal environment; consequently, the impact of future climate change on their biogeographic distributions is of major interest. Here, we use the modern and deep-time fossil record of testudines (turtles, tortoises, and terrapins) to provide the first test of climate on the niche limits of both extant and extinct (Late Cretaceous, Maastrichtian) taxa. Ecological niche models are used to assess niche overlap in model projections for key testudine ecotypes and families. An ordination framework is applied to quantify metrics of niche change (stability, expansion, and unfilling) between the Maastrichtian and present day. Results indicate that niche stability over evolutionary timescales varies between testudine clades. Groups that originated in the Early Cretaceous show climatic niche stability, whereas those diversifying towards the end of the Cretaceous display larger niche expansion towards the modern. Temperature is the dominant driver of modern and past distributions, whereas precipitation is important for freshwater turtle ranges. Our findings demonstrate that testudines were able to occupy warmer climates than present day in the geological record. However, the projected rate and magnitude of future environmental change, in concert with other conservation threats, presents challenges for acclimation or adaptation.

Mount for spectroscopic analysis of samples under sustained tensile stress.

Spectroscopic methods offer valuable insights into the molecular and structural changes induced by stress, but existing techniques are often unable to perform real-time measurements during deformation. A novel solid open mount design is presented that enables spectroscopic investigations of materials under sustained tensile stress while maintaining crucial alignment of the optical system. The mount design allows for sample movement in response to applied strain while maintaining the position of the sample plane, ensuring consistent and reliable spectroscopic measurements. The effectiveness of the mount design is demonstrated with vibrational sum-frequency generation measurements of an elastomer, cured hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene, and a plastic, high-density polyethylene, taken before, during, and after tensile deformation. The application of this mount to other spectroscopic techniques is discussed. The ability to collect spectroscopic data during a stress event would provide valuable insights into the behavior of stressed materials.

Mega El Niño instigated the end-Permian mass extinction.

The ultimate driver of the end-Permian mass extinction is a topic of much debate. Here, we used a multiproxy and paleoclimate modeling approach to establish a unifying theory elucidating the heightened susceptibility of the Pangean world to the prolonged and intensified El Niño events leading to an extinction state. As atmospheric partial pressure of carbon dioxide doubled from about 410 to about 860 ppm (parts per million) in the latest Permian, the meridional overturning circulation collapsed, the Hadley cell contracted, and El Niños intensified. The resultant deforestation, reef demise, and plankton crisis marked the start of a cascading environmental disaster. Reduced carbon sequestration initiated positive feedback, producing a warmer hothouse and, consequently, stronger El Niños. The compounding effects of elevated climate variability and mean state warming led to catastrophic but diachronous terrestrial and marine losses.

Early Jurassic origin of avian endothermy and thermophysiological diversity in dinosaurs.

A fundamental question in dinosaur evolution is how they adapted to long-term climatic shifts during the Mesozoic and when they developed environmentally independent, avian-style acclimatization, becoming endothermic.1,2 The ability of warm-blooded dinosaurs to flourish in harsher environments, including cold, high-latitude regions,3,4 raises intriguing questions about the origins of key innovations shared with modern birds,5,6 indicating that the development of homeothermy (keeping constant body temperature) and endothermy (generating body heat) played a crucial role in their ecological diversification.7 Despite substantial evidence across scientific disciplines (anatomy,8 reproduction,9 energetics,10 biomechanics,10 osteohistology,11 palaeobiogeography,12 geochemistry,13,14 and soft tissues15,16,17), a consensus on dinosaur thermophysiology remains elusive.1,12,15,17,18,19 Differential thermophysiological strategies among terrestrial tetrapods allow endotherms (birds and mammals) to expand their latitudinal range (from the tropics to polar regions), owing to their reduced reliance on environmental temperature.20 By contrast, most reptilian lineages (squamates, turtles, and crocodilians) and amphibians are predominantly constrained by temperature in regions closer to the tropics.21 Determining when this macroecological pattern emerged in the avian lineage relies heavily on identifying the origin of these key physiological traits. Combining fossils with macroevolutionary and palaeoclimatic models, we unveil distinct evolutionary pathways in the main dinosaur lineages: ornithischians and theropods diversified across broader climatic landscapes, trending toward cooler niches. An Early Jurassic shift to colder climates in Theropoda suggests an early adoption of endothermy. Conversely, sauropodomorphs exhibited prolonged climatic conservatism associated with higher thermal conditions, emphasizing temperature, rather than plant productivity, as the primary driver of this pattern, suggesting poikilothermy with a stronger dependence on higher temperatures in sauropods.

