EcoDiet: A hierarchical Bayesian model to combine stomach, biotracer, and literature data into diet matrix estimation.

Although quantifying trophic interactions is a critical path to understanding and forecasting ecosystem functioning, fitting trophic models to field data remains challenging. It requires flexible statistical tools to combine different sources of information from the literature and fieldwork samples. We present EcoDiet, a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to simultaneously estimate food-web topology and diet composition of all consumers in the food web, by combining (1) a priori knowledge from the literature on both food-web topology and diet proportions; (2) stomach content analyses, with frequencies of prey occurrence used as the primary source of data to update the prior knowledge on the topological food-web structure; (3) and biotracers data through a mixing model (MM). Inferences are derived in a Bayesian probabilistic rationale that provides a formal way to incorporate prior information and quantifies uncertainty around both the topological structure of the food web and the dietary proportions. EcoDiet was implemented as an open-source R package, providing a user-friendly interface to execute the model, as well as examples and guidelines to familiarize with its use. We used simulated data to demonstrate the benefits of EcoDiet and how the framework can improve inferences on diet matrix by comparison with classical network MM. We applied EcoDiet to the Celtic Sea ecosystem, and showed how combining multiple data types within an integrated approach provides a more robust and holistic picture of the food-web topology and diet matrices than the literature or classical MM approach alone. EcoDiet has the potential to become a reference method for building diet matrices as a preliminary step of ecosystem modeling and to improve our understanding of prey-predator interactions.

Climate-induced decrease in biomass flow in marine food webs may severely affect predators and ecosystem production.

Climate change impacts on marine life in the world ocean are expected to accelerate over the 21st century, affecting the structure and functioning of food webs. We analyzed a key aspect of this issue, focusing on the impact of changes in biomass flow within marine food webs and the resulting effects on ecosystem biomass and production. We used a modeling framework based on a parsimonious quasi-physical representation of biomass flow through the food web, to explore the future of marine consumer biomass and production at the global scale over the 21st century. Biomass flow is determined by three climate-related factors: primary production entering the food web, trophic transfer efficiency describing losses in biomass transfers from one trophic level (TL) to the next, and flow kinetic measuring the speed of biomass transfers within the food web. Using climate projections of three earth system models, we calculated biomass and production at each TL on a 1° latitude ×1° longitude grid of the global ocean under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We show that the alterations of the trophic functioning of marine ecosystems, mainly driven by faster and less efficient biomass transfers and decreasing primary production, would lead to a projected decline in total consumer biomass by 18.5% by 2090-2099 relative to 1986-2005 under the "no mitigation policy" scenario. The projected decrease in transfer efficiency is expected to amplify impacts at higher TLs, leading to a 21.3% decrease in abundance of predators and thus to a change in the overall trophic structure of marine ecosystems. Marine animal production is also projected to decline but to a lesser extent than biomass. Our study highlights that the temporal and spatial projected changes in biomass and production would imply direct repercussions on the future of world fisheries and beyond all services provided by Ocean.

Are we ready to track climate-driven shifts in marine species across international boundaries? - A global survey of scientific bottom trawl data.

Marine biota are redistributing at a rapid pace in response to climate change and shifting seascapes. While changes in fish populations and community structure threaten the sustainability of fisheries, our capacity to adapt by tracking and projecting marine species remains a challenge due to data discontinuities in biological observations, lack of data availability, and mismatch between data and real species distributions. To assess the extent of this challenge, we review the global status and accessibility of ongoing scientific bottom trawl surveys. In total, we gathered metadata for 283,925 samples from 95 surveys conducted regularly from 2001 to 2019. We identified that 59% of the metadata collected are not publicly available, highlighting that the availability of data is the most important challenge to assess species redistributions under global climate change. Given that the primary purpose of surveys is to provide independent data to inform stock assessment of commercially important populations, we further highlight that single surveys do not cover the full range of the main commercial demersal fish species. An average of 18 surveys is needed to cover at least 50% of species ranges, demonstrating the importance of combining multiple surveys to evaluate species range shifts. We assess the potential for combining surveys to track transboundary species redistributions and show that differences in sampling schemes and inconsistency in sampling can be overcome with spatio-temporal modeling to follow species density redistributions. In light of our global assessment, we establish a framework for improving the management and conservation of transboundary and migrating marine demersal species. We provide directions to improve data availability and encourage countries to share survey data, to assess species vulnerabilities, and to support management adaptation in a time of climate-driven ocean changes.

Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs.

Sea water temperature affects all biological and ecological processes that ultimately impact ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examine the influence of temperature on global biomass transfers from marine secondary production to fish stocks. By combining fisheries catches in all coastal ocean areas and life-history traits of exploited marine species, we provide global estimates of two trophic transfer parameters which determine biomass flows in coastal marine food web: the trophic transfer efficiency (TTE) and the biomass residence time (BRT) in the food web. We find that biomass transfers in tropical ecosystems are less efficient and faster than in areas with cooler waters. In contrast, biomass transfers through the food web became faster and more efficient between 1950 and 2010. Using simulated changes in sea water temperature from three Earth system models, we project that the mean TTE in coastal waters would decrease from 7.7% to 7.2% between 2010 and 2100 under the 'no effective mitigation' representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), while BRT between trophic levels 2 and 4 is projected to decrease from 2.7 to 2.3 years on average. Beyond the global trends, we show that the TTEs and BRTs may vary substantially among ecosystem types and that the polar ecosystems may be the most impacted ecosystems. The detected and projected changes in mean TTE and BRT will undermine food web functioning. Our study provides quantitative understanding of temperature effects on trophodynamic of marine ecosystems under climate change.

An iron cycle cascade governs the response of equatorial Pacific ecosystems to climate change.

Earth System Models project that global climate change will reduce ocean net primary production (NPP), upper trophic level biota biomass and potential fisheries catches in the future, especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, projections from Earth System Models are undermined by poorly constrained assumptions regarding the biological cycling of iron, which is the main limiting resource for NPP over large parts of the ocean. In this study, we show that the climate change trends in NPP and the biomass of upper trophic levels are strongly affected by modifying assumptions associated with phytoplankton iron uptake. Using a suite of model experiments, we find 21st century climate change impacts on regional NPP range from -12.3% to +2.4% under a high emissions climate change scenario. This wide range arises from variations in the efficiency of iron retention in the upper ocean in the eastern equatorial Pacific across different scenarios of biological iron uptake, which affect the strength of regional iron limitation. Those scenarios where nitrogen limitation replaced iron limitation showed the largest projected NPP declines, while those where iron limitation was more resilient displayed little future change. All model scenarios have similar skill in reproducing past inter-annual variations in regional ocean NPP, largely due to limited change in the historical period. Ultimately, projections of end of century upper trophic level biomass change are altered by 50%-80% across all plausible scenarios. Overall, we find that uncertainties in the biological iron cycle cascade through open ocean pelagic ecosystems, from plankton to fish, affecting their evolution under climate change. This highlights additional challenges to developing effective conservation and fisheries management policies under climate change.

When economy meets ecology, is it truly conflicted? A dashboard approach to assess the sustainability performance of European tropical tuna purse seine fisheries.

The development of an ecosystem approach to fisheries management makes the assessment of the sustainability performance of fisheries a priority. This study examines European tropical tuna purse seine fleets as a case study, employing a multidisciplinary dashboard approach to evaluate historical and current sustainability performances. The aim is to enhance comprehension of the interconnected dimensions of sustainability and pinpoint management policy priorities. Using 18 indicators, we assessed the environmental, economic and social sustainability performances of European tropical tuna purse seine fleets, comparing them with other industrial tropical tuna fishing fleets in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The analysis also explored the temporal trend of sustainability performance for European tuna purse seiners from 2009 to 2019. Our results suggest that, compared with gillnetters and longliners, purse seiners and baitboats have a greater species-based selectivity, thereby catching fewer endangered, threatened or protected species, but a lower mature tuna catch rate, thus capturing more juveniles. We identify likely gaps in bycatch data reported by fishing on fish aggregating devices (FADs), due to results regarding selectivity and discard rates that appear inconsistent in the light of the scientific literature. The greater use of FADs, likely caused by the global tuna market, by purse seiner seems result in decreased ecological performances, as suggested by an increased carbon footprint per tonne landed. At the same time, it implies a better economic performance on the short-term, with higher net profit, energy efficiency (fuel consumed relative to monetary value created) and catch. For our case study, Ecology and Economy might seem to be in conflict for short-term perspective. However, consideration of the long-term impacts of FAD fishing and market incentives for fishing on free schools should lead purse seiner fleets to reduce drifting FAD fishing and promote more sustainable fishing practices.

