Predicting the causative pathogen among children with pneumonia using a causal Bayesian network.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia remains a leading cause of hospitalization and death among young children worldwide, and the diagnostic challenge of differentiating bacterial from non-bacterial pneumonia is the main driver of antibiotic use for treating pneumonia in children. Causal Bayesian networks (BNs) serve as powerful tools for this problem as they provide clear maps of probabilistic relationships between variables and produce results in an explainable way by incorporating both domain expert knowledge and numerical data. METHODS: We used domain expert knowledge and data in combination and iteratively, to construct, parameterise and validate a causal BN to predict causative pathogens for childhood pneumonia. Expert knowledge elicitation occurred through a series of group workshops, surveys and one-on-one meetings involving 6-8 experts from diverse domain areas. The model performance was evaluated based on both quantitative metrics and qualitative expert validation. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to investigate how the target output is influenced by varying key assumptions of a particularly high degree of uncertainty around data or domain expert knowledge. RESULTS: Designed to apply to a cohort of children with X-ray confirmed pneumonia who presented to a tertiary paediatric hospital in Australia, the resulting BN offers explainable and quantitative predictions on a range of variables of interest, including the diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia, detection of respiratory pathogens in the nasopharynx, and the clinical phenotype of a pneumonia episode. Satisfactory numeric performance has been achieved including an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.8 in predicting clinically-confirmed bacterial pneumonia with sensitivity 88% and specificity 66% given certain input scenarios (i.e., information that is available and entered into the model) and trade-off preferences (i.e., relative weightings of the consequences of false positive versus false negative predictions). We specifically highlight that a desirable model output threshold for practical use is very dependent upon different input scenarios and trade-off preferences. Three commonly encountered scenarios were presented to demonstrate the potential usefulness of the BN outputs in various clinical pictures. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first causal model developed to help determine the causative pathogen for paediatric pneumonia. We have shown how the method works and how it would help decision making on the use of antibiotics, providing insight into how computational model predictions may be translated to actionable decisions in practice. We discussed key next steps including external validation, adaptation and implementation. Our model framework and the methodological approach can be adapted beyond our context to broad respiratory infections and geographical and healthcare settings.

Modeling COVID-19 disease processes by remote elicitation of causal Bayesian networks from medical experts.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a new multi-organ disease causing considerable worldwide morbidity and mortality. While many recognized pathophysiological mechanisms are involved, their exact causal relationships remain opaque. Better understanding is needed for predicting their progression, targeting therapeutic approaches, and improving patient outcomes. While many mathematical causal models describe COVID-19 epidemiology, none have described its pathophysiology. METHODS: In early 2020, we began developing such causal models. The SARS-CoV-2 virus's rapid and extensive spread made this particularly difficult: no large patient datasets were publicly available; the medical literature was flooded with sometimes conflicting pre-review reports; and clinicians in many countries had little time for academic consultations. We used Bayesian network (BN) models, which provide powerful calculation tools and directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) as comprehensible causal maps. Hence, they can incorporate both expert opinion and numerical data, and produce explainable, updatable results. To obtain the DAGs, we used extensive expert elicitation (exploiting Australia's exceptionally low COVID-19 burden) in structured online sessions. Groups of clinical and other specialists were enlisted to filter, interpret and discuss the literature and develop a current consensus. We encouraged inclusion of theoretically salient latent (unobservable) variables, likely mechanisms by extrapolation from other diseases, and documented supporting literature while noting controversies. Our method was iterative and incremental: systematically refining and validating the group output using one-on-one follow-up meetings with original and new experts. 35 experts contributed 126 hours face-to-face, and could review our products. RESULTS: We present two key models, for the initial infection of the respiratory tract and the possible progression to complications, as causal DAGs and BNs with corresponding verbal descriptions, dictionaries and sources. These are the first published causal models of COVID-19 pathophysiology. CONCLUSIONS: Our method demonstrates an improved procedure for developing BNs via expert elicitation, which other teams can implement to model emergent complex phenomena. Our results have three anticipated applications: (i) freely disseminating updatable expert knowledge; (ii) guiding design and analysis of observational and clinical studies; (iii) developing and validating automated tools for causal reasoning and decision support. We are developing such tools for the initial diagnosis, resource management, and prognosis of COVID-19, parameterized using the ISARIC and LEOSS databases.