Temporal Profile of Nonresonant Sum-Frequency Signal from Single-Crystal Silicon Depends on Crystal Orientation.

Proper analysis of vibrational sum-frequency generation (VSFG) spectra requires that the nonresonant contribution be dealt with correctly. This work shows that the temporal profile of the nonresonant SFG response varies with crystal facing and sample orientation for single-crystal Si and is significantly different than what is observed with polycrystalline Au. These considerations will affect the use of time-delay methods to experimentally suppress the nonresonant signal in broadband SFG measurements. Time-resolved or phase-sensitive SFG measurements will also need to properly account for these effects in post-processing.

Effects of paleogeographic changes and CO2 variability on northern mid-latitudinal temperature gradients in the Cretaceous.

The Cretaceous 'greenhouse' period (~145 to ~66 million years ago, Ma) in Earth's history is relatively well documented by multiple paleoproxy records, which indicate that the meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient increased (non-monotonically) from the Valanginian (~135 Ma) to the Maastrichtian (~68 Ma). Changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration, solar constant, and paleogeography are the primary drivers of variations in the spatiotemporal distribution of SST. However, the particular contribution of each of these drivers (and their underlying mechanisms) to changes in the SST distribution remains poorly understood. Here we use data from a suite of paleoclimate simulations to compare the relative effects of atmospheric CO2 variability and paleogeographic changes on mid-latitudinal SST gradient through the Cretaceous. Further, we use a fundamental model of wind-driven ocean gyres to quantify how changes in the Northern Hemisphere paleogeography weaken the circulation in subtropical ocean gyres, leading to an increase in extratropical SSTs.

Climatic controls on the ecological ascendancy of dinosaurs.

The ascendancy of dinosaurs to become dominant components of terrestrial ecosystems was a pivotal event in the history of life, yet the drivers of their early evolution and biodiversity are poorly understood.1,2,3 During their early diversification in the Late Triassic, dinosaurs were initially rare and geographically restricted, only attaining wider distributions and greater abundance following the end-Triassic mass extinction event.4,5,6 This pattern is consistent with an opportunistic expansion model, initiated by the extinction of co-occurring groups such as aetosaurs, rauisuchians, and therapsids.4,7,8 However, this pattern could instead be a response to changes in global climatic distributions through the Triassic to Jurassic transition, especially given the increasing evidence that climate played a key role in constraining Triassic dinosaur distributions.7,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16 Here, we test this hypothesis and elucidate how climate influenced early dinosaur distribution by quantitatively examining changes in dinosaur and tetrapod "climatic niche space" across the Triassic-Jurassic boundary. Statistical analyses show that Late Triassic sauropodomorph dinosaurs occupied a more restricted climatic niche space than other tetrapods and dinosaurs, being excluded from the hottest, low-latitude climate zones. A subsequent, earliest Jurassic expansion of sauropodomorph geographic distribution is linked to the expansion of their preferred climatic conditions. Evolutionary model-fitting analyses provide evidence for an important evolutionary shift from cooler to warmer climatic niches during the origin of Sauropoda. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that global abundance of sauropodomorph dinosaurs was facilitated by climatic change and provide support for the key role of climate in the ascendancy of dinosaurs.

100 million years of turtle paleoniche dynamics enable the prediction of latitudinal range shifts in a warming world.