Trophic amplification: A model intercomparison of climate driven changes in marine food webs.

Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due to climate driven changes in ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that the magnitude of the decline in primary production on apex predators could be amplified through the trophodynamics of marine food webs, leading to larger decreases in the biomass of predators relative to the decrease in primary production, a mechanism called trophic amplification. We compared relative changes in producer and consumer biomass or production in the global ocean to assess the extent of trophic amplification. We used simulations from nine marine ecosystem models (MEMs) from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Models Intercomparison Project forced by two Earth System Models under the high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) and a scenario of no fishing. Globally, total consumer biomass is projected to decrease by 16.7 ± 9.5% more than net primary production (NPP) by 2090-2099 relative to 1995-2014, with substantial variations among MEMs and regions. Total consumer biomass is projected to decrease almost everywhere in the ocean (80% of the world's oceans) in the model ensemble. In 40% of the world's oceans, consumer biomass was projected to decrease more than NPP. Additionally, in another 36% of the world's oceans consumer biomass is expected to decrease even as projected NPP increases. By analysing the biomass response within food webs in available MEMs, we found that model parameters and structures contributed to more complex responses than a consistent amplification of climate impacts of higher trophic levels. Our study provides additional insights into the ecological mechanisms that will impact marine ecosystems, thereby informing model and scenario development.

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities.

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Energy Flow Through Marine Ecosystems: Confronting Transfer Efficiency.

Transfer efficiency is the proportion of energy passed between nodes in food webs. It is an emergent, unitless property that is difficult to measure, and responds dynamically to environmental and ecosystem changes. Because the consequences of changes in transfer efficiency compound through ecosystems, slight variations can have large effects on food availability for top predators. Here, we review the processes controlling transfer efficiency, approaches to estimate it, and known variations across ocean biomes. Both process-level analysis and observed macroscale variations suggest that ecosystem-scale transfer efficiency is highly variable, impacted by fishing, and will decline with climate change. It is important that we more fully resolve the processes controlling transfer efficiency in models to effectively anticipate changes in marine ecosystems and fisheries resources.

Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems.

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Global marine primary production constrains fisheries catches.

Primary production must constrain the amount of fish and invertebrates available to expanding fisheries; however the degree of limitation has only been demonstrated at regional scales to date. Here we show that phytoplanktonic primary production, estimated from an ocean-colour satellite (SeaWiFS), is related to global fisheries catches at the scale of Large Marine Ecosystems, while accounting for temperature and ecological factors such as ecosystem size and type, species richness, animal body size, and the degree and nature of fisheries exploitation. Indeed we show that global fisheries catches since 1950 have been increasingly constrained by the amount of primary production. The primary production appropriated by current global fisheries is 17-112% higher than that appropriated by sustainable fisheries. Global primary production appears to be declining, in some part due to climate variability and change, with consequences for the near future fisheries catches.

Environmental life cycle assessment of seafood production: A case study of trawler catches in Tunisia.