A surge in human metapneumovirus paediatric respiratory admissions in Western Australia following the reduction of SARS-CoV-2 non-pharmaceutical interventions.

AIM: Western Australian laboratory data demonstrated a decrease in human metapneumovirus (hMPV) detections through 2020 associated with SARS-CoV-2-related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), followed by a subsequent surge in metropolitan region in mid-2021. We aimed to assess the impact of the surge in hMPV on paediatric hospital admissions and the contribution of changes in testing. METHODS: All respiratory-coded admissions of children aged <16 years at a tertiary paediatric centre between 2017 and 2021 were matched with respiratory virus testing data. Patients were grouped by age at presentation and by ICD-10 AM codes into bronchiolitis, other acute lower respiratory infection (OALRI), wheeze and upper respiratory tract infection (URTI). For analysis, 2017-2019 was utilised as a baseline period. RESULTS: hMPV-positive admissions in 2021 were more than 2.8 times baseline. The largest increase in incidence was observed in the 1-4 years group (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 3.8; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.5-5.9) and in OALRI clinical phenotype (IRR 2.8; 95% CI: 1.8-4.2). The proportion of respiratory-coded admissions tested for hMPV in 2021 doubled (32-66.2%, P < 0.001), with the greatest increase in wheeze (12-75% in 2021, P < 0.001). hMPV test percentage positivity in 2021 was higher than in the baseline period (7.6% vs. 10.1% in 2021, P = 0.004). CONCLUSION: The absence and subsequent surge underline the susceptibility of hMPV to NPIs. Increased hMPV-positive admissions in 2021 can be partially attributable to testing, but test-positivity remained high, consistent with a genuine increase. Continued comprehensive testing will help ascertain true burden of hMPV respiratory diseases.

Urinary tract infections in children: building a causal model-based decision support tool for diagnosis with domain knowledge and prospective data.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing urinary tract infections (UTIs) in children in the emergency department (ED) is challenging due to the variable clinical presentations and difficulties in obtaining a urine sample free from contamination. Clinicians need to weigh a range of observations to make timely diagnostic and management decisions, a difficult task to achieve without support due to the complex interactions among relevant factors. Directed acyclic graphs (DAG) and causal Bayesian networks (BN) offer a way to explicitly outline the underlying disease, contamination and diagnostic processes, and to further make quantitative inference on the event of interest thus serving as a tool for decision support. METHODS: We prospectively collected data on children present to ED with suspected UTIs. Through knowledge elicitation workshops and one-on-one meetings, a DAG was co-developed with clinical domain experts (the Expert DAG) to describe the causal relationships among variables relevant to paediatric UTIs. The Expert DAG was combined with prospective data and further domain knowledge to inform the development of an application-oriented BN (the Applied BN), designed to support the diagnosis of UTI. We assessed the performance of the Applied BN using quantitative and qualitative methods. RESULTS: We summarised patient background, clinical and laboratory characteristics of 431 episodes of suspected UTIs enrolled from May 2019 to November 2020. The Expert DAG was presented with a narrative description, elucidating how infection, specimen contamination and management pathways causally interact to form the complex picture of paediatric UTIs. Parameterised using prospective data and expert-elicited parameters, the Applied BN achieved an excellent and stable performance in predicting Escherichia coli culture results, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 and a mean log loss of 0.48 based on 10-fold cross-validation. The BN predictions were reviewed via a validation workshop, and we illustrate how they can be presented for decision support using three hypothetical clinical scenarios. CONCLUSION: Causal BNs created from both expert knowledge and data can integrate case-specific information to provide individual decision support during the diagnosis of paediatric UTIs in ED. The model aids the interpretation of culture results and the diagnosis of UTIs, promising the prospect of improved patient care and judicious use of antibiotics.