Past responses to environmental change provide vital baseline data for estimating the potential resilience of extant taxa to future change. Here, we investigate the latitudinal range contraction that terrestrial and freshwater turtles (Testudinata) experienced from the Late Cretaceous to the Paleogene (100.5-23.03 mya) in response to major climatic changes. We apply ecological niche modeling (ENM) to reconstruct turtle niches, using ancient and modern distribution data, paleogeographic reconstructions, and the HadCM3L climate model to quantify their range shifts in the Cretaceous and late Eocene. We then use the insights provided by these models to infer their probable ecological responses to future climate scenarios at different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for 2100), which project globally increased temperatures and spreading arid biomes at lower to mid-latitudes. We show that turtle ranges are predicted to expand poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, with decreased habitat suitability at lower latitudes, inverting a trend of latitudinal range contraction that has been prevalent since the Eocene. Trionychids and freshwater turtles can more easily track their niches than Testudinidae and other terrestrial groups. However, habitat destruction and fragmentation at higher latitudes will probably reduce the capability of turtles and tortoises to cope with future climate changes.

Climatic and tectonic drivers shaped the tropical distribution of coral reefs.

Today, warm-water coral reefs are limited to tropical-to-subtropical latitudes. These diverse ecosystems extended further poleward in the geological past, but the mechanisms driving these past distributions remain uncertain. Here, we test the role of climate and palaeogeography in shaping the distribution of coral reefs over geological timescales. To do so, we combine habitat suitability modelling, Earth System modelling and the ~247-million-year geological record of scleractinian coral reefs. A broader latitudinal distribution of climatically suitable habitat persisted throughout much of the Mesozoic-early Paleogene due to an expanded tropical belt and more equable distribution of shallow marine substrate. The earliest Cretaceous might be an exception, with reduced shallow marine substrate during a 'cold-snap' interval. Climatically suitable habitat area became increasingly skewed towards the tropics from the late Paleogene, likely steepening the latitudinal biodiversity gradient of reef-associated taxa. This was driven by global cooling and increases in tropical shallow marine substrate resulting from the tectonic evolution of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Although our results suggest global warming might permit long-term poleward range expansions, coral reef ecosystems are unlikely to keep pace with the rapid rate of anthropogenic climate change.

Rapid Eocene diversification of spiny plants in subtropical woodlands of central Tibet.

Spinescence is an important functional trait possessed by many plant species for physical defence against mammalian herbivores. The development of spinescence must have been closely associated with both biotic and abiotic factors in the geological past, but knowledge of spinescence evolution suffers from a dearth of fossil records, with most studies focusing on spatial patterns and spinescence-herbivore interactions in modern ecosystems. Numerous well-preserved Eocene (~39 Ma) plant fossils exhibiting seven different spine morphologies discovered recently in the central Tibetan Plateau, combined with molecular phylogenetic character reconstruction, point not only to the presence of a diversity of spiny plants in Eocene central Tibet but a rapid diversification of spiny plants in Eurasia around that time. These spiny plants occupied an open woodland landscape, indicated by numerous megafossils and grass phytoliths found in the same deposits, as well as numerical climate and vegetation modelling. Our study shows that regional aridification and expansion of herbivorous mammals may have driven the diversification of functional spinescence in central Tibetan woodlands, ~24 million years earlier than similar transformations in Africa.

Why 'the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau' is a myth.

The often-used phrase 'the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau' implies a flat-surfaced Tibet rose as a coherent entity, and that uplift was driven entirely by the collision and northward movement of India. Here, we argue that these are misconceptions derived in large part from simplistic geodynamic and climate modeling, as well as proxy misinterpretation. The growth of Tibet was a complex process involving mostly Mesozoic collisions of several Gondwanan terranes with Asia, thickening the crust and generating complex relief before the arrival of India. In this review, Earth system modeling, paleoaltimetry proxies and fossil finds contribute to a new synthetic view of the topographic evolution of Tibet. A notable feature overlooked in previous models of plateau formation was the persistence through much of the Cenozoic of a wide east-west orientated deep central valley, and the formation of a plateau occurred only in the late Neogene through compression and internal sedimentation.

Impact of global cooling on Early Cretaceous high pCO2 world during the Weissert Event.