The Gulf of Gabes is one of the most productive fishery areas in the southern Mediterranean Sea. It is archetypal of an ecosystem in which the effects of fisheries are most pronounced. Demersal trawling is the main fishing activity in the Gulf of Gabes. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was applied to assess the environmental performance landing 1t of seafood with wooden demersal trawlers in the Gulf of Gabes. Impact categories included in the study were abiotic depletion potential (ADP), acidification potential (AP), eutrophication potential (EP), global warming potential (GWP), ozone depletion potential (ODP), photochemical oxidant formation potential (POFP), human toxicity potential (HTP), marine eco-toxicity potential (METP), terrestrial eco-toxicity potential (TETP), land occupation potential (LOP), and total cumulative energy demand (TCED). Demersal trawlers were classified based on their impact intensity. Results showed that 70% of the vessels had relatively low impacts. Impact intensity was proportional to the amount of fuel consumed to land 1t of seafood. Ships that fished less had the highest impacts per ton, due to lower fishing effort and catch per unit effort. This is likely to typify vessels that target highly valuable species such as shrimp. Onboard vessel activities contributed most to different environmental impacts (AP, EP, GWP and POFP), related to the high energy use of this fishery. Several impacts (ADP, ODP, METP, LOP and TCED) were associated mainly with fuel and lubricating oil production. Therefore, improvements must focus on minimizing fuel consumption. LCA is a valuable tool for assessing how to increase environmental sustainability of demersal trawling and it can help stakeholders identify the main operational issues that require improvement.

Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs.

The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI) measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI) quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950-2010 time-periods. Global trends were identified and cluster analyses were used to characterize the variability of trends between ecosystems. Results showed that the most common pattern over the study period is a global decrease in TCI, while the ECI indicator tends to increase. Thus, changes in species assemblages would induce faster and apparently more efficient biomass transfers in marine food webs. Results also suggested that the main driver of change over that period had been the large increase in fishing pressure. The largest changes occurred in ecosystems where 'fishing down the marine food web' are most intensive.

Assessing the contribution of marine protected areas to the trophic functioning of ecosystems: a model for the Banc d'Arguin and the Mauritanian shelf.

Most modelling studies addressed the effectiveness of marine protected areas (MPA) for fisheries sustainability through single species approach. Only a few models analysed the potential benefits of MPAs at the ecosystem level, estimating the potential export of fish biomass from the reserve or analysing the trophic relationships between organisms inside and outside the MPA. Here, we propose to use food web models to assess the contribution of a MPA to the trophic functioning of a larger ecosystem. This approach is applied to the Banc d'Arguin National Park, a large MPA located on the Mauritanian shelf. The ecosystem was modeled using Ecopath with Ecosim, a model that accounts for fisheries, food web structure, and some aspects of the spatial distribution of species, for the period 1991-2006. Gaps in knowledge and uncertainty were taken into account by building three different models. Results showed that the Banc d'Arguin contributes about 9 to 13% to the total consumption, is supporting about 23% of the total production and 18% of the total catch of the Mauritanian shelf ecosystem, and up to 50% for coastal fish. Of the 29 exploited groups, 15 depend on the Banc for more than 30% of their direct or indirect consumptions. Between 1991 and 2006, the fishing pressure increased leading to a decrease in biomass and the catch of high trophic levels, confirming their overall overexploitation. Ecosim simulations showed that adding a new fleet in the Banc d'Arguin would have large impacts on the species with a high reliance on the Banc for food, resulting in a 23% decrease in the current outside MPA catches. We conclude on the usefulness of food web models to assess MPAs contribution to larger ecosystem functioning.

European Union's public fishing access agreements in developing countries.

The imperative to increase seafood supply while dealing with its overfished local stocks has pushed the European Union (EU) and its Member States to fish in the Exclusive Economic Zones of other countries through various types of fishing agreements for decades. Although European public fishing agreements are commented on regularly and considered to be transparent, this is the first global and historical study on the fee regime that governs them. We find that the EU has subsidized these agreements at an average of 75% of their cost (financial contribution agreed upon in the agreements), while private European business interests paid the equivalent of 1.5% of the value of the fish that was eventually landed. This raises questions of fisheries benefit-sharing and resource-use equity that the EU has the potential to address during the nearly completed reform of its Common Fisheries Policy.