Assessing the utility of routine viral surveillance performed in children undergoing autologous stem cell transplantation at a single centre.

We assessed the utility of routine viral surveillance for cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus and human adenovirus in children <16 years, undergoing autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) at a single centre over a 10-year period. A total of 85 ASCT were performed in 65 patients. Routine viral surveillance resulted in a high number of tests performed (median 20 tests per ASCT), without any clinically significant viral detections. These data support the limited clinical utility of routine viral surveillance in children undergoing ASCT. Adopting a clinically driven approach for viral testing is likely to be both cost-effective and safe.

Infectious complications and optimising infection prevention for children with cochlear implants.

AIM: To describe the clinical epidemiology of children receiving cochlear implants, as well as the management and outcomes of cochlear implant infections and adherence to infection prevention measures. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was conducted in children ≤18 years who received cochlear implants in Western Australia's tertiary paediatric hospital. Information was obtained from medical and laboratory records regarding demographics, indication for implant, implant infection and preoperative Staphylococcus aureus screening/decolonisation. Immunisation history was examined using the Australian Immunisation Register. RESULTS: Overall, 118 children received cochlear implants, with 158 devices inserted (599 cochlear implant insertion-years). An implant infection rate of 3.8% (6/158) was identified during the study period (four pneumococcal and two community-acquired methicillin resistant S. aureus infections). All required surgical management, with an overall median duration of antibiotic therapy of 37 days (interquartile range (IQR) 29-48) and median length of stay of 8 days (IQR 8-9.5). All devices were retained and there were no relapses or deaths. Half of the children who developed cochlear implant infections (50%, 3/6) were up-to-date with additional pneumococcal vaccinations and no children (0%, 0/118) received S. aureus screening/decolonisation before implant insertion. CONCLUSIONS: Favourable outcomes were achieved with cochlear implant retention; however, the treatment was burdensome for families. We demonstrate significant scope to improve adherence to existing infection prevention strategies and provide direction for optimising preventative measures in the future. These include ensuring parental education, additional pneumococcal vaccinations and S. aureus decolonisation which are delivered as an infection prevention bundle to the growing population of infants receiving cochlear implants.

Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Public Health Measures on Detections of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Children During the 2020 Australian Winter.

Public health measures targeting coronavirus disease 2019 have potential to impact transmission of other respiratory viruses. We found 98.0% and 99.4% reductions in respiratory syncytial virus and influenza detections, respectively, in Western Australian children through winter 2020 despite schools reopening. Border closures have likely been important in limiting external introductions.

Clinical experience with SUBA-itraconazole at a tertiary paediatric hospital.

BACKGROUND: Itraconazole remains a first-line antifungal agent for certain fungal infections in children, including allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA) and sporotrichosis, but poor attainment of therapeutic drug levels is frequently observed with available oral formulations. A formulation of 'SUper BioAvailability itraconazole' (SUBA-itraconazole; Lozanoc®) has been developed, with adult studies demonstrating rapid and reliable attainment of therapeutic levels, yet paediatric data are lacking. OBJECTIVES: To assess the safety, efficacy and attainment of therapeutic drug levels of the SUBA-itraconazole formulation in children. METHODS: A single-centre retrospective cohort study was conducted, including all patients prescribed SUBA-itraconazole from May 2018 to February 2020. The recommended initial treatment dose was 5 mg/kg twice daily (to a maximum of 400 mg/day) rounded to the nearest capsule size and 2.5 mg/kg/day for prophylaxis. RESULTS: Nineteen patients received SUBA-itraconazole and the median age was 12 years. The median dose was 8.5 mg/kg/day and the median duration was 6 weeks. Indications included ABPA (16 patients), sporotrichosis (1), cutaneous fungal infection (1) and prophylaxis (1). Of patients with serum levels measured, almost 60% (10/17) achieved a therapeutic level, 3 with one dose adjustment and 7 following the initial dose. Adherence to dose-adjustment recommendations amongst the seven patients not achieving therapeutic levels was poor. Of patients with ABPA, 13/16 (81%) demonstrated a therapeutic response in IgE level. SUBA-itraconazole was well tolerated with no cessations related to adverse effects. CONCLUSIONS: SUBA-itraconazole is well tolerated in children, with rapid attainment of therapeutic levels in the majority of patients, and may represent a superior formulation for children in whom itraconazole is indicated for treatment or prevention of fungal infection.