The Weissert Event ~133 million years ago marked a profound global cooling that punctuated the Early Cretaceous greenhouse. We present modelling, high-resolution bulk organic carbon isotopes and chronostratigraphically calibrated sea surface temperature (SSTs) based on an organic paleothermometer (the TEX86 proxy), which capture the Weissert Event in the semi-enclosed Weddell Sea basin, offshore Antarctica (paleolatitude ~54 °S; paleowater depth ~500 meters). We document a ~3-4 °C drop in SST coinciding with the Weissert cold end, and converge the Weddell Sea data, climate simulations and available worldwide multi-proxy based temperature data towards one unifying solution providing a best-fit between all lines of evidence. The outcome confirms a 3.0 °C ( ±1.7 °C) global mean surface cooling across the Weissert Event, which translates into a ~40% drop in atmospheric pCO2 over a period of ~700 thousand years. Consistent with geologic evidence, this pCO2 drop favoured the potential build-up of local polar ice.

Cenozoic topography, monsoons and biodiversity conservation within the Tibetan Region: An evolving story.

The biodiversity of the Himalaya, Hengduan Mountains and Tibet, here collectively termed the Tibetan Region, is exceptional in a global context. To contextualize and understand the origins of this biotic richness, and its conservation value, we examine recent fossil finds and review progress in understanding the orogeny of the Tibetan Region. We examine the deep-time origins of monsoons affecting Asia, climate variation over different timescales, and the establishment of environmental niche heterogeneity linked to topographic development. The origins of the modern biodiversity were established in the Eocene, concurrent with the formation of pronounced topographic relief across the Tibetan Region. High (>4 km) mountains to the north and south of what is now the Tibetan Plateau bounded a Paleogene central lowland (<2.5 km) hosting moist subtropical vegetation influenced by an intensifying monsoon. In mid Miocene times, before the Himalaya reached their current elevation, sediment infilling and compressional tectonics raised the floor of the central valley to above 3000 m, but central Tibet was still moist enough, and low enough, to host a warm temperate angiosperm-dominated woodland. After 15 Ma, global cooling, the further rise of central Tibet, and the rain shadow cast by the growing Himalaya, progressively led to more open, herb-rich vegetation as the modern high plateau formed with its cool, dry climate. In the moist monsoonal Hengduan Mountains, high and spatially extensive since the Eocene but subsequently deeply dissected by river incision, Neogene cooling depressed the tree line, compressed altitudinal zonation, and created strong environmental heterogeneity. This served as a cradle for the then newly-evolving alpine biota and favoured diversity within more thermophilic vegetation at lower elevations. This diversity has survived through a combination of minimal Quaternary glaciation, and complex relief-related environmental niche heterogeneity. The great antiquity and diversity of the Tibetan Region biota argues for its conservation, and the importance of that biota is demonstrated through our insights into its long temporal gestation provided by fossil archives and information written in surviving genomes. These data sources are worthy of conservation in their own right, but for the living biotic inventory we need to ask what it is we want to conserve. Is it 1) individual taxa for their intrinsic properties, 2) their services in functioning ecosystems, or 3) their capacity to generate future new biodiversity? If 2 or 3 are our goal then landscape conservation at scale is required, and not just seed banks or botanical/zoological gardens.

Coupling of palaeontological and neontological reef coral data improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change.

Reef corals are currently undergoing climatically driven poleward range expansions, with some evidence for equatorial range retractions. Predicting their response to future climate scenarios is critical to their conservation, but ecological models are based only on short-term observations. The fossil record provides the only empirical evidence for the long-term response of organisms under perturbed climate states. The palaeontological record from the Last Interglacial (LIG; 125 000 years ago), a time of global warming, suggests that reef corals experienced poleward range shifts and an equatorial decline relative to their modern distribution. However, this record is spatio-temporally biased, and existing methods cannot account for data absence. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to estimate reef corals' realized niche and LIG distribution, based on modern and fossil occurrences. We then make inferences about modelled habitability under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Reef coral ranges during the LIG were comparable to the present, with no prominent equatorial decrease in habitability. Reef corals are likely to experience poleward range expansion and large equatorial declines under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, this range expansion is probably optimistic in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Incorporation of fossil data in niche models improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change.