COVID-19 in the pre-pandemic period: a survey of the time commitment and perceptions of infectious diseases physicians in Australia and New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: Infectious diseases (ID) physicians perform a pivotal role in directing the response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). AIM: To assess the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on workload and the perceptions of ID physicians regarding the national response in Australia and New Zealand in the pre-pandemic. METHODS: A survey of ID physicians in Australia and New Zealand was undertaken from 3 to 10 March 2020. Respondents were asked to estimate time spent on SARS-CoV-2-related activities in February and report their agreement with statements on a 5-point Likert scale ranging from 'strongly agree' to 'strongly disagree'. We also asked about the intended use of investigational agents. RESULTS: There were 214 respondents (36% of 600 eligible participants). The median workload due to SARS-CoV-2-related activities was 34% of one full-time equivalent (interquartile range 18-68%). Less than a quarter (50, 23%) of respondents had experience managing cases, while 33% (70) had experience preparing during similar pandemics. Nevertheless, 88% (188/213) believed they were well informed when giving testing and management advice, and 45% (95/212) believed their national response was well coordinated. Additionally, 41% (88/214) were worried about becoming infected through occupational exposure. Over half (116, 54%) the respondents intended to use lopinavir/ritonavir in confirmed cases of COVID-19 with severe disease. CONCLUSIONS: ID physicians spent a large proportion of time on SARS-CoV-2-related activities. Increased staffing is required to avoid burnout. Importantly, ID physicians feel well informed when giving advice. A national body should be established to co-ordinate response. Treatment efficacy trials are needed to clarify the utility of unproven treatments.

Respiratory syncytial virus immunisation overview.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) continues to be a significant source of morbidity and mortality in both adults and children. Natural infection confers incomplete protection, permitting recurrent episodes. Treatment remains limited to supportive care. Initial endeavours to develop a vaccine resulted in an unexpected enhancement of RSV disease and increased recipient mortality. Current proposed strategies to prevent RSV infection rely on the principles of active and passive immunisation and utilise the highly conserved RSV F-protein. Maternal vaccines administered in pregnancy may provide protection; trials are ongoing. Palivizumab, a monoclonal antibody, has a moderate preventative efficacy. A similar newer longer lasting formulation appears promising. A number of other novel options are being developed and are undergoing assessment. Progress has been made, with more vaccine candidates under consideration. We are edging closer to an effective solution to prevent RSV infection. If successful, the impact on paediatric morbidity, mortality, workload and cost will be substantial.

COVID-19 and paediatric health services: A survey of paediatric physicians in Australia and New Zealand.

AIMS: COVID-19 is now a global pandemic. At the time of survey, fewer than 150 children in Australia and New Zealand had documented infection. The aim of this study was to assess attitudes, readiness and confidence in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic through an online survey of paediatric physicians and sub-specialists across Australia and New Zealand. METHODS: Multiple email list groups were used to contact paediatric physicians to undertake an online Likert scale survey between 17 and 24 March. Respondents' specialty, experience and work setting were recorded. Ordinal logistic regression was used to determine respondent factors. RESULTS: There were 542 respondents from across Australia and New Zealand: an estimated 11% of the paediatric physician workforce. A minority (36.6%) agreed that their national response had been well coordinated; the majority (92.7%) agreed that senior-level hospital administrators were taking the situation seriously. Most reported a good understanding of the natural history of COVID-19 in children, and knowledge of where to find local information. A large proportion of physicians (86.1%) were worried about becoming infected through their work; few (5.8%) reported that they would not come to work to avoid infection. Closure of school and childcares would reduce the ability to continue work at current capacity for 23.6% of respondents. CONCLUSION: Despite limited experience in pandemics, most paediatric physicians felt informed. Concern about exposure at work is common; most were willing to work regardless. The closure of schools and daycares may have an impact on staffing. Coordination and leadership will be critical.

Utilizing on- and off-line monitoring tools to follow a kinetic resolution step during flow synthesis.

In situ reaction monitoring tools offer the ability to track the progress of a synthetic reaction in real time to facilitate reaction optimization and provide kinetic/mechanistic insight. Herein, we report the utilization of flow NMR, flow IR, and other off-line spectroscopy tools to monitor the progress of a flow chemistry reaction. The on-line and off-line tools were selected to facilitate the stereoselective kinetic resolution of a key racemic monomer, which lacked a chromophore, making conventional reaction monitoring difficult. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reaction monitoring using online vs tube NMR spectroscopy: seriously different results.

We report findings from the qualitative evaluation of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) reaction monitoring techniques of how each relates to the kinetic profile of a reaction process. The study highlights key reaction rate differences observed between the various NMR reaction monitoring methods investigated: online NMR, static NMR tubes, and periodic inversion of NMR tubes. The analysis of three reaction processes reveals that rates derived from NMR analysis are highly dependent on monitoring method. These findings indicate that users must be aware of the effect of their monitoring method upon the kinetic rate data derived from NMR analysis. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A detailed mechanistic investigation into the reaction of 3-methylpentanoic acid with Meldrum's acid utilizing online NMR spectroscopy.

A thorough investigation into the mechanism of the reaction of 3-methylpentanoic acid and Meldrum's acid using online NMR spectroscopy is reported. This study is an expansion of a previous analysis of this chemical transformation in the synthesis of an active pharmaceutical ingredient imagabalin. The 3-methylpentanoic acid analogue reveals similar behavior under the reaction conditions. Online NMR spectroscopy and offline characterization experiments reveal new information about the mechanism, providing conclusive spectroscopic evidence for the previously hypothesized dimer anhydride intermediate species 3-methylpentanoic anhydride as a productive intermediate. The presence of an acyl chloride intermediate species, 3-methylpentanoyl chloride, is also revealed for the first time in this synthesis. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

NMR flow tube for online NMR reaction monitoring.

In this paper we describe the development of a 5 mm NMR flow tube that can be used in a standard 5 mm NMR probe, enabling the user to conduct experiments on flowing samples or, more specifically, on flowing reaction mixtures. This enables reaction monitoring or kinetic experiments to be conducted by flowing reaction mixtures from a reaction vessel to detection in the coil area of the NMR, without the need for a specialized flow NMR probe. One of the key benefits of this flow tube is that it provides flexibility to be used across a range of available spectrometers of varying magnetic field strengths with a standard 5 mm probe setup. The applicability of this flow tube to reaction monitoring is demonstrated using the reaction of p-phenylenediamine and isobutyraldehyde to form the diimine product.

Head-to-Head Comparison Between Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Human Metapneumovirus Bronchiolitis in the Setting of Increased Viral Testing.

We compared the epidemiology, severity and management of hospitalized respiratory syncytial virus (n = 305) and human metapneumovirus (n = 39) bronchiolitis in a setting with high respiratory virus testing (95% of admissions tested). Respiratory syncytial virus-positive infants were younger and tended to require more hydration support and longer hospital stays compared to human metapneumovirus-positive infants. Respiratory support requirements were similar between groups despite significant age differences.